COVID-19 Pandemic

[Snipper]

Just now, Dami said:

well IF i get the nod, my little darling will be following a 'normal' routine like she has at school so she can do the work they set. 

So would our grand children but there are far too many dregs of humanity would just say I don’t give a toss and stuff you.  On occasions I find it difficult to treat everybody equally. 

[Snipper]

1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:

Are they one of the companies changing to ventilator production? 

Probably mini ventilators for small people. 

[ArHu3]

1 hour ago, Pennine Ten Foot Drifts said:

mobile phones, computers, myriad electrical white goods, textiles, steel, car parts (and more general manufacturing raw materials), pharmaceuticals, chemicals etc etc. China is in essence the worlds de facto manufacturer supporting the current global economic system. The only way to change that is to radically change the economic system - maybe this will be the shock needed to do that?

It would be better for the whole world. We regulated our industries out of existence thinking that more regulations would mean better job security and safety and less polution but instead the problems just moved to China and made us poorer and dependent on them

[Guest Delete Me]

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, swebby said:

1) What are the smoking demographics for Germany.

2) What are the demographics for co-morbidities in Germany?

Basically is Germany healthier?

I believe it is partly because Germany counts a 'death' differently.

For exmaple, we will say they died with underlying health conditions and were positive for COVID-19. Therefore a Covid death. I think Germany is MUCH more stringent with what they class as a COVID death, though I can't remember the exact definition. 

Also, they are testing huge amounts now (I think they did something like 20,000 tests yesterday), not dissimilar levels to South Korea, so they are probably catching more of the mild cases as well.

Edited March 18, 2020 by kold weather

[Boro Snow]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

No i work at a production plant with 400 people, i been told to sit on my own at break times...

wtf???

I work at a food distribution warehouse average days normally 7 hours today its 13 glad I am not in staying home with my kids until monday when the wife gets the capability sorted to work from home. I will probably get a disciplinary for it but I do not care my kids come first

[BornFromTheVoid]

2 minutes ago, swebby said:

1) What are the smoking demographics for Germany.

2) What are the demographics for co-morbidities in Germany?

Basically is Germany healthier?

My guess is a higher level of testing per capita is playing a role. I can't find specific testing stats for Germany (but they do have drive through test centres and such), but assuming they are similar to Scandinavia, Austria, etc, then they are likely testing many more people per capita than the UK. This allows them to identify more patients with mild symptoms resulting in a lower death rate.

[Snipper]

3 minutes ago, Spikecollie said:

I went to Carrefour in Bénévant l'Abbeye on the way home from work this lunchtime (slight deviation but I have an attestation) to get some extra dog food that Mylo really likes. Plenty of dog food. Little soap, no toilet roll and meats and cheeses very low. Some pasta but only the more expensive brands. Chilled foods like ham and yoghurts seem to be disappearing too. One thing people sem to be ignoring regarding stocking up is laundry products - I have made sure I have enough to wash clothes for a month but haven't hoarded. Cashiers were wearing plastic gloves but not changing them after each customer - clearly ignoring the ability of the virus to survive on plastic and unlike my local shop they were not disinfecting the card machine after each use. I made a point of using my sanitiser after touching the machine and I hope it was noted.

Very quiet on the roads around here today but I didn't encounter and checkpoints.

EDIT: I'm sitting in the glorious sunshine outside at the moment and about to do some gardening...

I get the worry about loo rolls as it is part of one of the most personal things in life - wiping your backside and dealing with your private parts. It tends to be one step away from incontinence which we all fear.

Been cleaning out the greenhouse, sowing seeds for the coming months. 

[ArHu3]

1 minute ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

My guess is a higher level of testing per capita is playing a role. I can't find specific testing stats for Germany (but they do have drive through test centres and such), but assuming they are similar to Scandinavia, Austria, etc, then they are likely testing many more people per capita than the UK. This allows them to identify more patients with mild symptoms resulting in a lower death rate.

Yesterday I found some info with the number of tests done and it was actually quite low in Germany, Austria and Norway (all countries with very low CFR)

[emax]

4 minutes ago, swebby said:

1) What are the smoking demographics for Germany.

2) What are the demographics for co-morbidities in Germany?

Basically is Germany healthier?

From what google says, smoking is more widespread  in Germany than in the UK. Also, the median age is lower in UK than Germany according to Google results. 

There's numerous studies from China that show smoking doesnt actually have that much affect on catching of the virus, however I should think those with lung problems etc due to smoking are more likely to develop more serious symptoms, but that goes without saying I should think. There still isnt any concrete evidence yet for any main factors, other than age.

[Saint coolio]

More about testing.

It seems that C-19 is essentially a two-stage disease, a viral infection that can be mild to moderate which the majority of people recover from in 5-7 days. A minority of people enter a second stage which is much more serious and related to an immune response to that viral infection.

It appears logical to me that most of the promising anti-viral interventions are going to be more effective in the first stage (this is broadly confirmed by some of the existing studies). 

Therefore development of widespread, fast testing is critical and it should be targeted at front-line healthcare workers and individuals most at risk of generating the more complex conditions 

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, Saint coolio said:

More about testing.

It seems that C-19 is essentially a two-stage disease, a viral infection that can be mild to moderate which the majority of people recover from in 5-7 days. A minority of people enter a second stage which is much more serious and related to an immune response to that viral infection.

I wonder what it is that is causing that to happen? I'd imagine there must be some pretty large research going into this as we speak, because if you can prevent that or reduce the risks, you can pretty much cut down the risk of death in a huge way.

Also USA reported 890 positive cases overnight, they will probably be close to 2,000 by the end of the day.

Feels like we have had a pretty large stepchange upwards again today, countries like UK getting what Germany had last week, and Spain/Germany are getting close to Italy style numbers now.

Edited March 18, 2020 by kold weather

[Saint coolio]

Just now, kold weather said:

I wonder what it is that is causing that to happen? I'd imagine there must be some pretty large research going into this as we speak, because if you can prevent that or reduce the risks, you can pretty much cut down the risk of death in a huge way.

Also USA reported 890 positive cases overnight, they will probably be close to 2,000 by the end of the day.

I have a theory but fear I will be laughed at if I set it out

[swebby]

21 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Im feeling very angry with my employer and this government right now.

If you are not due in until Friday? Phone in sick Friday morning, saying you are running a temperature so you are now having to stay off for 7+ days and self isolate. 

As you are isolating you are not  meant to go to the GP's to get checked for a sick note.  You will  also not be tested for Covid-19, so no one knows if you have a common cold or whatever? Basically - swing the lead! If you are in the at risk groups and they are treating you in this way, then screw them back.  In weeks time, you will probably not be allowed to work anyway.

My local college was arguing the same thing on Monday, vulnerable groups had to work, and this is in a college with 6000+ students! Basically. at risk staff were being deemed as expendable! In under 24hrs they performed a u-turn, i suspect because the unions were about to threaten action.

 

Edited March 18, 2020 by swebby

[CharmlessMan]

17 minutes ago, swebby said:

1) What are the smoking demographics for Germany.

2) What are the demographics for co-morbidities in Germany?

Basically is Germany healthier?

In theory though, if a country has a healthier than average population they can be expected to live longer and thus there will be a higher proportion of elderly people.  Following this logic, having a less healthy population in itself would not necessarily mean a higher death rate, just that the average age of people dying would be younger.

There are so many factors that influence the death rate, from how much testing has been done and how many deaths are being directly attributed to the disease, to the demographics of a population and of course the ability of the health service to cope (which is largely dependent on how many people need treatment at the same time as well as the availability of ventilators).

Edited March 18, 2020 by CharmlessMan
Correction

[swebby]

15 minutes ago, Saint coolio said:

I have a theory but fear I will be laughed at if I set it out

Seems like a big step change for those aged over 50, possible historic immunity to something that done the rounds in the 60's?

Edit - just to explain - there are circumstance where vaccination/historic immunity can result in an "over reaction" of the immune system.

2nd Edit - NB This is just me musing!  It is an unlikely theory but thought i'd put it out there for discussion.

Edited March 18, 2020 by swebby

[emax]

3 minutes ago, swebby said:

Seems like a big step change for those aged over 50, possible historic immunity to something that done the rounds in the 60's?

Edit - just to explain - there are circumstance where vaccination/historic immunity can result in an "over reaction" of the immune system.

I'm not disagreeing with that at all, as thats a possible point. However, surely just the fact you are older naturally makes you more susceptible to death from anything. The elderly are in a higher risk bracket for death in normal seasonal flu, so that would be exacerbated with this virus. Obviously many many other factors too, some that may never be known.

[BornFromTheVoid]

11 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

Yesterday I found some info with the number of tests done and it was actually quite low in Germany, Austria and Norway (all countries with very low CFR)

In total, for Austria and Norway, sure. But per capita they've done much more.

Source: 

Total COVID-19 tests performed per million people

OURWORLDINDATA.ORG

---

Most recent data as of 17 March 2020 - 18.30GMT. Estimates were collected by Our World in Data from official country reports. In some cases the total number of tests may correspond to the number of...

 

[Wiltshire_snow_lover]

 

[Zak M]

School has closed here tomorrow and Friday.

[pip22]

Steve Lookner Retweeted

Amichai Stein@AmichaiStein1

#BREAKING: London is expected to go into lockdown in the coming days, a source close to the mayor's office told The Telegraph

WOW!!

Edited March 18, 2020 by pip22

[swebby]

35 minutes ago, emax said:

I'm not disagreeing with that at all, as thats a possible point. However, surely just the fact you are older naturally makes you more susceptible to death from anything. The elderly are in a higher risk bracket for death in normal seasonal flu, so that would be exacerbated with this virus. Obviously many many other factors too, some that may never be known.

Yes, entirely agree that is the most probable and would be astonished if it was something else but @Saint coolio said they had a bit of a way out theory, so thought i'd throw one of mine in the ring for discussion purposes.

Edited March 18, 2020 by swebby

[Summer Sun]

Ryanair expecting to ground all but 'essential connectivity' flights from Tuesday

 

 

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, pip22 said:

Steve Lookner Retweeted

Amichai Stein@AmichaiStein1

#BREAKING: London is expected to go into lockdown in the coming days, a source close to the mayor's office told The Telegraph

WOW!!

Yes that has been the rumour, because London is such a populated area with extensive links to Europe. So a full lockdown seems to make sense, like they did in N.Italy.

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

5779 new tests, of which 676 were positive. That's 11.7%.

 

And the new cases are hospital only, and we know they're trying their best only to see the serious cases. 

People anecdoteally reporting symptoms all over the place - My sense is that this is spiraling really quickly, I reckon we're already in the hundreds of thousands of cases. 

Edited March 18, 2020 by Man With Beard