COVID-19 Pandemic

[kold weather]

22 minutes ago, matty007 said:

111 cases? Haha. You can probably multiply that by factor of 100, at least.

There does seem to be a resonable argument that hotter climates do seem to have slower transmission, outside China of course. Whether this is down to the inaccuracy of figures, or that, we shall have to see.

 

What is interesting is Thailand, Philippines and Indonesia all are reporting a similar uptick of cases recently, so that is probably bad news for those who are praying the summer weather shuts this thing down, because its clearly spreading out there. Maybe not as rapidly, but that is a difference in efficiency, rather than a stop.

[abruzzi spur]

19 minutes ago, Onding said:

It is a flawed, incredibly basic analogy and doesn't account for several factors that define Covid-19.

Righty ho.

[Puddy Galore]

14 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Great posts from Matty007 over last hours, very insightful. Nice one Matty

I agree entirely, brilliant and so level headed.  Thank you so much Matty007 for your time and effort in compiling these posts.  , 

[nick sussex]

I think we should be concentrating on cases that end up in hospital and those in intensive cars re figures and fatalities .

That I think gives a better idea of the situation. 

The confirmed cases comparisons are difficult because there are lots of differences between each countries testing procedures.

Edited March 15, 2020 by nick sussex

[AWD]

13 minutes ago, snowdog said:

That's a good tracker.Unfortunately the UK will probably drop off now surely, due to the fact that only cases in hospital will be tested for the virus?

I may be being thick here but if the UK is only testing people in hospitals from now on, then that means they are only testing the more seriously affected people, therefore won't this severely skew the mortality rate to a much higher rate than what it probably is? 

If the self isolating, milder cases aren't being tested, then the true figures will never be known, therefore the true mortality rate and ICU rate will never be known? 

Comparing us to other countries who are testing everybody would also be pointless. 

Edited March 15, 2020 by AWD
Add more

[Summer Sun]

China have reported 20 new cases and 10 new deaths all in Hubei - They have 39 new suspected cases.

1,370 patients were discharged and 1,409 released from self-isolation.

[Snowy L]

1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

That would be a good thing to communicate. I'll be honest, I'm still really unclear about how this thing works, might be my own ignorance but it's because I read conflicting things. I read that you can have it without knowing it - in which case clearly people will transmit blind.

I've had a sore throat for 4 days and, because I've developed this idea I can have it and not know it (and I work in a place that would be ideal for transmission), I'm wondering if I've got it right now, even though I don't have the headline symptoms! 

But if it's only usually transmitable when you have the cough/fever, that will help us all know the enemy, so to speak! 

I also read it as optimal infectivity being in the first 1 or 2 days of symptoms, but you are still infectious in the presymptomatic stage, just not as much as the optimal first couple of days of symptoms. 

[markyo]

Thought they'd cancelled the Rugby?....Looks like the just moved it to my local Asda yesterday,people were a disgrace. It brought out the worse in folk. Yes we may be scared but no need to behave like that. One old lady was nearly in tears,she'd been in everyday since tuesday trying to get paracetamol for her husband,the selfish cattle had stripped everything,and i mean everything. We are entering uncharted waters,we need to stop this selfish crap and become caring humans again.

[Gael_Force]

12 minutes ago, snowdog said:

That's a good tracker.Unfortunately the UK will probably drop off now surely, due to the fact that only cases in hospital will be tested for the virus?

I'm sure I read, early on, testing would stop when community spread was confirmed and pandemic declared. In other words, testing is only effective in the early stage when identification and isolation might mean something. Beyond that, people with symptoms are then just assumed to have the disease and will be added to statistics for later analysis of CFR.

[Zak M]

Nuts!

 

[Guest]

10 minutes ago, kold weather said:

What is interesting is Thailand, Philippines and Indonesia all are reporting a similar uptick of cases recently, so that is probably bad news for those who are praying the summer weather shuts this thing down, because its clearly spreading out there. Maybe not as rapidly, but that is a difference in efficiency, rather than a stop.

Our curve will likely be on the way down by the summer anyway, but yes I agree the summer warmth seems to be a slow rather than a stop. For the UK, I'd be more worried about a second wave timed over the winter months.

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, matty007 said:

Agreed. Personally, I do believe the warmer climate does slow the virus somewhat, but as you rightly say, it is not a stop as such.

Many of these countries cases are orders of magnitude higher than what is reported. Iran is probably over 1 million, US is woefully lower than it should be. This is the scary thing about viruses such as this and Influenza. They spread so quickly and fiercely but the actual numbers are hidden from you. People think there's just 1,000 in the UK? There's probably 20,000 or more. With a R0 of around 2.2, that does not take long at all to turn into the millions. Weeks, if left unchecked. And to think that this all orginated from one bat....

Unfortunately, this will only happen again if wet markets are not banned for good.

Agreed, and that's if you believe the R0 is around 2.2 as well. There are other reputable sources that have the R0 between 3 and 4.

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, markyo said:

Thought they'd cancelled the Rugby?....Looks like the just moved it to my local Asda yesterday,people were a disgrace. It brought out the worse in folk. Yes we may be scared but no need to behave like that. One old lady was nearly in tears,she'd been in everyday since tuesday trying to get paracetamol for her husband,the selfish cattle had stripped everything,and i mean everything. We are entering uncharted waters,we need to stop this selfish crap and become caring humans again.

Much of that apparent daftness'll be down to would-be black marketeers, I suspect...Out to make a killing! (pun very-much intended!) Scum!

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, matty007 said:

Agreed. Personally, I do believe the warmer climate does slow the virus somewhat, but as you rightly say, it is not a stop as such.

Many of these countries cases are orders of magnitude higher than what is reported. Iran is probably over 1 million, US is woefully lower than it should be. This is the scary thing about viruses such as this and Influenza. They spread so quickly and fiercely but the actual numbers are hidden from you. People think there's just 1,000 in the UK? There's probably 20,000 or more. With a R0 of around 2.2, that does not take long at all to turn into the millions. Weeks, if left unchecked. And to think that this all orginated from one bat....

Unfortunately, this will only happen again if wet markets are not banned for good.

Literally that is what happens in Contagion, one bat!

The ultimate example of a butterfly effect I suppose! One small change and everything that is happening ceases to exist. 

As you say, the cases are probably too low, and I feel the government has been somewhat behind the curve of where they need to be. I do understand the fatigue idea, but all we are doing instead is front ,oading the illness/deaths instead of trying to extend that peak through social distancing. I mean it seems we are doing the same thing as the other countries eventually, jusy taking so long that we will implement them when the cases reach levels where thousands of deaths are inevitable.

I fully expect a big rise in deaths towards the end of next weekend and the Cheltenham/Liverpool Madrid crowd start to filter through and some don't recover and sprial into that critical state at day 7 of illness.

[matty007]

1 minute ago, Onding said:

Agreed, and that's if you believe the R0 is around 2.2 as well. There are other reputable sources that have the R0 between 3 and 4.

True. I think most reports seem to hover around 2-2.4 but you can't get a completely accurate picture until all the cases have been tallied at the end. However, given the rate in which the documented cases are doubling, around 2-2.5 does seem probably thereabouts.

[kold weather]

4 minutes ago, Onding said:

Our curve will likely be on the way down by the summer anyway, but yes I agree the summer warmth seems to be a slow rather than a stop. For the UK, I'd be more worried about a second wave timed over the winter months.

A poor summer will mean we are never that far outside of the optimal region for this virus to survive anyway. A hot summer obviously will do it wonders but its not a cure by any stretch. 

I think we will probably peak earlier than the govt and its adivisors think, I know they are aiming for June but I think May is probably realistic at the moment, maybe trailing into early June. 

 

[Snowy L]

Not one of the scientists who sent that letter to the government was a virologist and many of them were students (i.e. people who have zero experience). This is why I hate the "scientists said it so it must be true and you're wrong argument" that so many jump to now. Which scientists? Are these scientists in a field relevant to the argument?  I don't care what a doctor in gender studies has to say about this, I care what a doctor in virology has to say about it.

Edited March 15, 2020 by Snowy L

[Azores Hi]

I visited my mum and my grandmother in law yesterday. 
My mum mentioned her hay fever has kicked in and I have woken up this morning with itchy eyes and caught myself rubbing them.

it occurred to me then that hay fever symptoms will probably increase the spread of Covid-19 simply because of all those itchy eyes, runny noses and sneezing. That’s not helpful! 

 

[matty007]

3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Literally that is what happens in Contagion, one bat!

The ultimate example of a butterfly effect I suppose! One small change and everything that is happening ceases to exist. 

As you say, the cases are probably too low, and I feel the government has been somewhat behind the curve of where they need to be. I do understand the fatigue idea, but all we are doing instead is front ,oading the illness/deaths instead of trying to extend that peak through social distancing. I mean it seems we are doing the same thing as the other countries eventually, jusy taking so long that we will implement them when the cases reach levels where thousands of deaths are inevitable.

I fully expect a big rise in deaths towards the end of next weekend and the Cheltenham/Liverpool Madrid crowd start to filter through and some don't recover and sprial into that critical state at day 7 of illness.

Contagion was eerly similar to this virus and an amazing movie if you have an interest in medicine and diseases.

[matty007]

1 minute ago, Azores Hi said:

I visited my mum and my grandmother in law yesterday. 
My mum mentioned her hay fever has kicked in and I have woken up this morning with itchy eyes and caught myself rubbing them.

it occurred to me then that hay fever symptoms will probably increase the spread of Covid-19 simply because of all those itchy eyes, runny noses and sneezing. That’s not helpful! 

 

That's actually a very good point and one I hadn't thought of.

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

A poor summer will mean we are never that far outside of the optimal region for this virus to survive anyway. A hot summer obviously will do it wonders but its not a cure by any stretch. 

I think we will probably peak earlier than the govt and its adivisors think, I know they are aiming for June but I think May is probably realistic at the moment, maybe trailing into early June. 

 

I agree that May could be the peak. With forecasts of a La Nina summer our own weather may not help us! 

[matty007]

3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

A poor summer will mean we are never that far outside of the optimal region for this virus to survive anyway. A hot summer obviously will do it wonders but its not a cure by any stretch. 

I think we will probably peak earlier than the govt and its adivisors think, I know they are aiming for June but I think May is probably realistic at the moment, maybe trailing into early June. 

 

If the virus continues to double as it is, then yes, Late April-May will be the peak.

[matty007]

Just now, Onding said:

I agree that May could be the peak. With forecasts of a La Nina summer our own weather may not help us! 

Here's hoping for a 2018 repeat

[Gael_Force]

3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

A poor summer will mean we are never that far outside of the optimal region for this virus to survive anyway. A hot summer obviously will do it wonders but its not a cure by any stretch. 

I think we will probably peak earlier than the govt and its adivisors think, I know they are aiming for June but I think May is probably realistic at the moment, maybe trailing into early June. 

 

The theory of summer fall-off is people being outdoors and virus not surviving on surfaces. If people are stuck indoors in a lockdown, this rather negates summer benefits.

[Summer Sun]