COVID-19 Pandemic

[Bristawl Si]

4 minutes ago, Zak M said:

 

Who is he?

[Dami]

Had to happen sooner or later.

Coronavirus update - Bedford Hospital

MAYORDAVE.ORG.UK

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Director of Public Health at Bedford Borough Council, Muriel Scott, said "Bedford Hospital is currently treating an individual who tested positive for Coronavirus. We wish them all the best...

Bedford's first known case. 

 

Edited March 16, 2020 by Dami

[summer blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Zak M said:

 

Remember to look in percentage terms. That 15 to 100 was a ~650% increase in a month, that 100 to 1000 in 8 days was a 1000% increase (a bad sign) however that 1000 to 2000 is a 100% increase in 3 days which may indicate something like a ~350% increase in the 8 day period (a better sign). 

The same early signs are present in Italy despite the high numbers. Between the 1st and 5th of March cases increased about 100% followed by about 175% between the 5th and 10th however between the 10th and 15th the active case rate increased by about 150% which may be an early sign of their quarantine working despite the scary 3000 new case increases.

Looking at our own numbers they are bad but not not as scary as selective periods of different lengths shown from the tweet. Between the 1st and 5th our cases rose about 240%, between the 5th and 10th there are ~250 new cases but the rate of increase is actually about the same 270% and between the 10th and 15th is again about the same 270% even though a jump from 359 to 1336 looks scary.

As ever (i have to give the same lessons to people dealing with polling in political circles sadly) it is important to have a proper statistical understanding when looking at what can appear to be scary figures.  

[kold weather]

Just now, summer blizzard said:

Remember to look in percentage terms. That 15 to 100 was a ~650% increase in a month, that 100 to 1000 in 8 days was a 1000% increase (a bad sign) however that 1000 to 2000 is a 100% increase in 3 days which may indicate something like a ~350% increase in the 8 day period (a better sign). 

The same early signs are present in Italy despite the high numbers. Between the 1st and 5th of March cases increased about 100% followed by about 175% between the 5th and 10th however between the 10th and 15th the active case rate increased by about 150% which may be an early sign of their quarantine working despite the scary 3000 new case increases.

Looking at our own numbers they are bad but not not as scary as selective periods of different lengths shown from the tweet. Between the 1st and 5th our cases rose about 240%, between the 5th and 10th there are ~250 new cases but the rate of increase is actually about the same 270% and between the 10th and 15th is again about the same 270% even though a jump from 359 to 1336 looks scary.

As ever (i have to give the same lessons to people dealing with polling in political circles sadly) it is important to have a proper statistical understanding when looking at what can appear to be scary figures.  

To be fair SB you cannot compare them at all from now on because they are showing two completely different things.

Upto last Thursday they were shown people who were tested to hit a specific range of symptoms or who had been a certain place. Its now totally changed and is for everyone displaying the symptoms who has been hospitalised regardless of from where.

Its like comparing apples to oranges.

Far better to keep a closer eye on the death totals from now on, they will give you a better long term grip, especially as sadly they start to escalate upwards.

Still waiting for death report today, we know of at least 2 more.

[Emz by the Thames]

I'm now starting to wonder if in some people this is incredibly mild. About 10 days ago, I fell asleep in the afternoon, twice. I only ever do this when my body is fighting something. I also felt a bit breathless. Both my partner and I starting having night sweats. Can't comment on a cough because I've still got a post-cold cough from a cold virus I had in late January. Makes you think, doesn't it?

Edited March 16, 2020 by Team Squirrel

[booferking]

3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

To be fair SB you cannot compare them at all from now on because they are showing two completely different things.

Upto last Thursday they were shown people who were tested to hit a specific range of symptoms or who had been a certain place. Its now totally changed and is for everyone displaying the symptoms who has been hospitalised regardless of from where.

Its like comparing apples to oranges.

Far better to keep a closer eye on the death totals from now on, they will give you a better long term grip, especially as sadly they start to escalate upwards.

Still waiting for death report today, we know of at least 2 more.

So are they sticking with 171 cases today?

[Bristawl Si]

Head of WHO live conference now, i'm watching on Sky News. Guidance - Anyone self-isolating at home and with someone else caring at home, - even if symptoms go and you feel better, you should add on another 2 weeks of isolation, no visitors or other family/friends in same house.

[swebby]

This on the bbc.

Iceland stores introduce elderly shopping hour

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

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The move comes as supermarkets continue to limit the sales of certain products to avoid them selling out.

That seems a really good idea (providing the store is cleaned etc before opening).  Will reassure vulnerable groups that are anxious about mixing with people and do not have access to online shopping.

[Snowy L]

4 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Head of WHO live conference now, i'm watching on Sky News. Guidance - Anyone self-isolating at home and with someone else caring at home, - even if symptoms go and you feel better, you should add on another 2 weeks of isolation, no visitors or other family/friends in same house.

So if symptoms last 2 weeks you should isolate for a month since onset of symptoms? Seems a bit extreme.

Edited March 16, 2020 by Snowy L

[Yarmy]

2 minutes ago, swebby said:

This on the bbc.

Iceland stores introduce elderly shopping hour

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

The move comes as supermarkets continue to limit the sales of certain products to avoid them selling out.

That seems a really good idea (providing the store is cleaned etc before opening).  Will reassure vulnerable groups that are anxious about mixing with people and do not have access to online shopping.

What an excellent idea. The other stores should follow suit.

[Zak M]

Montenegro is the only European country without a confirmed coronavirus case. However, Montenegro has placed a ban on public gatherings, closed schools, ports and some other border crossings for at least 14 days as a preemptive measure.

Now that's impressive. I would like to see their results and how they get on from 2 weeks time. If they don't get any confirmed coronavirus cases during the two weeks, then other countries without a coronavirus case should put those actions into place to prevent the virus.

Well played, Milo Đukanović!

Edited March 16, 2020 by Zak M

[Bristawl Si]

5 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

So if symptoms last 2 weeks you should isolate for a month since onset of symptoms? Seems a bit extreme.

Dont shoot the messenger. I presume he was talking about people who've been tested positive, but then told to self isolate.

[seabreeze86]

Has anyone got a link to the new WHO guidelines I am must interested about the new advice about pregnancy as my wife is 5 months pregnant. Thanks if anyone can help

[Snipper]

Deleted
 

Edit because posting appears twice for some reason.  Hung when trying to save 

Edited March 16, 2020 by Snipper

[matt111]

4 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:

Has anyone got a link to the new WHO guidelines I am must interested about the new advice about pregnancy as my wife is 5 months pregnant. Thanks if anyone can help

There’s a long thread on Twitter 

 

Edited March 16, 2020 by matt111

[alexisj9]

12 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Head of WHO live conference now, i'm watching on Sky News. Guidance - Anyone self-isolating at home and with someone else caring at home, - even if symptoms go and you feel better, you should add on another 2 weeks of isolation, no visitors or other family/friends in same house.

Have they said why, is it recatchable or something? 

[BarnetBlizzard]

Just now, alexisj9 said:

Have they said why, is it recatchable or something? 

No, you can still pass it on even after symptoms have passed. 

[daz_4]

Just now, BarnetBlizzard said:

No, you can still pass it on even after symptoms have passed. 

Yep, we have same cases here still testing positive after more than two weeks with no symptoms at all.

[Summer Sun]

BoJo presser at 16:45 from Downing Street

[Snipper]

56 minutes ago, MAF said:

Can I stress this point again. Recommending any form of medication is probably not right without professional advice. Every single person will be different and even taking the recommended dose of a medicine could be bad for some without checking with their GP. I think it's playing with fire to suggest medicine on a forum. Just my opinion.  

Whole heartedly agree most unwise.  By inference suggesting others do the same. Not much difference to consulting the local witch  doctor.  I really feel there are far too many postings on here about drugs by people who are not qualified to make a comment. 

[Blessed Weather]

8 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:

Has anyone got a link to the new WHO guidelines I am must interested about the new advice about pregnancy as my wife is 5 months pregnant. Thanks if anyone can help

I have started a new topic in the Netweather Learning Area and have added a link to the 2020 publication by the Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists. This contains information for pregnant women and their families.

 

[Zak M]

Prime Minister Boris Johnson is chairing an emergency meeting of COBRA before holding the first of what will be daily TV news conferences to update the public on COVID-19 - the prevalent strain of coronavirus.

The UK is thought to be moving towards the banning of mass gatherings and asking the elderly to self-isolate.

European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen has proposed a 30-day ban on non-essential foreign travel to the EU. The proposal will be discussed with member states tomorrow.

An official earlier said: "Ireland and Britain are encouraged to align."

Source: Sky News

[nick sussex]

If Wales with its population size had 30 new cases then it seems strange that the whole UK combined saw a rise of 171.

I know there’s some confusion with the update but the gov site has updated. So has there been some major mess up.

 

[swebby]

14 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Have they said why, is it recatchable or something? 

I think WHO are still working on the basis of containment and eradication as a possibility.  The UK's unilateral approach is a bit of a fly in the ointment on that front.

[BornFromTheVoid]