COVID-19 Pandemic

[Dami]

19 minutes ago, Tilly said:

Afternoon everyone,

I can’t help but feel really angry today. I don’t want to be part of this ‘herd immunity’ experiment. Like they said yesterday, lots of people are going to die, people we know and love. I can’t help but feel we should be doing more to stop the spread or make better attempts to slow it rather than all going blindly into this gamble of a plan that the ‘experts’ have come up with. Our our experts more expert than anyone else in the world? As it seems we are on our own with our Current response to Corona. 
 

I’ve been reading the WHO daily releases and in pretty much every one they’ve mentioned their concern at the lack of certain countries response. They haven’t pointed a finger but I’ve felt since day 1 this was aimed at the UK. Take this for instance 

”despite our frequent warnings, we are deeply concerned that some countries are not approaching this threat with the level of political commitment needed to control it. 

Let me be clear: describing this as a pandemic does not mean that countries should give up. The idea that countries should shift from containment to mitigation is wrong and dangerous”

 

from here 

WHO Director-General's opening remarks at the Mission briefing on COVID-19 - 12 March 2020

WWW.WHO.INT

 

I know we all have choices and can make decisions for ourselves, like to stay away from large public gatherings. We don’t need a government ban for that. I think we need some iron fist ruling though to wake people up and make people realise this is no joke and to not be complacent. This is no cold, this is no flu. This is new and it can be deadly, not to all but certainly to someone you know it could and most likely will be. And at the very least, we need better advice than ‘avoid cruises’ for the elderly and such. We Need good planning in place for things like school closures and child care. it’s easier and better to do when things are calm rather than waiting until everything is totally out of control and desperate. 
 

I don’t accept that we should just suck it up and catch it to create ‘herd immunity’ which they don’t even know will work. It Completely goes against my instinct to want to protect and preserve life, not just of my loved ones but of everyone. 
 

I had someone say to me today that they think social media has blown this all out of proportion, so I asked if they thought what has happened in China and is happening in Italy, Iran etc and spreading across Europe... is that blown out of proportion? Is it a lie? Is that not real? And they said “I don’t know” People aren’t ready to believe what is right on our doorstep. 
 

I honestly don’t know what the answer is but it doesn’t feel right to sit and wait and see what happens. It’s all very reactive rather than proactive. I’m doing everything I can to protect myself and in doing so protect my family and those I may come into contact with. I’ve chosen to avoid a concert at Wembley tonight because I feel it’s too risky. I’ve chosen to lose the money rather than sell the tickets because I feel like I would be putting other people in my place and therefore Putting them at risk. I know that would be their choice but still, it’s not up for debate for anyone now and I’m happy with that. 
 

It Sure feels like we’ve all been hung and left out to dry and I can’t get my head around it. Whatever happens though, I do accept that this is going to be grim and life changing for many. Sad times. 

 

My thoughts totally. Only the other day someone said to me they had just heard about Italy and were worried about a friend, and I had known about Italy for days before - so if people in this village wear flip flops in the rain because they don't look at a weather forecast, what's the odds they aren't even that aware? 

This government isn't making life at all easy. If any of us get the symptoms suggested  and therefore the whole family will need to stay at home - my daughter has already been off twice with a nasty virus/throat infection - am I going to have the school banging on my door with an educational welfare officer because of attendance?I'm Sorry you cannot escape politics.

Also I am not loving at all the idea that the best thing for us is to just 'hopefully get infected, get better and won't get it again' but some of you will die, sorry about that, attitude. 

No stiff upper lip here. I am scared and i think rightly so.

   

Edited March 13, 2020 by Dami

[Bristawl Si]

2 minutes ago, Dami said:

My thoughts totally. Only the other day someone said to me they had just heard about Italy and were worried about a friend, and I had known about Italy for days before - so if people in this village wear flip flops in the rain because they don't look at a weather forecast, what's the odds they aren't even that aware? 

This government isn't making life at all easy. If any of us get the symptoms suggested  and therefore the whole family will need to stay at home - my daughter has already been off twice with a nasty virus/throat infection - am I going to have the school banging on my door with an educational welfare officer because of attendance?I'm Sorry you cannot escape politics.

Also I am not loving at all the idea that the best thing for us is to just 'hopefully get infected, get better and won't get it again' but some you will die, sorry about that, attitude. 

No stiff upper lip here. I am scared and i think rightly so.

   

Listen to the science.

[kold weather]

7 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Let's say even just 20% get it. That's 15m people over the course of 60 days, 1.5m of which will need some sort of hospitalisation. That's about 200,000 in hospital per week, but that's assuming equal distribution, which it won't be. In the 3 worst weeks it will probably be 300-400,000 per week going into hospital.

Worth noting the entire capacity of the hospital system is around 100,000 people.

So we are going to have to seriously think about makeshift coronavirus hospitals over the peak of it.

That is scary, especially as serious and critical cases are taking a good 2-3 weeks to recover, if they do!

[Ryukai]

11 minutes ago, weirpig said:

When are the breakdown of locations released ? 

There isn't a specific time for that unfortunately, just have to keep an eye on this

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14

 

[kold weather]

5 minutes ago, swebby said:

Brings an entirely new dimension to political "glad handing"?

Trump must be getting very nervous now, he isn't a fan of the germs!

As said, its clearly more widespread in Brazil then they are letting on, probably similar to Russia and Turkey, both countries that have leaders who want to strong man things.

[Stabilo19]

2 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Listen to the science.

To be fair, and without meaning to bash the experts, the UK government policy on coronavirus is being directed by the "nudge" team consisting of psychologists and sociologists. Perhaps more virologists and epidemiologists need to be consulted.

[Bristawl Si]

Just now, Stabilo19 said:

To be fair, and without meaning to bash the experts, the UK government policy on coronavirus is being directed by the "nudge" team consisting of psychologists and sociologists. Perhaps more virologists and epidemiologists need to be consulted.

How do you know?

[weirpig]

2 minutes ago, Ryukai said:

There isn't a specific time for that unfortunately, just have to keep an eye on this

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14

 

Just seen 4 new cases in wolves   not sure of the rest 

[Snowy L]

3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Worth noting the entire capacity of the hospital system is around 100,000 people.

So we are going to have to seriously think about makeshift coronavirus hospitals over the peak of it.

That is scary, especially as serious and critical cases are taking a good 2-3 weeks to recover, if they do!

Hopefully what we have done is delay the peak until after several clinical trials for antivirals have concluded in April. Have to hope that at least 1 of them is successful.

[abruzzi spur]

Just now, Stabilo19 said:

To be fair, and without meaning to bash the experts, the UK government policy on coronavirus is being directed by the "nudge" team consisting of psychologists and sociologists. Perhaps more virologists and epidemiologists need to be consulted.

Have you got a link to substantiate that please as I'd like to understand it a bit better.

[Bristawl Si]

Sir Patrick Vallance FRS FMedSci FRCP is Government Chief Scientific Adviser (GCSA) and Head of the Government Science and Engineering (GSE) profession. His personal research was in the area of diseases of blood vessels and endothelial biology.

Patrick was President, R&D at GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) from 2012 until 2017. Prior to this, he was Senior Vice President, Medicines Discovery and Development. He joined the company in May 2006 as Head of Drug Discovery. He was a member of the GSK Board and the Corporate Executive Team. During his period as head of R&D over 14 new medicines were approved for use worldwide, for diseases ranging from cancer to asthma and HIV.

Prior to joining GSK, he was a clinical academic, Professor of Medicine and led the Division of Medicine at UCL. He has over 20 years’ experience of basic and clinical research, and was a consultant physician in the NHS. His research spanned from work on medicinal chemistry and structural biology, through to cellular work, studies in humans and use of large electronic health record databases.

He was elected to the Academy of Medical Sciences in 1999 and to the Royal Society in 2017. He was on the Board of the UK Office for Strategic Co-ordination of Health Research (OSCHR) from 2009 to 2016. He is an Honorary Fellow at UCL and holds honorary degrees from Imperial College London, Glasgow University, University of York and St George’s, University of London. He was a non-executive director and board member for UK Biobank and a non-executive board member for Genome Research Limited but stepped down in taking up the GCSA role.

[abruzzi spur]

With no apologies, I'm putting this up again.  Very helpful, particularly point 3:

 

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/mental-health-considerations.pdf?sfvrsn=6d3578af_2

[Summer Sun]

Callum Hudson-Odoi looks to have soon recovered from Coronavirus he first reported the symptoms on Monday morning

 

[Bristawl Si]

Chris Whitty is a physician and epidemiologist who works in public health, science policy and clinical medicine. Previously Professor of Public and International Health and now hororary professor at LSHTM. Currently Chief Medical Officer for England and chief medical adviser to the UK government, Chief Scientific Adviser Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) and head of the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR). Consultant NHS physician at UCLH and The Hospital for Tropical Diseases. Gresham Professor of Physic (the term for medicine when the post was created in 1597), Gresham College. Interim Government Chief Scientific Adviser, head of theGovernment Office for Science and head of the government science and engineering profession 2017-18. Chief Scientific Adviser, UK Department for International Development (DFID) 2009-2015. Worked as a clinician and in research in the UK, Africa and Asia. Postgraduate training in epidemiology (MSc LSHTM, DTM&H), economics (MBA, DipEcon), medical law (LLM). 

[Snipper]

6 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Trump must be getting very nervous now, he isn't a fan of the germs!

As said, its clearly more widespread in Brazil then they are letting on, probably similar to Russia and Turkey, both countries that have leaders who want to strong man things.

Perhaps he has a germ of an idea?

[Bristawl Si]

4 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

To be fair, and without meaning to bash the experts, the UK government policy on coronavirus is being directed by the "nudge" team consisting of psychologists and sociologists. Perhaps more virologists and epidemiologists need to be consulted.

See my posts above on the two main spokesmen we've seen over last few weeks.

Edited March 13, 2020 by Bristle boy

[MAF]

can i just say that any "medical" advice, no matter how harmlessly the person is giving it, should not be taken without seeking professional advice first.

[Tilly]

2 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

To be fair, and without meaning to bash the experts, the UK government policy on coronavirus is being directed by the "nudge" team consisting of psychologists and sociologists. Perhaps more virologists and epidemiologists need to be consulted.

This is what I thought. When they said about the science it was more to do with the science of human nature and our reactions to being in isolation, draconian measures and us getting too quickly tired of it rather than the science of the virus. Maybe I’m completely wrong but that’s the gist I got from it. 

[Snipper]

5 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

To be fair, and without meaning to bash the experts, the UK government policy on coronavirus is being directed by the "nudge" team consisting of psychologists and sociologists. Perhaps more virologists and epidemiologists need to be consulted.

They can’t all stand on the stage.

Edited March 13, 2020 by Snipper

[Stabilo19]

"David Solomon Halpern FAcSS is a British psychologist and civil servant, heading the Behavioural Insights Team spun out from the Cabinet Office."

 

There's plenty more information out there about this team and how they've had more and more influence in government in recent years. They're behavioural scientists, not virologists

[Gowon]

3 minutes ago, abruzzi spur said:

With no apologies, I'm putting this up again.  Very helpful, particularly point 3:

 

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/mental-health-considerations.pdf?sfvrsn=6d3578af_2

I'd add point 5 to that as well.

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

"David Solomon Halpern FAcSS is a British psychologist and civil servant, heading the Behavioural Insights Team spun out from the Cabinet Office."

 

There's plenty more information out there about this team and how they've had more and more influence in government in recent years. They're behavioural scientists, not virologists

So what? We'd be bloody daft were we to ignore the effects a pandemic might have regarding people's behaviour...?

[Snipper]

Just had another message from NHS 

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Below is a chart showing the daily test numbers and the proportion of confirmed infections since the start of March for the UK. 
In the first 3 days 1.5% of tests were positive. The last 3 days have been 6.5%, so increasing at 0.5% per day.  Should proportion of positive tests trend continue, and the number of tests increase to 10k per day in another week (as has been claimed), we'll be at 4k+ confirmed cases by March 19th and increasing by 1,000 per day then too.

[Snipper]

1 minute ago, General Cluster said:

So what? We'd be bloody daft were we to ignore the effects a pandemic might have regarding people's behaviour...?

A lot on here have behaviour issues one way or another.  Which one is right. No one probably.