COVID-19 Pandemic

[kold weather]

4 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Expert just on local news  as backed everything the pm as said   virus is different from country to country   different stages of virus in different countries  keeping schools open is right decision   other countries  are followers  not assessing the situation properly   seemed very confident 

 

We won't know for a few months yet, if they are right then the measures put in by South Korea and China won't work long term and they will have flareups again. If they don't and we go through a full population exposure with all the deaths that would entail, they are going to look utterly terrible in their call.

They obviously believe in their modelling, but we of all people know that just because you are confident in a model solution, doesn't mean it will be right in reality. 

[Snipper]

3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Oh for sure, I'm not saying he is thinking every second that I need to do this and that action to look good. But given he has studied Chruchill and written a book, he can't be unaware of the challenge that is ahead of him and how so very few people have had to deal with such a challenge like he is about to do, and that his idol is probably one of the few people in the UK modern history who can relate to that feeling.

I later edited that post by the way to say I think he did a decent job up there today, I've got no critisms with how he is trying to do this, I obviously do have some questions about whether the measures are going too slow, but thats mainly because I think the CMO is under-estimating how quickly this is about to spread, and Italy and Spain should give some real warning shots on that front. I don't think we have 10 weeks till the peak, out it that way, but that is ultimately my gut based on what I'm seeing and trends elsewhere, ultimately they are the experts for the reason and its great to see Johnson using them so well.

 

How many world leaders have come out saying families will lose loved ones.  That must be difficult to say?

[Spikecollie]

1 minute ago, Snipper said:

How many in France? Beginning to loose track

No update today, yet.

[kold weather]

Just now, Snipper said:

How many world leaders have come out saying families will lose loved ones.  That must be difficult to say?

Yes that part did resonate with me as well Snipper. I think he and the medical team are trying to as open as possible about it. It is hard when you see all the others doing different tactics, but this is the path that has been chosen, we walk it all together and do our best to make it work.

Plus, he is just being honest, world wide probably even in the super best case scenario, we are going to lose many many thousands more, and in the worst case, we may lose a fair portion of a whole generation.

[bobbarley]

Well the government are taking a high risk here. Totally different policy than most countries in the world. Not convinced this would be followed if an election was round the corner.

The problem is that other countries are trying to stop the spread instead of a managed spread, will it work.

At some stage the cases might be higher than most other countries as we approach our peak and they’ve just clamped down on their first one. Will they stop flights to the Uk then?

The hope is when other countries get a second peak in the autumn we’ll have herd immunity here and so overall have a lower death rate.

Who will be right, epidemiologists will be studying this for years to come

[Summer Sun]

All football in Ireland suspended until March 29th

Coronavirus: FAI postpones all football activity until March 29 | Football News | Sky Sports

WWW.SKYSPORTS.COM

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The Football Association of Ireland has announced the postponement of all football activity until March 29 due to coronavirus concerns.

 

Edited March 12, 2020 by Summer Sun

[nick sussex]

It looks like there are no real middle ground positions with how you respond to this virus .

Clearly China took drastic action , the peak came and went in a month  . They of course have a different culture and society willing to adhere to those restrictions.

Personally I’d rather have a short shock and not have the situation extended over months .

The thing is although to a degree events can get beyond your control as a government which path gives you more certainty of a good outcome .

And economic damage , telling people things are going to get steadily worse till late May is hardly going to help the economy .

 

[Summer Sun]

 

[weirpig]

One thing is  that while many people here think what are we doing    the rest  of europe are also thinking  have they   themselves  got it wrong     wonderful viewing  if it wasnt so serious 

Edited March 12, 2020 by weirpig

[The PIT]

Basically they have done nothing. The only new thing is if you get a cough which is persistent you self isolate. Most people won't go to work with a fever anyway. Only testing those in hospitals may reduce the headline rise for a while. The virus is also rising in hot places in the world. These maybe from people travelling from Europe or America who've caught the disease already but it could also include local transmission.

Will the gamble pay off. Time will tell but numbers in the other countries suggests not. Time will tell.

[Snipper]

8 minutes ago, bobbarley said:

Well the government are taking a high risk here. Totally different policy than most countries in the world. Not convinced this would be followed if an election was round the corner.

The problem is that other countries are trying to stop the spread instead of a managed spread, will it work.

At some stage the cases might be higher than most other countries as we approach our peak and they’ve just clamped down on their first one. Will they stop flights to the Uk then?

The hope is when other countries get a second peak in the autumn we’ll have herd immunity here and so overall have a lower death rate.

Who will be right, epidemiologists will be studying this for years to come

Will be right, wrong or somewhere in between. Quite nice UK making its own decisions.   

[Hirudine]

Due to partner's symptoms (fever, dry cough, aches, etc) we're going to have to self isolate for 7 days. Unfortunately, as our flat is small, it's not possible to isolate him properly from me, and tbh, it's likely I've already been exposed whilst he was asymptomatic.

When I checked 111 online earlier, he wasn't eligible to be tested. I'm sure there's a lot of people in a similar situation, so those confirmed cases really are just the tip of the iceberg, but I will check again at some point to see if the 111 website changes, given the new protocols announced.

[swebby]

39 minutes ago, Snipper said:

My take the medical experts know as much as they can at this stage and weren’t holding back on the grave situation. Nit pick away as much as you can but none of us on here know any more. Just speculation. 
 

Here speaks an old vulnerable person who is as sceptical about everything.

 

39 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I think they are trying to aim for June as a peak, but obviously being a curve, it will likely be getting progressively worse from early May and then hopefully easing up throughout July.

I suspect it will blow through quicker than that if they aren't going to bother to even attempt any sort of lockdown however.

 

People need to remember that the government is not going to be inflexibly wedded to a plan in which they enact measure A on day 3, B on on day 10 and so on. 

Scenarios will have been gamed in simulations, and they will adjust plans as events change to finesse the delay in the peak for May/June. I'm no fan of the PM or the current administration, but the approach thus far appears to be one of science and public health concern. I think people are viewing through the concept of parties behaving to inflexible political ideologies and so may naturally assume the same is happening here?

Are they potentially using a dangerous strategy with their approach to delay? Maybe, but it is a dangerous game anyway.  The one thing i would like to see them do more of is random testing.  They are working on an assumption of a 10-20 fold level of buttressing to get their timings to enact measures. More testing is more data, thus better informed in what way and when to act.

[Summer Sun]

 

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, swebby said:

 

Scenarios will have been gamed in simulations, and they will adjust plans as events change to finesse the delay in the peak for May/June. I'm no fan of the PM or the current administration, but the approach thus far appears to be one of science and public health concern. I think people are viewing through the concept of parties behaving to inflexible political ideologies and so may naturally assume the same is happening here?

Are they potentially using a dangerous strategy with their approach to delay? Maybe, but it is a dangerous game anyway.  The one thing i would like to see them do more of is random testing.  They are working on an assumption of a 10-20 fold level of buttressing to get their timings to enact measures. More testing is more data, thus better informed in what way and when to act.

100% agree with that last point, the more testing that can be done, the better. As they say in the model threads, junk data in, junk data out.

I'm also not a fan of the conservatives, from an ideology point of view, but people who are taking a party political stand at this point need to step back and realize the gravity of the situation. We all need to be steering this ship in the same direction. Frankly, after the division of Brexit, maybe this is the thing that will pull us all back together again, united behind a common cause.

[Ryukai]

1 hour ago, AWD said:

Just seen this doing the rounds on Social Media..... 

Think it's out of date now though. 

That's way out of proportion, they are comparing the number of deaths from a single disease of a single country with the death rates of other diseases for the entire world combined!

To make it more accurate they should have just taken the deaths for those other causes from China and only China to make a more accurate comparison.  

[The PIT]

8 minutes ago, weirpig said:

One thing is  that while many people here think what are we doing    the rest  of europe are also thinking  have they   themselves  got it wrong     wonderful viewing  if it wasnt so serious 

Well China got it wrong by doing nothing and trying to hide it. Expensive mistake. Italy and Iran didn't do much until to late and looked what happened.

Perhaps we will get lucky.

 

[swebby]

13 minutes ago, bobbarley said:

Well the government are taking a high risk here. Totally different policy than most countries in the world. Not convinced this would be followed if an election was round the corner.

The problem is that other countries are trying to stop the spread instead of a managed spread, will it work.

At some stage the cases might be higher than most other countries as we approach our peak and they’ve just clamped down on their first one. Will they stop flights to the Uk then?

The hope is when other countries get a second peak in the autumn we’ll have herd immunity here and so overall have a lower death rate.

Who will be right, epidemiologists will be studying this for years to come

A good observation.  Whatever one thinks about the result back in December and our electoral system, it may turn out that the call for Christmas election and a clear result has been very fortuitous.

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

What been very interesting is to see how Germany and France have gone up be nearly identical amounts every day, there is never that many cases between them! 

[snefnug]

17 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Well China got it wrong by doing nothing and trying to hide it. Expensive mistake. Italy and Iran didn't do much until to late and looked what happened.

Perhaps we will get lucky.

 

I think each country is learning from China, and other countries, the data coming out, lots of other factors.  It seems that all the involved scientists are sharing data re the virus to try and come up with theories, etc, if not solutions.  So whatever we think, many many people, ideologically/politically/culturally different and/or opposed are working together.  We can comment as much as we like, there are some extremely valuable and knowledge able posters on here, guess we should heed their words.

Edited March 12, 2020 by snefnug

[Bristawl Si]

50 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Currently 2000 wolves fans in Greece   many there because they couldn't cancel  flights  or wanted to still go to the city   currently there is a huge empty stadium  whilst thousands of fans are cramped inside crowded pubs    unreal 

Personal choice at end of the day. Shouldnt have gone in first place; i mean it's not like we werent aware of COVID-19 over last few weeks is it?! Footie fan numpties.

[The PIT]

Carers will love this advise especially if you're working.

"stay away from vulnerable individuals such as the elderly and those with underlying health conditions as much as possible."

Thank god I'm no care any more as that advise is pure cods wallop.

The better advise would be if your a carer take time of work.

[swebby]

33 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Closing Schools Saved Lives During the Spanish Flu. Can It Work for Coronavirus?

WWW.EDWEEK.ORG

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Closing American schools earlier and for a longer period of time blunted the impact of the Spanish Flu in 1918, according to researchers. But in 2020, shuttering schools for a prolonged period to prevent...

 

They do miss a very important difference in the current epidemic.  The fatality curve is not U-shaped with Covid-19, where as Spnish Flu took the young.  That alone is possibly our best weapon against Covid-19, the theory of herd immunity is a lot easier to use if it is only one demographic that has to be protected.

[cyclonic happiness]

1 hour ago, alexisj9 said:

Boris didn't even say that. 

it doesn't matter. all that he has done is say that, although 100s of millions are locked down....'we should be fine...for a while...I hope'.

I actually like Boris, for my sins, but i think he is way out of his depth, and so are his government.   

We've not faced anything like this since WW2, and according to wikipedia, that was 'only' 449,700 British deaths

Edited March 12, 2020 by cyclonic happiness

[Summer Sun]

President Macron says schools and universities across France will be closed from Monday