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COVID-19 Pandemic


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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

How long before Dr Fauci of the WH Taskforce gets fired .

He said in a hearing the US testing procedures are failing .

An hour later Trump said it was all marvelous and anyone who wants a test can get one .

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Posted
  • Location: Bewdley, Worcs; 90m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and sun in winter; warm and bright otherwise; not a big storm fan
  • Location: Bewdley, Worcs; 90m asl
13 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

That’s absolutely horrific . Hard to imagine how doctors are coping with having to make those sorts of decisions .

I saw someone elsewhere today saying that they have effectively become wartime doctors. As with medics on the battlefield, they have to see things far beyond what most of us can even imagine.

Edit: I am in my 40s and diabetic. So if I were there, I would be left to die. That really does bring home the magnitude of all this.

Edited by Arctic Hare
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Just now, Arctic Hare said:

I saw someone elsewhere today saying that they have effectively become wartime doctors. As with medics on the battlefield, they have to see things far beyond what most of us can even imagine.

As soon as you see the advice given to the doctors mentions “triage decisions will be challenging” then the alarm bells start ringing .

In the same twitter thread you’ll see a leak of advice to Irish doctors . 

 

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I do not like this governments policy of 'Herd Immunity'

It appears they are wiiling to sacrifice the old and the weak for economic reasons

Take procative measures when you are ahead of the curve, don't allow mass gatherings and close schools

China has proven that containment is possible with extreme measures - Why can't we do the same ?

Looks like the premier league is finished now anyway - Maybe they are waiting for the herds to make decisions for them

 

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
4 minutes ago, Coastal Eddy said:

I do not like this governments policy of 'Herd Immunity'

It appears they are wiiling to sacrifice the old and the weak for economic reasons

Take procative measures when you are ahead of the curve, don't allow mass gatherings and close schools

China has proven that containment is possible with extreme measures - Why can't we do the same ?

Looks like the premier league is finished now anyway - Maybe they are waiting for the herds to make decisions for them

 

I think it's the opposite. Herd immunity for young and healthy should in theory help to protect older and weaker whilst that latter group practise social distances.

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
1 hour ago, Donegal said:

This forum seems to be pretty split on whether or not to close schools. Extraordinary times call for extraordinary measures. I've noticed comments elsewhere about kids don't really get it there's no point. Kids do get it and should be fine but they spread it like wildfire and then those more vulnerable die. 

Q: How about proactive school closures, before there are any infections associated with a school? Are they helpful?

A: Proactive school closures—closing schools before there’s a case there—have been shown to be one of the most powerful nonpharmaceutical interventions that we can deploy. Proactive school closures work like reactive school closures not just because they get the children, the little vectors, removed from circulation. It’s not just about keeping the kids safe. It’s keeping the whole community safe. When you close the schools, you reduce the mixing of the adults—parents dropping off at the school, the teachers being present. When you close the schools, you effectively require the parents to stay home.

There was a wonderful paper published that analyzed data regarding the Spanish flu in 1918, examining proactive versus reactive school closures. When did [regional] authorities close the schools relative to when the epidemic was spiking? What they found was that proactive school closing saved substantial numbers of lives. St. Louis closed the schools about a day in advance of the epidemic spiking, for 143 days. Pittsburgh closed 7 days after the peak and only for 53 days. And the death rate for the epidemic in St. Louis was roughly one-third as high as in Pittsburgh. These things work.

Coronavirus_schools_Q%26A_1280x720.jpg?i
WWW.SCIENCEMAG.ORG

A researcher who forecasts epidemic spread argues that proactive closures, though disruptive, could help

 

I'm not sure it's as simple as that unfortunately. Children were very susceptible in the case of Spanish flu, whereas the opposite seems to be the case with the current outbreak.

Edited by Relativistic
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Posted
  • Location: London, UK
  • Weather Preferences: MCC/MCS Thunderstorms
  • Location: London, UK
25 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I think it's the opposite. Herd immunity for young and healthy should in theory help to protect older and weaker whilst that latter group practise social distances.

I think it's potentially important that there is some underlying science we don't know about that says this has done the rounds in the UK, and is doing the rounds in the thousands.

A lot of people are skeptical about the numbers and what China have said. Maybe there's info China has given the UK and what Colindale know about this virus.  

Im also poitive the weather and low international traffic numbers to the UK has helped.  Mostly due to Brexit. (?)

Bare in mind London has a direct flight to Wuhan when this was happening (Dec 2019).  Then there is every chance that there's a lot of undetected mild cases in the UK since Jan 2019.

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
1 hour ago, Donegal said:

Yeah. As the study says where they closed the school the death rate was only one third as high as where they didn't. That should remove all doubt IMO

Of course it removes doubt but situation then was different to now...

1918 flu hit young people very hard: probably very few mothers worked at that time or if they did, extended family tended to be quite close by. Early school closures would have been very effective and a life saving action.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Bewdley, Worcs; 90m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and sun in winter; warm and bright otherwise; not a big storm fan
  • Location: Bewdley, Worcs; 90m asl
1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

As soon as you see the advice given to the doctors mentions “triage decisions will be challenging” then the alarm bells start ringing .

In the same twitter thread you’ll see a leak of advice to Irish doctors . 

 

Yes, I think very few of us have really yet processed just how big this crisis actually is. I don't think I have.

I'm not an especially brave person, but I have never truly been scared for my life. Until now. If I get this bloody virus at anywhere near the peak of the epidemic, I will either beat it on my own or die. The usual middle path of "beat it thanks to intensive hospital care" won't be there at all.

Edited by Arctic Hare
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
9 minutes ago, Arctic Hare said:

Yes, I think very few of us have really yet processed just how big this crisis actually is. I don't think I have.

I'm not an especially brave person, but I have never truly been scared for my life. Until now. If I get this bloody virus at anywhere near the peak of the epidemic, I will either beat it on my own or die. The usual middle path of "beat it thanks to intensive hospital care" won't be there at all.

A lot of us will be in the same boat. Get in bed, stay there and pray we make it through.

Getting up and trying to get on with your daily routine whilst suffering with this will not help anybody one bit.

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

A lot of us will be in the same boat. Get in bed, stay there and pray we make it through.

I suspect the UK will go into full lockdown within 7 days.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Beeb gets careless and mis reports the number of new cases mixed saying only eight new cases. That's deaths and new cases is 21.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
29 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Beeb gets careless and mis reports the number of new cases mixed saying only eight new cases. That's deaths and new cases is 21.

Where is this ?

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Where is this ?

Breakfast news channel  21 101

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
4 hours ago, Donegal said:

And those children go home and infect their elderly relatives. 

yes, and then invariably a high percentage of them will then in turn need intensive care beds then causing health service to be under even greater strain - vicious circle.

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Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl

I don't know if the following proposal is realistic but I'm going to post it anyway.....  There is great discussion over the decision whether to keep schools open, which many perceive as a means to spread the virus and others hope it will contain it.  

My proposal is that as children are not likely to suffer any ill effects from the virus, let alone die from it, we could immediately and intentionally expose everyone under the age of 18 who is otherwise fit and healthy to the virus so that within 14-21 days all of our under 18s are immune.  

During this period it would necessary to keep them away from anyone who is vulnerable - the elderly, infirm and long term sick - but where this was not possible the children might have to be placed into holiday camps or in some way isolated - we did more than this in WW2 by evacuating almost all of the children from London so it's not impossible.  

Clearly while the children remain carriers they will need to be kept at home or in confinement and this may be difficult but they are going to get it at sometime according to the predictions so it might as well be done in a controlled way.

Once these children are immune schools could safely reopen or if there were insufficient staff to do this at least the children could safely return home to be looked after by their grandparents while the parents remain at work.  

I know this is risky but the benefits of creating a large pool of immune children could be worth it?   I expect to be shot down but serious threats need radical actions I believe....

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
6 hours ago, Arctic Hare said:

I saw someone elsewhere today saying that they have effectively become wartime doctors. As with medics on the battlefield, they have to see things far beyond what most of us can even imagine.

Edit: I am in my 40s and diabetic. So if I were there, I would be left to die. That really does bring home the magnitude of all this.

That is my main worry, I have Ms though. 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
8 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

I don't know if the following proposal is realistic but I'm going to post it anyway.....  There is great discussion over the decision whether to keep schools open, which many perceive as a means to spread the virus and others hope it will contain it.  

My proposal is that as children are not likely to suffer any ill effects from the virus, let alone die from it, we could immediately and intentionally expose everyone under the age of 18 who is otherwise fit and healthy to the virus so that within 14-21 days all of our under 18s are immune.  

During this period it would necessary to keep them away from anyone who is vulnerable - the elderly, infirm and long term sick - but where this was not possible the children might have to be placed into holiday camps or in some way isolated - we did more than this in WW2 by evacuating almost all of the children from London so it's not impossible.  

Clearly while the children remain carriers they will need to be kept at home or in confinement and this may be difficult but they are going to get it at sometime according to the predictions so it might as well be done in a controlled way.

Once these children are immune schools could safely reopen or if there were insufficient staff to do this at least the children could safely return home to be looked after by their grandparents while the parents remain at work.  

I know this is risky but the benefits of creating a large pool of immune children could be worth it?   I expect to be shot down but serious threats need radical actions I believe....

It’s not that radical in somewhere like China . But it would only take one death in the UK to a child who was infected and all hell would break loose. And logistically would be very difficult to implement even if parents would accept it.

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy and thundery.
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
5 hours ago, Arctic Hare said:

Yes, I think very few of us have really yet processed just how big this crisis actually is. I don't think I have.

I'm not an especially brave person, but I have never truly been scared for my life. Until now. If I get this bloody virus at anywhere near the peak of the epidemic, I will either beat it on my own or die. The usual middle path of "beat it thanks to intensive hospital care" won't be there at all.

I am not going to lie. I am trying not to get worried. My husband suffers with a bad chest at times and has frequent colds, I have had to taken him to A&E on one occasion with it. My Daughters school will have more than enough 'It's just a cold' and dump their children to school regardless. That's not their fault, of course people need money and the school is very much 'take calpol' and we're ring you if we are worried. All they care about is attendance. I am cleaning everything.

The only saving grace is that Bedford hasn't had a recorded case, yet. 

BTW as a parent, and with no real knowledge of this virus, i wouldn't allow my child to be made sick. sorry.

 

Edited by Dami
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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: very cold frosty days, blizzards, very hot weather, floods, storms
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.

Sky News Breaking

@SkyNewsBreak·3m

Sir Patrick Vallance says at least 60% of the population needs to contract COVID-19 in order to develop "herd immunity" to prevent further transmission in the future

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