COVID-19 Pandemic

[Methuselah]

1 hour ago, Snipper said:

Oh my story was Rupert Bear goes on his holidays.

My own favourite would be Noddy and Big Ears go to The Seaside: Big Ears's big toe gets pinched by a COVID-infected crab, and then, whilst they're sleeping, their tent gets blown apart by the downdraft from a mysterious black helicopter...?

[Guest Delete Me]

6 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

? 

Remdsivir is an anti viral drug used on ebola patients, has shown to have some effect on SARS-nCov

[kold weather]

6 minutes ago, swebby said:

The worry is not really about a second wave behaving differently to what we are currently experiencing. The worry is of something far more likely, this coming back next winter and coinciding with a flu epidemic/pandemic.

Yes and we are almost allowing to happen at a time of year that is beneficial to us, rather than waiting for the next surge of cases.

However I think there is literally 0 chance this doesn't overwhelm the health service, if even China struggled with something like 8,000 serious cases, we have no hope of keeping this under control when we get something like that amount of cases per week (and based on expected cases, that may well be a huge underselling)...Italy has struggled with just 1,000 extra people in serious condition!

Germany said they expect to run out of ICU bed by May...and they have multiple times the beds we have.

Edited March 13, 2020 by kold weather

[Guest Delete Me]

Official cases in IRAN:

• 11364 (+1289)
• Deaths: 514 (+85)

 

[Stabilo19]

1 minute ago, Paul Faulkner said:

Official cases in IRAN:

• 11364 (+1289)
• Deaths: 514 (+85)

 

Wondering how many cases & deaths Iran actually has now. Millions of infected and thousands dead?

[swebby]

From the beeb.

Quote

 

Not the time to close schools, says UK minister

Schools in England should remain open unless told otherwise by local public health officials, UK Education Secretary Gavin Williamson has told head teachers.

Speaking at a conference in Birmingham, he said the scientific advice would be kept under constant review and praised head teachers for providing calm leadership in the face of rising anxiety.

It comes after a leading association of head teachers called for clearer advice from the government over an exam season which is likely to overlap with the predicted peak in UK coronavirus cases,

Mr Williamson said details of how to manage exam season for teenagers are being discussed with the exam regulator Ofqual.

 

Mr Williamson would do well to check with colleges and schools about the demographics for exam invigilators.

If over 60's are expected to be isolating from the teenagers, teenagers being the group that we appear to want to be the majority of peak infections come May. I foresee a problem asking your average invigilator to walk in to a room of a hundred odd teenagers sitting a GCSE English exam in May?

[lawrenk]

1 hour ago, matty40s said:

I think Tottenhams players have been carrying this for months with their performances and the way they roll around in agony when going near to the opposition players.

A Mourinho excuse to top all others!

[Skullzrulerz]

 

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

 

So a rise of around 200, pretty much in the ballpark I was expecting earlier on (my range was 150-250) and keeps up with the Netherlands almost perfectly.

Should reach a 1,000 tomorrow.

Edited March 13, 2020 by kold weather

[Summer Sun]

208 new cases in the 24hrs to 9am today

[WillinGlossop]

3 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

So 208 today 

 

[Tilly]

Afternoon everyone,

I can’t help but feel really angry today. I don’t want to be part of this ‘herd immunity’ experiment. Like they said yesterday, lots of people are going to die, people we know and love. I can’t help but feel we should be doing more to stop the spread or make better attempts to slow it rather than all going blindly into this gamble of a plan that the ‘experts’ have come up with. Our our experts more expert than anyone else in the world? As it seems we are on our own with our Current response to Corona. 
 

I’ve been reading the WHO daily releases and in pretty much every one they’ve mentioned their concern at the lack of certain countries response. They haven’t pointed a finger but I’ve felt since day 1 this was aimed at the UK. Take this for instance 

”despite our frequent warnings, we are deeply concerned that some countries are not approaching this threat with the level of political commitment needed to control it. 

Let me be clear: describing this as a pandemic does not mean that countries should give up. The idea that countries should shift from containment to mitigation is wrong and dangerous”

 

from here 

WHO Director-General's opening remarks at the Mission briefing on COVID-19 - 12 March 2020

WWW.WHO.INT

 

I know we all have choices and can make decisions for ourselves, like to stay away from large public gatherings. We don’t need a government ban for that. I think we need some iron fist ruling though to wake people up and make people realise this is no joke and to not be complacent. This is no cold, this is no flu. This is new and it can be deadly, not to all but certainly to someone you know it could and most likely will be. And at the very least, we need better advice than ‘avoid cruises’ for the elderly and such. We Need good planning in place for things like school closures and child care. it’s easier and better to do when things are calm rather than waiting until everything is totally out of control and desperate. 
 

I don’t accept that we should just suck it up and catch it to create ‘herd immunity’ which they don’t even know will work. It Completely goes against my instinct to want to protect and preserve life, not just of my loved ones but of everyone. 
 

I had someone say to me today that they think social media has blown this all out of proportion, so I asked if they thought what has happened in China and is happening in Italy, Iran etc and spreading across Europe... is that blown out of proportion? Is it a lie? Is that not real? And they said “I don’t know” People aren’t ready to believe what is right on our doorstep. 
 

I honestly don’t know what the answer is but it doesn’t feel right to sit and wait and see what happens. It’s all very reactive rather than proactive. I’m doing everything I can to protect myself and in doing so protect my family and those I may come into contact with. I’ve chosen to avoid a concert at Wembley tonight because I feel it’s too risky. I’ve chosen to lose the money rather than sell the tickets because I feel like I would be putting other people in my place and therefore Putting them at risk. I know that would be their choice but still, it’s not up for debate for anyone now and I’m happy with that. 
 

It Sure feels like we’ve all been hung and left out to dry and I can’t get my head around it. Whatever happens though, I do accept that this is going to be grim and life changing for many. Sad times. 

 

[swebby]

44 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

Can we assume that since cases in the UK seem quite well spread out at the moment then we're going to see a massive surge way past Italy at some point? 

UK government has referred to the possibility of 1 in 5 of the work force being off during the peak as a worse case scenario. 

Extrapolating and spreading that number of cases out over an 8 week period, you are looking a daily new case rate of 10k a day, possibly up to 100k a day.

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, swebby said:

UK government has referred to the possibility of 1 in 5 of the work force being off during the peak as a worse case scenario. 

Extrapolating and spreading that number of cases out over an 8 week period, you are looking a daily new case rate of 10k a day, possibly up to 100k a day.

Yes, the briefing yesterday and the material afterward stated that 95% of the people who are going to catch it will get it within a 2 month period around the peak. Thats a huge number. Also remember it will be a bell curve, so it won't be spread out evenly. 

Whatever happens, the hospitals won't cope with those sorts of numbers coming in.

[Snowy L]

Brazil President Jair Bolsonaro has tested positive for coronavirus. He shook Trump's hand a few days ago... 

 

Remarkable that in a country with only 100 cases or so, the President has already got it. Just adds to the thinking that this disease is far more widespread than confirmed cases say.

[weirpig]

When are the breakdown of locations released ? 

[Man With Beard]

8 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

208 new cases in the 24hrs to 9am today

Thanks as ever Summer Sun

But of course we know this doesn't mean much anymore. They aren't testing unless you're in hospital, so the new cases will only be the bad ones. 

The key indicator now will surely be the death rate. If that's below 100 by the end of next week, I would see that as being not too bad considering. Very sad to be talking like this about something that hasn't even happened yet. 

[Snipper]

42 minutes ago, Azazel said:

Get hold of chloroquine if you can. It’s also being used in most hospitals to treat this. It’s available over the counter in the UK. It’s an old anti-malarial which is being repurposed because it shows good efficacy against Covid and previously SARS.

Im not a medical professional so don’t take my word for it, but do some research first.

I have got my hands on some by telling the pharmacist I’m off to Costa Rica. 
 

It’s brand name is Alvoclor.

Out of interest what are the instructions for taking it?  Take before you get infected and possibly have premature medication and risk of running out before you are actually at risk? Or take it once infected?

 What are the contra indications?

[Summer Sun]

Wales v Scotland Six Nations called off

[Guest Delete Me]

208 Jump echoeing the trend

[Snowy L]

6 minutes ago, swebby said:

UK government has referred to the possibility of 1 in 5 of the work force being off during the peak as a worse case scenario. 

Extrapolating and spreading that number of cases out over an 8 week period, you are looking a daily new case rate of 10k a day, possibly up to 100k a day.

Let's say even just 20% get it. That's 15m people over the course of 60 days, 1.5m of which will need some sort of hospitalisation. That's about 200,000 in hospital per week, but that's assuming equal distribution, which it won't be. In the 3 worst weeks it will probably be 300-400,000 per week going into hospital.

[Guest Delete Me]

[swebby]

3 minutes ago, Tilly said:

Afternoon everyone,

I can’t help but feel really angry today. I don’t want to be part of this ‘herd immunity’ experiment. Like they said yesterday, lots of people are going to die, people we know and love. I can’t help but feel we should be doing more to stop the spread or make better attempts to slow it rather than all going blindly into this gamble of a plan that the ‘experts’ have come up with. Our our experts more expert than anyone else in the world? As it seems we are on our own with our Current response to Corona. 
 

 

 

This is nothing more than speculation on my part, but the assumption that we are doing something different to rest of the world may not be as clear as some think.

Some countries do appear to have jumped very early with significant shut downs vs low case numbers.  That may be political, it may be panic, it may be because they have small populations so this is something that will work for them. 

The likes of France, Spain and Italy however are ahead of us on the epidemic curve, a position they do not want to be in if they want to land in a broad peak to arrive in May/June.  Note that some of their restrictions have been time limited, not indefinite.  It is entirely possible that the brakes are being applied now to their epidemics, to then be released as we head into summer.  China are introducing a phased return to work, but i do not for second expect to see zero infections there, i suspect they, like the UK, are trying to push their epidemic into the summer. 

[Stabilo19]

3007 tests and 208 positives: 6.9% positive rate.

So, the highest number of tests, the highest number of positives and the highest rate of positive detection to date. Not surprising or unexpected though.

[swebby]

8 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Brazil President Jair Bolsonaro has tested positive for coronavirus. He shook Trump's hand a few days ago... 

 

Remarkable that in a country with only 100 cases or so, the President has already got it. Just adds to the thinking that this disease is far more widespread than confirmed cases say.

Brings an entirely new dimension to political "glad handing"?