COVID-19 Pandemic

[Ryukai]

3 hours ago, CatchMyDrift said:

There's going to be no sport for months, could we round them up and do a Battle Royale (Hunger Games for the younger viewer) with them? Mostly joking but partly not!

Prize for the winner, A lifetime supply of Loo rolls    

[The PIT]

Just now, Summer Sun said:

Breaking: The Foreign Office have advised against “all but essential travel” to the US after President Trump introduced a travel ban on the UK

I didn't think you could go anyway.

[cyclonic happiness]

14 minutes ago, The4Seasons said:

We are just lucky this has not a severe mortality rate like ebola or we would have been done for. Useless planning ahead was the failure here. 

That's the thing, the virus has already split in to two strains, now send those two strains off through half the world's population and god only know what mutations will occur? (hopefully less impact full, but viruses want to live and spread as well as possible, so probably more virility would occur?).

That's just the risk that we cannot take in these early days

[Summer Sun]

Just now, The PIT said:

I didn't think you could go anyway.

You can still travel up to 4am on Tuesday whilst US citizens can return during the ban from 13 designated UK airports 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

4 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

What the world population is going to end ? Try and think rationally.

What is the actual mortality rate percentage wise of this virus?maybe you can enlighten everyone on that instead of making the situation sound even worse than it already is.

Need to stay calm and stop thinking the worst case scenario is going to happen,ok ?

Seems to be variable in each country. Healthcare availability being a key statistic. Germany, high cases - few deaths. Italy the opposite. Many deaths and cases potentially undetected. This may just still be the beginning. 

A little knowledge can be a very dangerous thing, as it’s now proving! 

[alexisj9]

44 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Exactly.

Another problem I foresee is that although the government's approach may be correct scientifically (though arguable), I just doubt it is going to hold politically as the weeks go on, and we'll see a gradual shift from a soft to a hard approach. 

Not looking for medical advice but sore throat, slight fever, loss of energy... seeing as I have to be unwell, I'm kind of hoping I've got the virus right now so I can do my bit for the "herd" and get this over and done with, rather than go through another illness in a few weeks !

Same here, with a dry cough too, I'm wondering if I've been Ill since the headache I had last week. 

[Snipper]

11 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Great news and again proves that the vast majority recover quickly ie within a week.

The way some folk are stock piling you'd think they were going to be locked down for months on end

Could be an ill wind that might blow the government some good. She got better and was able to wipe her backside!

[Nick L]

6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Breaking: The Foreign Office have advised against “all but essential travel” to the US after President Trump introduced a travel ban on the UK

Well that's storm chasing knackered this year then.

[kold weather]

26 minutes ago, Donegal said:

Working out pretty well for South Korea (8000+)and they have 8x times the cases of UK. South Korea reports 76 new coronavirus cases in 24 hours -- this is an all time low since February 20th, and the first time droppping to double digits since then. Third day in a row where released patients outnumber the additional confirmed cases. Futile waste of time indeed. Better to let nature take its course and kill off whoever before more is known about this virus and good treatment and a vaccine is found. 

It never got out of control in South Korea, they got 8,000 cases because they probably found a large percentage of the initial people who may have been infected, and quarantined  those that were negative but had connections to those who were positive, therefore squashing it before it blew up.

Unfortunately in this country, the horse hasn't just bolted, the horse is now half a mile across the neighbors farm!

As Matt said, its probably 2-3 weeks too late for that to be a realistic policy. Thats not to say testing doesn't have its uses, but we probably have 8000 cases at least in the wilds right now, good luck tracing 8,000 peoples every movement at the same time, can't be done.

Edited March 15, 2020 by kold weather

[matty007]

Truth be told, trying to calculate the mortality and spread of a virus is largely futile until you have very sizeable data and the pandemic is over. If the population of a country is 60 million and you are testing 10,000 a day, how do you know this is an accurate representation of the virus spread? If you are getting more critical cases than average and doing an average number of tests, then, of course, the mortality of that virus in that country will be very skewed.

Also, if the population is 60 million and you do 10,000 tests, and many of them on that given day were negative, you are led to believe that the virus is slowing. This is largely not the case, you have just tested a very very small sample from a large demographic that may have MANY mild cases.

There are so many variables.

Edited March 15, 2020 by matty007

[AWD]

9 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Breaking: The Foreign Office have advised against “all but essential travel” to the US after President Trump introduced a travel ban on the UK

Surely a travel ban means no travel?  Does the travel ban the USA have imposed exclude essential travel then? 

[Dreckly]

26 minutes ago, Spikecollie said:

I can though! Self isolation would be made so much easier for people if they had a canine/feline to snuggle up to. Likewise when/if you are sick.

Think I'm joking: 

'A good dog': Robo-pup helps people with dementia

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

The robot is used as part of a live animal therapy treatment to help encourage emotional attachment.

 

I have two dogs and a cat to snuggle.

[matty007]

3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

It never got out of control in South Korea, they got 8,000 cases because they probably found a large percentage of the initial people who may have been infected, and quarantined  those that were negative but had connections to those who were positive, therefore squashing it before it blew up.

Unfortunately in this country, the horse hasn't just bolted, the horse is now half a mile across the neighbors farm!

As Matt said, its probably 2-3 weeks too late for that to be a realistic policy. Thats not to say testing doesn't have its uses, but we probably have 8000 cases at least in the wilds right now, good luck tracing 8,000 peoples every movement at the same time, can't be done.

Yes.

[Captain Shortwave]

17 minutes ago, matty007 said:

Firstly, this could be due to many factors. You don't know how accurate their figures are, and the efficency of their testing. Many countires are slow to report, and you then see peaks. Or, they could simply report well under the real figure. Secondly, the reported cases have nothing to do with actual cases. These are simply the small number of people who have been tested, from a very large demographic.

If the figures are correct, and there is also slow spread (which we will actually never know for sure because we have no way of testing an entire country) then it is indeed very good news. However, you also have to factor that South Korea typically isolate much more extensivly than most other countries.

I am simply trying to convey my opinion, and indeed the opinion of most professionals who know much more than me, that testing and social tracing are largely ineffective once you have extensive community spread.

 

The fact that the majority from one source helped traced in that regards which gave them a good chance. Ironically that mass outbreak may have helped longer term as it initiated the need for high numbers of tests early on in this global outbreak.

[Ravelin]

17 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Great news and again proves that the vast majority recover quickly ie within a week.

The way some folk are stock piling you'd think they were going to be locked down for months on end

But isn't that exactly what the government are suggesting over 70s will likely be asked to do. Not the over 70s that will currently be panic buying, but if you send out this kind of message don't be shocked at the response. 

[kold weather]

10th person to die in Germany and 543 new cases upto this morning.

[matty007]

Just now, kold weather said:

10th person to die in Germany and 543 new cases upto this morning.

That is a huge increase.

[Azores Hi]

34 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

My hay-fever started weeks ago now, however I can tell the difference between that and a cold or cough, I'm hoping most people can. 

I mentioned it not because the symptoms could be confused, rather that those symptoms, itchy eyes, runny nose and sneezing will likely increase the risk of the virus spreading. 

[Summer Sun]

 

[The PIT]

Looks like Germany the place to be if you get the virus only 9 deaths. Another big increase of the number of infections by 543. However very few have recovered so far so the death number could start to climb in the coming weeks unless they have a well functioning health service.

[Nick L]

4 minutes ago, AWD said:

Surely a travel ban means no travel?  Does the travel ban the USA have imposed exclude essential travel then? 

I suspect it is very much independent of the ban. That is, even if the ban was lifted the govt would advise against travel like they have done with Spain and Italy.

[swebby]

16 minutes ago, pip22 said:

Sky News

@SkyNews·14m

Coronavirus: UK in 'far worse' position than most of Europe on key equipment

No surprise really, and i have doubts that they we will be in any better a position by the time peak infection hits.

At that point, you will be looking at well over  100,000 new cases per day*. If you take a ten fold level of buttressing (very mild/assymptomatic cases)  and a potential 10% of the remaining severe cases developing into acute cases requiring a level of medical intervention, that is a 1,000 a day for a four to eight week period.  If you are optimistic and increase the buttressing estimate to 20 fold and drop the acute case percentage of the remainder to 5% (which is what the governments thinking is), that may still be 1750 a week needing medical intervention.

*NB with a rate of 100,000 cases per day, it will still take 18 months to infect 80% of the Uk population

[Country Boy]

1 minute ago, Nick L said:

I suspect it is very much independent of the ban. That is, even if the ban was lifted the govt would advise against travel like they have done with Spain and Italy.

But Ryanair. Are still flying to Spain. ?????

[kold weather]

4 minutes ago, matty007 said:

That is a huge increase.

You think thats bad, wait for this cracker:

Switzerland up +842, now 2217 UP from 1375...thats a solid 35-40% roughly! I've been saying for a couple of days to watch them, they are going to blow up just like Italy and Spain I suspect...

Edited March 15, 2020 by kold weather

[jimben]

Do you think that the weather is also playing it's part in assisting the virus with this continual run of mild wet and damp conditions