COVID-19 Pandemic

[fujita5]

32 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

But for me, the number one priority of a government is to keep its people safe. Keeping them alive is the first part of keeping them safe.

Sorry, but from my perspective, I couldn't really care less if the economy crashes, or if we need to call the army in, or if we need to go through this all over again in another lock down in the future - if all this means keeping people alive, to me, it's worth it. People can earn money again in the future, but they can't get their parents and grandparents back. 

Edit - just seen replies to my earlier comment - my personal opinion is complete lock down right now. It's been shown to stop the cases, and that's priority number 1 for me. Worry about what comes next after. 

I absolutely agree. Goods, money, jobs.... While they are hugely important they are less important than the lives of our citizens.

The government will be weighing all this up to balance the massive hit on the economy against how many will die. Crap job to have to do.

I just hope the inevitable rioting isn't too serious and not too much damage is done to our cities as it will just exacerbate the already horrific situation we're about to descend in to.

Edited March 14, 2020 by fujita5
Changed "lemon job" to "crap job". Autocorrect on my phone is a pain...

[summer blizzard]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

What I still am not sure about .

I initially thought that once in the body the virus just multiplied anyway so the initial amount you were exposed to wouldn’t make a big differerence.

The inference from that doctor is that’s not the case . Is that what others understand or am I missing something .

I think the amount is relevant in so far as your body starts generating anti-bodies earlier so you get milder symptoms. As opposed to being a nurse in a hospital that gets a repeated amount that overwhelmes much quicker.

[Weather-history]

Jeez

 

[Zak M]

 

[summer blizzard]

1 minute ago, fujita5 said:

I absolutely agree. Goods, money, jobs.... While they are hugely important they are less important than the lives of our citizens.

The government will be weighing all this up to balance the massive hit on the economy against how many will die. lemon job to have to do.

I just hope the inevitable rioting isn't too serious and not too much damage is done to our cities as it will just exacerbate the already horrific situation we're about to descend in to.

While people like MWB are getting very critical of the government its worth noting that the quarantine sample size (successful) so far is 1, Wuhan. South Korea took action closer to ours and much more localised.

Since Italy imposed its semi-quarantine (i believe people stopped working in Wuhan but not Italy) less than a week ago we don't yet know if its successful and the duration we need to stamp hard for. Things like shutting schools are peicemeal that will barely affect the percentage of infection and while it may cause some people to panic beforehand, it's better than we put the foot on the throat of this virus in one go once we know how far we need to go and for how long. We might not be able to say that in Italy for even another week. 

I would cull incoming flights now though, no reason to add to the problem.

[snefnug]

Re lockdown v herding.  The wiki page for Hubei lockdowns. 

2020 Hubei lockdowns - Wikipedia

EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

is very interesting.   Quote 1.

“The World Health Organization called the Wuhan lockdown "unprecedented" and said it showed "how committed the authorities are to contain a viral breakout". However, WHO clarified that the move is not a recommendation that WHO had made and authorities have to wait and see how effective it is.[2] The WHO has separately stated that the possibility of locking down an entire city like this is "new to science".[27]”

quote 2.

”The unprecedented scale of this lockdown generated controversy, and at least one expert criticized this measure as "risky business" that "could very easily backfire" by forcing otherwise healthy people in Wuhan to stay in close conditions with infected people.[29]”

 

given the population of Wuhan, the numbers tested for infection, the numbers infected and the death numbers. Isn’t there a presumption that herd had occurred?

 

[kold weather]

9 minutes ago, fujita5 said:

I absolutely agree. Goods, money, jobs.... While they are hugely important they are less important than the lives of our citizens.

The government will be weighing all this up to balance the massive hit on the economy against how many will die. lemon job to have to do.

I just hope the inevitable rioting isn't too serious and not too much damage is done to our cities as it will just exacerbate the already horrific situation we're about to descend in to.

Yes, I mean whatever route the government goes there are going to be multiple 10s on thousands of deaths, that is also probably on the light side in all probalbity.

In a way, you have to admire Johnson's approach, because the politically easy decision would have been to follow the herd (so to speak!) and at least there would be some safety in numbers if it all went wrong. If it all goes wrong the Tories will be out of power for a generation. So its a brave call to follow the politically difficult call the advisers have suggested, despite all the questions coming from just about all sources outside of this country.

[kold weather]

7 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

While people like MWB are getting very critical of the government its worth noting that the quarantine sample size (successful) so far is 1, Wuhan. South Korea took action closer to ours and much more localised.

 

Technically 2, because a few towns in North Italy that went into lockdown first of all before the bigger lockdown have had 0 new cases in the last 2 days. Admittedly that is on a tiny scale compared to Wuhan!

South Korea is very different to us, they tested so extensively that they literally caught most of the virus before it got out of hand and nipped it in the bud. We haven't gone anywhere near their level. Even then they still have a small undercurrent of cases that keep popping up each day.

[nick sussex]

So let’s say someone coughs on you that would be a high initial viral load if you breathe it in .

Then lets say in a different scenario you touch an infected  surface and then touch the side of your mouth . Smaller viral load .

The smaller amount once they get into your system  triggers the anti bodies but the latter do a better job of fighting it.

The higher viral load in effect overwhelms .

Wouldn’t this then imply that anti body response isn’t proportionate to virus amount because if it was wouldn’t a large initial viral load be met with a similar anti body response .

If even a tiny amount of the virus causes a large response then shouldn’t we be getting advice as to how to keep the viral load down even if we’re infected.

Edited March 14, 2020 by nick sussex

[ciel]

12 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

While people like MWB are getting very critical of the government its worth noting that the quarantine sample size (successful) so far is 1, Wuhan. South Korea took action closer to ours and much more localised.

Since Italy imposed its semi-quarantine (i believe people stopped working in Wuhan but not Italy) less than a week ago we don't yet know if its successful and the duration we need to stamp hard for. Things like shutting schools are peicemeal that will barely affect the percentage of infection and while it may cause some people to panic beforehand, it's better than we put the foot on the throat of this virus in one go once we know how far we need to go and for how long. We might not be able to say that in Italy for even another week. 

I would cull incoming flights now though, no reason to add to the problem.

South Korea has a quite different approach to the UK.

Is S Korea's rapid testing the key to coronavirus?

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

South Korea is testing more people per capita than anywhere else - and could be a role model for others.

Sorry,kw. posts crossed.

Edited March 14, 2020 by ciel

[Zak M]

 

[The PIT]

6 minutes ago, snefnug said:

Re lockdown v herding.  The wiki page for Hubei lockdowns. 

2020 Hubei lockdowns - Wikipedia

EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

is very interesting.   Quote 1.

“The World Health Organization called the Wuhan lockdown "unprecedented" and said it showed "how committed the authorities are to contain a viral breakout". However, WHO clarified that the move is not a recommendation that WHO had made and authorities have to wait and see how effective it is.[2] The WHO has separately stated that the possibility of locking down an entire city like this is "new to science".[27]”

quote 2.

”The unprecedented scale of this lockdown generated controversy, and at least one expert criticized this measure as "risky business" that "could very easily backfire" by forcing otherwise healthy people in Wuhan to stay in close conditions with infected people.[29]”

 

given the population of Wuhan, the numbers tested for infection, the numbers infected and the death numbers. Isn’t there a presumption that herd had occurred?

 

I wouldn't quote wikipedia not the most reliable sources.

However so far stats are backing the Chinese action with only 11 new cases today. The proof is the pudding as too speak of.

In Italy where the lockdown first started no new cases. This means that the health services will get time to recover where our approach is untried and is questionable.

However it seems that organisations outside the government are and will continue to introduce there own lock down process's. So the Governments policy will probably never be really tested.

In the meantime I've just been out to buy more loo rolls for a friend who has run out. Our local shop has some. Can't see that lasting though.

[Spikecollie]

34 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Once again from WHO:

ADVICE FOR YOUR MENTAL HEALTH FROM WHO

"Minimize watching, reading or listening to news that causes you to feel anxious or distressed; seek information only from trusted sources and mainly to take practical steps to prepare your plans and protect yourself and loved ones. Seek information updates at specific times during the day, once or twice. The sudden and near-constant stream of news reports about an outbreak can cause anyone to feel worried" WHO: Mental Health and Psychosocial Considerations During COVID-19 Outbreak.

Important for everyone to remember this, if you feel too invested into it or its making you nervous/anxious, take some time away. Think that is an important message to remember.

Easier said than done! I know I am anxious and my sleep is suffering but you have to keep up to date with what is going on as the situation is changing so rapidly. I'm taking comfort in the sunny day (partly) today that allowed me to get out and do some jobs in the garden. No run today though, my running buddy injured his (dog) wrist yesterday during a ball game and is limping and I never go without him. He was better this evening after day of rest and just gentle walking so the nice sunny day progged for tomorrow will hopefully be good for us to go gently.

[Snipper]

16 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Jeez

 

Anyone buying shares in supermarkets?

[Bristawl Si]

I'm interested in how the Germans are still approaching the virus, as they seem to be adopting the same strategy as the UK.

Read a decent article in Der Speigel, cant post it though as on my mobile. Here is an excerpt from a German scientist:

What happens next? Ziebuhr, the Giessen-based virologist, doesn't believe "that it's possible to completely eliminate this virus." On the contrary: It's on the advance. Ziebuhr argues that stopping the spread of Sars-CoV-2 will only become possible "once a large part of the population develops sufficient immunity to the virus." This could take a year, give or take a few months.

At the same time, if this immunity were to somehow fade, the virus could feasibly return, albeit in a much weaker form, Ziebuhr says. The new coronavirus could join the ranks of other viruses that humans are constantly grappling with, like the common cold or influenza.

[The PIT]

24 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

What I still am not sure about .

I initially thought that once in the body the virus just multiplied anyway so the initial amount you were exposed to wouldn’t make a big  difference.

The inference from that doctor is that’s not the case . Is that what others understand or am I missing something .

The flu jab you get is a weak mixture of the virus's which allow your body to kill and develop an immunity.

So any expose and if the virus gets into you and you kill you should be immune to that strain. However if there's another strain which is different enough you won't have any immunity.

[nick sussex]

Okay my final question !

The mouth and nasal passage seem to be better conditions for the virus to multiply initially .

But do these areas provide constant reinforcements to the virus to help it overwhelm the body .

 

[Bristawl Si]

1 minute ago, Snipper said:

Anyone buying shares in supermarkets?

I hold shares in Morrisons. One of the few i didnt sell down the other week, before markets got battered.

[Snipper]

Just now, Bristle boy said:

I hold shares in Morrisons. One of the few i didnt sell down the other week, before markets got battered.

No shares but I like Morrisons. 

[The PIT]

Just now, nick sussex said:

Okay my final question !

The mouth and nasal passage seem to be better conditions for the virus to multiply initially .

But do these areas provide constant reinforcements to the virus to help it overwhelm the body .

 

I think your thinking far to much about it. If you're fit and healthy you'll probably whack it into touch without any difficulty unless you're very unlucky.

[snefnug]

Just now, The PIT said:

I wouldn't quote wikipedia not the most reliable sources.

However so far stats are backing the Chinese action with only 11 new cases today. The proof is the pudding as too speak of.

In Italy where the lockdown first started no new cases. This means that the health services will get time to recover where our approach is untried and is questionable.

However it seems that organisations outside the government are and will continue to introduce there own lock down process's. So the Governments policy will probably never be really tested.

In the meantime I've just been out to buy more loo rolls for a friend who has run out. Our local shop has some. Can't see that lasting though.

It may not be the most reliable, but it is quoting quoted facts on one page.  There must be some element of herd happening in Italy and Wuhan.  Perhaps someone on the thread might know but I would guess that Wuhan population live in small multiperson apartments, either as parents - adult single  child, young families or co workers.  So maybe, shutdown coincided with peak numbers of herd infections?  Maybe random sample test of 1 in a 1000 now in Wuhan would reveal that.  I should think Chinese government and health services would do this, to find out.  

[AWD]

4 minutes ago, Snipper said:

No shares but I like Morrisons. 

Me too.  Bread is fresh and meat is good. 

[nick sussex]

4 minutes ago, snefnug said:

It may not be the most reliable, but it is quoting quoted facts on one page.  There must be some element of herd happening in Italy and Wuhan.  Perhaps someone on the thread might know but I would guess that Wuhan population live in small multiperson apartments, either as parents - adult single  child, young families or co workers.  So maybe, shutdown coincided with peak numbers of herd infections?  Maybe random sample test of 1 in a 1000 now in Wuhan would reveal that.  I should think Chinese government and health services would do this, to find out.  

Good point . So an initial spike before dropping quite quickly might be what happened.

And of course that meant that any community transmission was minimal during that period.

So if you’re going to lockdown it’s important to keep high risk groups away from other people . And of course that’s not always possible .

Edited March 14, 2020 by nick sussex

[The PIT]

1 minute ago, snefnug said:

It may not be the most reliable, but it is quoting quoted facts on one page.  There must be some element of herd happening in Italy and Wuhan.  Perhaps someone on the thread might know but I would guess that Wuhan population live in small multiperson apartments, either as parents - adult single  child, young families or co workers.  So maybe, shutdown coincided with peak numbers of herd infections?  Maybe random sample test of 1 in a 1000 now in Wuhan would reveal that.  I should think Chinese government and health services would do this, to find out.  

Quoting possible facts but one can go in and alter them. We'll have to watch what happens in China and the hot countries. If china starts to rise again it will be then a case of what they do next. Another full lock down or a partial one to stop health services being overwhelmed. If the infection kicks off in countries that have dry heat then we'll know that summer won't do anything to stem the tide here which will be one part of the Governments plan out of the window.

[Bristawl Si]

Following my post a few mins ago found an article on thelocal.de about what Germany is doing.

Every single thing the UK govt has advised us to do, is exactly what Germans are being told to do.