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COVID-19 Pandemic


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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
4 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

That would be a good thing to communicate. I'll be honest, I'm still really unclear about how this thing works, might be my own ignorance but it's because I read conflicting things. I read that you can have it without knowing it - in which case clearly people will transmit blind.

I've had a sore throat for 4 days and, because I've developed this idea I can have it and not know it (and I work in a place that would be ideal for transmission), I'm wondering if I've got it right now, even though I don't have the headline symptoms! 

But if it's only usually transmitable when you have the cough/fever, that will help us all know the enemy, so to speak! 

I agree it’s been confusing . There seemed to be a lot of media about transmitting without knowing you had it . But if you can’t transmit it until you’re  show symptoms then that would make a huge difference .

 

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Posted
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny with night time t-storms
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
Just now, nick sussex said:

I agree it’s been confusing . There seemed to be a lot of media about transmitting without knowing you had it . But if you can’t transmit it until you’re  show symptoms then that would make a huge difference .

 

It would be a welcome piece of news but why was there so much talk about asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic transfer early on? This reality would take care of the pre-symptomatic worries but not the asymptomatic.

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Posted
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny with night time t-storms
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)

M. Blanquer, the French Education Minister has said that most of the French population are going to get COVID-19. Why is the Education Minister pronouncing on health matters? The less of this cross-disciplinary communication that happens the better, in my opinion. Health issues should be discussed and communicated by the relevant health authorities - otherwise it is just newsfeed for the alarmists, especially in the media.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
4 minutes ago, Spikecollie said:

M. Blanquer, the French Education Minister has said that most of the French population are going to get COVID-19. Why is the Education Minister pronouncing on health matters? The less of this cross-disciplinary communication that happens the better, in my opinion. Health issues should be discussed and communicated by the relevant health authorities - otherwise it is just newsfeed for the alarmists, especially in the media.

Perhaps the health minister is ill ?

In this country movement is also needed on stopping people from panic buying plus all high risk groups being allowed to stay at home.

Edited by The PIT
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Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and hot.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
pubmed256blue.png
WWW.NCBI.NLM.NIH.GOV

Sci China Life Sci. 2020 Mar 4. doi: 10.1007/s11427-020-1661-4. [Epub ahead of print]


"Through epidemiological investigation, we observed a typical asymptomatic transmission to the cohabiting family members, which even caused severe COVID-19 pneumonia"
 

jld200013f1.png?Expires=2147483647&Signa
JAMANETWORK.COM

This study describes possible transmission of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from an asymptomatic Wuhan resident to 5 family members in...

A familial cluster of 5 patients with COVID-19 pneumonia in Anyang, China, had contact before their symptom onset with an asymptomatic family member who had traveled from the epidemic center of Wuhan. The sequence of events suggests that the coronavirus may have been transmitted by the asymptomatic carrier.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Philippines again have a 3+ death rise. My guess is they are rather under-reporting the cases over there, 11 deaths from 111 cases is rather high for what is a low amount of cases that shouldn't be overstretching them.

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Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and hot.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
Just now, kold weather said:

Philippines again have a 3+ death rise. My guess is they are rather under-reporting the cases over there, 11 deaths from 111 cases is rather high for what is a low amount of cases that shouldn't be overstretching them.

111 cases? Haha. You can probably multiply that by factor of 100, at least.

There does seem to be a resonable argument that hotter climates do seem to have slower transmission, outside China of course. Whether this is down to the inaccuracy of figures, or that, we shall have to see.

 

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Posted
  • Location: North York Moors
  • Location: North York Moors

After being concerned and wishing it could have been held in China earlier I'm now resigned to the inevitable truth it cannot be stopped but fairly simple personal measures make more difference than anything else
Avoiding crowds and 'arms lengthing' as much as possible, and imagine surfaces others have touched have got sticky dog poo on them will be far more effective than widespread shutdowns that cannot be maintained for long enough anyway.

In a couple of years time it will probably seem similar to (rather forgotten) Hong Kong flu in 1968, only hopefully a vaccine will be available later this year
What did we do then? Just got on with things and practiced basic hygiene as recommended now.
The major difference now is media driven hysteria like never before.

 

Edited by 4wd
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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
2 minutes ago, Wiltshire_snow_lover said:

 

5,000 is no where near, you'll probably need at least another 0 at the end of that to have a good chance...and they damn well know it...

Starting to get a sense of panic that they know they are in trouble.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
2 minutes ago, matty007 said:
pubmed256blue.png
WWW.NCBI.NLM.NIH.GOV

Sci China Life Sci. 2020 Mar 4. doi: 10.1007/s11427-020-1661-4. [Epub ahead of print]


"Through epidemiological investigation, we observed a typical asymptomatic transmission to the cohabiting family members, which even caused severe COVID-19 pneumonia"
 

jld200013f1.png?Expires=2147483647&Signa
JAMANETWORK.COM

This study describes possible transmission of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from an asymptomatic Wuhan resident to 5 family members in...

A familial cluster of 5 patients with COVID-19 pneumonia in Anyang, China, had contact before their symptom onset with an asymptomatic family member who had traveled from the epidemic center of Wuhan. The sequence of events suggests that the coronavirus may have been transmitted by the asymptomatic carrier.

Could it be that asymptomatic spread needs a longer period of close contact in a family setting  or is it that it’s much harder to test community transmission asymptomatic spread .

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

 

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
1 minute ago, 4wd said:

After being concerned and wishing it could have been held in China earlier I'm now resigned to the inevitable truth it cannot be stopped but fairly simple personal measures.
Avoiding crowds and 'arms lengthing' as much as possible, and imagine surfaces others have touched have got sticky dog poo on them will be far more effective than widespread shutdowns that cannot be maintained for long enough anyway.

In a couple of years time it will probably seem similar to (rather forgotten) Hong Kong flu in 1968, only hopefully a vaccine will be available later this year
What did we do then? Just got on with things and practiced basic hygiene as recommended now.
The major difference now is media driven hysteria like never before.

 

I've been saying from the start that the Hong Kong Flu is something I suspect this will be like.

However given how it has recently blown up,I'm starting to wonder if this won't be closer in magnitude to the Spanish Flu than that 1968 flu pandemic. Now I'm not saying it will get as bad as that, but whether or not it will be remembered more like that than the Hong Kong Flu.

I think given how this is going destroy many health services and economies, this one won't be forgotten in any great hurry.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Here is a graph I made comparing cases reported starting from the first day they reported 100 cases. Spain is actually tracking worse than Italy at the moment. Uk broadly where France/Germany were at the same time, just a smidgen lower.

image.thumb.png.496bff02a785ec32f32a16ecbefaa1e9.png

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Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and hot.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Could it be that asymptomatic spread needs a longer period of close contact in a family setting  or is it that it’s much harder to test community transmission asymptomatic spread .

It is very hard to know definitively if there is absolute asymptomatic spread because there are so many cases, and trying to decypher when they had contact, and if the person who subsequently got sick, got sick from the other person before they showed symptoms. It's like a needle in a haystack.

I have seen a few studies that have shown that someone has been in contact with another when that other person showed no symptoms. That first person then had no contact after and still became sick. This suggests that asymptomatic spread does exist. The rate of transmission is largely comparable to influenza, in fact, even more so. Given its characteristics, and a large number of medical reports in the agreement of asymptomatic spread, it does make it very likely. 

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Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and hot.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
8 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Great posts from Matty007 over last hours, very insightful. Nice one Matty

Thank you. You're most welcome.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Corfe Mullen,Wimborne
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Corfe Mullen,Wimborne
3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Here is a graph I made comparing cases reported starting from the first day they reported 100 cases. Spain is actually tracking worse than Italy at the moment. Uk broadly where France/Germany were at the same time, just a smidgen lower.

image.thumb.png.496bff02a785ec32f32a16ecbefaa1e9.png

That's a good tracker.Unfortunately the UK will probably drop off now surely, due to the fact that only cases in hospital will be tested for the virus?

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Just now, snowdog said:

That's a good tracker.Unfortunately the UK will probably drop off now surely, due to the fact that only cases in hospital will be tested for the virus?

In theory as the disease spreads the cases may level out but the more cases out there, the more will get admitted into hospital and then that line will start to rise up again. Besides, its not something to take too seriously since cases are going to be higher than that anyway, just gives an idea of how each country is performing relative to others around them.

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