COVID-19 Pandemic

[BornFromTheVoid]

The full Imperial College COVID-19 report is here, in case it's been missed:
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

[kold weather]

10 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

"Ideally" isolating vulnerable groups vs. what's actually happening are two different things.

Plenty of elderly people still out and about today in London. Meanwhile, the youngsters are mostly working from home in isolation. And thousands of undergraduates are all at home too. 

This isn't working as planned.

The plan is a great theoretical plan, but reality is it's next to impossible to remove all of one sub bracket of people from the risk because society is fluid and mixes readily. 

[kold weather]

Netherlands reports 19 deaths so far today, almost doubling their total from yesterday. Looks like the countries that have gone up in the latest uptick (UK, Netherlands, Switzerland, etc) are starting to see the death tolls starting to add up.

[Stabilo19]

3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

The plan is a great theoretical plan, but reality is it's next to impossible to remove all of one sub bracket of people from the risk because society is fluid and mixes readily. 

British people seem more defiant of rules and more laid back than other countries. That attitude doesn't mix well with the measures needed. 

[Snipper]

9 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

No  the taxes being paid now helps pay for today's State Pension payments, the NHS, the Welfare state, roads, etc, etc. Even your council tax (around 25% of it)  pays for subsidies towards people's pension pot and not directly on local services. Some big choices and decisions to come.

Must admit I was rather thinking of future taxes particularly as there will be less tax payers coughing up.

[Summer Sun]

 

[feb1991blizzard]

13 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

No  the taxes being paid now helps pay for today's State Pension payments, the NHS, the Welfare state, roads, etc, etc. Even your council tax (around 25% of it)  pays for subsidies towards people's pension pot and not directly on local services. Some big choices and decisions to come.

seen the debt and deficit?

[lawrenk]

16 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

The full Imperial College COVID-19 report is here, in case it's been missed:
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

Having just finished it, I would dissuade anyone feeling a bit “fragile” from reading it.

If they’re right this is going to be a LONG haul.

[nick sussex]

Huge sums of money are being made available in some countries  to stop businesses from collapsing.

Losing normally viable businesses in the end sees a series of blows to any government .

Lose taxes they would have paid , lose taxes employees would have paid and then have to pay benefits.

And this could then compound things so that banks who in this instance weren’t the main reason as they were in 2008 get sucked into the spiral , mortgage arrears and loans they had to normally viable companies don’t get paid .

Extra government debt by keeping businesses afloat maybe the least worst strategy at this point .

Edited March 17, 2020 by nick sussex

[Summer Sun]

Breaking: Brussels Airlines are suspending all flight operations.

[alexisj9]

36 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

"Ideally" isolating vulnerable groups vs. what's actually happening are two different things.

Plenty of elderly people still out and about today in London. Meanwhile, the youngsters are mostly working from home in isolation. And thousands of undergraduates are all at home too. 

This isn't working as planned.

Which will be the reason for stricter rules later if only people would listen. 

[Bristawl Si]

Sir Patrick Vallance live on Sky News right now, in front of parliamentary health committee. Facing Qs from previous health secretary, Jeremy Hunt.

[Wiltshire_snow_lover]

 

Merkals heir appearnt has it 

[Summer Sun]

 

[Bristawl Si]

Vallance: 'Hopeful' can keep deaths to around 20,000 rather than the 250,000 being projected in some circles. Normal seasonal flu, he says, around 8000.

Plea: dont shoot the NW member messenger

Edited March 17, 2020 by Bristle boy

[Summer Sun]

The Scottish Government have confirmed a 2nd death from coronavirus

[Bristawl Si]

Vallance: 44,000 tests done, so far, in the UK. Keeps UK in top 5 for numbers tested.

[AWD]

48 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

 the tax you are paying now was already spent like a million years ago unfortuately.

The dinosaurs spent our taxes? 

[Bristawl Si]

Looking to defo put in place an antibody test, for those who have had COVID-19, so further understand the virus, which will hopefully place us in a better pos if 2nd wave comes.

[Tamara]

 I have started skim reading the Coronavirus thread and reading factual/information based posts rather than reading each post. It is of course extremely worrying for all of us and I have had plenty of my own bad patches like most. But too many posts are apocalyptic in nature and the need for some self preservation is urgent.

Some keep dwelling on death and trying to equate personal risk to it. While the fear is quite understandable, this simply feeds not just personal very disturbingly unpleasant feelings but also massively enhances them in others who read the horror outcomes based on them - and so it becomes a vicious circle of worsening panic and despair. When the process is repeated over days and sustained into weeks it becomes ever more damaging and unhelpful.  This is where some self discipline is required.

There is still a lot not known about this virus, but whilst uncertainty feeds fear -  lack of knowledge needn't necessarily be all a bad thing . While the mild cases slipping under the radar are also feeding the supply line of cases because they are unrecorded and indeed often enough a-symptomatic and 'invisible', it makes it equally true that the ratio of all cases to fatalities is very much less than appears than at face value. 

I do think that as time moves on, and as cases keep rising, a much more rational perspective will be found about this virus. At the same time as much more is learned about the virus, including steps to eventual clinical protection. Of course in the meantime we are deeply concerned about potential effects to ourselves and those around us, based on the relative unknowns of the virus and that presently there is no vaccine to prevent it.   

 However, there are still many different ways to try to self preserve :

Reduce exposure to social media and indeed step back from this thread if you are spending large amounts of time each day on it.   The consequences at their most extreme can be exactly the scenario so many fear with Coronavirus itself - as this tragic tweet confirms

 

 

 

Focus on evidenced facts and information rather than headline drama - then give it all a break and get on with the day in the safest way you can. The news channels on television are also guilty of increasing anxiety with their style of reporting. So switch the telly to a different channel as much as re-focus any internet attention. 

Help others as a way of helping yourself. It could be in the supermarket, on your local street,  wherever and whenever. Especially the most frail and vulnerable obviously. Share anything you are lucky enough to have of your own with them.  It feels good to do this at any normal time of course, but it is the best antidote during this crisis to the selfish heartless minority who look to seek to profit at the expense of those least able to look after themselves.

Have a 'de-clutter' and put together a collection for shelter establishments for homeless on the street  - one highly vulnerable group at any time ( irrespective of Coronavirus) but who risk being among the least considered in this crisis.

Take deep breaths of fresh air - outdoors, if you can and away from crowds of people, filling the lungs and get oxygen into them and into the body. Keep repeating this process as often as you can each and every day.. If the sun is out, spend some time in it and do something you enjoy, whatever it might be. Or just simply look at the sky, trees and birds etc. I spent time doing these things yesterday in the garden, while doing some tidying up a bit after all the wet and windy weather there has been for so long - and it helped me a lot.  It helps with the stress at the same time as priming oxygen into the blood to the organs of the body. Eat good fresh food - enjoy some wine with it. Get plenty of restful sleep if possible - even though this can be difficult with all that is happening.

All the more reason to take distractions - otherwise mental exhaustion will prove the least desirable preparation for navigation through this virus. This is obviously not going to go away anywhere near as fast as we would all like, but as much as it seems it is just getting worse and worse, it will eventually leave us alone

 

Edited March 17, 2020 by Tamara

[alexisj9]

Well just notified my pool and dart teams that I can't play for the min cause of my ms. I expect the pubs will close soon anyway. But I'm not putting myself in risk if they don't. It's going to be hard not going. 

[Bristawl Si]

Vallance: The immune reaction that some suffer, tends to be around day5/6, that is where the real problem cases appear i.e. the severe breathing issue.

Virus shedding, in most people, happens after 4/5 days of symptoms.

Edited March 17, 2020 by Bristle boy

[BornFromTheVoid]

2 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Vallance: 44,000 tests done, so far, in the UK. Keeps UK in top 5 for numbers tested.

Something positive, but in terms of tests per capita, not even top 10. Not awful stats, but could certainly be better. 

Total COVID-19 tests performed per million people

OURWORLDINDATA.ORG

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Most recent data available from official sources as of 13 March 2020 - 9.00GMT

 

[Summer Sun]

 

[Gray-Wolf]

I'm back!

Firstly 'Spanish flu is 'H1N1' which we all saw a decade ago? The 'recombination' that turned it into the killer it was not in the last zoonotic transfer in the America's that lead to the 09/10 outbreak but it does serve to highlight that both Flu and Coronavirus do alter over time with the phase when it transfers to the new host the period with the greatest potential to 'alter' its M.O. as it settles into that new host species?

Bad news from Europe for all those thinking this was an 'elderly & at risk' illness;

Not Just Seniors: French Doctors Report 50% Of ICU Patients Under 60 Years Old, Netherlands Under 50

WWW.ZEROHEDGE.COM

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More than just a Boomer-remover?

So just be careful out there folks!

We still do not know how it is impacting us here in the UK yet and the virus we are studying is at least 2 weeks old.... drift/recombination happens in 1 person over a matter of hours and that new 'flavour' is then set to be spread far and wide (as we saw in September 1918?:)

Let's not get too 'cocky' about this illness, if not for your sake then for the sake of the loved ones around you?

Edited March 17, 2020 by Gray-Wolf