COVID-19 Pandemic

[Spikecollie]

1 hour ago, Soaring Hawk said:

But there is absolutely no reason or need to get within 1, or more, metres of anyone else when out in the fresh air walking our dogs. Unless someone chooses to get right into the personal space of me, as I walk my dog and put their face within close proximity to my personal space, then I respectfully suggest both I and my dog would have more than something to say about that. 
It’s far more likely that any of us will become infected in a closed environment e.g. office, crowded underground or commuter carriage - or even as we squabble over the remaining toilet rolls in a busy supermarket - but not outside while walking a dog. We need to regain some perspective please. 
 

Yahoo!

[kold weather]

4 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

"Starting to struggle"? I think they've gone way past the start. They appear to be losing the battle. Blunt i know. Real concerns now, for here and elsewhere in Europe.

well yeah you are probably right about that.

The worry is, they are struggling with this amount of cases and they are still gathering more and more into ICU condition at a rate faster than recovery and dying. collapse of their health service is coming.

Spain can't be all that far behind now. 

I'm afraid most European countries will go through this, regardless of the method they are using to deal with this crisis.

Edited March 15, 2020 by kold weather

[The PIT]

2 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

So the idea is that when things get bad enough, the over 70s will be told to self isolate. The question then becomes, how do we know when it's bad enough? If we are not testing then we can't track the numbers. Will vulnerable groups have to remain indoors for months while we hope the rapid test kits become a reality? Testing more people now isn't putting resources under strain. There is the capacity for more the 2.5k/day. Having a better handle on the numbers and spread will also provide a firmer foundation for planning and preparations.

and without the data they cannot plan.

[Summer Sun]

Just now, Boro Snow said:

When did Italy go into lockdown was it last weekend, hopefully these numbers will start to reduce 

Yeah. Full lockdown is around 1 week in now. You would hope these numbers begin to full over the coming days

[ArHu3]

15 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Where? 

Netherlands 

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

well yeah you are probably right about that.

The worry is, they are struggling with this amount of cases and they are still gathering more and more into ICU condition at a rate faster than recovery and dying.

This is why not locking down this country is not an option. We can see what's going to happen if it doesn't happen soon.

[emax]

6 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

So the idea is that when things get bad enough, the over 70s will be told to self isolate. The question then becomes, how do we know when it's bad enough? If we are not testing then we can't track the numbers. Will vulnerable groups have to remain indoors for months while we hope the rapid test kits become a reality? Testing more people now isn't putting resources under strain. There is the capacity for more the 2.5k/day. Having a better handle on the numbers and spread will also provide a firmer foundation for planning and preparations.

Hospital testing. Thats how you know its bad enough. Its certainly not ideal, but community testing is NEVER EVER going to give you an accurate enough figure, not now anyway, so why waste resources on it?

Edited March 15, 2020 by emax

[Zak M]

Scary numbers in Italy.

3,590 infected with 368 dead today alone.

Also with a 7.3% death rate.

[booferking]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

This is why not locking down this country is not an option. We can see what's going to happen if it doesn't happen soon.

This is what the normal folk can see.

Eyes are useless when the mind is blind.

[emax]

Just now, booferking said:

This is what the normal folk can see.

Eyes are useless when the mind is blind.

So where has it been said that social distancing and lockdowns arent going to happen?

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Yeah. Full lockdown is around 1 week in now. You would hope these numbers begin to full over the coming days

Cases in Wuhan increased through to 10 days after the lockdown. So in theory Italy should go up for a few days yet to come IF it follows the same trend as Wuhan. However I've got doubts its going to be as effective as it was in Wuhan, because people are still working and shopping, so there will be some contact still occurring with quite a few.

[booferking]

1 minute ago, Zak M said:

Scary numbers in Italy.

3,590 infected with 368 dead today alone.

Also with a 7.3% death rate.

Any stats on positive tests to tests carried out?

[Zak M]

2 minutes ago, booferking said:

Any stats on positive tests to tests carried out?

Around 125,000 were tested I think in total.

Edited March 15, 2020 by Zak M

[biggreyface]

5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Breaking: Italy report 3,590 new cases and 368 new deaths

total now 24,747 cases and 1,809 deaths

So we’re talking about roughly 1 death to every 13 positive test that is a massive difference from china’s positive tests  to death ratio 

[Thundery wintry showers]

The panic buying is self-reinforcing: people end up feeling that they have to panic buy because otherwise their peers will panic buy and strip the shops so that there is no longer enough to buy even to meet basic needs in the event of having to self-isolate for a week - it's one of those "snowball effects".  I have bought relatively moderately and have got enough supplies to last me a few weeks in the event of having to self-isolate, but there is a danger that if self-isolation and/or widespread lockdowns go on for longer than that I might struggle after a few weeks have gone and there is a 5+ week long wait for getting groceries delivered.  Thus, many people in my position might "play it safe" and stockpile 10 weeks' worth of supplies, but while screwing over those who don't.

There have been a lot of complaints about selfish stockpiling, and I think certain aspects of the British culture do not help with this.  We're not really expected to love and care for our peers across society, we're socialised to just love and care for ourselves and our immediate nuclear family members and to pretend to care for everyone else, such as via our "etiquette of simulation", like when we greet with "how are you" but have no interest in how the other person really is.  Thus we may well have a widespread mentality of, "I'm being unselfish because I'm stockpiling to make sure that my immediate family is catered for, as well as myself - who cares about people beyond my immediate family, it's up to their families to care for them, it's none of my business".  The North American culture has the same problem.

As for the death rate in Italy, it is probable that there are many cases that aren't being caught and reported, so there may well be over 100,000 cases in Italy.  It's been estimated that the mortality rate of this virus is probably near 1% rather than 7%, but of course that's still many times higher than the mortality rate from influenza, and the percentage who need hospital treatment is probably near or above 7%.

Edited March 15, 2020 by Thundery wintry showers

[booferking]

1 minute ago, Zak M said:

Around 125,000 were tested I think in total.

Thanks for the info.

[BornFromTheVoid]

6 minutes ago, emax said:

Hospital testing. Thats how you know its bad enough. Its certainly not ideal, but community testing is NEVER EVER going to give you an accurate enough figure, not now anyway, so why waste resources on it?

I strongly disagree. Knowledge is power and all that. But I guess it's best to leave it there

[Beverley Lass]

Awww, the Irish pubs to close for two weeks, even over St Patrick's day

[Boro Snow]

A petition to parliament to close all schools and colleges is now over half a million signatures 

[Summer Sun]

 

[Zak M]

The coronavirus in Italy: 

Day 1: 14 cases, 1 dead

Day 2: 76 cases, 2 dead

Day 3: 153 cases, 3 dead

Day 4: 231 cases, 7 dead

Day 5: 374 cases, 12 dead

Day 6: 528 cases, 17 dead

Day 7: 821 cases, 21 dead

Day 8: 1,128 cases, 29 dead

Day 9: 1,577 cases, 34 dead

Day 10: 1,835 cases, 52 dead

Day 11: 2,263 cases, 79 dead

Day 12: 2,706 cases, 107 dead

Day 13: 3,296 cases, 148 dead

Day 14: 3,916 cases, 197 dead

Day 15: 5,061 cases, 233 dead

Day 16: 6,387 cases, 366 dead

Day 17: 7,985 cases, 463 dead

Day 18: 8,514 cases, 631 dead

Day 19: 10,590 cases, 827 dead

Day 20: 12,839 cases, 1,015 dead

Day 21: 14,955 cases, 1,266 dead

Day 22: 17,750 cases, 1,441 dead

Day 23: 20,603 cases, 1,809 dead

[seabreeze86]

Haven’t posted on here but have read the thread every day so great information on here so keep it up everyone

My opinion that social distancing needs to happen ASAP we have seen (if the numbers are accurate in China)it work there and as of now that seems our only defence against this. Our Government are acting to slow and this will have bad consequences down the line.

I decided a week ago to make plans for more vulnerable members of my family and have begun to act on them I hope everyone will do the same.

[alexisj9]

25 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Breaking: Italy report 3,590 new cases and 368 new deaths

total now 24,747 cases and 1,809 deaths

Omg that is shocking. 

[kold weather]

9 minutes ago, Boro Snow said:

A petition to parliament to close all schools and colleges is now over half a million signatures 

It could have 2 million signatures but its not going to make a jot of difference because we are listening to our experts....for once...

[beatpete]

15 minutes ago, Boro Snow said:

A petition to parliament to close all schools and colleges is now over half a million signatures 

Took mine out of school last Wednesday, some though I was crazy, don't think anyone will go in Monday irrelevant of what gov say.