COVID-19 Pandemic

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, Evening thunder said:

Could the effect of such a prolonged period of lockdown or aggressive measures actually be nearly as bad or worse than the virus itself?

Its certainly possible and probably something we will only see in the coming months as countries get through their own peaks.

From what I've read, the concept is as critical cases drop below a certain level you ease off the restrictions (open schools, etc) and then once the virus starts to get above a certain critical level you then re-impose the restrictions. So its not a constant 100% lock down for a year, but more an on and off as required and depending on how many waves we get.

Its so very far from ideal, but what other solution is there other than letting the virus go through and we get 250-500 thousand deaths.

[Snipper]

As a connected aside do some essential oils kill the virus? So many claims made. Thinking of the likes of Teatree and Lavender Oil.  Absolutely no intention of rushing out and buying any.  Just interested. 

[Spikecollie]

20 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

People can just make up something anyway .

How are they going to enforce this , have groups of attestation police marauding the streets .

The interior ministry given present circumstances  also sounds a bit 1983. What next the new ministry of propaganda.

Agree, it's all very "Cold War"!

The Thiriet delivery drivers dropping off shopping to my neighbour across the road were wearing masks just now as Mylo and I came back from our morning walk.

I don't think there'll be much enforcement outside the worst affected areas and bigger towns and cities. I'll still bring my paper tomorrow though, just in case but only because I want to combine a few things tomorrow when I go out in the car for work. The fine is 135€ (but in reality 38€!).

Edited March 17, 2020 by Spikecollie

[nick sussex]

Even if a herd immunity policy was brought in to reduce the impact on the economy this is viewing the UK as not being impacted by what other countries do .

It treats the UK as if it’s some bubble of normality in which people carry on as if nothing’s happened .

This is fanciful . That’s even before the moral arguments , which are huge .

 

[Sky Full]

38 minutes ago, matty007 said:

Controversial, indeed. But, most likely, the best approach. At least in my opinion.

It is always tempting to lockdown a virus, but the economic repercussions can not be overstated. Many scientists fall into the trap of believing a lockdown will suffocate the virus, and for a time, they would be correct. But in a very contagious virus-like this, the probability of a surge once things return to normal is a highly likely one. This leaves you will less people infected for a time, but then a resurgence, which can go on for years.

At the end of the day, herd immunity will be more painful for a time, but after all is said and done, it is very likely to be the fastest way back to normality.

We don't want to lose anyone, especially the elderly, but we live in a time when the moral question between economy and lives is a very difficult one. Do you lose some more lives but keep the country somewhat economically healthy? Or do you lockdown and risk years of depression. This is a major problem of living in a highly economically dependant country. Months and months of the economic downturn would be disastrous.

It's a deeply difficult moral question.

There is also the risk that the current policy will lead to hundreds of thousands out of work, with little or no means of support.  Imagine all leisure industries on their knees including pubs, restaurants, hotels, leisure centres, airlines, travel agencies, sports clubs, coach companies, bed and breakfast owners etc etc.  Then there are the suppliers - cleaners, caterers, building maintenance workers ... The list is endless and many of the people in these industries are self-employed or low income workers. 

I can see the knock-on effects from long term, repeated 'lock-downs' being more damaging in terms of lives as anything the virus can do.   It's now looking like 250,000 deaths from the virus is the upper estimate and I believe the same total will be reached in the end whatever policy is adopted.  

Maybe we should protect UK jobs and the future economy rather than try to hold back the tide of infections which are inevitable now it's in our midst.

[Evening thunder]

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Its certainly possible and probably something we will only see in the coming months as countries get through their own peaks.

From what I've read, the concept is as critical cases drop below a certain level you ease off the restrictions (open schools, etc) and then once the virus starts to get above a certain critical level you then re-impose the restrictions. So its not a constant 100% lock down for a year, but more an on and off as required and depending on how many waves we get.

Its so very far from ideal, but what other solution is there other than letting the virus go through and we get 250-500 thousand deaths.

Yes I wondered if there would be an on/off approach, or whether cases would then increase too quickly.

I guess there is no other option apart from what you say (and what the UK government appeared to be going for at first, before possibly recalculating). Probably a quicker return to normality, but via a massively overwhelmed NHS and more deaths. I wrote something like that in my post but then it seems it got lost in editing.

[Sky Full]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Even if a herd immunity policy was brought in to reduce the impact on the economy this is viewing the UK as not being impacted by what other countries do .

It treats the UK as if it’s some bubble of normality in which people carry on as if nothing’s happened .

This is fanciful . That’s even before the moral arguments , which are huge .

 

Sorry, Nick, but the flip side of your argument is that because these other countries are 'locking-down' to give themselves breathing space only a tiny proportion of their population will gain immunity.  As soon as they open their borders the virus will come back from parts of the world where it is still live and the process starts again.  Their policy will sustain the virus for months until a vaccine is available.  We wouldn't be able to open our borders to them anyway, so we are in a bubble either way, aren't we?

[Man With Beard]

Never thought I'd see the day when prisoners were set free en-mass to contain a virus. Just how bad is it in Iran? 

Coronavirus: Iran frees 85,000 prisoners to combat spread of COVID-19

NEWS.SKY.COM

---

Iran has temporarily freed about 85,000 prisoners in an effort to combat the spread of coronavirus, a judiciary spokesman in the country...

 

[matty007]

2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Never thought I'd see the day when prisoners were set free en-mass to contain a virus. Just how bad is it in Iran? 

Coronavirus: Iran frees 85,000 prisoners to combat spread of COVID-19

NEWS.SKY.COM

---

Iran has temporarily freed about 85,000 prisoners in an effort to combat the spread of coronavirus, a judiciary spokesman in the country...

 

Likely millions are infected.

The recorded cases of 14,000 are so low it's not even funny.

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, matty007 said:

Indeed, this is war. A war against a contagion that can't be seen, but will infect millions. We have to remember that Spanish Flu killed more people than WW1 did. In war, you can see your enemy. This? You can't.

Not saying for a second that this will kill like Spanish Flu, it won't. And it won't succomb many young people to cytokine storms either. But believe me, Covid 19 is this centurys version of 'Spanish Flu'.

 

Lets hope it doesn't get to Spanish Flu levels, even the most conservative estimate is 17 million, but frankly the higher estimate sounds somewhat more realistic.

It does seem likely that in terms of all time epidemics in absolute numbers (not % of death of world population, it won't be that severe on that front IMO) this will be a top 5 of all time.

I had originally said 1 million deaths worldwide, but I'm starting to suspect that maybe on the low side of what will happen given its spread quicker than I expected.

[Tom Quintavalle]

Just wanted to take this opportunity to thank matty007 for his kind words and detailed response, to my earlier Post.

My Wife Colette, set off for her early Morning shift at a local Residential Care Home, determined to "have it out" with the Manageress of the Home, regarding this issue of wearing Face Masks. I've told Colette to cite ACAS, at her. Surely, there must be some regulations out there, about this.

Piers Morgan (GMTV), is currently on his "Soap Box" about the situation in the Health Care Industry.

You often here Care Workers have "fingers pointed" at them, regarding cases of abuse against Residents, in the Media. But you rarely hear the other side of the Story. My Wife, has been kicked, punched, had her hair pulled and has had faeces, smeared on her. Obviously, I'm biased but I very much see the other side of the Story. Obviously, these Residents can't help their behaviour and are suffering from Dementia/Alzheimer's.

As I stated earlier, Colette suffers from the Autoimmune Disease Psoriasis, and therefore especially vulnerable to contracting one of the many bugs, frequently circulating the Home.

As I've stated the Salary is pitiful and the working conditions, deplorable.

IMO, they are very much treated like "cannon fodder".  

Not only are the Carers not allowed to wear Face Masks, in case they frighten the Residents, during the intense heat of the past two Summers, Residents demanded that windows be closed and Fans be turned off, because they felt cold due to draughts!!

I've visited the Home, on a moderately warm Day and sweated "buckets". I can't begin to imagine what the internal Temperature must have reached, during the last 2 Summers.

You are probably asking why does my Wife continue to Work, in the Care Industry?

Colette is very good at her job and I've seen her at the Work Face and she gets down on the same level as the elderly Relatives, and gives them, "one to one" attention.

She does love her job but certainly doesn't do it for the Money!! 

IMO, Care Home Owners such as multi million £ Companies such as BUPA and smaller Independents, should be brought to task about Salaries and working conditions, in Care Homes. It continues to be a National disgrace, how little importance this Country views, looking after our Elderly and Infirmed!! 

I'm also gutted, as Members have alluded to above. I was just about to take 25% of my Pension Pot, to take the pressure of my Wife, re. taking on extra shifts at Work. But due to the Stock Market crash, quite a bit of Money has been wiped, from my Pension Fund. 

Colette is also very worried about myself. Some Members, may have read my Posts about my own health issues. In September 2015, I suffered a Brain Haemorrhage/Stroke. Evidently, I "died" twice but a brilliant Brain Surgeon and his Staff resuscitated me, at King's College Hospital, S.E.London. They had to insert tubes into my Brain to drain away blood and fluid but in doing so, bacteria entered my Brain and I had two bouts of Meningitis. Doctors then had to swamp me with the Antibiotic, Vancomycin. I had to have so much of it, that I became resistant to it. I was then isolated, from the rest of the Hospital Ward.

Just want to put forward, what might seem to be a controversial theory, regarding the number of Cases/Deaths in Italy, of the elderly.

I'm half Italian and I'm very aware that when Italian Relatives reach old age, they are very treasured and become the figureheads of the Family, and remain in the Community.

I've seen so many cases of Relatives "shoving" their elderly Relatives, into the Care Home where my Wife works.

This then leaves them free to reap the reward of selling off their Parents/Relatives Property, which amounts to a "pretty packet", in the N.W.Kent/S.E.London Border, area. My Wife tells me that some of the Relatives of these Residents, are never "sighted" again. Now, I'm not suggesting that this happens in every case but my Wife has witnessed a lot of that sort of behaviour. 

Because elderly Italians remain in the Community, they've been more exposed to this Virus, than an elderly person under the care of a Care Home, in this Country would be. 

Stay safe and Virus free.

Regards,

Tom.  

 

Edited March 17, 2020 by TomSE12

[jonboy]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Lets hope it doesn't get to Spanish Flu levels, even the most conservative estimate is 17 million, but frankly the higher estimate sounds somewhat more realistic.

It does seem likely that in terms of all time epidemics in absolute numbers (not % of death of world population, it won't be that severe on that front IMO) this will be a top 5 of all time.

I had originally said 1 million deaths worldwide, but I'm starting to suspect that maybe on the low side of what will happen given its spread quicker than I expected.

What everyone fails to understand when talking figures and trying to compare with the like of Spanish flu is that although corona -19 maybe more infectious and spread more quickly around the world our world is  a far healthier place than 1918. Health care systems are vastly different as are poverty levels. This doesn't remotely under estimate the issues we face but lets not scare monger on figures that have little or no relevance to our society today

[Snipper]

Such a difficult thing for any government to assess at this stage what should be done by way of compensation for an Act of God. For business owners and their staff it must be an evolving nightmare.
 

Yes this a war. Anyone know if there was any compensation for those who had their property destroyed in the blitz?

[Captain Shortwave]

4 minutes ago, Snipper said:

Such a difficult thing for any government to assess at this stage what should be done by way of compensation for an Act of God. For business owners and their staff it must be an evolving nightmare.
 

Yes this a war. Anyone know if there was any compensation for those who had their property destroyed in the blitz?

I believe they were, war can be a hugely productive thing for a country’s economy. You only have to look at the billions poured into Europe from the United States alone to see that, add to that the substantial socialist policies that came in under labour. That required an incredible amount of capital for the time.

The same response cannot really happen here, but I don’t know what the economic impact of the Spanish flu, but many countries struggled for years after the First World War and boom came from advances in technology that suddenly made luxury items affordable for the working class creating a boom from a cycle of supply and demand where one fed the other.

[jonboy]

2 minutes ago, Snipper said:

Such a difficult thing for any government to assess at this stage what should be done by way of compensation for an Act of God. For business owners and their staff it must be an evolving nightmare.
 

Yes this a war. Anyone know if there was any compensation for those who had their property destroyed in the blitz?

This is getting ridiculous. This is not a war. What next trenches and machine gun posts to stop strangers entering your community?

The reason we have these restrictions is because of the effect it has on the most vulnerable.  Lets be clear if we didn't have flu vaccines we would be in this position every year. This virus has developed very quickly because we have an open world. 

Lessons have not been learnt from Sars however we are already seeing promise for a vaccine based on the Sars pathogen. We not be able to vaccinate the whole world by next year but perhaps we will be able to vaccinate the most vulnerable.

What this tells us in an open world we should not go down an isolationist route but be open and work with all to achieve common goals 

[BornFromTheVoid]

36 minutes ago, Snipper said:

As a connected aside do some essential oils kill the virus? So many claims made. Thinking of the likes of Teatree and Lavender Oil.  Absolutely no intention of rushing out and buying any.  Just interested. 

A video here by a doc that does case study videos. He did one on COVID-19 cases a few weeks back. His latest is things people have used to try kill the virus. Essential oils dealt with around 11:26.

 

[Summer Sun]

2,000 workers are currently building a temporary hospital around 60km from Moscow. It will have 500 beds 250 of them will be for severely infected patients

 

[Sky Full]

I was shocked to hear Richard Morgan on ITV Wales earlier state that under the new restrictions "...everyone showing symptoms must now isolate for 14 days...".  

That is wrong. 

Those showing symptoms are only required to isolate for 7 days, after which time they will no longer be infective.  You only need to isolate for 14 days if you have been exposed to someone else who is already infected.  

If the media can't be bothered to report the advice correctly they shouldn't report anything.

[SnowBear]

I would just like to invite everyone here to show a big appreciation to Matty, for his words and contributions here on Netweather, and for all he is doing at work along with everyone else in the NHS and emergency services at this time. 

A big Thank You. 

Stay safe Matty. 

[kold weather]

20 minutes ago, jonboy said:

What everyone fails to understand when talking figures and trying to compare with the like of Spanish flu is that although corona -19 maybe more infectious and spread more quickly around the world our world is  a far healthier place than 1918. Health care systems are vastly different as are poverty levels. This doesn't remotely under estimate the issues we face but lets not scare monger on figures that have little or no relevance to our society today

I think the fear is from many countries that for all the advances that have indeed been made, it will mean very little if our health services are overwhelmed and there is not the resources around to use and save people.

I think that probably the reason we have suddenly seen a quickening in the schedule from the government, and an acknowledgement that this is still not as much as will be needed to go

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

2,000 workers are currently building a temporary hospital around 60km from Moscow. It will have 500 beds 250 of them will be for severely infected patients

 

I bet Russia are wishing the Berlin wall had never came down now and they still had the iron curtain politics, would have been easy to control over there then, one of the more easy places to put on complete lockdown.

[Snipper]

It is worth remembering many landlords will be worrying because their income may well cease.  Contrary to what might be the first thought not all landlords are money grabbing people or companies. Several of my clients use to run a business and on their retirement they let the premises to provide a pension. Should they be compensated as well?

[Blessed Weather]

The COVID-19 topic in the Netweather Learning & Research Area continues to be updated. Here are the latest entries where you will find onward links to the respective websites:

• Q&A by The World Health Organisation (constantly updated and many topics covered)
• NHS advice about CV19
• Stay at home advice by Public Health England
• Looking after your mental health during the outbreak by The Mental Health Foundation
• CV19 and pregnancy by the Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.

 

[kold weather]

2 new deaths reported in Switzerland overnight, and 6 new deaths in South Korea, so the death rate continues to tick up there.

I hope we can get less deaths today in the UK, because the last three days have out us on pace with Spain, and even worse than Italy at the same point.

[snowdog]

16 minutes ago, jonboy said:

This is getting ridiculous. This is not a war. What next trenches and machine gun posts to stop strangers entering your community?

The reason we have these restrictions is because of the effect it has on the most vulnerable.  Lets be clear if we didn't have flu vaccines we would be in this position every year. This virus has developed very quickly because we have an open world. 

Lessons have not been learnt from Sars however we are already seeing promise for a vaccine based on the Sars pathogen. We not be able to vaccinate the whole world by next year but perhaps we will be able to vaccinate the most vulnerable.

What this tells us in an open world we should not go down an isolationist route but be open and work with all to achieve common goals 

This does not only affect the vulnerable though.It has a knock on effect to the whole society.

Even if it is only the most vulnerable that are at risk from serious complications/death from the virus they will fill up the NHS capacity, and consequently there is not enough treatment for the usual patients, so they then become at risk and cannot get treatment.What about the A &E departments that already struggle and hospitals that do not have spare beds?