COVID-19 Pandemic

[kold weather]

What the report states about schools:

Quote

We predict that school and university closure will have an impact on the epidemic, under the assumption that children do transmit as much as adults, even if they rarely experience severe disease. We find that school and university closure is a more effective strategy to support epidemic suppression than mitigation; when combined with population-wide social distancing, the effect of school closure is to further amplify the breaking of social contacts between households, and thus supress transmission.

I think its becoming highly probable the pressure to shut schools will make keeping them open untenable past this week.

I've told my parents I won't be seeing them on mothers day as my mother does have a few health issues, I'll try to video call instead.

[The PIT]

2 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

I think its cause we haven't the equipment to put in them, however may be the army has resources, will we use private hospitals, I'm sure they have equipment to. 

We probably could do it but our mentality is to have five people looking into a hole saying ermmm I don't know about that followed by another 5 different people saying the same thing a week later and then in a month something may happen. Compared to japan where they filled in a huge sink hole in a week.

[Azazel]

Can somebody please give me some hope and optimism regarding this, this evening.

Im really not doing too well.

[Astral Goat Juice]

9 minutes ago, Onding said:

I'm sure it was part of initial discussions when the early cases started to emerge. Forecasts then suggested this was not favoured due to the immense strain on our NHS. Like other nations we are trying to slow it down as best we can, flatten the curve etc. We really were might be more apt.

Eventually a vaccine will come which is where the true immunity will come from. But the herd immunity from infecting a great proportion of the UK in order to protect against future 'waves' is not happening here now. We are suppressing to ease the strain on services and the economy (we need to get the balance right here) but it'll likely lead to a second peak in winter before a vaccine is available.

Theres zero guarantee of a vaccine.

We still dont have one for the other Coronavirus SARS, and that was 2002.

[Captain Shortwave]

4 minutes ago, Astral Goat Juice said:

Theres zero guarantee of a vaccine.

We still dont have one for the other Coronavirus SARS, and that was 2002.

Personally I don’t know about how much research was poured into this because SARS was successfully contained. There could be a significant amount of research out there that could be relevant to this Coronavirus strain, which could put us well ahead of where we could have been in terms of a vaccine or at least an effective treatment. I know some articles have been posted about it on this forum for a start.

Edited March 16, 2020 by Captain Shortwave

[matty007]

1 hour ago, Bristle boy said:

Govt and their science advisers seem really adamant on the No School Closures yet. Anyone else think they have growing evidence of kids being superspreaders, even if no symptoms? So they'd rather keep them in school for 7 hours, better than at home with 'temporary' childminders like grandparents

As yet, there is no real evidence of this. Like anything, you have to weigh up whether the measure is worth it, and whether it will make a noticable change. In my opinion, school closures will have little effect. It seems to me that not only are children largely unaffected by this virus in terms of symptoms, but most, don't seem to be contracting it at all.

You really have to factor that if all these children are withdrawn from school, who will look after them? The parents? What about their jobs?

Then you have to make the hypothesis that if indeed it does turn out that they are spreaders and they are withdrawn from school, who will likely be looking after them when they have parents that HAVE to work? Probably grandparents.....yes.

I personally see very little benefit to it, and it could possibly do more harm than good.

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, Astral Goat Juice said:

Theres zero guarantee of a vaccine.

We still dont have one for the other Coronavirus SARS, and that was 2002.

I don't disagree! I hope in a year/year and a half's time we are celebrating the arrival of one but like you say it is not guaranteed. I would be reasonably confident though

Edited March 16, 2020 by Onding

[kold weather]

 

1 minute ago, matty007 said:

As yet, there is no real evidence of this. Like anything, you have to weigh up whether the measure is worth it, and whether it will make a noticable change. In my opinion, school closures will have little effect. It seems to me that not only are children largely unaffected by this virus in terms of symptoms, but most, don't seem to be contracting it at all.

You really have to factor that if all these children are withdrawn from school, who will look after them? The parents? What about their jobs?

Then you have to make the hypothesis that if indeed it does turn out that they are spreaders and they are withdrawn from school, who will likely be looking after them when they have parents that HAVE to work? Probably grandparents.....yes.

I personally see very little benefit to it, and it could possibly do more harm than good.

Interesting the report from the Imperial college seems to think it wil have an impact, though its not the highest in the list of things that would help, they do think working it on a 'trigger; system to help at the peak of any waves that comes through helps to drag the deaths down yet further. Then once the wave eases, you can take off the trigger and return back to school.

Its here and it is the *grimmest* thing I think I have ever read:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

[matty007]

5 minutes ago, Azazel said:

Can somebody please give me some hope and optimism regarding this, this evening.

Im really not doing too well.

The vast majority of us will survive this. If we have children, they will be just fine. The virus is a coronavirus that is able to be vaccinated, and if not, herd immunity will be achieved. We will return to normal some time down the road.

There you go

[matty40s]

[Snowy L]

10 minutes ago, Astral Goat Juice said:

Theres zero guarantee of a vaccine.

We still dont have one for the other Coronavirus SARS, and that was 2002.

Demand, and therefore funding, for SARS vaccines has been at near zero ever since that epidemic was contained. While nothing is guaranteed, several vaccines are due to begin human clinical trials which means they at the very least they went well in in-vitro and animal models.

Edited March 16, 2020 by Snowy L

[kold weather]

There was a conference regarding the Imperial College report, this is a quote from someone who was at the conference:

Quote

"The aim now is not to slow the rate of growth of cases, but put the epidemic in reverse. Hopefully there will be tens of thousands of deaths. Maybe just a few thousand."

Hopefully there will be 10s of thousands of deaths....I'll just let that rest there.

[Wiltshire_snow_lover]

Jesus just relised how much spending that is! 

[Astral Goat Juice]

2 minutes ago, Wiltshire_snow_lover said:

Jesus just relised how much spending that is! 

Jesus Christ! 

[Spikecollie]

8 minutes ago, Azazel said:

Can somebody please give me some hope and optimism regarding this, this evening.

Im really not doing too well.

I had a bad day yesterday but I'm much better today. I cycled to work this morning and will do the same twice tomorrow and the exercise really calmed me down. I can't run with Mylo at the moment as he has a slight injury to his left wrist so I have to improvise! I love my bike but the weather was crap this morning and the water was coming up off the front wheel into my face - but I didn't care.

I can't give you hope and optimism, no one could right now but I can give you an insight into what makes me feel good/better.

Love and good feelings...

 

[Man With Beard]

27 minutes ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

From what I read I think the "herd immunity" comment was looking ahead longer-term, especially as the government's health adviser also talked about requiring a seasonal vaccine.  It's a sound strategy if we're looking upwards of a few years ahead, aiming for the more vulnerable to be vaccinated and the less vulnerable to pass it around more freely as per seasonal flu.  But of course it wouldn't work if applied to the next few months as there is no vaccine on the near horizon and therefore lots of vulnerable people would die, partly from complications and partly due to strain on the NHS.  The government's short-term strategy was probably purely flattening of the peak rather than aiming for quick "herd immunity".

I'm confused though - if herd immunity wasn't the goal, why not take more drastic action sooner? The two arguments I heard against lock downs were either doubts if it could hold (a fair point), or the fact that the virus would simply return without herd immunity? 

Having a lockdown later on surely will achieve neither eradication nor herd immunity, meaning we lose twice. 

If the argument is have a lockdown to save NHS capacity, this would indicate a policy dictated by allowing the maximum amount of strain on the NHS. That does not address the wider problem in any way, and begs the question of why not, then, just do the absolute maximum right now to minimize the impact on the NHS, if that indeed is the main guiding principle right now? 

The only explanation for why the government is not going gung-ho, to me, remains a target of herd immunity. Otherwise, why not do more? 

Edited March 16, 2020 by Man With Beard

[Astral Goat Juice]

Is there is any good news, then if you are for and healthy it's likely you wont be bad at all.

The reports regarding the footballers who caught it is extremely positive. 

When it's all over, it may end up giving sedentary people a kick up the butt to get fit.

[alexisj9]

6 minutes ago, kold weather said:

There was a conference regarding the Imperial College report, this is a quote from someone who was at the conference:

Hopefully there will be 10s of thousands of deaths....I'll just let that rest there.

That just nasty. 

[DAVID SNOW]

I would think unlimited money and expertise is being used globally to create a vaccine.

My opinion FWIW, is that a vaccine is not months away(12 to 18) but much closer.

[ManiaMuse]

2 minutes ago, Spikecollie said:

I had a bad day yesterday but I'm much better today. I cycled to work this morning and will do the same twice tomorrow and the exercise really calmed me down. I can't run with Mylo at the moment as he has a slight injury to his left wrist so I have to improvise! I love my bike but the weather was crap this morning and the water was coming up off the front wheel into my face - but I didn't care.

I can't give you hope and optimism, no one could right now but I can give you an insight into what makes me feel good/better.

Love and good feelings...

 

This is the point where you learn that mudguards are your best friend if you want to cycle commute regularly in the UK's awful weather...

[Mark_p]

13 minutes ago, Azazel said:

Can somebody please give me some hope and optimism regarding this, this evening.

Im really not doing too well.

Mate I've seen and heard a lot of worry about this disease and it isn't unwarrented. Remember that - for some reason- it always seems that the worst of us: panic buying, selfishness and  bog roll - gate always gets splashed on the media BUT (no puns intended there) situations like this bring out the quiet best of us. All over the world communities are rallying to help each other via social media and traditional contact methods - no it won't make top of the tabloid rags very often but there's always that human spirit you can count on. We have our own little community here in a way - usually moaning about lack of snow or thunder - how this crisis is putting that into perspective but if anyone wants a chat I'm only a message away as I'm sure many others are here. As said earlier in the thread we need to look after our mental health during this time too.

[Summer Sun]

The first coronavirus vaccine trial in a human has taken place in the USA.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/coronavirus-vaccine-test-opens-1st-doses-n1160836

UK trials will hopefully start by April if the last stage of animal testing passes.

[Snowyowl9]

Can I put a subliminal message up.

 

Edited March 16, 2020 by Snowyowl9

[pip22]

I think it is only a matter of time before our govt decides to lockdown our country now.

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The first coronavirus vaccine trial in a human has taken place in the USA.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/coronavirus-vaccine-test-opens-1st-doses-n1160836

UK trials will hopefully start by April if the last stage of animal testing passes.

I actually think a vaccine will be developed a lot quicker than currently projected when i keep hearing these things.