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BornFromTheVoid

COVID-19 Pandemic

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Posted (edited)

If the governemnt is going to go the route of major lockdowns (still not that likely) than they absoutely HAVE to subsedise those many people who can't work from home, and are self emplyed. They have to ensure that everyone is still able to pay rent, and buy food.
 

If they don't do that, the country would go to ruins and the effects would last many many years, and not simply a year or less from the actual virus itself.

Edited by matty007
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5 minutes ago, Paul Faulkner said:

What was I saying about there being a run on the supermarkets tonight?

This is my local Sainsbury's in Nantwich, Cheshire East.

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That is shocking, frankly.

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1 hour ago, Wiltshire_snow_lover said:

Jesus just relised how much spending that is! 

Which sounds great but has he asked the ECB permission first!!??

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2 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

The thing is, the current situation, even an 8 fold increase in demand, surely is going to look like peanuts in 4 weeks time if the aim is herd immunity. 

Though the tone of Boris's message tonight made me think they aren't so keen on holding out for herd immunity any more, sounds like they actually don't want us to catch it now, bit of a change from last week? 

I think possibly (as I've thought all along) a vaccine will be rushed through before the end of the year. If this is the case, it may well be worthwhile to hang on for that.

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In other words we are fudged whatever we do, perhaps that may explain why schools have not been instructed to close? As Nick S has said you can’t be half arsed. The country essentially needs to grind to halt.

 

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8 minutes ago, matty007 said:

When this many celebrties are contracting it, you know it's very widespread.

I would say that an estimate of 50,000 may even be very low.

Or that so many 'celebrities'  spread themselves widely.

Puns aside the numbers are probably huge, which of course lowers considerably the death rate.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, kold weather said:

 

Interesting the report from the Imperial college seems to think it wil have an impact, though its not the highest in the list of things that would help, they do think working it on a 'trigger; system to help at the peak of any waves that comes through helps to drag the deaths down yet further. Then once the wave eases, you can take off the trigger and return back to school.

Its here and it is the *grimmest* thing I think I have ever read:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

Yes - the report suggests closing schools and universities (with other measures) will definitely help by reducing the # of deaths significantly. 

Without sounding like a broken record, the argument against school closures is definitely a losing one at this point. We are up against a whole continent's worth of scientific expert opinion. The longer we delay these measures, the less effective they will be. The government have already admitted the modelling was off! We don't have much time left to mitigate.

1 hour ago, matty007 said:

It seems to me that not only are children largely unaffected by this virus in terms of symptoms, but most, don't seem to be contracting it at all.

Is there any evidence to suggest this? Nobody knows yet if children are simply asymptomatic and spreading it widely amongst the older age groups.

 

 

Edited by Stabilo19
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12 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I think possibly (as I've thought all along) a vaccine will be rushed through before the end of the year. If this is the case, it may well be worthwhile to hang on for that.

Where did you hear that?  

Everything I've read suggests a vaccine could be developed and ready for human use by the end of the year, but to be available for distribution in any real quantity will take a lot longer.  

I wouldn't bank on being able to get your hands on a vaccine if you're a fit and healthy person below the age of 70, for quite some time.  It'll be restricted for the very vulnerable at first.  

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35 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

A piece of advice:

buzzfeed.com = clickbait.

buzzfeednews.com = respectable.

They're reporting on the imperial college report. They respectable enough for you? 

"The report, published by the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team on Monday night, found that the strategy previously being pursued by the government — dubbed "mitigation" and involving home isolation of suspect cases and their family members but not including restrictions on wider society — would "likely result in hundreds of thousands of deaths and health systems (most notably intensive care units) being overwhelmed many times over"."

Link to report on the article 

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6 minutes ago, Wiltshire_snow_lover said:

 

Racist much.

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47 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Unbelievable. 

That article is garbage. The author of the Imperial College report quoted later on this thread (Neil Ferguson) has consistently been advising government of a central estimate of 400,000 deaths in the UK - you can see his videos since early Feb by searching J-IDEA.

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Or that so many 'celebrities'  spread themselves widely.

Puns aside the numbers are probably huge, which of course lowers considerably the death rate.

This is interesting analysis, suggesting close to 80% going undiagnosed...explains why it's spread so quickly.  And yes, the CFR would then be somewhat lower, like less than 0.5% 

SCIENCE.SCIENCEMAG.ORG

Estimation of the prevalence and contagiousness of undocumented novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2) infections is critical for understanding the overall prevalence and pandemic potential of...

 

Edited by Beanz
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20 minutes ago, Paul Faulkner said:

What was I saying about there being a run on the supermarkets tonight?

This is my local Sainsbury's in Nantwich, Cheshire East.

 

 

 

I can actually understand the madness now - some people are being told only leave home for essentials - if you are in an at risk group, you're gonna grab as much in one go as it could save your life down the line, your next visit could be a poison arrow.

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Don't agree with the pure greed of grabbing a years supply of bog roll though - 2 or 3 months worth of food is fair game. some people already get a months worth anyway if they have a big freezer and are paid monthly.

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I believe the opinion is that children are minimally affected by the pathogen, and so ‘shed’ less virus - ultimately meaning that while they can spread the disease, the impact of closing schools is considerably less than it would be for say influenza. 

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This is copied from facebook. I never trust whether its actually from someone in the NHS or whatever, and whether it is actually an official plan or not, but, its a very good explanation of a possible plan none the less.

 

"I work for the NHS. I am going to try and fill in the gaps from the governments plan for corona virus and to try & explain it:

The plan is to segregate all vulnerable people (older, ill, disabled and at risk) let’s call this group A

Anyone looking after the older, ill and at risk can be group B

The general population / generally healthy can be group C

Group C needs to go about it’s business keeping the country moving, kids at school, us at work

Group B looks after group A and avoids contact with C

Group C is allowed to contract the virus and because it’s generally healthy it can cope with it better than group A

Group A and B are almost self isolating without the virus to avoid putting strain on the NHS and reducing the risk of getting the virus and then needing the NHS

Group C (the generally healthy) go through the cycle of contracting the virus self isolating and being looked after by healthy family members, friends and the local community

Anyone who has complications gets looked after by the NHS while groups A and B are kept away The NHS are not strained by A and B while its looking after complicated cases in C

As group C comes full circle and recovers it divides in to groups that take group B’s position looking after group A allowing group B to go though the cycle

With B and C though the cycle, A is free to have NHS to itself because B and C are now clear from illness and infection and hopefully have a degree of immunity from getting it again this season.

Hope this helps those that are worried or not sure of the plan

Everyone has a job to do for the above to work."

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I can actually understand the madness now - some people are being told only leave home for essentials - if you are in an at risk group, you're gonna grab as much in one go as it could save your life down the line, your next visit could be a poison arrow.

I don't believe that's why people have been doing it, it's been pure panic that it will all run out.  

After all, we could just order online if it was about contracting the virus from a trip to Waitrose.  

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1 minute ago, Saint coolio said:

I believe the opinion is that children are minimally affected by the pathogen, and so ‘shed’ less virus - ultimately meaning that while they can spread the disease, the impact of closing schools is considerably less than it would be for say influenza. 

Thats a good point.

Obviously schools are a very hot topic of opinions, but to me, as you say, if someone is asymptomatic, then they arent coughing all over the place, therefore much less likely to spread the virus vs someone who does have a cough etc.

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25 minutes ago, matty007 said:

If the governemnt is going to go the route of major lockdowns (still not that likely) than they absoutely HAVE to subsedise those many people who can't work from home, and are self emplyed. They have to ensure that everyone is still able to pay rent, and buy food.
 

If they don't do that, the country would go to ruins and the effects would last many many years, and not simply a year or less from the actual virus itself.

I 100% agree, there needs be a massive stimulus package, far beyond what the budget outlines. IMO they need to raise the SSP to at least £300 a week temporarily like Ireland did, and allow holidays for things like council tax, etc. Need some massive help for business of all kinds. Yes this is going destroy everything the conservatives did to bring down the deficit, but every country is in the same boat this time.

I am hearing that the chancellor is going to bring through a large package and is working on it now. He will be at the pressure briefing this week at some point so I expect he announce the measures at that point. 

The fact he is going to do that suggests that the lockdown won't be far away as they shift from their original. 

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18 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

In other words we are fudged whatever we do, perhaps that may explain why schools have not been instructed to close? As Nick S has said you can’t be half arsed. The country essentially needs to grind to halt.

 

This is rubbish too.

The red line is compared to each individual countermeasure proposed separately, not to the cumulative impact of stacking multiple actions. Later in the report is a table that shows the impact of different combinations of actions. The conclusion is basically that all the proposed actions (apart from schools) is enough to smooth and delay the peak, but the schools shutdown would tip the balance into trying to reduce it.

but it’s all subject to refinement, it depends how well isolation works and whether people adhere to the policies.

i expect we will see school closures within two weeks

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6 minutes ago, Wiltshire_snow_lover said:

My friend in Malaysia just messaged me, Malaysia tomorrow lockdown

We maybe one of the last countries in the world to lockdown at this rate! Clear this is the way to go based on evidence from China and also Imperial College's report and modelled simulations.

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7 minutes ago, Beanz said:

I don't believe that's why people have been doing it, it's been pure panic that it will all run out.  

After all, we could just order online if it was about contracting the virus from a trip to Waitrose.  

I can't, i am reliant on cash borrowing from people just to survive - i almost feel guilty as have been loads shopping recently but only got enough to last 3 weeks, i buy a lot of tinned peas but always do anyway so not changing habits but people look at you when you keep going in as if you are going in regularly to get around the 5 per person rule.

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, emax said:

Thats a good point.

Obviously schools are a very hot topic of opinions, but to me, as you say, if someone is asymptomatic, then they arent coughing all over the place, therefore much less likely to spread the virus vs someone who does have a cough etc.

The truth is we just don't know, so its a bit of gamble to not do it.

Also as I keep saying, what on earth is going to happen over Easter holiday?? Because kids are off over that time for between 16-18 days and if the logic is parents will use grandparents so they can work, and they will be at risk in a school closure scenario, then surely the same stands for the easter holiday!

Edited by kold weather
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