COVID-19 Pandemic

[The PIT]

4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

What been very interesting is to see how Germany and France have gone up be nearly identical amounts every day, there is never that many cases between them! 

Except Germany has very few deaths 5 compared to 48. Looks like Germany has a very good health service or they putting deaths down to other under lying causes.

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

President Macron says schools and universities across France will be closed from Monday

So just Germany and UK against the rest of Europe in terms of this tactic, going to be real interesting to see how it ends up. I think once the pandemic really hits home, there won't be the staffing to keep schools open anyway and by that point you may as well close them all down anyway during the peak.

[swebby]

14 minutes ago, Hirudine said:

Due to partner's symptoms (fever, dry cough, aches, etc) we're going to have to self isolate for 7 days. Unfortunately, as our flat is small, it's not possible to isolate him properly from me, and tbh, it's likely I've already been exposed whilst he was asymptomatic.

When I checked 111 online earlier, he wasn't eligible to be tested. I'm sure there's a lot of people in a similar situation, so those confirmed cases really are just the tip of the iceberg, but I will check again at some point to see if the 111 website changes, given the new protocols announced.

Best wishes and stay safe.

[Bristawl Si]

25 minutes ago, bobbarley said:

Not convinced this would be followed if an election was round the corner.

 

Well, it isnt. In fact, it is prob 4 years away, at least. Therefore, your statement is 100% irrelevant.

[markyo]

38 minutes ago, Donegal said:

We simply do not have enough Icu units to wait until it reaches near peak. Keep it as low as possible for as long as possible that way the hospitals can give everyone the best chance and not choose who lives and dies like Italian doctors are having to do. Anyway it's not a total shut down it's only schools/child care. It's sensible and the correct decision. 

I really hope i'm wrong but the stats aren't looking good. On this one in my view the Irish have got it very wrong,but only time will tell. I would be so happy if i was proved wrong but somehow i can't see it.

[nick sussex]

All French schools and universities to shut on Monday .

Essential workers needed to combat the virus spread will still be able to access childcare with special centres set up . This is an excellent idea and means doctors , nurses etc won’t have to take time off to look after their children .

And French experts think children are transmitting the virus in high quantities and that’s why Macron has come to the decision to shut education establishments.

[Snipper]

8 minutes ago, snefnug said:

I think each country is learning from China, and other countries, the data coming out, lots of other factors.  It seems that all the involved scientists are sharing data re the virus to try and come up with theories, etc, if not solutions.  So whatever we think, many many people, ideologically/politically/culturally different and/or opposed are working together.  We can recommend  as much as we like, there are some extremely valuable and knowledge able posters on here, guess we should heed their words.

It is nice being told of the up front appraisals and plan with a willingness that action will be taken if it does not work out as expected.  How many countries are doing that?

[The PIT]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

And French experts think children are transmitting the virus in high quantities and that’s why Macron has come to the decision to shut education establishments.

If that's the case and can be proven it makes Johnson decision today look very poor.

[Bristawl Si]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

All French schools and universities to shut on Monday .

Essential workers needed to combat the virus spread will still be able to access childcare with special centres set up . This is an excellent idea and means doctors , nurses etc won’t have to take time off to look after their children .

And French experts think children are transmitting the virus in high quantities and that’s why Macron has come to the decision to shut education establishments.

Nick, will French parents actually home isolate the children even if they are showing no signs of illness? I'm damn sure that here in UK kids would be visiting the cinema, shopping malls, softplays, etc

[cyclonic happiness]

OK, I retract my previous comments.

Boris has suddenly been thrust into the worst 2 crisis in living history, no matter what political persuasion we are, no matter how much back seat driving we think we can do, 'he' is at the head of the worst crisis since WW2 (and i'm sure you cannot deny that).

Yes he looks tired, yes he is not able to make head nor tail of this crisis...but who is?

I'm Labour, and have always been so, but at this time of crisis, there is no political party, just mankind.....we should try to support him and help him make the choose which are right for this nation.

Beggar Brexit.....beggar elections...beggar parties.    He has the hardest job on earth 

[Bristawl Si]

1 minute ago, The PIT said:

If that's the case and can be proven it makes Johnson decision today look very poor.

Why?

[kold weather]

6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

 

And French experts think children are transmitting the virus in high quantities and that’s why Macron has come to the decision to shut education establishments.

That is hugely interesting. Our experts agree with that idea, but have decided that to send them home will mean they will spend time with the older generation and therefore put them at more risk, and that is exactly what we are trying to avoid. I have to say there is a lot of logic behind that idea.

I'm guessing that is where that behavioural modelling is coming into play again.

Edited March 12, 2020 by kold weather

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Nick, will French parents actually home isolate the children even if they are showing no signs of illness? I'm damn sure that here in UK kids would be visiting the cinema, shopping malls, softplays, etc

Well then we will have to take it out of their hands and that they can't

[Summer Sun]

Cases per 100,000 Iceland is top with the UK towards the bottom

 

[Bristawl Si]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Well then we will have to take it out of their hands and that they can't

Best of luck on that one

[feb1991blizzard]

Great -  Full programme of championship games go ahead saturday.

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, Bristle boy said:

Nick, will French parents actually home isolate the children even if they are showing no signs of illness? I'm damn sure that here in UK kids would be visiting the cinema, shopping malls, softplays, etc

Not sure about that ! 

But Macrons message really pushed that everyone has a responsibility.

And he said people had to think of we and not I. 

The daycare centres for those on the front line is surely something the U.K. could do if they decided to shut schools. 

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Bristle boy said:

Best of luck on that one

You don't need luck, you need a chinese style police force to implement it.

[Relativistic]

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

That is hugely interesting. Our experts agree with that idea, but have decided that to send them home will mean they will spend time with the older generation and therefore put them at more risk, and that is exactly what we are trying to avoid. I have to say there is a lot of logic behind that idea.

I'm guessing that is where that behavioural modelling is coming into play again.

Seems obvious to me. Keep all the children, who are seemingly ultra-low-risk, in school and away from higher-risk groups.

[kold weather]

Just now, Summer Sun said:

Cases per 100,000 Iceland is top with the UK towards the bottom

 

As the expert said today, looks like we probably are missing a decent number of cases, the curve isn't drastically off where it should be, just a fair bit too low which suggests there is not enough testing going on.

[Bristawl Si]

Just now, nick sussex said:

Not sure about that ! 

But Macrons message really pushed that everyone has a responsibility.

And he said people had to think of we and not I. 

The daycare centres for those on the front line is surely something the U.K. could do if they decided to shut schools. 

Thing is Nick, as i posted earlier today, if Brit school kids were locked out of school before Easter break it would be high risk grandparents, in a lot of cases, who would have daytime care. Recipe for disaster.

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, Relativistic said:

Seems obvious to me. Keep all the children, who are seemingly ultra-low-risk, in school and away from higher-risk groups.

In reality if we do get the numbers we are expecting at peak, the school system will collapse due to lack of staff anyway and the schools will close anyway at this point (this often happens during snow days for example), and I think based on what they were saying, they are aware of that being a possibility, hence the constant reviewing each time they mentioned schools.

Of course, this is all in theory!

Edited March 12, 2020 by kold weather

[Captain Shortwave]

A very risky strategy but I do understand the arguments. But I would perceive that given this virus is still a relative unknown, this route does seem to be run on a lot of assumptions given the behaviour of the virus. Of course the experts would know a lot more than us so maybe they think certain outcomes will not occur.

obviously the biggest risk to herd immunity is if the virus mutates in time and make natural immunity worthless. Of course mutation can lead to other effects like reducing the severity of the illness.

The other risk is that we are potentially so behind of physical information that the numbers will skyrocket to a point the NHS falls apart. 
Other countries are taking a course of trying to quash the number of infections immediately, probably hoping that the risk of infection will fall as we reach summer and that an effective treatment or vaccine can be made. The risk being that the virus is not affected by by warmer temperatures and as such you would need to totally eradicate the virus because lockdown can only to used for so long, it also requires unbelievable levels of self control from every citizen or you will continue to see potentially significant outbreaks.
There is probably not a right answer and many more arguments for and against both routes, but I thought I would get this off my chest.

Just to mention, I have no problem with Johnson’s approach to letting senior medical staff steer the course of this country. There is nothing wrong with looking human in a scenario like this.

 

[Bedknobs and Boomsticks]

I'm sad to say that people aren't getting it when they say that we could end up like Italy if we aren't careful. Even if we assume that tens of thousands are infected in Lombardy, that is still less than 1% of the population.

Assuming that it can't be contained, as everyone seems to think, then the virus will only die off when many tens of percent of the population have become infected (say 40 to 80%). Unless we want to go into full lock down mode for the next 12 to 18 months while a vaccine is sorted, we can pretty much guarantee that something far worse than Italy is already inevitable. 

To mix my metaphors, the debate is do we want to try to fight the rising tide in the hope of a life raft, or cut people adrift and get through it as quickly as possible. If Lombardy is already drowning under less than 1% infection, is there any point in dragging that situation out for many months until we hit herd immunity?

Who'd want to lead at times like this. We're effectively in wartime levels of descision making. 

And on a linked note about the lack of action at the moment, it's all very well talking about flattening the curve, but if you zoom out to take in the entire likely outbreak, the bit we are on right now already looks flat. 

None of this is what I expected to think, but I'm wavering between thinking that the response is genius or lunacy. Only time will tell.

[Gowon]

4 hours ago, Yarmy said:

The infection rate in Africa seems somewhat slower:

We don't know why so few covid-19 cases have been reported in Africa | New Scientist

WWW.NEWSCIENTIST.COM

---

Experts still don't know why so few coronavirus cases have been reported in Africa, despite the continent’s large population and China being its top trading partner

 

Is it wishful thinking to suppose that temperature might be a factor?

Maybe, but I don't remember seeing many cases further north like, Canada or Russia... etc?