COVID-19 Pandemic

[kold weather]

4 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

Sorry mate but I just don't get this.  As soon as this virus evolved to infect humans all the events which have occurred since were totally set in stone.  

The government most certainly do not WANT anyone to get it but there's nothing any government can do about it except try to manage the spread so that each individual country's health system can cope.  There is no vaccine.  Therefore there is no prevention.  

We will all have to catch it sometime unless and until a vaccine is available.   Only when sufficient people have caught it and are immune (60% ??) will the virus struggle to spread as the pool of uninfected people dwindles.  This is not government policy.  It's nature doing what nature does.  

I'll be honest, it is IMO what the government wants but it can obviously never say that out loud. The whole point of herd immunity is you need a vast amount of people to get infected. If that is your stated goal, that is the only path to getting that immunty. is to somewhat 'allow' a certain demographic of society to get ill (younger people, especially below the age of 50) as they statisiticaly are less likely to need hospital help, and that will in turn lower the burden on the NHS. What they don't want is an Italy, where many older people get it and they do need the NHS support.

So the govt are trying to subtly target the younger generations and not put in measures that will reduce the rate of spread too drastically at the moment. Once the figures start looking quite high, you will probably find we go into a similar lockdown state as other  countries.

In theory, this should save lives, but as the twitter thread I posted said, its a very risky model and depends utterly on people behaving as the model expects.

[Man With Beard]

9 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Amazing thread here on twitter that explains the government policy, I agree with all of it, but this is put far better than I ever could:

 

Yes brilliantly put. The government strategy seems intelligent, but relies on being able to control the situation. Get it wrong and we'll have a far worse situation than countries in lock down. Also, politically, if in 6 weeks time other countries have deaths in the thousands but the UK in the tens of thousands, how is the nation's morale going to take that? 

I'm kind of moving on from critiquing the government's position, got it out of my system, need to focus on the future now, but this post reminded me why I had my gut feeling of, we should be dealing with the situation as we know it is right now, not as we expect it to be in 6 weeks - like weather forecasts, it's unlikely to be exactly as we expect by then. 

[Yarmy]

1 minute ago, ciel said:

Initially, I was broadly supportive of the government policy regarding this virus, but over the days such confidence has been undermined. For example, why is 10 Downing Street so out on a limb in their strategy (exceptional) compared with the rest of the world and their experts, who no doubt have as admirable CVs as our CMO and CSA. The simple messaging for the masses and reliance on modelling brings to mind the possibility that it is not the scientists pulling the strings.

I’m not sure it really matters as the institutions, bodies, and businesses have effectively all implemented their own lockdowns and measures anyway. It’s the same in the US.

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, Wiltshire_snow_lover said:

Yep i do not want to make this political as banned on here.. But that is beyond the pale 

It's nae all that clever either, WSL: those data clearly show that the government is acting on behalf of the general population, and is in no way being partial...Which is clearly not what that nutjob was intending...?

[Sky Full]

7 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

An interesting sub plot will be what China does next. Do they try to go back to normal? If the virus picks up again, do they go back to lock down? My bet is once they get zero cases, they shut their border indefinitely. 

This is the main draw-back to the knee-jerk lock-down policy - they have contained the virus for the time being, but they certainly haven't eliminated it.  I doubt whether even 5% of the population have developed immunity by contracting the virus so the minute anyone enters the country who is a carrier it will start to spread again.  

China will now have to ruthlessly quarantine itself from the rest of the world for months to ensure no further outbreaks occur.  China almost uniquely can maybe carry out this action but for the majority of other countries it's impossible.

[Zak M]

 

[kold weather]

Just now, Man With Beard said:

Yes brilliantly put. The government strategy seems intelligent, but relies on being able to control the situation. Get it wrong and we'll have a far worse situation than countries in lock down. Also, politically, if in 6 weeks time other countries have deaths in the thousands but the UK in the tens of thousands, how is the nation's morale going to take that? 

I'm kind of moving on from critiquing the government's position, got it out of my system, need to focus on the future now, but this post reminded me why I had my gut feeling of, we should be dealing with the situation as we know it is right now, not as we expect it to be in 6 weeks - like weather forecasts, it's unlikely to be exactly as we expect by then. 

It makes a heck of alot of assumptions. My biggest fear is we go through this and get those tens of thousands of deaths. Equally it does come back again for the lockdown countries but countries just go right back to tight lockdown mode again. In the meantime a China/US company makes a vaccine well in advance of what we think is possible and before any 2nd wave smashes countries a cure or vaccine is brought out. Someone will cut corners/fast track in the situation where millions of lives are at stake, I'm sure.

Then suddenly it will look the worst political mistake probably since appeasement for this country, because we may have a far higher death rate and nothing st the end to show for it as the herd immunity would be rendered pointless.

[SimonG]

I've been following the thread for a while but first post here.

It's interesting to look at the number of hospital beds per capita each country has. There certainly seems some correlation between the fatality rate and number of beds available 
South Korea - 11.5 beds per 1000 people
Italy - 3.4  beds per 1000 people
Germany - 8.3  beds per 1000 people
France - 6.5  beds per 1000 people
Spain - 3.0 beds per 1000 people
UK - 2.8 beds per 1000 people (appears to have fallen to 2.5 beds more recently)

All countries listed here 

Hospital beds (per 1,000 people) - United Kingdom | Data

DATA.WORLDBANK.ORG

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Hospital beds (per 1,000 people) - United Kingdom from The World Bank: Data

There's also stats for doctors / nurses per capita

[Weather-history]

5 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

Not as yet, as far as I can tell. What will the bookies do when all sport stops? 

Which I don't get. Foot and mouth caused horse racing events to be abandoned in 2001, so what is the difference this time with the coronavirus? Football, cricket, golf, marathons etc are postponing, why does horse racing feel different? 

[Gowon]

28 minutes ago, snefnug said:

No sport on TV?  Perfectly good time to relax, take time to read  a book, take a walk, listen to music, tidy the potting shed, sort through seed packets, really clean the house, listen to radio 4, shout at radio 4.  Retune to Radio 3, stay off this thread for at least 4 hours on the trot. That’s my weekend sorted.  

I'm not happy with the bolded bit.

The rest of your day sounds good though.. I'll probably do something similar, except reading a book and sorting through seed packets 

[kold weather]

4 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

 

China will now have to ruthlessly quarantine itself from the rest of the world for months to ensure no further outbreaks occur.  China almost uniquely can maybe carry out this action but for the majority of other countries it's impossible.

I think the last point is the main one the government and advisors are banking on. Its not sustainable long term and there will have to be an easing. My main issue is two fold:

1: If it comes back, surely they just go right back into lockdown. IF it has proven right once, then it will work a second time. 

2: IF it works, the public will be more willing to go along with them, since it is a proven strategy that has held it back. I think people have forgotten how resilient people can be in time of severe crisis. Much like so many sieges in the past, people can hold out a very surprisingly long time even with little resources. We are not so far removed from WW2 for example that people can't adapt back into that way of life for a defined period of time (12-18 months).

Also, if it needs to happen, don't think governents won't go basically into a dictatorship if it is seen to be for the best of the people, history is utterly littered with such example.

[Summer Sun]

Bishop Auckland MP Dehenna Davison is in self-isolation after developing coronavirus-like symptoms.

[Sky Full]

3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

It makes a heck of alot of assumptions. My biggest fear is we go through this and get those tens of thousands of deaths. Equally it does come back again for the lockdown countries but countries just go right back to tight lockdown mode again. In the meantime a China/US company makes a vaccine well in advance of what we think is possible and before any 2nd wave smashes countries a cure or vaccine is brought out. Someone will cut corners/fast track in the situation where millions of lives are at stake, I'm sure.

Then suddenly it will look the worst political mistake probably since appeasement for this country, because we may have a far higher death rate and nothing st the end to show for it as the herd immunity would be rendered pointless.

It is the height of irony that the government might come to hope a vaccine is not available for at least 18 months in order to justify their departure from policies being followed by other countries.....  

However, all the scientific opinion seems to believe that vaccines take a long time to develop, not least because there has to be sufficient testing to make sure the 'cure' is not more lethal than than virus!

[Snow Queen one]

 

[pip22]

 

Coronavirus: Newborn believed to be youngest COVID-19 patient in the UK

NEWS.SKY.COM

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The baby's mother was reportedly brought into hospital days before giving birth and both were later found to have COVID-19.

 

[Gowon]

21 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

Out of 4 people in our household 3 are teachers and the other is still in Secondary school. I suspect class numbers will possibly decline first, as parents withdraw kids but teachers 'soldier on'. In my case I work in a school with a lot of extremely vulnerable children (due to disabilities and health conditions) and I know a lot of parents are already very concerned. 

What baffles me, for a health standpoint, is that schools can be a real focal point for outbreaks of illness. You have lots of people crowded into a confined space 5 days a week, then all heading back out into the community mid afternoon. Even if kids are less likely to be badly affected by this virus I've seen nothing to suggest that they can't get it and can't spread it.

If keeping schools open is primarily an economic argument then the government need to be clear on this. I don't buy the argument that kids will just congregate elsewhere, 90% of the will 'congregate' in thier bedrooms on thier phone/tablet/xbox/ps4. 

I work in a school as well.. I've been off on annual leave for the last week but I'm  back in next week. 

I think they're planning to shut the school a week either end of the easter break.

[Summer Sun]

China have reported 8 new confirmed cases and 7 new deaths - 6 in Hubei and 1 in Shandong

1,318 patients were discharged from hospital with another 2,483 leaving self-isolation

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

35 minutes ago, Snipper said:

And all your passwords?

Cannot reiterate enough to NEVER give out anything personal. It’s Times like these that fraudsters will be rubbing their hands. Be careful. 

[kold weather]

5 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

However, all the scientific opinion seems to believe that vaccines take a long time to develop, not least because there has to be sufficient testing to make sure the 'cure' is not more lethal than than virus!

In normal times I'd totally agree with this, however there will be mega money for a vaccine from this, and also many lives to be saved. I think you'll find some places will super fast track it and possibly go straight to human testing on a large level. If the vaccine saves a 1 million lives, then a 1000 people would be utterly expendable (again, its the Hisorshima argument, possibly kill some to save a greater number) on the grand scheme of things. 

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a full working vaccine by October, though obviously there is still time needed to ramp up production and get it out there. Indeed, there already are numerous first steps down that path that have been completed. I know animal testing for example has been done in London successfully.

Also, reading today that a cure is in the first stages has been started on an antibody proven to work (I think its closer linked to the SARS antibody)

Edited March 14, 2020 by kold weather

[Summer Sun]

F1 season now expected to start at the end of May meaning the Dutch GP is also off

https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.2020-season-now-expected-to-start-at-end-of-may-say-formula-1-and-fia.2n6qLwDR90AcXuzVuu7lEa.html

 

[hammerb32]

5 Jet2 flights en route to Spain have turned around over France and are heading back to the UK, has Spain closed it's borders?

[philglossop]

Well, I'd say we're looking at a lockdown from the end of next week.  I've done all the prep I can via food and topped electric meter up very high with about 6 weeks worth,  sorted out parents.

 

 

[Spikecollie]

6 minutes ago, hammerb32 said:

5 Jet2 flights en route to Spain have turned around over France and are heading back to the UK, has Spain closed it's borders?

What's your source for this?

[Summer Sun]

 

[philglossop]

1 minute ago, Spikecollie said:

What's your source for this?

Flight radar ap. It does appear they've all returned to UK the Glasgow Malaga flight was over the Loire in France before returning.