COVID-19 Pandemic

[The PIT]

Good news there seems to be a slow down in France and Germany or do they update twice a day?

China chugging slowly along at 25 new cases and ten new deaths close enough to 67000 recovered.

[matty007]

Out of date, but rather sobering if you haevn't seen it..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6dDD2tHWWnU&t=175s

[The PIT]

Just now, Summer Sun said:

 

Sounds like a Government in total confusion and unable to get a handle on things.

[daz_4]

1 minute ago, The PIT said:

Good news there seems to be a slow down in France and Germany or do they update twice a day?

China chugging slowly along at 25 new cases and ten new deaths close enough to 67000 recovered.

I think they update at least twice a day.

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Good news there seems to be a slow down in France and Germany or do they update twice a day?

China chugging slowly along at 25 new cases and ten new deaths close enough to 67000 recovered.

At least twice, I think Germany does more than that. Spain has multiple updates.

[Snipper]

20 minutes ago, matty007 said:

...

Unfortunately, this will only happen again if wet markets are not banned for good.

Will probably still go on in someone’s garden shed as they have the taste for it.

[daz_4]

Ugh, it's exploding over here. We had 150 cases 24 hours ago, 231 now.

[Summer Sun]

3 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Good news there seems to be a slow down in France and Germany or do they update twice a day?

China chugging slowly along at 25 new cases and ten new deaths close enough to 67000 recovered.

France are normally morning and afternoon/early evening not sure about Germany

 

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, matty007 said:

Contagion was eerly similar to this virus and an amazing movie if you have an interest in medicine and diseases.

Indeed Matty; I have been thinking of re-watching Contagion for some days now (I have two doctors in my immediate family)...

And, anyway, it's a good opportunity for seeing Kate Winslett wearing clothes!

[Sky Full]

12 hours ago, nick sussex said:

Not necessarily . In China the range in patients who died from  first symptoms to death was 2 to 8 weeks .

For those with severe illness who survived 3 to 6 weeks from symptoms to recovery .

Just seen your reply, Nick.  Thanks for that correction - I was assuming a quicker recovery rate based on the very few interviews we have seen where people have reported recovering within a few days.  Of course, these may be the least badly affected so many more will experience worse symptoms and need hospital treatment  - it seems obvious on reflection that these people will take longer to recover and to become a positive statistic!

If we need to wait six weeks or more after diagnosis before treated patients are considered 'cured' then it will be a while yet before the numbers of the officially recovered become significant.

I still feel that there will be many more people who contract the virus, suffer minor symptoms and then recover without ever being counted or tested.

Edited March 15, 2020 by Sky Full

[matty007]

Just now, Snipper said:

Will probably still go on in someone’s garden shed as they have the taste for it.

[Azazel]

I know people keep saying a total lockdown wouldn’t work because once you lift the lockdown the virus  will just spread again but will it?

if everyone was locked down, the people with the virus would either recover or pass away. It wouldn’t be able to spread beyond your house if you were locked down. It would eventually die out.

[matty007]

5 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Indeed Matty; I have been thinking of re-watching Contagion for some days now (I have two doctors in my immediate family)...

And, anyway, it's a good opportunity for seeing Kate Winslett wearing clothes!

I have watched it many times myself. That's awesome, GP's or a specialist field? What do they think of this situation?

Love a bit of Winslet myself

[alexisj9]

8 hours ago, weirpig said:

Come on  the more this goes on  the more I think this is media driven    if the media were to produce daily totals of other infections  diseases  we would never sleep  .  it's getting to a point when I'm wondering why  .   This in all intensive purposes is a mild disease    it affects s the elderly   and the infirm    I JUST DONT GET THE  PANIC 

So you think half the world including some EU countries, shutting their borders to stop the virus getting in or out is normal? 

[nick sussex]

Any lockdown can’t suddenly be stopped . You’d need a gradual relaxation of restrictions so that authorities can monitor what happens .

Personally I prefer to be in a situation where I’m forced to stay indoors at the beginning and then this is relaxed slowly.

Moral wise seeing life slowly to return to normal I find preferrable . Steadily worse then lockdown I’d find more difficult .

Again everyone has their own view and it’s very much a personal thing .

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, matty007 said:

I have watched it many times myself. That's awesome, GP's or a specialist field? What do they think of this situation?

Love a bit of Winslet myself

My daughter's a Hospital Doctor at The Raigmore, Inverness, who specialised in gynaecolgy; my daughter's father-in-law is a retired GP, down here in Suffolk.

It's a shame I no-longer live in the Highlands, as I can't access the Hospital library anymore.

[alexisj9]

8 hours ago, Gael_Force said:

It's all very well making hundreds of ventilators but according to a specialist on C4 news there's hardly enough specially trained staff to operate the ones we already have. 

I'm also confused as to who they are intended for ....

The young don't get sick enough to require: the middle aged ... might be a few serious cases that need ventilation... over 65 and your past the point at which resuscitation by ventilator is considered appropriate. 

It's only because the young do need respirators if they get it bad, that the old are turned away, simply because not enough resources to treat everyone, Italians are being forced to make horrible decisions, based on age and other illnesses, versus no illness and likely to be useful afterwards. 

[Sky Full]

2 hours ago, beatpete said:

I run a few holiday cottages in Wales. we have 2 issues, everyone is cancelling as too scared to travel, my cleaners are quiting as the virus stays on surfaces for days, we are currently closing down everything for a few months, I have not idea if the business will survive. 

I am truly sorry to hear this - it must be very worrying for you.  I am surprised, though, that people are cancelling with you - I would have thought cottages in Wales would be the ideal holiday destination to avoid airports, cruise liners, and hotels on the Costas.  The weather may not be so reliable but who cares about that now?   If people like yourself are seeing these effects so early in the day, what must it be like in the large travel companies?   Meltdown might not be too strong a word.  

I wish you luck and an early recovery of your business.

[Puddy Galore]

43 minutes ago, matty007 said:

Unfortunately, this will only happen again if wet markets are not banned for good.

Those of us who highlight this often get slammed for this viewpoint and no doubt I will be again.  However, it so very true.  It is not about blame culture per se but about taking responsibility for what actions you take or have taken and the wider effect  it has on others around you.  Only when you acknowledge what events led up to cause a catastrophe can you take steps to ensure, as far as possible, it isn’t repeated for future generations.    This viral nightmare has sadly and unfortunately almost bought the world to its knees socially and economically not to mention the havoc caused on health services trying to deal with unprecedented illness and death.  When this is all over and the damage to peoples lives, livelihoods and businesses are evaluated and realised, the world needs to address these cultures, however unpalatable they find it to challenge, to try and mitigate against such a scenario in the future.    People can blast me all they like, it won’t change my point of view, which I am entitled to.  We cannot go through all this again

Edited March 15, 2020 by Snowycat

[Zak M]

 

[kold weather]

7 minutes ago, matty007 said:

This is true, apart from the fact that there will ALWAYS be a certain number of people socializing. Vital public services will still operate, people will still go outdoors. That keeps the reservoir for the virus intact, albeit at a reduced number. Once the ones locking down go back to normal, they will simply be infected from those who were still socializing, etc.

I can't think of any virus in history that has been irradicated by lockdowns. It reduces the number, yes, but it will always rise again.

Vaccination or herd immunity are the only ways to suffocate a virus of viable hosts and thus, render it totally or virtually irradicated.

A lockdown is basically a siege until re-enforcements arrive (aka the Vaccine) . We have pretty much given up with the idea that we can stop it, so its a slow down job and try to tackle it at a time that is beneficial for us.

I suppose the other question is will the people follow you if you have a lockdown - release - reinfection - lockdown pattern for a sustained period of time. The behaviour specialists in our country think thats a clear no. History (my area of speciality!) would suggests its not quite as clear cut as that, however generally some can, and some can't, and sometimes even if they can, the aftermath is so extreme it almost wasn't worth the effort. So its just as much a roll of the dice as any dtrategy we are employing.

China will be most interesting to watch in the next month, though even if it breaks out again, we may not know if they go super lockdown mode again and shut it down before it leaks out.

 

[Snipper]

23 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Sounds like a Government in total confusion and unable to get a handle on things.

Don’t believe it does.  Think the speed of spread from the outset has everyone surprised. They said there was planned steps as it evolved. As information comes in and is analysed you have to be ready to be flexible.  

[nick sussex]

Announcing things you might do in the future in detail is causing confusion .

Either announce you’re doing them now or just say nothing. 

This criticism is aimed at all European governments ! 

[kold weather]

Belgium today reporting an extra 197 reporting cases, which is another fairly decent jump from where they were yesterday (around the 20-25% increase mark) 

[Spikecollie]

Just now, nick sussex said:

Announcing things you might do in the future in detail is causing confusion .

Either announce you’re doing them now or just say nothing. 

This criticism is aimed at all European governments ! 

Agree! OH's parents are very confused ATM, are they not supposed to go out or will that happen later - these mixed message are not helping anyone.

Same here in France, what's open and what's not? Seems to be very ad hoc...