COVID-19 Pandemic

[Summer Sun]

Just now, Astral Goat Juice said:

First team player for Manchester City isolating too, after their relative tested positive. 

Benjamin Mendy according to the beeb last night

[Gowon]

Callum Hudson-Odoi's video 

Callum+Hudson-Odoi - Bing video

WWW.BING.COM

 

[Boro Snow]

7 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

That’s the message . Likely to lead to people taking less precautions and a more laissez faire attitude .

Its almost like the public’s duty now is to get the virus but hopefully not to kill too many older people along the way .

Soon there will be let’s get the virus parties ! 

Playing with peoples lives and handing a death sentence to a lot of old vunreable people is the way I am now seeing it now this should not be allowed to happen, I have grandparents in there 90s with underlying issues it's all very worrying

[Bristawl Si]

Sir Patrick Vallance remained calm and assured when explaining to the presenters on GMB this morn, despite Ben Shepherd trying to herd him down the "Are you sure the science and policy is right?" route.

[weirpig]

2 minutes ago, Astral Goat Juice said:

First team player for Manchester City isolating too, after their relative tested positive. 

Yep  Mendy

[Snipper]

I suppose you could liken it to an aeroplane where the engines have stopped. You can plummet straight to the ground or try and glide and have a bumpy landing. 

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, Boro Snow said:

Playing with peoples lives and handing a death sentence to a lot of old vunreable people is the way I am now seeing it now this should not be allowed to happen, I have grandparents in there 90s with underlying issues it's all very worrying

I think the idea is though that people like your grandparents need to basically think about isolating themselves from this point onwards, let the wave so to speak pass over them as best as possible. There will unfortunately be many deaths from this whatever tactic is employed.

It ultimately comes down to a question Nick asked on LBC today, which paraphrased said:

"Do you think its possible for a country to lockdown the virus"

Patrick Vallance answer was simply : Impossible.

Now China and sK would somewhat disagree with that, but even with China the vast majority of the community cases were limited to Wuhan region and China did something maybe only one other nation in the world could do and shut down utterly a major city...the only other one being the USA. So in the case of Italy, Patrick Vallance believes its going to get out there anyway, whether its not or in a 2nd wave.

Of course, I wouldn't put it past some maverik company to make a vaccine in the summer and push past human testing rapidly to get it out there before a 2nd wave, the financial benefits would be otherworldly if it could be done.

[Stabilo19]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The government message could easily see their hopes of managing the spread fall apart .

Because they still need people to take precautions otherwise you end up with such a big spike in cases that the NHS implodes .

NHS services collapsing for a period of time is inevitable. Even if we delay things away from the busy winter period, the covid-19 cases will eventually become overwhelming with the current strategy. The government must already know this.

[Sky Full]

Those countries who are 'locking down' now are doing so in the hope that they can eradicate the virus by preventing it from spreading.  They are NOT expecting to get 100% immunity in their populations.  Maybe not even 50% immunity.

Our own policy of delaying it until the summer, if successful, will mean that our peak occurs in May or June perhaps, by which time all the other countries who have acted to contain the virus now will be seeing a very much reduced incidence of new cases.

The question I can't answer is:  will those other countries want anyone from this country travelling to them in May and June given that we will be experiencing the maximum number of infections by then?  Will all air travel from the UK to these other countries be banned?  How will the world community stop infections being spread from parts of the world where the virus is still rampant to the countries who took early action to contain it?

We could see individual countries trying to isolate themselves from the rest of the world - what does this mean for international relations and trade for the next 12 months?

[kold weather]

6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The government message could easily see their hopes of managing the spread fall apart .

Because they still need people to take precautions otherwise you end up with such a big spike in cases that the NHS implodes .

The messaging is becoming quite disturbing  and is trying to de sensitize the public if the casualties mount up because of a policy decision .

Its also subtly suggesting people should get the virus as some public duty ! 

 

It really does need people to do their duty.

Someone should make a Kitchener poster with Boris saying "Wash you hands!" 

[Snipper]

3 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Sir Patrick Vallance remained calm and assured when explaining to the presenters on GMB this morn, despite Ben Shepherd trying to herd him down the "Are you sure the science and policy is right?" route.

I wonder what his real thoughts are about the presenters  trying to trip him up and or twist things.
 

What I like about the governments approach they seem to be pretty up front with what may happen in trying to plot a way through an unknown scenario. We need realism not throwaway comments. 

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

NHS services collapsing for a period of time is inevitable. Even if we delay things away from the busy winter period, the covid-19 cases will eventually become overwhelming with the current strategy. The government must already know this.

Yes, which is why they are trying yo get the peak into the summer to get rid of as many seasonal illness as possible. I think though if your going to get 50-60% of the population ill, and 95% comes over a 6 week period near the peak, that is going to lead to alot of doctors having to make horrible decisons about who has the best chance of life, and in that situation alot of very old and frail will die. If we even get a milder than expected form, that is still many hundreds of thousands needing hospital help at the same time, and the mean hospital stay time does seem to be fairly long once in there (the 1st Italian patient who was a young helathy man took 3 weeks).

We are probably going to have to have choices this country has not to do since 1940 when the battle of britain and blitz were bringing the war literally to our door.

Edited March 13, 2020 by kold weather

[abruzzi spur]

8 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Sir Patrick Vallance remained calm and assured when explaining to the presenters on GMB this morn, despite Ben Shepherd trying to herd him down the "Are you sure the science and policy is right?" route.

He’s impressive.  Was very good under tight questioning by Justin Webb on the Today programme on Radio 4.

[Astral Goat Juice]

2 minutes ago, Snipper said:

I wonder what his real thoughts are about the presenters  trying to trip him up and or twist things.
 

What I like about the governments approach they seem to be pretty up front with what may happen in trying to plot a way through an unknown scenario. We need realism not throwaway comments. 

Correct - I am firmly happy with the Governments response and reasoning. It's quite simple:

Oldies & People with Health Issues - Stay indoors

Youngies - Go about your daily life as normal, spread the virus, develop immunity.

It protects us from the second wave. 

[Summer Sun]

Breaking: France have suspended all professional football with immediate effect 'until further notice'

[Boro Snow]

4 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

Those countries who are 'locking down' now are doing so in the hope that they can eradicate the virus by preventing it from spreading.  They are NOT expecting to get 100% immunity in their populations.  Maybe not even 50% immunity.

Our own policy of delaying it until the summer, if successful, will mean that our peak occurs in May or June perhaps, by which time all the other countries who have acted to contain the virus now will be seeing a very much reduced incidence of new cases.

The question I can't answer is:  will those other countries want anyone from this country travelling to them in May and June given that we will be experiencing the maximum number of infections by then?  Will all air travel from the UK to these other countries be banned?  How will the world community stop infections being spread from parts of the world where the virus is still rampant to the countries who took early action to contain it?

We could see individual countries trying to isolate themselves from the rest of the world - what does this mean for international relations and trade for the next 12 months?

I was discussing that point this morning with the wife, we go on holiday in June to Disney land Paris, I just cannot see it happening if this country is still at its peak with this virus, 

[lawrenk]

8 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I think the theory is this will eventually go through at least a large chunk of at least Europes population no matter what, and by the end of 2021 the figures will probably look similar for all countries in terms of deaths. Except we will have done it in one fell swoop at a time that is somewhat of our choosing, whilst Europe will endure a damn tough winter with it whilst we will have a more milder 2nd go round due to a certain amount of inbuilt protection.

In other words, we will be the hare, and they will be the tortoise. 

Good summing up and I agree with this.

I think the uncomfortable truth is this is now going to infect a lot of people, and probably always was, regardless of what steps were taken.

I know many won’t agree with this but I’ve been extremely impressed so far with how the Government has handled things, making sure that the real experts are highly visible and explaining, in person, their rationale for the decisions that are being taken. To expect any Country to be fully in control of this is unrealistic but it feels as though we are doing pretty well up until now.

Ironically, I think some of our fears may be eased as more of the population get it and, hopefully, the overwhelming majority of us just experience relatively mild symptoms for a few days. Perhaps we can even start a new thread on here for those who get it and can then give a running update on how they’re feeling?

I should add that I don’t want in any to dismiss the tragic losses some poor families will experience before this is over.

[kold weather]

6 minutes ago, Astral Goat Juice said:

Correct - I am firmly happy with the Governments response and reasoning. It's quite simple:

Oldies & People with Health Issues - Stay indoors

Youngies - Go about your daily life as normal, spread the virus, develop immunity.

It protects us from the second wave. 

Of course the problem with it is its impossible to totally self isolate the old, a large number need personal care, or live in a community setting with frequent visitors. Its impossible to shut them out completely and keep them indoors.

Then there will be some who just won't listen either.

The logic is super simple, however the reality is a large number of them are still going to exposed, either through family links (as symptoms take a few days, and in that time you are infectious still), or in nursing homes/older people's residential places, or through workers who might help them, or when they have to buy food (because the reality is most will still go out and get their food), or when they collect their pension (as many still do that in person).

Then of course the worry is as we've seen with Italy, the young are still getting very sick and needing ICU help in many cases, its just they have a better rate of survival. So our health service is still going to collapse even with that approach unfortunately.

However, there really is no easy way out of this, what medicene we take is going to fundamentally change everyones life over the next 3-6 months. It time to do what we have been advised to do and when the time comes for harsher measures (and for a short period of time near the peak, expect things to lock down, for the very reason I've outlined above, to help the old) but we aren't there yet.

 

Edited March 13, 2020 by kold weather

[alexisj9]

11 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

NHS services collapsing for a period of time is inevitable. Even if we delay things away from the busy winter period, the covid-19 cases will eventually become overwhelming with the current strategy. The government must already know this.

They do hence how unhappy stressed and tier full Boris looked during his speech. 

[Sky Full]

3 minutes ago, Boro Snow said:

I was discussing that point this morning with the wife, we go on holiday in June to Disney land Paris, I just cannot see it happening if this country is still at its peak with this virus, 

This is why it makes no sense for the world to try and solve this crisis one country at a time - we HAVE to find a way to work together, to align our actions and agree on a universal policy which will prevent the virus running rampant in one place while being tackled in another.  

We are a global society and we cannot pretend that each country can work alone.  Some real good can come out of this if the human race at last realises that we are all one and the same when it comes to a threat to humanity as a whole.

[Man With Beard]

OK going to try to be more positive now. 

On the way to work on the train a moment ago, a man dressed in NHS uniform got off, probably to go to the local hospital. A man probably knowing he's walking towards danger as virus victims start to build up in hospitals. 

I just instinctively thought: What a hero. 

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

OK going to try to be more positive now. 

On the way to work on the train a moment ago, a man dressed in NHS uniform got off, probably to go to the local hospital. A man probably knowing he's walking towards danger as virus victims start to build up in hospitals. 

I just instinctively thought: What a hero. 

They are going to be lour soldiers in this battle against the virus. As I said, some of them are going to have to make literal life and death decisions in the upcoming 3-6 months.

[kold weather]

By the way, Spain is a disaster zone, a 2nd Italy.

Cases UP 633 overnight...and normally that figures goes up alot during the day!! Will have 1000 new cases in Spain at least.

[Azazel]

Not sure why my post has been deleted but whatever.

I totally get the theoretical science behind the approach however it is extremely maverick and experimental in comparison with the rest of the world.

The fact our government is actively allowing us all to be exposed to a deadly pathogen and some of you are willing to eat that up no questions asked us crazy to me.

It could be an absolute masterstroke, but at the end of the day it boils down to this:

The countries of the world have all taken a similar approach to tackling this thing apart from Donald Trump and Boris Johnson.

In the coming months, we’ll discover who was correct. The world, or Boris and Donald.

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

By the way, Spain is a disaster zone, a 2nd Italy.

Cases UP 633 overnight...and normally that figures goes up alot during the day!! Will have 1000 new cases in Spain at least.

To be honest  its getting pointless looking at these figures now.  As we know its much more higher then these results state