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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
2 minutes ago, emax said:

I'm not saying we can or cant keep it to that number, but if we can, and thats presumably over 6 months or something, that isnt actually a huge number really. On average 300,000 people die every 6 months for perspective. Even if it was over a 1 month period, its big, but not out of this world shocking. 50,000 people die every month. Again, not saying his figures will be right or wrong, just commenting on those particular figures.

Problem is, those 20k aren't going to just blink out. They'll be in ICU wards first, along with the many times more should be there from COVID-19, and others that should be there for other reasons.

From the imperial college study, below are the expected levels of critical care beds required under different mitigation strategies. Of particular note, the red line at the bottom. Thats the maximum capacity.

CritCapacity.thumb.JPG.8b1b44c8e27caef4c5d12643f3609b0c.JPG

 

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34 minutes ago, Dami said:

I just want the choice if my daughter goes in or not. Even if people don't agree with me.

I've took mine out. She suffers with a condition which affects her immune system. It's a no brainer, I will ensure she is home schooled for the foreseeable. Her health is far more important to me than anything else. 

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1 minute ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Problem is, those 20k aren't going to just blink out. They'll be in ICU wards first, along with the many times more should be there from COVID-19, and others that should be there for other reasons.

From the imperial college study, below are the expected levels of critical care beds required under different mitigation strategies. Of particular note, the red line at the bottom. Thats the maximum capacity.

CritCapacity.thumb.JPG.8b1b44c8e27caef4c5d12643f3609b0c.JPG

 

I dont see what your point is? I'm only discussing the figure of 20,000 that was suggested. If that doesn't include extra deaths as a result of ICU beds being full etc, then obviously it ends up being worse. As I say, I'm just discussing the figure of 20,000, not speculating or second guessing about what ifs etc. 

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

Considering we are coming out of worst of flu season this does not bode well. Wonder what is like in London departments knowing we are a few weeks in front? 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
27 minutes ago, emax said:

I'd be very surprised if thats accurate. They should really remove the number, or at least put something next to it stating its accuracy. I mean it "may" be correct, but with all the testing capacity we have, I doubt they're prioritising testing if people have officially recovered or not, certainly those who arent in hospital at least.

Yes recovered numbers won't be accurate at all because many cases are told to go home and self isolate. Most of those will recover fine at home so will never be given a chance to test negative and become an official recovery. The best thing is to stop worrying about official cases, official deaths and official recoveries otherwise you get some pretty horrific fatality and recovery rates. The Imperial College report has had a lot of data to work with now, and they are confident of a 0.9% fatality rate (with 95% confidence that fatality rate is between 0.4% and 1.4%), meaning 99.1% recover.

Edited by Snowy L
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Posted
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny with night time t-storms
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
30 minutes ago, mrjolly said:

Why should you?

Well, because even though you might not care about the risk to your own health, there's a risk you could pass the virus onto other people who could end up seriously ill or dead.

The advice has been given for a reason.

Initially, here in France, I was very nervous about social distancing and how far it would go. I would not be able to deal with not going out at all. Then I realised if it did go that way, I have a lovely garden, big enough to play a decent ball game with my dog who would eventually relent and poo in it too, out of necessity! It's not like that though. I've just been down to the local shop and people are respecting the 1m distance at the checkout and while browsing the shelves and the card machine is being disinfected after every use. The shop has a supply of the forms you need from tomorrow - which means everyone will be able to go out, legally, for a walk or to shop or go to work.

I have been sent an "attestation" by my employer which I will just keep on me for when I am out and about for work. I'll probably make a quick visit to the supermarket on Friday but after that I/we (if it is we) will fairly much keep to just my work outings and walks/cycle rides. Since my work is so much reduced, I'm actually quite looking forward to some time working in the garden as I have done this afternoon, some quality dog walking/running and some cycling with the OH.

I think we all have to give in to idea that if we make little sacrifices now, this whole thing will be over a lot quicker for all of us and we might be able to enjoy the forthcoming summer. Additionally, if people refuse to act voluntarily or continue to act in what is basically an anti-social way, then as we saw in the measures introduced in France last night after people flocked in large groups to the Paris parks on a warm spring day, they will be forced to conform.

Be nice, be kind and think a little bit wider and longer term for your sake and the sake of those around you...

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2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Considering we are coming out of worst of flu season this does not bode well. Wonder what is like in London departments knowing we are a few weeks in front? 

 

He doesnt specify the exact percentage of critical care beds, whether that 90% is critical care beds, or just spread across both etc. Either way, it probably wont be the beds that are a problem (as they can be increased easily to a point) it'll be the staff and critical care equipment that will most likely fall short.

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Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
1 minute ago, Spikecollie said:

Initially, here in France, I was very nervous about social distancing and how far it would go. I would not be able to deal with not going out at all. Then I realised if it did go that way, I have a lovely garden, big enough to play a decent ball game with my dog who would eventually relent and poo in it too, out of necessity! It's not like that though. I've just been down to the local shop and people are respecting the 1m distance at the checkout and while browsing the shelves and the card machine is being disinfected after every use. The shop has a supply of the forms you need from tomorrow - which means everyone will be able to go out, legally, for a walk or to shop or go to work.

I have been sent an "attestation" by my employer which I will just keep on me for when I am out and about for work. I'll probably make a quick visit to the supermarket on Friday but after that I/we (if it is we) will fairly much keep to just my work outings and walks/cycle rides. Since my work is so much reduced, I'm actually quite looking forward to some time working in the garden as I have done this afternoon, some quality dog walking/running and some cycling with the OH.

I think we all have to give in to idea that if we make little sacrifices now, this whole thing will be over a lot quicker for all of us and we might be able to enjoy the forthcoming summer. Additionally, if people refuse to act voluntarily or continue to act in what is basically an anti-social way, then as we saw in the measures introduced in France last night after people flocked in large groups to the Paris parks on a warm spring day, they will be forced to conform.

Be nice, be kind and think a little bit wider and longer term for your sake and the sake of those around you...

Yes, unfortunately there are just people out there who have no regard for anyone but themselves. They then peddle the "it's my choice/it's a free country" line to confirm their inherent narcissism. 

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
8 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Problem is, those 20k aren't going to just blink out. They'll be in ICU wards first, along with the many times more should be there from COVID-19, and others that should be there for other reasons.

From the imperial college study, below are the expected levels of critical care beds required under different mitigation strategies. Of particular note, the red line at the bottom. Thats the maximum capacity.

CritCapacity.thumb.JPG.8b1b44c8e27caef4c5d12643f3609b0c.JPG

 

In China folk were in ICU's for up to 8 weeks!!!

There must surely be some way of lessening such times in ICU esp. over 'Peak Infection'?

We will end up with school gyms/sports centres turned into huge High Dependency wards I reckon (just to keep ICU beds free for the initial 'stabilisation' of critical Patients?)?

Either that or we get into the kind of 'triage' that we see Italy (and soon the USA?) taking with only those deemed 'worthwhile' seeing any attention from Drs?

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Posted
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny with night time t-storms
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
18 minutes ago, Snow Queen one said:

My daughters school is closed to year 10 and 11 from tomorrow she is a head of department.  

I am in centre parc this week they are  closing down for 2 weeks on Friday

Center Parcs would not be top of my list of safe destinations. Exposing yourself, your children and most importantly other people to your children is a bit risky right now. That's why they're closing.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
7 minutes ago, emax said:

I dont see what your point is? I'm only discussing the figure of 20,000 that was suggested. If that doesn't include extra deaths as a result of ICU beds being full etc, then obviously it ends up being worse. As I say, I'm just discussing the figure of 20,000, not speculating or second guessing about what ifs etc. 

20k figure is more speculation than the study. You are trying to play down the importance of 20k deaths by saying plenty more die anyway. I'm trying to say it matters more, giving an example of why from a study the government is using to inform their decisions.

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

 

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Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
6 minutes ago, emax said:

He doesnt specify the exact percentage of critical care beds, whether that 90% is critical care beds, or just spread across both etc. Either way, it probably wont be the beds that are a problem (as they can be increased easily to a point) it'll be the staff and critical care equipment that will most likely fall short.

90% ICU occupancy would be about right, as generally it is a 75-90% occupancy for ICU beds in England.  I did post a link to the government stats page for ICU occupancy reports (fortnightly) way back at the start of the original thread.  

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
13 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

The Imperial College report has had a lot of data to work with now, and they are confident of a 0.9% fatality rate, meaning 99.1% recover.

Yes, that is something to remember, the vast majority will get better and have no problems. We all need to look after each other and keep an eye, especially if people are on their own and are in one of those critical categories.

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
8 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

In China folk were in ICU's for up to 8 weeks!!!

There must surely be some way of lessening such times in ICU esp. over 'Peak Infection'?

We will end up with school gyms/sports centres turned into huge High Dependency wards I reckon (just to keep ICU beds free for the initial 'stabilisation' of critical Patients?)?

Either that or we get into the kind of 'triage' that we see Italy (and soon the USA?) taking with only those deemed 'worthwhile' seeing any attention from Drs?

Re your last part this happens now, to some extent. Reality. I wont detail my 'family' anecdotal experience (from 2 years ago) to save boring peeps.

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Absolutely terrible scenes in the toilets in my school once again.

A group of little kids decided to vandalize the whole bathroom, including the hand sanitizer, which they managed to pull out of the wall somehow and empty it all over the floor.

People like that are despicable and extremely selfish.

Edited by Zak M
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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

All non-urgent operations in England will be postponed from 15 April to free up 30,000 beds to help tackle coronavirus, NHS England has said. The emergency policy will be in place for at least three months. Meanwhile, the government's chief scientific adviser said it would be a "good outcome" if 20,000 or fewer people died of the virus in the UK. Disruption to UK firms continues and the Foreign Office advised against all but essential travel abroad. Chancellor Rishi Sunak is expected to unveil financial measures later to ease the burden caused by the virus, and the government's chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance said the over-70s should avoid having Sunday lunch with their families. He also advised people taking painkillers to use paracetamol instead of ibuprofen, after French health officials indicated anti-inflammatory drugs could worsen the virus - a suggestion Sir Patrick said "may or may not be right".

In another day of fast-changing developments across the globe:

- The Euro 2020 tournament has been postponed until 2021

- All Church of England services have been suspended - aside from weddings and funerals

- China reacted angrily to a tweet from US President Donald Trump that described coronavirus as "Chinese"

- French residents face a fine if they are outside without good reason

- The number of deaths in Italy has passed 2,000 and the total in Spain has reached nearly 500

- The International Olympic Committee is meeting later to discuss the summer games in Tokyo

- All horse racing in Great Britain will be suspended from Wednesday until the end of April

- In tennis, the French Open has been postponed until September

NHS England chief executive Sir Simon Stevens said postponing routine surgery would help to expand critical care capacity to the maximum - to prepare for "the likely influx of more coronavirus patients". However, cancer operations will continue to go ahead, Sir Simon added. He also said the health service was working with community services to "unblock" discharge processes to bring back capacity for coronavirus patients. Sir Simon said the health system in England has about 7,000 ventilators and there are plans to increase this to 12,000.

More: 

_111194060_coronavirushospital_index_afp
WWW.BBC.CO.UK

The emergency measure will free up at least 30,000 beds to help the NHS to tackle coronavirus.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
1 minute ago, ThundersnowDays said:

Schools starting to shut anyway because there's not enough staff.

Yes it was always going to happen, once the staffing goes below a certain level it becomes too difficult to re-organise the classes with different teachers and collapse them enough and still keep it safe.

That has to be the key priority, keeping children safe. I know the government is trying to limp us out to easter, but I feel the situation has gone down hill rather faster than initially planned and its going to be forced into action fairly soon.

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
44 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Problem is, those 20k aren't going to just blink out. They'll be in ICU wards first, along with the many times more should be there from COVID-19, and others that should be there for other reasons.

From the imperial college study, below are the expected levels of critical care beds required under different mitigation strategies. Of particular note, the red line at the bottom. Thats the maximum capacity.

CritCapacity.thumb.JPG.8b1b44c8e27caef4c5d12643f3609b0c.JPG

 

BTFV - I think there's more in that study that deals with suppression (closer to the government's new strategy), which does "in theory" keep the curve under the red line.

20K deaths ... what makes such a total of deaths unacceptable? Heart disease? Cancer? An existing flu? A new flu that hasn't fully developed yet? An earthquake? A terrorist attack?

Not a simple moral question.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The other complicating factor with Covid 19.

The length of time  to be in ICU for those admitted to hospital before recovery is longer than in cases of seasonal flu .

Its this aspect which puts particular strain on health systems .

Thats why you really have to do everything possible to stop the spread in its tracks .

And talking about second waves and planning for them needs that breathing space.

It might seem short sighted but you have a clear choice , either stop the spread ASAP or see a spike in fatality rates .

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