COVID-19 Pandemic

[jimben]

UK population 66 million. To develop herd immunity 60% of population to become infected. Death rate of those infected at a very conservative estimate of 1%, all countries reporting much higher figures, will give total UK deaths of approximately 400,000 a sobering thought.

[kold weather]

Another large jump from Spain today in cases:

Up 1362 to 7753.

Spain likely ahead of Italy at the same point...and that upward motion is not the whole day, there will be at least 1 more report later on!

[Jo Farrow]

4 minutes ago, knocker said:

That's odd

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51895873

That byline isn't correct. If you listen to what he says, that is on their action plan, on a list of options. the BBC text isn't right

[Zak M]

 

[kar999]

14 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

As we found over the past election folk can run into mental issues if they stay up close and personal to multiple media outlets for too long a time when they are heavily invested in the issues ?

Folk might find it to their benefit to take a few hours/days away from media every so often when it's all getting too much for them?

Don't run the risk of letting the stresses of this unfolding crisis lead you into poor mental health!

We're all here to talk to/pm if we have worries?

I'm sure all of us will help where we can!

Be Well folks!

Yep a break from breaking news sounds like a good plan.

The dog always wants a walk, so whilst we can still go out we're all off to blow the cobwebs away for a long walk on the beach! (Well away from other folk).

Edited March 15, 2020 by kar999

[swebby]

8 minutes ago, ciel said:

To be quite clear, the purpose of my OP on this particular topic was to report a policy change as it relates to Scotland, without speculation, posting fake news or expressing an uninformed opinion on the value of contact tracing or otherwise. I did not suggest it was a panacea.

As it happens, however, I do think it is useful as a surveillance tool, identifying asymptomatic cases, the degree of community spread and ‘hotspots’. In addition, it can be helpful in identifying cases in which early supportive treatment is of benefit.

This is the principle issue that i have with the Governments approach - without testing how do you know a sufficient percentage of the population has been infected thus allowing a relaxation of control measures. 

Unless some form or sera testing is developed, you will be working off assumptions on the amount of unconfirmed cases. get that assumption wrong, and you could potentially be in the poo.

At the moment, i assume they will work on relaxing control measures and then checking for any increase in hospitalisations as the indicator as to if they were correct, but that seems high risk in comparison to a well designed random testing regime.

 

[Jo Farrow]

1 minute ago, matty007 said:

Personally, I would highly dose elderly people with Vitamin D. It has been proven to be useful in somewhat preventing respiratory infections. If they are isolating, it will also ensure they receive enough to combat lack of sun exposure.

I suspect dosing the elderly with Vitamin D would somewhat help in possibly preventing fatal pneumonia. It's not been tested in detail for this yet, but it is certainly worth consideration.

In Scotland we are supposed to take that all winter anyway. up til March https://www.gov.scot/publications/vitamin-d-advice-for-all-age-groups/ 

 

 

[Snipper]

Anything being achieved by all this they should have done this or they should have done that? Now forecasting we all know is a lot easier. Hindsight forecasting is even better.

[matty007]

Just now, Jo Farrow said:

In Scotland we are supposed to take that all winter anyway. up til March https://www.gov.scot/publications/vitamin-d-advice-for-all-age-groups/ 

 

 

Indeed. The problem is, many don't.

Vitamin D defincency is so common in the UK.

 

[Spikecollie]

2000 more cases in Spain and more than 100 deaths

[matty007]

Just now, Spikecollie said:

2000 more cases in Spain and more than 100 deaths

These case rises are getting sobering now.

Viruses are quite slow to gain momentum to start, but once they get to this point, given this doubles every 4 days, it does not take long to reach massive figures.

[Boro Snow]

7 minutes ago, matty007 said:

Personally, I would highly dose elderly people with Vitamin D. It has been proven to be useful in somewhat preventing respiratory infections. If they are isolating, it will also ensure they receive enough to combat lack of sun exposure.

I suspect dosing the elderly with Vitamin D would somewhat help in possibly preventing fatal pneumonia. It's not been tested in detail for this yet, but it is certainly worth consideration.

Eat plenty of fish and eggs and some cereals all have good amounts of vitamin D in I think 

[Spikecollie]

Austria has banned gatherings of more than 5 people - I'm just pondering - me, my two neighbours and two neighbours across have just been nattering over the fence in the garden (they were together next to me). One more person and we'd be banned if anyone was watching. This whole scenario is bonkers

Edited March 15, 2020 by Spikecollie

[Nick L]

9 minutes ago, Zak M said:

 

100,000,000 million? 100,000,000,000,000? Blimey.

[matty007]

I think sometimes, people get confused with viruses. They see it rising slowly at the start, and can't understand how it can reach millions in a matter of weeks.

The R0 is a very scary figure. If you have 20,000 cases, that will turn into 40,000 the following week. Then the next week, it doubles again.

Doubling small numbers like 100 is not shock inducing. When you start doubling 100,000, then doubling 200,000... well, it gets very scary.

Edited March 15, 2020 by matty007

[Spikecollie]

Difficult for believers, a source of solace taken away:

(Source: BBC live)

[The PIT]

3 minutes ago, Spikecollie said:

Austria has banned gatherings of more than 5 people - I'm just pondering - me, my two neighbours and two neighbours across have just been nattering over the fence in the garden (they were together next to me). One more person and we'd be banned if anyone was watching. This whole scenario is bonkers

No chance of working then.

Too be honest if you're outside as long as you don't cough or sneeze directly into someone's face I would say the risk would be very low.

[jimben]

Hearing from a health care professional on the frontline "that lemon is beginning to hit the fan" and will unravel very very quickly 

[Summer Sun]

 

[matty007]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

 

Can probably x that 7,753 by ten, at the least.

Edited March 15, 2020 by matty007

[Spikecollie]

1 minute ago, jimben said:

Hearing from a health care professional on the frontline "that lemon is beginning to hit the fan" and will unravel very very quickly 

Never seen a lemon hit a fan but assume you meant poo before the babysitter intervened!

[swebby]

12 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

In Scotland we are supposed to take that all winter anyway. up til March https://www.gov.scot/publications/vitamin-d-advice-for-all-age-groups/ 

 

 

Thought winter in Scotland lasted until june? 

[matty007]

I'm off now everyone. Have a good Sunday afternoon.

Take care.

[The4Seasons]

32 minutes ago, matty007 said:

Thankfully, viruses like Ebola will never be able to spread this widely and quickly. For that, we must be thankful. In terms of aysmpotamic viruses, this is about the worst you would hope for.

Covid 19 infecting say 10 million with a 1% CFR is much worse than Ebloa infecting 500 with a 66% CFR.

If you think of all the travel we have I think you might be wrong saying it couldn't spread like covid 19. It actually did spread from west towards central Africa for a while but luckily they found a preventive vaccine and took decisive action against the most recent strain that caused high infections in the Congo republic - please refer to WHO site for info. Like covid 19 ebola does not display symptoms straight away but it causes respiratory symptoms as it develops. Viruses that cause any infection of the respiratory tract can easily become a problem to infect others via airborne droplets then touch etc. That makes them the biggest threat. Luckily where Ebola occured were not in high travel regions and it didnt mutate enough to allow it to become airborne via coughing and sneezing only by close contact. Many people are just too poor to fly abroad in this region of Africa so its spread was limited to there unlike china and Europe people have money to travel the world. I just hope we all learn a valid lesson from this covid 19 should anything worse god forbid ever develops in the future. This is a serious wake up call guys for humanity. We take for granted like nothing could ever happen in our daily lives but sometimes as history shows it repeats itself - anything is possible. As the population increases so does the risk of diseases spreading faster. We just had a lucky escape that this was not the big one (like the plague for example). We need to be prepared for anything and not live in denial that a virus cant spread because it will otherwise as demonstrated by the steep rise in cases in Italy, Spain, Iran and China previously etc. This is a big learning lesson for everyone around the world. It's now not the time for countries to panic, argue with themselves and each other. Solving its spread is now the key or to develop a vaccine asap. Light at the end of the tunnel will come. We will get through this as we always do. As shown in history so there is no need for high level of panic in supermarkets etc.. Remember this isn't the big one. It's not world war Z etc :-). Sadly there will be losses of loved ones out there for some families. That's to be expected unfortunately right now until this is under control :-(. 

[Spikecollie]

"Les conducteurs de bus et tram de Transports Bordeaux Métropole (TBM) ont exercé leur droit de retrait ce dimanche après une suspicion de cas chez l'un d'entre eux. Selon le réseau de transports, les tramways ne circulent plus et les réseau bus est fortement perturbé." (Source: BFTMTV live)

I mentioned this early on here. Serious transport problems as bus and tram drivers exercise their right to withdraw from work in Bordeaux due to a case among them.