Coronavirus and the weather

[Mike Poole]

I never thought I would click on the 'create new topic' button, but I have because I think that with the very serious coronavirus outbreak, the impact of the weather on that is potentially significant and I think we need to discuss it outside of the usual threads.

I've said in the MOD that I'm struggling with this situation and I think others will be too.  The government strategy, informed by science, seems to be to push the peak of this crisis into the summer and flatten it.  Does that stack up?  I would be interested in what people think.  

If, and it is if, temperature is the key factor, here's the 2m temperatures at the warmest part of the day, first in the NH:

And here for SH, Australia:

There is a big difference obviously, but what I think we need to keep an eye on is how infection rates change in different parts of the world, here's the current picture it seems:

I think we need to watch the number of cases in places like Australia to get a better picture of how it might pan out closer to home in the warmer months for us.   

But I'm not an expert on this at all, I'd be interested in the thoughts of everyone, at this very difficult time.

[Midlands Ice Age]

Mike...

Interesting topic.

I have heard from my son (though not seen it), that someone on twitterland had found a direct link (for the very initial 

spread), that it was via  spread out from Wuhan and was  strongly related to temperature.

Apparently the virus spread most rapidly along the lines of the 7 - 11C isotherm through Asia and into Irag. (again around the same temp?). Remember that this was from Twitter and I did not see it!!

Clearly this has been overtaken by more dominant factors such as air travel and  probably road, but the initial spread was mainly westwards and many places such as Thailand, Singapore and Hong Kong, after initial early penetration seem to have moderated a great deal. (higher temperature effect?)

Coming up to today, we see that having arrived in Europe and western Asia, it used direct human transmission as its means of spread. Why Italy and Irag so bad? Well I seem to remember that both places had an influx of people for religious type festivals at exactly the same time as the virus arrived. These involved much person to person contact, and then transferred it to other local areas, before it was noticed. Temperatures in Italy and Iraq at the time was in the  suggested range.

Apparently the Lombardy one was a strange religious sect, involving around 500 people.

Why has the Vatican city not had an outbreak?, perhaps it is an effect of the higher temps in Rome?

I seem to remember that there was something similar that  was  happening in one of the  SE Asian countries, but that was cancelled?  or did it take place and have little effect?  Again that would support the theory.

Could the equatorial belt have acted as a barrier to the spread of the virus into the southern hemisphere?

I think there is some reason for optimism about our summer  (assuming we get one), but our governments decision to delay and get the help of the supposed affect(?), seems vey high risk to me.

I agree that a lot of the above could be speculation, but it is very early yet and I think  the truth will be revealed in the next 2 months.

MIA

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

@Midlands Ice Age it is the 5-11C range and 47-79% humidity, though they will need to keep monitoring and updating findings to be confident and also any possible (and hoped for by many) effects that warmer/hot weather has on the virus.

 

Personally I don't think any potential upcoming colder weather will do us any favours with flu like viruses being most common in colder weather, will be interesting (if that's the right word) to see how much that increases cases.

[Midlands Ice Age]

Thanks KW for the above..

It clearly plays some part. Also remember that the above are average figures and a range of between +/-5C could be expected.

I think that it is  realistic evidence that  at higher  temperatures the virus does not find it so easy to replicate.

MIA

 

[Sunny76]

I’ve decided from this weekend, not to go to work from Monday. I work in security, in a corporate environment, but have already chosen to stay at home.

Whether this leads to me losing my job is another thing. 

[stainesbloke]

20 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

I’ve decided from this weekend, not to go to work from Monday. I work in security, in a corporate environment, but have already chosen to stay at home.

Whether this leads to me losing my job is another thing. 

Are you ill or showing symptoms? If not, there’s no need for you to stay at home. 

[Sunny76]

7 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Are you ill or showing symptoms? If not, there’s no need for you to stay at home. 

No, I’m not sick, but my main concern is having to use the tube for commuting to my job for 40 minutes each way. Germs thrive on public transport.

 

[Sunny76]

I don’t want to wait until my building make a decision, by which time it’s too late and I’ve already become sick.

[stainesbloke]

1 minute ago, Sunny76 said:

No, I’m not sick, but my main concern is having to use the tube for commuting to my job for 40 minutes each way. Germs thrive on public transport.

 

Yes but unless you’re over 70 and have serious underlying health issues, this virus won’t cause you any major problems with your health. The media hype is not helping. 

Edited March 14, 2020 by stainesbloke

[Sunny76]

7 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Yes but unless you’re over 70 and have serious underlying health issues, this virus won’t cause you any major problems with your health. The media hype is not helping. 

I have an overactive thyroid, but I haven’t suffered from any symptoms for 3 years. I take herbal remedies for it.

My main concern is, I don’t want to catch it, as that will result in having to stay at home for 2 weeks. Would rather stayed isolated and be fit and healthy.

Do you have any suggestions? 
 

[stainesbloke]

5 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

I have an overactive thyroid, but I haven’t suffered from any symptoms for 3 years. I take herbal remedies for it.

My main concern is, I don’t want to catch it, as that will result in having to stay at home for 2 weeks. Would rather stayed isolated and be fit and healthy.

Do you have any suggestions? 
 

Latest guidance is only stay at home if you get a dry cough and fever, and then for 7 days, not 14. Keep your immune system topped up in the meantime, vitamin C, garlic and cod liver oil will help. And don’t panic

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Latest guidance is only stay at home if you get a dry cough and fever, and then for 7 days, not 14. Keep your immune system topped up in the meantime, vitamin C, garlic and cod liver oil will help. And don’t panic

Vitamin D, I get from sunshine and garlic tastes good (but no vampires nearby!); my vitamin C comes from eating ordinary food.

PS: Don't tell 'em about the sunshine...or they'll start panic-buying that too!

[Mike Poole]

3 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

@Midlands Ice Age it is the 5-11C range and 47-79% humidity, though they will need to keep monitoring and updating findings to be confident and also any possible (and hoped for by many) effects that warmer/hot weather has on the virus.

 

Personally I don't think any potential upcoming colder weather will do us any favours with flu like viruses being most common in colder weather, will be interesting (if that's the right word) to see how much that increases cases.

That is very interesting, as are the comments by @Midlands Ice Age, it doesn't put the UK in a good place now, but that may hopefully change as we move towards the summer.

I actually don't think we should fear a cold snap, if one were to occur.  Its difficult to know with flu because I get flu probably less than once a decade, but I would suggest that with the common cold, which is a type of coronavirus, a range of weather conditions that peak transmission occurs is likely, rather than colder is always worse, hotter better. 

My experience with the common cold in this country is that there is often a period from September to December, when many are infected, after the schools return from the summer, but in the colder (in the days when they were!) January and February, these things tended to go away.  That is not to say that such viruses are necessarily more vulnerable in cold spells, it could be simply that people interact less.  

Edited March 14, 2020 by Mike Poole

[stainesbloke]

1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

Vitamin D, I get from sunshine and garlic tastes good (but no vampires nearby!); my vitamin C comes from eating ordinary food.

PS: Don't tell 'em about the sunshine...or they'll start panic-buying that too!

Most of us need Vitamin D supplements in our vile winter climate. Good that you get it from being outdoors a lot, the best way

[Frosty_wsm]

Having asthma, along with a life long heart condition I'm certainly stressing out about this virus for what might happen to me or my elderly parents.

Regarding the advice to self isolate, ironically that's how I've lived everyday for nearly 30 years anyway since I finished work in 1992, I got diagnosed with severe social phobia shortly afterwards and I literally spend most of my time in the house & when I do go out I go out of my way to avoid people, it's a very depressing, lonely existence but I've got used to it so you could say this virus outbreak hasn't had any affect on how I'm living (existing!) day to day. 

Not sure what type of weather I'd like to see now, you'd think nice warm spring weather is likely to lead to more people getting out & about , where as a very cold easterly blast (it cold enough) might result in less people going out. 

[Summer of 95]

I have been wondering about this for a while. The area of Europe with the closest climate to the "cool and dry/humid and wet" winter/summer of Wuhan is definitely northern Italy, albeit it is not quite as hot and wet in summer. 

Some more questions/observations:

Winters in Wuhan are actually very similar to those in much of Britain, summers are completely different though.

Spain's cases are concentrated around Madrid (~5C average in January) not the coastal areas that average 10C+

Why has Turkey seemingly escaped despite being smack between Iran and Europe? Something to do with the area on the Turkey/Iran border being far too cold?

Warsaw and Kiev in particular ought to be much colder than that in winter. Another black mark for winter 2019/20 in the UK and Europe?

5-11C average can occur in any month from October to May in the CET zone. China warms up much more quickly in spring

If it switches to the S Hemisphere later in the year and still likes the same weather, most of Australia could get off lightly but New Zealand could be hit quite bad, as could southern Chile.

 

[Mike Poole]

I've been doing a bit more reading about this (only Googled stuff) and a kind of brief summary of some themes are as follows:

• A reason why the virus might not decline in the summer is the lack of immunity to it, enabling it to thrive in conditions that for example flu, which many in the populations have immunity to, might not be able to.
• A massive factor is the number of people each infected person goes on to infect....it is either exponential growth (greater than 1.0) , or exponential decline (less than 1.0).  Summer conditions are sufficiently adverse for the flu, but that is helped by the proportion of the population that already have immunity.  A worry seems to be that while this virus might not like summer (what's not to like) it doesn't deter it enough to bring that infection rate under 1.0.  
• Indications from India seem to suggest that both high temperature and humidity   together might be a deterrent to the virus.

[daz_4]

19 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

• Indications from India seem to suggest that both high temperature and humidity   together might be a deterrent to the virus.

This doesn't exactly fill me with optimism because summers in Central Europe have been dry as bone lately.

Edited March 14, 2020 by daz_4

[virtualsphere]

Interesting stuff, personally I'm sceptical the weather would have much impact as the majority of people now spend most of their time indoors in a temperature controlled environment at 16 - 22C.  e.g. Someone catches the virus at an airport from an overseas traveller, then goes home and passes it on to their family or to colleagues in the office, which would allow international spread without the virus leaving an indoor environment.  I guess if we had a warm dry period it would encourage people outdoors, which might help, as long as any restrictions on movement don't prevent this and end up being counterproductive.  In less developed countries people probably spend a greater proportion of time outside which might mean the weather is more of a factor in transmission rates?

[Interitus]

59 minutes ago, virtualsphere said:

Interesting stuff, personally I'm sceptical the weather would have much impact as the majority of people now spend most of their time indoors in a temperature controlled environment at 16 - 22C.  e.g. Someone catches the virus at an airport from an overseas traveller, then goes home and passes it on to their family or to colleagues in the office, which would allow international spread without the virus leaving an indoor environment.  I guess if we had a warm dry period it would encourage people outdoors, which might help, as long as any restrictions on movement don't prevent this and end up being counterproductive.  In less developed countries people probably spend a greater proportion of time outside which might mean the weather is more of a factor in transmission rates?

Yes, exactly this. Corralling people indoors in typical temperature and humidity is the perfect environment for virus transmission. Whilst they survive best in the liquid droplets from coughs/sneezes, it seems slightly counterintuitive but coronaviruses survive drying for some time and remain viable. Being outdoors in the open air reduces chance of transmission and also solar UV quickly inactivates them.

Number of papers written but for example see research on original SARS CoV - https://www.hindawi.com/journals/av/2011/734690/

SARS dried of plastic survived 5 days at 22-25°C 40-50% RH with only slight loss of infectivity.

Seriously should be hoping for some decent weather to help with this but of course dependent on measures on social distancing and self-isolation which come into force.

Edited March 15, 2020 by Interitus

[johnholmes]

As an 80 year old I had been a bit sceptical about not carrying on as normal, volunteer work in the local library two mornings and a fairly active social life. But watching our Health Secretary this morning has knocked my complacency a fair bit! Due to go on a coach holiday in this country 23 March.

The weather does look as if we on the eastern side will be treated, as so often in Spring and early summer to the dreaded flow off the N Sea. Possibly from about 5 days from now for maybe 4-5 days with a lot of uncertainty after that. The anomaly charts do look to support the idea of some kind of upper ridge near the UK, more likely north than south of the country, starting over or west of the meridian and edging E or NE.

As always time will tell, but please no ST laden flow with no sun!

 

 

[knocker]

1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

As an 80 year old I had been a bit sceptical about not carrying on as normal, volunteer work in the local library two mornings and a fairly active social life. But watching our Health Secretary this morning has knocked my complacency a fair bit! Due to go on a coach holiday in this country 23 March.

 

Yes I've also had to take a step back to consider things. But I'm more concerned that if we have to go into full lock down, counseling wont be readily available to counter the effects of spending too long on NW

[Mike Poole]

1 hour ago, Interitus said:

Yes, exactly this. Corralling people indoors in typical temperature and humidity is the perfect environment for virus transmission. .

There is probably a bit of a catch-22 thing here,  because viruses will evolve to be most effective at transmission in the environments that their hosts spend the most time.

There is uncertainty about this with this one because it is new, but given the conversation here so far, maybe extremes of weather may help reduce transmission, so for once in the UK, please can the weather gods deliver us from perpetual Autumn?

[Snowyowl9]

On 13/03/2020 at 23:25, Mike Poole said:

I never thought I would click on the 'create new topic' button, but I have

 

 

Well going by that and the temperatures there are still a few in africa and its got to be hot there,south america but nothing in russia fascinating,1 in ukraine

[Sceptical]

Just a little FYI.

The World Health Organisation are not convinced C19 is a seasonal virus.