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  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
    9 hours ago, D.V.R said:

    Just had a woman on BBC news that's recovered from the virus.. Again the evidence shows us that the worst period of the virus is the first three days and you gradually get better after that. 

     

    haha the horrible thing I had over Christmas lasted exactly 3 days for peak symptoms which is why I was surprised when I started rapidly recovering after that. I thought the flu would have me in bed for weeks.

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    I wonder how significant this could be in the short term. Potentially a significant breakthrough if it works Coronavirus: New treatment for critically ill patients to begin as soon as next week

    An appeal to people to remember you are reading posts from people you do not know, you do not know the background of and do not know their motivations - on a weather forum.  If there are concerns

    Yes Matt , I opened my store at 5:45 this morning and left at 8pm this evening , I’m back at 5:45 and walking in to a shell of a shop with new deliveries coming , Having people tell me why I bother op

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    Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and hot.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
    2 minutes ago, Azazel said:

    haha the horrible thing I had over Christmas lasted exactly 3 days for peak symptoms which is why I was surprised when I started rapidly recovering after that. I thought the flu would have me in bed for weeks.

    Thankfully, the flu recovers quite qucikly, despite being a cruel mistress when you have it.

    I had Swine Flu in 2009. Woke up perfectly fine, but was unable to get up and walk by the afternoon. After two days, I was fighting fit again. That is the only positive to Influenza.

    Edited by matty007
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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    I was bothered yesterday to see elderly people in my locality not taking this a bit seriously. Just went on a simple trip to the corner shop for some bread. Tried to keep my distance from elderly but they insisted on coming right up close, taking my children on the shoulder, etc. If there's one demographic who are most likely to ignore government advice, is it the elderly? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
    8 hours ago, matty007 said:

    Many of the people who have had this, have remarked it as being 'The worst flu imaginable'. If you have a high fever, dry cough, sore throat and particularly shortness of breath, the chances are quite high you have this.

    What makes this virus difficult to pinpoint however outside clinical testing, is the fact that many can also have very mild symptoms, comparable to a common cold, and in many, even milder.

    There are varying degrees of severity with this virus, but if someone has shortness of breath and high fever, this makes COVID much more likely than common flu, in my opinion

    .

    Mine started with a dry cough and then a fever. Woke up the first night absolutely soaked after having weird fever dreams. Then it progressed into shortness of breath. Those were my 3 main symptoms, body pain being the 4th.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Most of the worlds airlines could go bankrupt by the end of May without help from the government and industry

    https://news.sky.com/story/most-world-airlines-could-be-bankrupt-by-end-of-may-aviation-consultancy-11958150

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    23 minutes ago, matty007 said:

    Original post edited

     

    matty, do you think the NHS has even a chance of coping with this?

    Edited by Blessed Weather
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  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)

    I think the biggest problem here is not knowing how many people have had this with little or no symptoms, or battled through and recovered thinking it's the flu.

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    Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and hot.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
    22 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    .

    matty, do you think the NHS has even a chance of coping with this?

    Not a chance, I'm afraid. Barring a miraclous relentment of the virus, this will be a major issue for NHS. Of likes they probably haven't seen before.

    This is true regardless of if there is lockdowns or not.

    Edited by Blessed Weather
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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
    19 minutes ago, matty007 said:

    Not a chance, I'm afraid. Barring a miraclous relentment of the virus, this will be a major issue for NHS. Of likes they probably haven't seen before.

    This is true regardless of if there is lockdowns or not.

    Very much agree, but there's a scale issue too. The NHS works well because it's efficient, little spare capacity and a fast turnover of patients. The further above capacity the NHS goes, the higher the mortality rate will become. So while the NHS will inevitably become overwhelmed, we can still reduce the number of deaths by slowing the the spread of the virus and reducing the peak infection levels. Unfortunately, this is an area where the UK appears at odds with all recommendations about how best to slow the spread, like banning of events, social distancing, limiting gatherings, tracking and contact tracing of cases, etc.

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    Posted
  • Location: Between Sidmouth and Exeter
  • Location: Between Sidmouth and Exeter

    So I'm not an expert but in my head the UK idea makes some sort of sense. Surely it would be better to allow more cases in summer when the NHS has more capacity to deal with it, than try to lock it down and have it explode next winter if we then come out of that lockdown. 

    What are Spain, Italy, (and even China etc) going to do when they try to return to anything resembling normal? Surely Spain's lockdown won't really last only 15 days?

    Maybe they are just trying to flatten their curve more aggressively to then manage it better over summer, rather than try to actually eradicate the disease, and maybe the UK should be taking more drastic measures to try and flatten our curve to the desired extent.. no doubt it will be overwhelmed whatever happens..

    However in my mind maybe there's two choices.. try to slow the outbreak but 'allow' some cases.. or remain on lockdown for most of a year/18 month period until a vaccine is both ready, produced in enough volume and then administered to the majority of the population? (short of something else changing with the disease).

    I probably haven't got that completely right because I'm not an epidemiologist.. however I can't see everyone in the UK (or indeed Spain/Italy), complying with not leaving their house except for food/work for that long. and I hope the work you are meant to do in Spain/Italy is just essential work because I'm much more likely to catch it in an office environment (or even self-isolating in a shared house) than out on a countryside walk by myself!

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    Posted
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)

    So I will tell you a little story, make of it as you will. 

    Last mid November I went down with a hacking dry cough. I've had coughs before but this was unlike any other I've had, relentless coughing fits to gagging, and the first couple of days a high fever, enough to have to change bed clothes overnight. 

    This lasted about a week while off work, by which time I was sleeping on propped pillows to try and reduce the coughing overnight.

    After a further week this backed off somewhat and thinking I was getting better. I've had pneumonia before, spent 8 days in hospital with it a few years ago now and knew I was beginning to get signs of it, shortness of breath, pain in ribs and at one point not so nice what was being coughed up. I soldiered on, taking paracetamol, every type of cough medicine, sleeping almost upright as I had done in hospital. A couple of times I thought I had better call 999.

    I had two long planned working weeks in Devon in the last week Nov and first Dec, at first really struggled, dragging myself around, pacing what I was doi g due to tight chest and breathing, continuing to sleep upright on propped pillow in the B&B, taking all and anything I could to relieve the symptoms. 

    By the second week much improved, the signs of pneumonia gone, and feeling the return of strength but in truth I wasn't really 100% until around Christmas. 

    Now I know our patient 0 is supposed to have been around mid Nov in China, but I can't help thinking this has been around longer and that he was perhaps only the first documented case, as has been said before you won't see it unless you are looking for it.

    I might be wrong, and certainly treating it as though I have not had it so far, but it does make you wonder. 

    As to why I didn't go to the doctors? I was damned determined not to be in hospital, had enough of that last time I was in there with pneumonia. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Jarrow's Labour MP Kate Osborne has been diagnosed with Coronavirus

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent
    56 minutes ago, matty007 said:

    I have no words for how disturbing and extremely concerning this is. As usual, we see very low mortality in the younger demographic. However, the mortality for those older, is frankly terryfying.

    In medical terms, to see a CFR (Case Fatality Rate) of 16% in over 80's, is unprecetended in a virus such as this. It is even higher still at 19% for 90 years and older. 9% for 70's bracket is equally as disturbing.

    italy.png

    Like us, Italy has only been testing severe hospitalised cases. As Nadine Dorries’s mother showed us, even 80+s can have a mild cold-like illness when infected. This is why I hate the fact that no-one is doing community testing. These artificial fatality rates are causing huge anxiety and panic in many.

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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
    32 minutes ago, matty007 said:

    Thankfully, the flu recovers quite qucikly, despite being a cruel mistress when you have it.

    I had Swine Flu in 2009. Woke up perfectly fine, but was unable to get up and walk by the afternoon. After two days, I was fighting fit again. That is the only positive to Influenza.

    Both flu and colds last longer with me, last flu I had I ended up in hospital, been having flu jab since. There must be another virus about that has similar symptoms to Corona, or it's older than we think. 

    Late September I got a sore throat, worst one I've ever had, nothing nasel, to early for flu usually, turned into tickle dry cough, turned into tight chest, ended up at the doctors with rapid breathing fast heart rate, though I didn't know that till they took my pulse. Ended up with an ecg, which looked normal just fast, but I did recover. I've had the nuemonia jab, so it was unlikely to be that type of viral nuemonia. May be it's just an ms thing. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
    5 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

    Very much agree, but there's a scale issue too. The NHS works well because it's efficient, little spare capacity and a fast turnover of patients. The further above capacity the NHS goes, the higher the mortality rate will become. So while the NHS will inevitably become overwhelmed, we can still reduce the number of deaths by slowing the the spread of the virus and reducing the peak infection levels. Unfortunately, this is an area where the UK appears at odds with all recommendations about how best to slow the spread, like banning of events, social distancing, limiting gatherings, tracking and contact tracing of cases, etc.

    Personally, i think the team of scientists advising the UK government have been clear that further measures are all about timing for introduction to here; the timetable is moveable. I hope they are NOT influenced by public opinion, but continue to follow the science they have at their disposal, albeit flexibly adjusting future needs in line with the evidence.

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    Posted
  • Location: Between Sidmouth and Exeter
  • Location: Between Sidmouth and Exeter

    CE546548-8095-4F7C-9A8D-F3F468EF1874.jpe

    This was posted in this thread earlier, and I saw the median age of confirmed cases in Italy was 65.. suggests many milder cases in the younger have been missed (and maybe the elderly too), so a much lower overall fatality rate, though of course some will be yet to die.

    I don't remember reactions anything like this over swine flu.. I guess it had a lower death rate especially for the elderly, but it still infected 0.7-1.4 billion people and killed 150,000-575,000. Not saying they are comparable or we shouldn't be reacting like we are, just an observation.

    Though I have a feeling some of the elderly may struggle to lock themselves away for months. A few will probably be like 'ah well I'm ill/don't have long left anyway so sod it, I'm going out for my walks'

    and if there's a lock-down of the general population, and if it's required for several months/over a year, I expect some of the younger generation will be like 'sod it I'm not having no life for a year over what will basically be a cough for me'

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    Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and hot.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
    5 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

    Like us, Italy has only been testing severe hospitalised cases. As Nadine Dorries’s mother showed us, even 80+s can have a mild cold-like illness when infected. This is why I hate the fact that no-one is doing community testing. These artificial fatality rates are causing huge anxiety and panic in many.

    This is irrelevant when you are taking the figures from known cases, and then recording how many die from that number. That 16% is from the ones hospitalized. So out of all the hospitalized cases, 16% died.

    Now, yes, obviously, if you recorded every single case in the nation and then calculated the death rate of those in that age, it would be MUCH lower than 16%..

    But, it needs to be said that 16% mortality from all the ones of that age hospitalized is VERY high indeed.

     

    Edited by matty007
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    Posted
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy, wintry weather
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
    1 hour ago, matty007 said:

    Not a chance, I'm afraid. Barring a miraclous relentment of the virus, this will be a major issue for NHS. Of likes they probably haven't seen before.

    This is true regardless of if there is lockdowns or not.

    Hi matty,

    Very worrying reading your comments regarding a "Cytokine Storm" being linked to Coronavirus.

    My Wife suffers fron the Auto-Immune disease Psoriasis and also works as a Senior Carer in a Residential Care Home. Her Employers won't allow the Carers to wear a Face Mask, as it frightens the Residents. Crazy!!

    Last Friday she had to give a Resident, Personal Care. Later that Evening, this Resident was carted off to Hospital by a Paramedic in full Hazmat suit. Very worrying.

    On another personal note, my Son is in the advanced stages of Huntingdon's Disease (inherited from his Mother, my first Wife). His Mother, contracted Pneumonia following a Flu like illness, and sadly but invitably, passed away. She had been suffering from HD for 21 Years. I'm very concerned that the same fate could befall my Son should he catch the Coronavirus, as he is now very frail.

    On another personal level, my Brother-In-Law is married to an Italian lady whose Family hail from a Town, S.E. of Naples. On Saturday, a Relative of hers "hosted" a Birthday Party for Relatives, Friends and Neighbours (evidently some 50 people, were present). The Carabinieri (Italian Police) broke into the Apartment Building and promptly slapped a 250 Euro fine, on all those present. Gatherings of 50 or more people are now banned, throughout Italy.

    Very worrying times, personally and on a much broader scale!!

    Regards,

    Tom.   :hi: 

    Edited by TomSE12
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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
    1 minute ago, Evening thunder said:

    So I'm not an expert but in my head the UK idea makes some sort of sense. Surely it would be better to allow more cases in summer when the NHS has more capacity to deal with it, than try to lock it down and have it explode next winter if we then come out of that lockdown. 

    What are Spain, Italy, (and even China etc) going to do when they try to return to anything resembling normal? Surely Spain's lockdown won't really last only 15 days?

    Maybe they are just trying to flatten their curve more aggressively to then manage it better over summer, rather than try to actually eradicate the disease, and maybe the UK should be taking more drastic measures to try and flatten our curve to the desired extent.. no doubt it will be overwhelmed whatever happens..

    However in my mind maybe there's two choices.. try to slow the outbreak but 'allow' some cases.. or remain on lockdown for most of a year/18 month period until a vaccine is both ready, produced in enough volume and then administered to the majority of the population? (short of something else changing with the disease).

    I probably haven't got that completely right because I'm not an epidemiologist.. however I can't see everyone in the UK (or indeed Spain/Italy), complying with not leaving their house except for food/work for that long. and I hope the work you are meant to do in Spain/Italy is just essential work because I'm much more likely to catch it in an office environment (or even self-isolating in a shared house) than out on a countryside walk by myself!

    Lockdown is essentially hitting the emergency stop button and I suspect they will be life’s slowly in time. The U.K. will probably have to do this at times too. We need to prevent our emergency services from becoming overwhelmed.

    The strategy whilst it certainly a great theory, it requires a lot of data to predict when your likely trajectory in cases. It already appears the modelling are already behind reality.

    The other issue in terms of reality is that there appears to be far higher numbers of working age people suffering more severe symptoms on the continent than were expected. So impacts to the health service could happen much quicker than expected.

    It is all about timing but reality seems to suggest taking stronger measures earlier than expected (probably talking a couple of days earlier) is probably the right course.

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    Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent
    1 minute ago, matty007 said:

    This is irrelevant when you are taking the figures from known cases, and then recording how many die from that number. That 16% is from the ones hospitalized. So out of all the hospitalized cases, 16% died.

    Now, yes, obviously, if you recorded every single case in the nation and then calculated the death rate, it would be MUCH lower than 16%..

    But, it needs to be said that 16% mortality from all the ones hospitalized is VERY high indeed.

     

    Yes that's true and at the hospitalisation stage you would have to assume that everyone going has pneumonia. How would this death rate compared to any other viral or bacterial pneumonia?

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres

    Have not see much about the virus over the weekend  but did read this morning that in some cases in Italy and perhapd France  a large portion  ( approaching 40%)  of under 60s  are in a critical condition.  Can anyone confirm if this is true   or have i misread.

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