COVID-19 Pandemic

[Zak M]

 

[kold weather]

6 minutes ago, emax said:

There just isnt the capacity to test everyone. Look at most countries, bar Iceland and maybe S Korea, most likely all their figures will be under reported due to lack of testing. It just isnt worth the extra waste of resources now. Say you find a cluster in a certain area, theres no guarantee that those people will go on to develop serious symptoms, and you've wasted all those resources. Now, it would be great to test everyone obviously, and in the early stages most definitely beneficial, but I would guess that they've decided the resource to benefit ratio now just isnt worth it.

Our max capacity is 10,000 (for reference, the USA only has 8,000 right now!!!!) but that is going to be hard to keep at that rate for a long period of time, so it makes sense to reserve most for hospitals. I'd maybe do a random 1500 tests still on people in the community just to see the underlying trends (eg % of the population sampled who test positive).

[nick sussex]

Just now, Snowycat said:

Very important post.  Why risk having the thread closed for good?  The thread has and continues to be such a valuable source of information for people.

It won’t be closed . We’re all adults and can cope with some criticism and different viewpoints .

[Summer Sun]

 

[Spikecollie]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

The last time I looked I think it was only Ariege that had avoided a case in France although that might have changed by now .

And you’re right it’s a damned thing !

It's just so awful, Nick. We had everything nearly sorted out. The house in the UK is ready to sell and the OH has done all the little bits and bobs that were needed. I have a CDI over here, exactly what I needed and it's a job that I love. Now we are faced with months of uncertainty.

Added to that, the OH is sick and took the day off work over there. I'm 99% sure it's just a normal cold but he got into a complete panic yesterday evening and it took an hour on the phone to calm everything down.

I#m not enjoying this.

Never mind, I'm getting on with the "immatriculation" of our UK car here in France and the OH's residency stuff. And I'm going to enjoy this sunny and warm weekend. Today was lovely but I missed it because I was working - I did get a good ball game with Mylo this afternoon and a run at sunset this evening. The sky was amazing - it's nice to focus on mindful things. That's what running and doglet activities do for me.

[Summer Sun]

MP Nadine Dorries says her mum, 84, has tested positive for Coronavirus.

 

[Stabilo19]

Just now, Summer Sun said:

MP Nadine Dorries says her mum, 84, has tested positive for Coronavirus.

 

That's awful news.

[mountain shadow]

All, if you have Netflix, there is a documentary series called 'Pandemic ' 

Only out this year. 

Watch it.

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

MP Nadine Dorries says her mum, 84, has tested positive for Coronavirus.

 

Ah no, she did say her mum was starting to cough when she was told she was positive. Definitely at higher risk age bracket, so hopefully she is ok, though even at that age, still a far better chance of survival than not.

Be ready to help the older generation everyone, now is the time we pay them back for alot of things they did during the war and post war era that has helped to keep this country where it is. Obviously follow advice though and if you suspect your ill, make sure you don't expose your illness to them.

[feb1991blizzard]

20 minutes ago, Spikecollie said:

London Maraton postponed until October. Keep training any of you who were doing it...

But outdoors, not in Gymnasiums on treadmills.

[Spikecollie]

6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

MP Nadine Dorries says her mum, 84, has tested positive for Coronavirus.

 

That is awful. No time for political divisions - a sick Mum is a sick Mum - if Mrs Dorries is still in self isolation, it must be so horrible to know that Mum is sick and that she can't help...

[summer blizzard]

23 minutes ago, Summerstorm said:

Would guess there are talking about MERS-CoV maybe? Never mind the others beat me to it. Said to have been transmitted to humans through camels. 

Mers is not all that infectious apparently however Covid-19 and how it compares to other things does raise the point of why we don't have government agencies culling these small things through the likes of quarantine. We could get rid of a lot of things if we took then this seriously.

[kold weather]

Todays new cases are currently around 9500 cases. 10 days ago it was 2,000!

Also, this sadly, active cases also now at a record high after going down for a while with China's lockdown, it has in the last 10 days been steadily increasing again as recoveries aren't keeping up anymore.

[Zak M]

 

[Summerstorm]

14 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Mers is not all that infectious apparently however Covid-19 and how it compares to other things does raise the point of why we don't have government agencies culling these small things through the likes of quarantine. We could get rid of a lot of things if we took then this seriously.

Yep agree with you don't think I'm the only one on here that is a bit uncertain about the tactics being employed by the government. At the very least they could ban public gatherings amongst other things without too much of a stink being kicked up by the general public.

I know some people on the forum agree with the current government strategy but I will freely admit I don't like it at all, if they want to experiment with herd immunity they should get a small group of people together in an isolated environment to minimise the amount of deaths from this pandemic and if that works well then maybe roll the dice.

Edited March 13, 2020 by Summerstorm

[BeazleyBlizzard]

Donald Trump declares national emergency.

[Summer Sun]

Breaking: National emergency declared in the USA

[Snowy L]

30 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Our max capacity is 10,000 (for reference, the USA only has 8,000 right now!!!!) but that is going to be hard to keep at that rate for a long period of time, so it makes sense to reserve most for hospitals. I'd maybe do a random 1500 tests still on people in the community just to see the underlying trends (eg % of the population sampled who test positive).

That's the right thing to do but I do wish it was accompanied by a good evidence based explaination on the real amount of cases, because the fatality rate of confirmed cases is about to get very ugly.

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, Snowy L said:

That's the right thing to do but I do wish it was accompanied by a good evidence based explaination on the real amount of cases, because the fatality rate of confirmed cases is about to get very ugly.

Oh for sure, we about to probably see hundreds die a day like in Italy, if it ramps up too rapidly that may even spill into thousands at the peak.

Remember people, the world and the UK are still at the bottom of the bell curve in theory!

[Snipper]

2 minutes ago, Summerstorm said:

Yep agree with you don't think I'm the only one on here that is a bit uncertain about the tactics being employed by the government. At the very least they could ban public gatherings amongst other things without too much of a stink being kicked up by the general public. I know some people on the forum agree with the current government strategy but I will freely admit I don't like it at all, if they want to experiment with herd immunity they should get a small group of people together in an isolated environment to minimise the amount of deaths from this pandemic and if that works well then maybe roll the dice.

People have the opportunity do do what they like.  Would you go to a gathering if you thought it was unsafe? More fool you if you do. It is possibly the government is assuming everyone has common sense and not sheep who only act if told to do so. They have indicated they will take more draconian action if they need to .

[feb1991blizzard]

54 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I think the last one was locked because it got too long . And I think the threads been great. It’s impossible to avoid the odd skirmish as we’re debating an emotive subject!

 

Yes Nick, if a debate about whether a GFS op is too flat or an ECM op is too amplified gets heated on this site, then sure as hell its gonna get heated when stupid amounts of people are dying.

Edited March 13, 2020 by feb1991blizzard

[kold weather]

6 minutes ago, Summerstorm said:

Yep agree with you don't think I'm the only one on here that is a bit uncertain about the tactics being employed by the government. At the very least they could ban public gatherings amongst other things without too much of a stink being kicked up by the general public.

Agreed, I think banning events is a logical step. It may not make much difference...but that maybe enough of a difference to save hundreds of lives a month or two down the line. Its that very clinical thinking that I think sometimes is these sorts of peoples downfall, they get too embedded into the stats to see how the real world mind actually works.

I'm certainly am uncertain about aspects of this, the events being the main one. I do however totally get the logic of it.

Ultimately, we are fighting a different battle to the rest of the world.

Thr world is trying to shut it down and stop it, we are merely trying to delay it. History will show whether it is even possible to shut it down. China has on the face of it managed this, but there will probably more waves of this thing coming through in the future ,especially past summer.

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, Snipper said:

People have the opportunity do do what they like.  Would you go to a gathering if you thought it was unsafe? More fool you if you do. It is possibly the government is assuming everyone has common sense and not sheep who only act if told to do so. They have indicated they will take more draconian action if they need to .

I suppose the question is in that case why not just do it anyway and ban the events? People I'm sure will understand its for the greater good even if they do kick off a stink initially. 

Is this is a dangerous attempt to play the behaviour of the country. I'm sure 90% will listen, but its that 10% that is going to so to quote "spoil it for the rest of us" (Sorry, used that line a few too many times in the past!)

[BeazleyBlizzard]

Drive thru testing clinics in america with results taking 24-36 hours. Google being a massive player with regards to that.

[kold weather]

It is worth noting that Germany is following our idea by the way, here is a translation of their strategry:

"We don't live on an island in Germany. We cannot isolate ourselves here. In theory, what will happen is what has now happened in China. They shut everything down, put a stop to life, so to speak, took really drastic measures - and that actually proved successful. That's good news. But if you loosen the measures there again, you will observe that I would speculate that the number of cases will increase again, because the virus is not gone, it is still there. In Germany it will always come from outside, even if we can completely interrupt it inside, it will come in again and again. We can't close our borders forever now, that's impossible."

Sounds very similar to ours, in other words, its coming no matter what you do, its just do we get it now, or drag it over the next year.

The BIG question though is will we lose more lives this way or not? Because there are the assumptions that countries can't just keep locking down until a vaccine comes along...i'm not so sure they won't. First time is the hardest anyway, once it becomes a norm, they may find it quite alot easy to do a 2nd time.

Edited March 13, 2020 by kold weather