COVID-19 Pandemic

[nick sussex]

First sign here of a bit of panic buying .

Looks like the French and Brits are quite similar in their panic buying habits !

Toilet rolls,pasta, rice almost all gone . Frozen food almost all gone .

Pharmacy was strangely quiet . One change though all staff had masks , in the supermarket I also saw a few masks and people wearing plastic disposable gloves .

I suppose the concern is there will be disruptions to supply , as more people get infected that’s likely to hit those who work producing the food and also truck drivers .

 

Edited March 16, 2020 by nick sussex

[kold weather]

Somewhat concerning graph here:

We are on the same trajectory at this early stage as Spain...hopefully that bends away, but given how little we've done thus far, I see no reason why that won't continue.

[Snipper]

9 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Never noticed that David, I was to busy looking at that bloke in the background laughing. I noticed quite some time back that places selling the dust suites had sold out... Army and navy stores are gonna be having a surge now. 

Looks all set up to me.

[Snipper]

3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Somewhat concerning graph here:

We are on the same trajectory at this early stage as Spain...hopefully that bends away, but given how little we've done thus far, I see no reason why that won't continue.

Yet another graph.  Great

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, Snipper said:

Yet another graph.  Great

Well it does show something that needs to be looked at Snipper. Hopefully thats just an early surge and it levels out, because that looks remarkably similar to Spain which has blown up severely last week. Still need a few more points of data IMO to make any sort of conclusion, but that has to be a worry that we are at the moment doing worse than Italy was at the same point, and we've done next to nothing to actually prevent that from increasing. Measures will come this week, but by that point we will be where Spain is now.

Edited March 16, 2020 by kold weather

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Not being funny but when I look at the front page of this website where the forum summary is I keep wondering whether they should change the name to NetFever

[nick sussex]

Macron to give a televised address tonight at 8 PM French time .

Looks like I did the right thing stocking up today ! 

He wouldn’t be doing that unless more restrictions are coming in . The only country now in Europe which resembles any sort of  normality in terms of daily life is the UK. 

 

Edited March 16, 2020 by nick sussex

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Macron to give a televised address tonight at 8 PM French time .

Looks like I did the right thing stocking up today ! 

He wouldn’t be doing that unless more restrictions are coming in . The only country now in Europe which resembles any sort of  normality in terms of daily life is the UK. 

 

Drove into London today and currently walking across Berkeley Square and it’s definitely a lot quieter, although people are about and a lot of them don’t seem to be understanding personal space yet

[swebby]

25 minutes ago, The Weather Watcher said:

I also had something just a couple weeks ago, very dry, hot throat and coughing, headache and a couple nights of fever and sweating, the one that kinda makes you jolt up before you are just about to doze off. I still have remnants of the dry-ish throat but its nothing like it was. I doubt severely that this was the virus, but with the whole mix of severity in symptoms and the lack of a quick test, I'll never know until I catch the real thing (assuming this wasn't it).

I don't think I was in contact with anyone who may have had it, but I developed these symptoms after a friend in work was coughing and spluttering without covering mouth for a few days, he had the dry cough and throat, and he had been sick for couple weeks.

Symptoms sound about right and recent enough if it is in the past two weeks?

The governments assumption is +90% of cases will be going unrecorded.  As you say, without being tested at the time you were ill, you will never really know.  Have discussed with the likes of @azazel about the various bugs that were doing the rounds over winter and the possibility of having already had it.  I had something exactly like you describe, but as mine was around the start of Feb, i assume it was a standard mystery winter lurgy.

[MAF]

1 minute ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Drove into London today and currently walking across Berkeley Square and it’s definitely a lot quieter, although people are about and a lot of them don’t seem to be understanding personal space yet

pretty sure a lot of people have never understood "personal space" in London. Especially on public transport

[MAF]

and heres a thought; will us hay fever sufferers be labelled covid-19 spreaders every time we sneeze?

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, swebby said:

Symptoms sound about right and recent enough if it is in the past two weeks?

The governments assumption is +90% of cases will be going unrecorded.  As you say, without being tested at the time you were ill, you will never really know.  Have discussed with the likes of @azazel about the various bugs that were doing the rounds over winter and the possibility of having already had it.  I had something exactly like you describe, but as mine was around the start of Feb, i assume it was a standard mystery winter lurgy.

Which sounds eerily reminiscent of what Net-Weather's own 'experts' were saying, several weeks' back? Kinda makes the current obsession with lock-downs seem a little odd?

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, MAF said:

pretty sure a lot of people have never understood "personal space" in London. Especially on public transport

Hardly seems possible, when you're squashed 10 people per cubic metre?

[kold weather]

13 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Macron to give a televised address tonight at 8 PM French time .

Looks like I did the right thing stocking up today ! 

He wouldn’t be doing that unless more restrictions are coming in . The only country now in Europe which resembles any sort of  normality in terms of daily life is the UK. 

 

I don't think we look like normal for too much longer, I expect actually that they will announce the first major restrictions today and implement on Thursday/Friday once the commons have passed them into law.

However we are clearly quite some way behind the curve of the other countries. We will see eventually whether that is for the best or not.

[The Weather Watcher]

3 minutes ago, swebby said:

Symptoms sound about right and recent enough if it is in the past two weeks?

The governments assumption is +90% of cases will be going unrecorded.  As you say, without being tested at the time you were ill, you will never really know.  Have discussed with the likes of @azazel about the various bugs that were doing the rounds over winter and the possibility of having already had it.  I had something exactly like you describe, but as mine was around the start of Feb, i assume it was a standard mystery winter lurgy.

I have precise dates because I messaged someone at the time saying about it, March 1st, 2nd and 3rd. The problem is, because I do get anxiety, it is deciphering whether or not the fever was anxiety induced. I am assuming not because my body wouldn't let me sleep even when I went to doze off, it kinda jolted me awake, like a big bump from the chest. I've never had heart problems so ruled that out. During the day these fever symptoms resided and I was working, but at night the fever came back again, most prevalent around 12-3am. The throat was dry and hot all day with a feeling almost of post-nasal drip like a waterfall...but there was none. I also had slight weeziness from deep breathes, but nothing major to hinder breathing. The cough was mainly from the feeling that my throat was clogged (but it wasn't) so nothing was being coughed up, and I also coughed when I felt a weeze from my chest.

It is very difficult to say what it was, I rarely get sick at all, this whole winter I have had a common cold that lasted less than 48 hours and that is all. My housemate had also the same thing with the night fever and dry throat. Although we are both much better. Only a slightly dry throat with no cough etc. Probably just inflammed a little still.

[alexisj9]

10 minutes ago, MAF said:

and heres a thought; will us hay fever sufferers be labelled covid-19 spreaders every time we sneeze?

I feel self conscious every time I sneeze now. 

[kold weather]

13 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Which sounds eerily reminiscent of what Net-Weather's own 'experts' were saying, several weeks' back? Kinda makes the current obsession with lock-downs seem a little odd?

It has been interesting in the last month or so, I think most on here knew there was going to be trouble when Italy blew up, because despite a demographic difference, we aren't that dissimilar in the fundamentals of our society that a similar thing could happen in any number of European countries. Sure enough, 11 European countries now have reported more than 1,000 cases, and obviously that is too low now we have full blown community transmission throughout many countries.

Edited March 16, 2020 by kold weather

[Puddy Galore]

Just a question for those who understand these issues far more than I.  Why are they not suspending stock market trading with the tanking of markets around the world?  Can I rest assured once this virus nightmare is over, when ever that is, the markets will recover?

[Sky Full]

For anyone who is still wondering what we are dealing with here is a little run-down of the virus provided to me by someone who is properly qualified.....

­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­_______________________________________________________________________________________________

A PRIMER ON CORONAVIRUS  COVID-19.

Coronaviruses are enveloped RNA viruses, this means they can survive and remain infective on surfaces for some time.- some scientists say for up to three days.

The envelope is made of a lipid (fatty) bilayer which can be disrupted by soap causing the virus to literally fall apart. This is why hand washing, surface washing etc is best done with soap.

So what happens if you touch a contaminated surface and don't wash your hands? Infective virus particles are transferred to your fingers and if you touch your mouth, nose or eyes the virus will be transferred to the mucous membranes so don't touch your face.

The virus has some protein receptors sticking out of its surface (under electron microscopy this makes the virus look like a crown, corona = crown).

These receptors attach the virus to your cell.  It then injects its RNA into your cell.

1)      You are now infected but not infectious or symptomatic.

The virus RNA hijacks your DNA and causes it to start making copies of itself, at the end of approx 3 days all these new copies are released to infect new cells and to be released into the environment.

2)     You are now infected and infectious but not symptomatic.

During this phase which may last 2-4 days you are at your most infectious. You are a super shedder leaving active virus everywhere. 

When you are shedding you can disperse viruses on your breath for approx 1 meter which is why the recommended distance you should keep from other people is 2 meters.

Your body's immune system now mounts a response, trying to clear the virus from your system. This is when you get symptoms such as cough, fever, headache, difficulty breathing etc.  

These are due to your immune response not the virus. For most people these symptoms are fairly mild.

3)     You are now infected, infectious and symptomatic.

The consensus is that this phase lasts 7 days and you will continue to test positive as you are still infected.  Once through this phase….

4)     You remain infected but no longer infectious or symptomatic.

Why so many deaths then? In some people the immune system over-reacts causing a cytokine cascade and you develop bilateral, interstitial pneumonia.

Bottom line - your lungs fill up with fluid and you drown. This is why there is panic about insufficient ICU beds and ventilators.

To explain the quarantine/self-isolation periods:

If you have possibly been exposed but are showing no symptoms then 14 days will allow the virus to run through its course and at the end of 14 days you will no longer be infectious.

If you are showing symptoms or you test positive then 7 days will take you to the end of the infective period.

The purpose of quarantine (self-isolation) is to protect other people from you not vice versa. If it turns out you don't have the virus then you've just had to spend some boring time at home.

So:

• Wash your hands with soap and water
• Don't touch your face
• Stay 2 meters away from other people
• Don't shake hands, and most definitely don't do French style greeting kisses. Namaste is becoming popular.
• Follow the government advice on self-isolating.

­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­_________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

This is only intended to shine further light on this menace and no responsibility or liability is accepted for any omissions or inaccuracies!! 

Edited March 16, 2020 by Sky Full

[The Weather Watcher]

11 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Which sounds eerily reminiscent of what Net-Weather's own 'experts' were saying, several weeks' back? Kinda makes the current obsession with lock-downs seem a little odd?

Yes, I don't get how banding about figures with uncertainty so much in regards to ACTUAL infections can be justified or taken seriously.

Do we really believe that only 90,000 people in China had the virus from over a Billion?

If the actual figure was double that, the mortality rate halfs, as does the critical rate. Makes such a huge difference in the grand scheme of things.

[swebby]

12 minutes ago, MAF said:

and heres a thought; will us hay fever sufferers be labelled covid-19 spreaders every time we sneeze?

Tree pollen stuff's me and i develop a "seasonal" irritating cough. Not so much irritating to me, more my colleagues, who noticed i had a cough every April.  Packed in the cancer sticks in Feb, so hopefully will not be so bad this year, but will not be surprised if i'm kicked off the bus if  it does develop.  Weirdly i'm fine come the grass pollen season from June onwards!

Interesting thought about hay-fever, and this is speculation on my part! But i wonder if it also plays a role in the seasonality of some viruses? If you have hay-fever, it is basically your innate immune system going into hyper-drive. I wonder if that makes respiratory viral infection more difficult?

[Summer Sun]

Breaking: BBC to delay TV licence fee changes for the over-75s until August

[kold weather]

Iran has registered another 129 deaths today, and obviously good chance that is not the real figure, however it is still a fairly high figure.

IF things don't get settled soon though, that number will be the average number of deaths for most western and central European countries.

[alexisj9]

2 minutes ago, Snowycat said:

Just a question for those who understand these issues far more than I.  Why are they not suspending stock market trading with the tanking of markets around the world?  Can I rest assured once this virus nightmare is over, when ever that is, the markets will recover?

I personally would have sold all my shares as soon as the virus made it here, but as to what's for the best now, I have no idea, I do not expect a recovery for quite some time, I do expect it will fall a lot more than it has, but I'm not in a position to advise, what does your advisor say? 

[Bristawl Si]

30 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Macron to give a televised address tonight at 8 PM French time .

Looks like I did the right thing stocking up today ! 

He wouldn’t be doing that unless more restrictions are coming in . The only country now in Europe which resembles any sort of  normality in terms of daily life is the UK. 

 

Been out and about. A big shop in Aldi, well stocked bar loo roll; then onto Tesco for some specific branded stuff we need; there was no loo roll or heinz baked beans. I like to think we have an excuse, as we were emptying our larder and freezer, due to 8 weeks in Fuerteventura from next Wed. Now postponed.