COVID-19 Pandemic

[nick sussex]

The excuse not to shut schools because of essential workers having to care for their kids suggests that it’s not possible to set up centers dedicated to those workers children . It’s not rocket science .

 

[Allseasons-Si]

8 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Unfortunately soon there maybe so many cases we won't be counting it by cases, but deaths instead, because with deaths we will still have a comparison to before those changes were made. For example if our cases only go up slowly but we get a lurch up in deaths, its probably a safe assumption that the cases in reality have also shot up.

I hope it doesn't come to that

what i am saying though is we no longer call 111 if the symptoms are mild so how are the numbers going to tally,that is what the gov't are saying,unless you are seriously ill you don't need to call 111

this tells me that i think the cases over the next few days won't come registered,just my thought.

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

The excuse not to shut schools because of essential workers having to care for their kids suggests that it’s not possible to set up centers dedicated to those workers children . It’s not rocket science .

 

Well then what about the easter holidays?? Or should that be cancelled as well?

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

I hope it doesn't come to that

what i am saying though is we no longer call 111 if the symptoms are mild so how are the numbers going to tally,that is what the gov't are saying,unless you are seriously ill you don't need to call 111

this tells me that i think the cases over the next few days won't come registered,just my thought.

If we are going to get 20-60% population infected, we won't have enough testing capacity to capture it all anyway so that is something to remember.

P -Dybala from Juventus also confirmed ill.

Edited March 12, 2020 by kold weather

[Snow Queen one]

If we close schools now where are the children going to be looked after?  Most parents work because they have to meaning that the grandparents will be asked to look after them.  These are exactly the people who fall into the high risk groups.

Especially as many people have delayed having kids till they are 30.

I am 57 and my daughter is a secondary school teacher.  I do not want her to go back to school at the end of March after her maternity leave ends.

I look after my grandkids when she is at work.

The numbers across the world show school children are not getting this virus badly.  BUT they can pass it onto grandparents who may have a bad reaction.

Damed if we do damed if we dont

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Well then what about the easter holidays?? Or should that be cancelled as well?

True has the government thought of that . They clearly can’t afford to lose key workers then .

[kold weather]

Just now, Snow Queen one said:

If we close schools now where are the children going to be looked after?  Most parents work because they have to meaning that the grandparents will be asked to look after them.  These are exactly the people who fall into the high risk groups.

 

Same question I asked Nick. What do we do about easter holidays?

I presume plenty of grandparents will have the their young ones over that period, and we will in theory be very much on the upward swing of the virus. Tough to call isn't it!

[Guest Delete Me]

If you compare daily case data between Italy and the UK then we should start to see similar jumps very very soon.

14 days ago (February 26th) Italy recorded 147 cases where as today we recorded 130

After that Italy looked like this: 185 >234>239>573>335>446>587>769>778>1247>1492>1797>977>2313

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

WWE Smackdown tomorrow night will have no live audience 

 

[Snow Queen one]

It is a very tough call but I think that the Easter holidays are when the government will extend school closures.  There is also the matter of the exams coming up in May and June.  What do the schools do about them?

[Guest Delete Me]

Symptom card which may be helpful to people

 

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, Snow Queen one said:

It is a very tough call but I think that the Easter holidays are when the government will extend school closures.  There is also the matter of the exams coming up in May and June.  What do the schools do about them?

Such a tough call, I'm not sure I have an answer. My best guess is that if an extended easter is needed, you simply lop off time from the June half term and if needed lop off time from the summer holidays. It won't be great but if that is what is required, so be it.

Premier league is to meet tomorrow morning, think some common sense is needed from these guys now, its spreading quicker and quicker.

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Same question I asked Nick. What do we do about easter holidays?

I presume plenty of grandparents will have the their young ones over that period, and we will in theory be very much on the upward swing of the virus. Tough to call isn't it!

If you lower transmission rates in school children then that will work through to families and by extension their grand parents .

 

[feb1991blizzard]

19 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Suspend the PL and finish the games in the summer.

Euro 2020 is likely to be postponed so that should give them time now .

Is this gonna be over by the summer though -  certainly not completely, another more drastic measure could be to postpone as long as necessary, start next season very late, then start the season after late as the 2022 world cup is in the winter - then gradually bring things back more towards schedule.

[kold weather]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Is this gonna be over by the summer though -  certainly not completely, another more drastic measure could be to postpone as long as necessary, start next season very late, then start the season after late as the 2022 world cup is in the winter - then gradually bring things back more towards schedule.

I agree, if it really drags on, we don't have to start the season till the winter if it comes to it, and the 2022 world cup does indeed give us a golden chance to actually do that.

Obviously if they do cancel this season, its going to become a legal mess I suspect because clubs could lose a lot of money.

I can't quite believe we are having to talk about this, three months ago if you would tell me the world would be turned upside down to such a degree I wouldn't have believe you, not even in the doomsdayers would have gone this far!

[nick sussex]

If you wait till the virus has exploded then when you eventually do shut schools you drop a much more infected group of kids onto their grandparents .

Because staff shortages will lead to that anyway.

By the time the Easter holidays have arrived it will be too late . 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, kold weather said:

I agree, if it really drags on, we don't have to start the season till the winter if it comes to it, and the 2022 world cup does indeed give us a golden chance to actually do that.

Obviously if they do cancel this season, its going to become a legal mess I suspect because clubs could lose a lot of money.

I can't quite believe we are having to talk about this, three months ago if you would tell me the world would be turned upside down to such a degree I wouldn't have believe you, not even in the doomsdayers would have gone this far!

I think i started to see it end January, once i fully understood how contagious it was, because i knew the world would be reactive not proactive like John Campbell says - because of not wanting to damage the economy.

[Wiltshire_snow_lover]

 

[Relativistic]

38 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I think these cases popping up everywhere and in all walks of life suggest that any reporting of confirmed cases is vastly under reporting those .

...

The comfortable thing to take away from this, though, is that it suggests the true mortality rate is actually much lower than is being reported...?

[Summer Sun]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Is this gonna be over by the summer though -  certainly not completely, another more drastic measure could be to postpone as long as necessary, start next season very late, then start the season after late as the 2022 world cup is in the winter - then gradually bring things back more towards schedule.

If people only get this once then by the summer things should be starting to improve by then.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

If people only get this once then by the summer things should be starting to improve by then.

Don't know Gav, i doubt whether everybody will have had it by then, these projections of 70% of people to get it could be spaced out over a year, even that doesn't allow for mutations and people getting a mutated version a second time - cojecture that second bit though of course.

[Bristawl Si]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

If people only get this once then by the summer things should be starting to improve by then.

As it's a coronavirus surely it'll reappear come the late Autumn, like influenza?

[nick sussex]

5 minutes ago, Relativistic said:

The comfortable thing to take away from this, though, is that it suggests the true mortality rate is actually much lower than is being reported...?

Yes that would be the positive thing. But of course you need to do enough to see where you might get a sudden cluster of cases.

[kold weather]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Don't know Gav, i doubt whether everybody will have had it by then, these projections of 70% of people to get it could be spaced out over a year, even that doesn't allow for mutations and people getting a mutated version a second time - cojecture that second bit though of course.

I read a message earlier which said they expect 95% of the cases to come over a 2-3 month period, so your looking at possibly 30+ million cases occurring within that time period.

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, Bristle boy said:

As it's a coronavirus surely it'll reappear come the late Autumn, like influenza?

I think thats the fear, and partly why the government here are somewhat prepared to let the working population cop it so to speak and to resist too harshly the virus. Other places that went into lockdown are very much at risk of a 2nd wave and they will be very susceptible , whilst in theory we will have a lower risk. No guarantee of course, but history suggests its quite likely.