COVID-19 Pandemic

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, DAVID SNOW said:

What!! The type of people who NEED to work to earn money to put food on the table???

Blimey!

 

Yes, and those are the ones that will lead to many thousands dying. I don't blame them per say, I blame the government for not putting in measures to help them. However, the greater good matters more than the individual on this one.

[Stabilo19]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Only with bad parenting.

Right.

The advice to stay home would limit spread of the virus. But people ignoring that advice and continuing to socialize is out of the government's hands.

[Wiltshire_snow_lover]

 

[kold weather]

Just now, Stabilo19 said:

Right.

The advice to stay home would limit spread of the virus. But people ignoring that advice and continuing to socialize is out of the government's hands.

If that happens, then the nudge theory would need to go out of the window and harsher lockdown put into place. Lets hope the discipline is strong enough in this country to avoid it.

[nick sussex]

If they want to keep the school closures on review fine but to suggest they might need to be shut to the summer if they do bring them in seems to not be based on much logic or science .

It seems that this long term shutdown suggestion is being used to deflect from criticisms . So the narrative is , “well you know apparently these school closures only work if you do them for a long time that would cause far too much disruption “.

“So our hands are tied really .”

 

[Summer Sun]

1 minute ago, Donegal said:

China just 15 new cases and a 14 day quarantine for all international travellers. I can't help but think this could have been avoided or substantially lessened if at the beginning of this countries implemented a travel ban on China and a 14 day quarantine for anyone who was in East Asia. 

China is ironically one of the safest places to be now given how quickly they locked cities down

[Summer Sun]

 

[Stabilo19]

27 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Nicola Sturgeon speaking before Boris. She's just confirmed we're moving from contain to delay phase

I'm glad she's giving out some advice but when is the British Prime Minister going to say something? There's no sense of urgency at all. 

Meanwhile, Leo Varadkar was up early AM announcing the measures for Ireland. 

[pip22]

BNO Newsroom

@BNODesk·5m

BREAKING: Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will self-isolate and work from home as his wife is being tested for coronavirus

Summer Sun beat me to it... ^^

Edited March 12, 2020 by pip22

[Emz by the Thames]

My niece's school has written to all parents telling them each child now has their own email address at the school to make home study and teacher contact easier. They are expecting disruption to school terms and that might come at short notice. Rumour going round school is the Easter holidays will start earlier.

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

If they want to keep the school closures on review fine but to suggest they might need to be shut to the summer if they do bring them in seems to not be based on much logic or science .

It seems that this long term shutdown suggestion is being used to deflect from criticisms . So the narrative is , “well you know apparently these school closures only work if you do them for a long time that would cause far too much disruption “.

“So our hands are tied really .”

 

Yes pretty much seems to be the case Nick.

I'm more interested to see what happens with regards to gatherings.

Also, what happens to Scotland's schools? Because some of them are above 500 and in theory that is a gathering of more than 500? Not sure a huge amount of thought has gone into that idea there!

Edited March 12, 2020 by kold weather

[emax]

1 minute ago, Stabilo19 said:

Right.

The advice to stay home would limit spread of the virus. But people ignoring that advice and continuing to socialize is out of the government's hands.

I would imagine keeping schools open for as long as possible is to limit the effect of parents having to have time off work etc, which would include emergency services, carers etc. 

Its easy to say shut all schools now (and it will come) but the damage that will do to all sorts of services has to be weighed against keeping those services running at their best for as long as possible. Its still a tricky one, but as keeps being mentioned, that button has to be pressed at exactly the right time. All you can do is trust the experts on that. If you dont, then you cant trust anything!

[cheeky_monkey]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

 

with what has been going on in Canada the last 3 months..i thought he had self isolated himself long long ago

[Snipper]

As Chris Whitty CMO was being praised a while back and the government seemed to be letting the science direct events should we just wait and see.  As with anything nowadays there are widely diverging views.

People seem to be making there own minds up concerning what to do.  Numbers down on the tube and buses for starters.  Just those sports fans who seem to ignore what is going on.  Unfortunately I am a person who couldn’t care a jot if football was never played again. 

[Stabilo19]

2 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

I'm glad she's giving out some advice but when is the British Prime Minister going to say something? There's no sense of urgency at all. 

Meanwhile, Leo Varadkar was up early AM announcing the measures for Ireland. 

The COBRA meeting finished 1hr ago. Are they having afternoon tea before they announce the outcome?

[nick sussex]

I feel this is like death by a thousand cuts .

You can either bring in harsh restrictions, get the pain over with quickly or drag this out with fluff announcements.

The issue of public compliance is the cumulative of measures spread over a long time might lead to a worse outcome .

And you’re not really in control of events they control you .

If the spread approach fails it’s going to be a massive fail because it only works if the health systems don’t become overwhelmed. Once the tipping point is reached fatality rates go up rapidly and then you have to bring in last minute panic measures .

[kold weather]

5 minutes ago, emax said:

I would imagine keeping schools open for as long as possible is to limit the effect of parents having to have time off work etc, which would include emergency services, carers etc. 

Its easy to say shut all schools now (and it will come) but the damage that will do to all sorts of services has to be weighed against keeping those services running at their best for as long as possible. Its still a tricky one, but as keeps being mentioned, that button has to be pressed at exactly the right time. All you can do is trust the experts on that. If you dont, then you cant trust anything!

Yes, I don't necessarily disagree with the logic behind keeping schools open and as you say, it will get to the point where if there is going to that much sickness going through at the same time, it will no longer be viable to keep schools open anyway.

Its just a little worrying that we are taking such a different stance to most of the rest of the world!

Also, I will be far more worried if they do nothing about cancelling or banning large gatherings.

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

I feel this is like death by a thousand cuts .

You can either bring in harsh restrictions, get the pain over with quickly or drag this out with fluff announcements.

The issue of public compliance is the cumulative of measures spread over a long time might lead to a worse outcome .

And you’re not really in control of events they control you .

If the spread approach fails it’s going to be a massive fail because it only works if the health systems don’t become overwhelmed. Once the tipping point is reached fatality rates go up rapidly and then you have to bring in last minute panic measures .

Yes and unfortunately as we are seeing in Italy, that might only need 5,000 cases in one region to reach breaking point.

This is such a gamble, better hope their model and theory of behaviour is spot on, because if not, as you said it will lead to a huge spike in deaths.

[Wiltshire_snow_lover]

 

[Stabilo19]

4 minutes ago, Paul Faulkner said:

I assume he will have to brief Buckingham Palace, the opposition leader and other senior figures who were not present at the meeting, before any public announcement is made.

Jimmy Cranky up in Scotland couldn't wait to break the news, anything to get one over on the government.

Seems other meeting attendees are able to distribute vital information too. The PM needs a boot up the ****.

 

Edited March 12, 2020 by Stabilo19

[kold weather]

Germany cases now upto 2502, an increase today of 536.

Confirmed cases right now also above 130,000 cases.

[Man With Beard]

1 minute ago, Stabilo19 said:

Seems other meeting attendees are able to distribute vital information too. The PM needs a boot up the weeble.

 

If that's what they are expecting, are they going to just let this get into the hundreds of thousands? Millions? No one will have a problem with a lock down if so - everyone will be too scared to go out! 

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

If that's what they are expecting, are they going to just let this get into the hundreds of thousands? Millions? No one will have a problem with a lock down if so - everyone will be too scared to go out! 

Yep, I think they are prepared to let a large percent of the working population get the virus in the next 2 months. The key for them is keeping it out of the elderly community and to effectively isolate them out of the wider ill society.

The NHS hopefully can cope with that amount of people being ill, as their thinking is a large percentage won't need hospital help as its impacting lower risk group...lets hope Italy isn't a sign that this is going to be wrong. Schools can shut then as at any one time a large amount of people will be off work anyway so things grind to a halt regardless.

All my theory, but makes sense based on what we have heard thus far.

Edited March 12, 2020 by kold weather

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

If that's what they are expecting, are they going to just let this get into the hundreds of thousands? Millions? No one will have a problem with a lock down if so - everyone will be too scared to go out! 

Jeeesus so we are still 6 to 8 weeks away from peak????

Oh my days....

Lockdown now please.

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

If that's what they are expecting, are they going to just let this get into the hundreds of thousands? Millions? No one will have a problem with a lock down if so - everyone will be too scared to go out! 

If that’s the timeline then that suggests they’re going to let the virus run it’s course .

Because if they were thinking of putting in harsher restrictions over the coming weeks the peak wouldn’t be in May .

So I think it gives a good indication of the thinking in the government.