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COVID-19 Pandemic


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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
13 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

It has come from the Imperial College report, they are advising the govt. Worst case scenario is 250,000 deaths. If this report is not all over the papers tom, and news this eve, then i'll be very surprised. Grim indeed.

Just read it, assuming a Ro of 2.2 (which seems to be generally agreed upon) even in the best case scenario with all the social distancing and actions triggered we still get 31,000 deaths!

It also makes it very clear that the government has to go down the Europe route now. the suppression route and accept that it will peak several times and obviously ease and tighten the lockdown as required. We have probably made the first peak worse by doing what we have done. 

That is one of the grimmest things I've ever read, and I've seen some awful documents in my time (from history!)

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
11 minutes ago, Jhonny147 said:

I'm feeling like I've turned a corner with this flu or whatever this virus is. Yesterday was my worse day and my chest hurt when I breathed. I had a cough... Today chest is better and so is the cough. I'm feeling better than I have these last four/five days thank god. I will never know if this was coronavirus or not 

You will if they supply this new test kit that  there making.

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4 minutes ago, Astral Goat Juice said:

Apparently the french maybe about to favour a herd immunity approach like the UK.

We are not following a herd immunity approach.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
1 minute ago, matty007 said:

Do you want the truth? There are no 'experts' relating to this disease because it's totally novel. People with degrees in medicine, like myself, will be able to give people better advice on the general behavior of viruses, general health matters, and possible complications, and we will also be able to inform people of how the virus is progressing within the health service. But at the end of the day, nobody is an 'expert' on this virus. We need a lot more data and a lot more experience of it. We can observe the virus as we encounter it, but in terms of knowledge of the virus, most of it comes from reports from China, which has a much larger sample size of patients. These reports are open to anyone to view.

However that brings the question as to how open are the Chinese?

We need to gather our own data which means test watch and evaluate.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Just watching Boris's speech. 

Thinking - if he'd shut the country's borders and imposed a lock down 2 weeks ago, he would have been a villain for about a month. 

But then, when we started reporting just 1 death a day in contrast to Europe's hundreds or thousands, he would have been called the greatest PM of all time. 

Then we could have gone back to normal within 2 months, apart from keeping our borders shut. Though a big inconvenience, nothing would have been lost in reality, because I think country borders are going to become shut for a long time anyway. The UK, no longer having to fight the virus, would have started accelerating financially while other countries remained subdued. 

I think some on here could see this coming. Oh, if only. Now it's too late. 

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
1 minute ago, Onding said:

We are not following a herd immunity approach.

I thought we were following the which way the wind blows and wing it while we can.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
6 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

It's actually quite shocking with the actions today now I'm NOT a political person at all but the matter of the fact is if the government keeps this mindset a LOT of people are going to die 

What I'm saying is if there was stronger measures like banning flights etc even a lockdown of sorts look at South Korea and Singapore for example

This is starting to get scary now and not to mention it's a matter of time 

There will have to be a lockdown, based on what I've just read in that Imperial College reports there is no way we cannot do that. The idea will be to lockdown for a 1-2 month period, then relax the measures and then tighten up again...which is what I've been saying makes the most logical sense.

The key thing is though is when to put in these measures. The report assumes they do it within the next 7-10 days, including the closure of schools and unis.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Tentative signs that the Lombardy region may be starting to see a slowdown following the lockdown last week they need to wait another 3 or 4 days to be sure

Quote

 

Coronavirus, Fontana: "There is no more exponential progression"

 

According to the Lombard governor "it will be necessary to wait another 3-4 days to understand if the numbers can begin to prove us right. The only way to arrive at the solution is to prevent the virus from continuing to circulate" "We can begin to say that perhaps there is no longer that violent progression that was in recent days - explained the governor -, it is still progressing but no longer exponentially which we are moderately pleased with". 

In the late afternoon, Fontana went to the pavilions of the Fiera di Milano where he plans to open a hospital with 500 intensive care units for Coronavirus patients. "I had a meeting with Dr. Bertolaso and his technicians, there is the maximum availability to build this structure, on the horizon there are the conditions to arrive at a positive solution and a quick solution".

"In 3-4 days we will understand if the numbers prove us right"

According to Fontana, "it will be necessary to wait another 3-4 days to understand if the numbers can begin to prove us right. The only way to arrive at the solution is to prevent the virus from continuing to circulate". For the Lombard governor, "it is clear that the more restrictive measures there are, the sooner we reach the conclusion" and "if it closes with even greater vigor, there are more possibilities that the times of circulation of the virus will slow down. 

 

https://tg24.sky.it/milano/2020/03/16/coronavirus-fontana.html?social=twitter_skytg24_link_null

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Just now, The PIT said:

I thought we were following the which way the wind blows and wing it while we can.

I think the last few days there have been reports which shows to the government that it will lead yo such a huge surge in critical care cases that its going to basically destroy the health service. Instead it needs probably a full blown lockdown to keep it within a range that makes it still manageable.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Just watching Boris's speech. 

Thinking - if he'd shut the country's borders and imposed a lock down 2 weeks ago, he would have been a villain for about a month. 

But then, when we started reporting just 1 death a day in contrast to Europe's hundreds or thousands, he would have been called the greatest PM of all time. 

Then we could have gone back to normal within 2 months, apart from keeping our borders shut. Though a big inconvenience, nothing would have been lost in reality, because I think country borders are going to become shut for a long time anyway. The UK, no longer having to fight the virus, would have started accelerating financially while other countries remained subdued. 

I think some on here could see this coming. Oh, if only. Now it's too late. 

I think he's showing the poor leader qualities that some us knew he would be.

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke-on-Trent, Norton. 549ft (167m) ASL
  • Location: Stoke-on-Trent, Norton. 549ft (167m) ASL

So just checked my e-mail and had a mail from ASDA

Quote

Message from Asda’s CEO Roger Burnley

Dear Customer,

I know these are worrying times and that you’re probably trying to ‘carry on as normal’ whilst doing your best to look after friends and family. I’m massively aware that Asda – and all the supermarkets – have such an important role to play in making sure you and your community have the essentials you all need and I wanted to personally reassure you that we are working really hard to keep our shelves stocked and to serve your community.

We’re taking our responsibilities to respond to Coronavirus – Covid 19 really seriously. First and foremost, let me promise you that looking after you and colleagues is our number one priority, which is why we’re staying close to the advice from Government to make sure we’re doing the right things.

In our shops

Just as you are at home, we’re making every effort to try and help limit the spread of bacteria and viruses and have put additional cleaning materials in our stores. We’ve also asked our cleaners to focus on cleaning more frequently in the ‘high traffic’ areas. To make it easier for you to clean trollies and baskets before you use them, we’re topping up the cleaning stations in our foyers even more regularly.

Online

Demand for online shopping has increased and we’re delivering as many orders as we possibly can. If you can be flexible in your delivery or collection time, that would be fantastic and we’ve made sure our drivers all have sanitizer spray so they can continually ensure they’re able to keep your shopping and the totes clean and hygienic.

If you do need to self-isolate for any reason, I’d just ask that you let us know of your situation in the ‘Other Information’ section when placing your order. Let us know where you’d like your order to be left – be that your doorstep or communal entrance and our drivers will bring it there for you. They’ll use bags rather than our usual totes and let you know they’ve arrived. If you’re unable to collect your order quickly then drivers will give you a call, but because they have so many deliveries to make at the moment, if they can’t get hold of you after a few minutes, then the order will be returned to the store and the order cancelled and refunded. For your reassurance and theirs our drivers will wear gloves when they’re delivering to anyone who is self-isolating.

On our shelves

We’re working around the clock to make sure we’re doing everything we can to keep products available - and in some cases, such as with hand sanitizer, cleaning products and baby formula – we have implemented a limit on the number of items that can be purchased to make sure everyone can get what they need. I’d also ask that you try to shop responsibly and not buy more than you need so that everyone, including the vulnerable, have access to the essentials.

Finally, I want to take a moment to thank our colleagues for their incredible efforts during these unprecedented times. I apologise if shopping with us at the moment is not a perfect experience, but I would ask that you be patient with my colleagues as they try to do their very best during these unprecedented times.

I know that this is a worrying situation and I can promise you that everyone at Asda is focussed on providing a safe shopping experience for you all. If you have any concerns or questions then please do contact our customer service team on 0800 952 0101 and they’ll do their very best to help.
 

Take care,

Roger

 

TLDR: If you order online and are self isolating you can state that you are doing so in the 'other' delivery instructions, and they will bag your shopping, and the drivers will leave it on your doorstep for you (or where ever you want it dropping off) so you can go out to get it once they've moved away.

Also they are limiting purchase amounts on some product i.e. hand sanitizer, cleaning products and baby formula.

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Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and hot.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
1 minute ago, The PIT said:

However that brings the question as to how open are the Chinese?

We need to gather our own data which means test watch and evaluate.

 

Very open, and transparent. I will be the first to admit that their handling of this virus at the beginning, was quite abysmal. In fact, it possibly turned something that maybe could have been contained, into a pandemic.

However, I will never fault the Chinese for their studies and medical expertise. They have been incredibly competent at testing for this and observing different treatments and outcomes. The Chinese maybe a little 'shy' with the disclosure of cases at times, but nobody can fault them for their medical practices.

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Posted
  • Location: Carisbrooke, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Snow... Summer storms. Anything a bit dangerous.
  • Location: Carisbrooke, Isle of Wight
1500.jpg?width=1200&height=630&quality=8
WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

Information blackout only lifted in certain events like family illness, say producers

This is just weird. Are they lucky or not? I can't decide.

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Just now, Astral Goat Juice said:

We really are.

coronavirus-longon130320.jpg
WWW.STANDARD.CO.UK

The World Health Organisation has cast doubt on the UK’s approach to developing "herd immunity" against Covid-19, saying the current...

 

 

I'm sure it was part of initial discussions when the early cases started to emerge. Forecasts then suggested this was not favoured due to the immense strain on our NHS. Like other nations we are trying to slow it down as best we can, flatten the curve etc. We really were might be more apt.

Eventually a vaccine will come which is where the true immunity will come from. But the herd immunity from infecting a great proportion of the UK in order to protect against future 'waves' is not happening here now. We are suppressing to ease the strain on services and the economy (we need to get the balance right here) but it'll likely lead to a second peak in winter before a vaccine is available.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

From what I read I think the "herd immunity" comment was looking ahead longer-term, especially as the government's health adviser also talked about requiring a seasonal vaccine.  It's a sound strategy if we're looking upwards of a few years ahead, aiming for the more vulnerable to be vaccinated and the less vulnerable to pass it around more freely as per seasonal flu.  But of course it wouldn't work if applied to the next few months as there is no vaccine on the near horizon and therefore lots of vulnerable people would die, partly from complications and partly due to strain on the NHS.  The government's short-term strategy was probably purely flattening of the peak rather than aiming for quick "herd immunity", but there was a genuine fear that too much containment too soon could exacerbate a spike in cases once the measures are relaxed or lifted.

Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
1 minute ago, kold weather said:

I think the last few days there have been reports which shows to the government that it will lead yo such a huge surge in critical care cases that its going to basically destroy the health service. Instead it needs probably a full blown lockdown to keep it within a range that makes it still manageable.

And all the evidence and advice from regions heavily affected told us we where taking the wrong course.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Tentative signs that the Lombardy region may be starting to see a slowdown following the lockdown last week they need to wait another 3 or 4 days to be sure

https://tg24.sky.it/milano/2020/03/16/coronavirus-fontana.html?social=twitter_skytg24_link_null

More proof that extreme tactics work, there has indeed been a drift to the right with regards to cases against the logarithmic scales, though obviously 3500 cases a day is still fairly high, and the deaths are going to be increasing in a big way for while yet.

Sadly, looking increasingly likely that that week of not doing action last week may well cost us a fair few lives.

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Posted
  • Location: Herts
  • Location: Herts
4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

There will have to be a lockdown, based on what I've just read in that Imperial College reports there is no way we cannot do that. The idea will be to lockdown for a 1-2 month period, then relax the measures and then tighten up again...which is what I've been saying makes the most logical sense.

The key thing is though is when to put in these measures. The report assumes they do it within the next 7-10 days, including the closure of schools and unis.

Worth noting that while Uni's are not yet officially closed, a number have suspended face to face teaching and have already extended their Easter breaks. Some are operating on very much skeleton staff already. 

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
29 minutes ago, Astral Goat Juice said:

Dont know why we dont just do a China and Russia and build more hospitals for Covid.

I think its cause we haven't the equipment to put in them, however may be the army has resources, will we use private hospitals, I'm sure they have equipment to. 

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
8 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

 

Then we could have gone back to normal within 2 months, apart from keeping our borders shut. Though a big inconvenience, nothing would have been lost in reality, because I think country borders are going to become shut for a long time anyway. The UK, no longer having to fight the virus, would have started accelerating financially while other countries remained subdued. 

 

Sadly the report from Imperial college seems to think that the moment you relax the restrictions you will see a quick rise again in cases, and eventually you need to put in a lockdown, and even then, the report suggests some element of social distancing will be needed for something like 18 months until a vaccine has enough stock to make herd immunity through that.

So its not going to be a one and done job based on that strategy, we almost certainly will have waves of this.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Just now, saint said:

Worth noting that while Uni's are not yet officially closed, a number have suspended face to face teaching and have already extended their Easter breaks. Some are operating on very much skeleton staff already. 

Ours is bumbling along and making a complete hash of things. One thing though if I've been infected with it I've been across to the VCs office today and if I pass it on it's there fault.

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Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and hot.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
1 hour ago, alexisj9 said:

Yes I think they started with that headache I had last week, thought it was cause I stopped using the codiene after my op, after a few days, still had the headache but with a runny nose, so I thought it's a cold, started a dry cough a few days ago, do have a fever, had the runs this morning, but I'm not out of breath, have been ill for longer than seven days though altogether, and the cough is getting worse and also not so dry anymore. 

Dirreah, or the runs, is present in about 4% of cases. So while it is possible you have Covid, it is rather unlikely. Also, from most people I have observed, a runny nose is actually quite a rare presenatation. In my expereince, the cough also remains dry throughout.

 

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