COVID-19 Pandemic

[Wiltshire_snow_lover]

 

[Jhonny147]

3 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

IMO, Boris has been the recipient of a lot of unjustified criticism, these past weeks?

Agreed. Being a leader must suck. I'm glad I'm not one

[kold weather]

7 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Fatality rate would be about 0.5% in that event, equivalent to severe strains of flu such as Hong Kong.

Thats been my own personal benchmark, when China got it under control I did think maybe I was overdoing it, but I feel if anything it might end up being worse, maybe not on its own call, but because of how we are having to handle such cases worldwide.

Just so people know, the Hong Kong pandemic, was a level 2 out of 5, the Swine flu was Level 1. Based on something between 0.5-1%, that would put us around level 3, maybe close to level 4. However we won;t really know until we get a really good grip on the cases that have occured and the deaths that actually occur.

0.5% sounds not too bad, BUT if we end up getting something like a billion people infected in the end, thats 5 million deaths world wide, which would make it the 3rd worst pandemic since 1900 (HIV/AIDS and Spanish Flu worse).

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, Wiltshire_snow_lover said:

 

True but that may not tell the story, it could be people not reporting or asking for tests, you can't physically force people to report symptoms.

[kold weather]

8 minutes ago, Wiltshire_snow_lover said:

 

This IMO is probably a rather large problem, this needs to be stepped up big time otherwise we will have no real idea of whether anything we are trying to do is actually working or not and we will be led by models, rather than actual data!!

[Guest Delete Me]

9 minutes ago, Wiltshire_snow_lover said:

 

Could mean that the number of people presenting symptoms and calling 111 has fallen.

They are all having a hot toddy instead.

[markyo]

Just now, Donegal said:

I disagree. Why wait until its rampant before trying to contain it. Look it at Italy. Better to be overly cautious than careless. 

Sorry,disagree,containment can only last for so long,human nature. The virus is there,it has nothing to do with being careless. It is a long war,not just a single battle,locking down schools for 2 weeks now may slow the spread but once those schools reopen,back to square one. You need to hit it near the peak to save lives not use up your populations stamina to early.

[weirpig]

Currently 2000 wolves fans in Greece   many there because they couldn't cancel  flights  or wanted to still go to the city   currently there is a huge empty stadium  whilst thousands of fans are cramped inside crowded pubs    unreal 

[feb1991blizzard]

The number of posts every few seconds on here tells the story, if you told me the post per minute count on this site would have been this high on March the 12th, i would have hoped it would have been in completely different circumstances - sad times.

[Weather-history]

Incredible how quick it developed in Italy

 

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, markyo said:

Sorry,disagree,containment can only last for so long,human nature. The virus is there,it has nothing to do with being careless. It is a long war,not just a single battle,locking down schools for 2 weeks now may slow the spread but once those schools reopen,back to square one. You need to hit it near the peak to save lives not use up your populations stamina to early.

It only works if you can basically brute force the population to obey for extended periods like China. 

This is an understanding that realistically that won't fly in this country, so a different approach is going to be attempted. I think they feel it is inevitable this sweep through the world. Germany is on the same page. Whilst Europe (the rest of it) may still be trying to contain it through a lockdown.

We will get a good idea of whether it is do able by how the daily cases respond over the next 2-3 weeks

[snefnug]

17 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

I'd say by his speech he's been crying. 

He’s probably exhausted.

Edited March 12, 2020 by snefnug

[kold weather]

7 minutes ago, snefnug said:

He’s probably exhausted.

High stakes for him personally, he is a man who wants to be remembered like his idol Churchill as leading the country to a great success. Sadly for him, his 'success' with Brexit is going to be over shadowed by this when the history books come out (when people think of 2020, they will think of corona, not Brexit I suspect). If he has success with this, then that will establish his leadership of the country as being one of the greater ones, such is the challenge.

Time for him to see if he can fill the shoes of a churchill, the challenge ahead probably is of comparable magnitude (though different, of course!)

By the way, I think he did a decent job today again.

Edited March 12, 2020 by kold weather

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Getting worrying beyond belief now. To think this could just be the start makes it even worse.

The end of this year could well be unimaginable. Money unfortunately gets in the way of the value of life. 

[kold weather]

9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The number of posts every few seconds on here tells the story, if you told me the post per minute count on this site would have been this high on March the 12th, i would have hoped it would have been in completely different circumstances - sad times.

This will probably be one of the biggest stories of many of our lives (at least the younger generation). A virus like this pops up once every 50 or so years, and even then doesn't normally spread quite as rapidly as this one has.

As I said I'm struggling to think of many larger world wide situations than this (obviously the world wars) that had such a disruptive effect on the whole worlds lives, social and economic.

[Snipper]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Some of it yes, if he has being crying it probably because he has now realised the magnitude of this event.

Give it a rest.  I expect there is considerable strain.  From postings on here some would have disappeared to the hills ages ago.

[snefnug]

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

High stakes for him personally, he is a man who wants to be remembered like his idol Churchill as leading the country to a great success. Sadly for him, his 'success' with Brexit is going to be over shadowed by this when the history books come out (when people think of 2020, they will think of corona, not Brexit I suspect). If he has success with this, then that will establish his leadership of the country as being one of the greater ones, such is the challenge.

Time for him to see if he can fill the shoes of a churchill, the challenge ahead probably is of comparable magnitude (though different, of course!)

I think at the moment, he is just trying to do what he can.  I think any party that was In power, any PM,would be doing what they can, without actually thinking about the ‘will I be seen  as a a great leader’.  Of course, history will judge him, but I think whether we agree or not with the decisions taken today, we give  him, the cabinet and parliament the benefit of the doubt.  

[weirpig]

Expert just on local news  as backed everything the pm as said   virus is different from country to country   different stages of virus in different countries  keeping schools open is right decision   other countries  are followers  not assessing the situation properly   seemed very confident 

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

16 minutes ago, markyo said:

Sorry,disagree,containment can only last for so long,human nature. The virus is there,it has nothing to do with being careless. It is a long war,not just a single battle,locking down schools for 2 weeks now may slow the spread but once those schools reopen,back to square one. You need to hit it near the peak to save lives not use up your populations stamina to early.

Closing Schools Saved Lives During the Spanish Flu. Can It Work for Coronavirus?

WWW.EDWEEK.ORG

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Closing American schools earlier and for a longer period of time blunted the impact of the Spanish Flu in 1918, according to researchers. But in 2020, shuttering schools for a prolonged period to prevent...

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Another thing to say is you cannot say Boris Johnson hasn't listened to professional advice, he has, his stance is the same as the medical team, i just disagree with them and think Cheltenham shouldn't have gone ahead and think bans on travel from other countries should have been in place while ago.

[Snipper]

10 minutes ago, kold weather said:

!)

By the way, I think he did a decent job today again.

So do I and I think the medical advisers did him proud.  

[kold weather]

Just now, snefnug said:

I think at the moment, he is just trying to do what he can.  I think any party that was In power, any PM,would be doing what they can, without actually thinking about the ‘will I be seen  as a a great leader’.  Of course, history will judge him, but I think whether we agree or not with the decisions taken today, we give  him, the cabinet and parliament the benefit of the doubt.  

Oh for sure, I'm not saying he is thinking every second that I need to do this and that action to look good. But given he has studied Chruchill and written a book, he can't be unaware of the challenge that is ahead of him and how so very few people have had to deal with such a challenge like he is about to do, and that his idol is probably one of the few people in the UK modern history who can relate to that feeling.

I later edited that post by the way to say I think he did a decent job up there today, I've got no critisms with how he is trying to do this, I obviously do have some questions about whether the measures are going too slow, but thats mainly because I think the CMO is under-estimating how quickly this is about to spread, and Italy and Spain should give some real warning shots on that front. I don't think we have 10 weeks till the peak, out it that way, but that is ultimately my gut based on what I'm seeing and trends elsewhere, ultimately they are the experts for the reason and its great to see Johnson using them so well.

 

[Evening thunder]

 

1 hour ago, Paul Faulkner said:

Pretty good graphical breakdown for Italy as of yesterday

If that median age of 65 is for all the confirmed cases, it suggests to me (as well as other things) that there are many more undetected (mostly mild) cases, but that also means the death rate is much lower and more inline with that reported from other countries?

 

[Spikecollie]

More than 100 new cases in the UK...

[Snipper]

Just now, Spikecollie said:

More than 100 new cases in the UK...

How many in France? Beginning to loose track