Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

COVID-19 Pandemic


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Hughenden Valley, Bucks.
  • Location: Hughenden Valley, Bucks.
22 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Breaking: Italy have reported 2,651 new cases and 189 new deaths

Total to 15,113 and 1,016 deaths

Omg

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, BornFromTheVoid said:

One of the things to consider - if the health system gets overwhelmed dealing with COVID-19 patients, it will be other patients that will suffer too. With only so much resources, beds and health professionals available, the "regular" illnesses that people suffer from will also produce higher mortality rates.

Something unlikely to be counted in the growing death toll.

Its OK we have banned over 70's from going on a cruise.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: London, UK
  • Weather Preferences: MCC/MCS Thunderstorms
  • Location: London, UK
5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

CMO: Overall mortality rate is forecast to be 1% or less. Higher in vulnerable groups. Lower in less vulnerable groups. 

In fact if 10,590 positive cases. 0.09% death rate. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Just now, BornFromTheVoid said:

One of the things to consider - if the health system gets overwhelmed dealing with COVID-19 patients, it will be other patients that will suffer too. With only so much resources, beds and health professionals available, the "regular" illnesses that people suffer from will also produce higher mortality rates.

Something unlikely to be counted in the growing death toll.

Yes, and it will make Covid-19 more deadly as well, some suggestions that is now happening in Italy as well with a higher mortality rate than you'd expect based on known cases.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
4 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

"80% of UK population could get coronavirus"

"1% or less fatality rate"

Did he just suggest 520,000 deaths in the UK?

He won't be far wrong, between 100-200 million world wide is my prediction, that's in the first wave, if any mutations are worse than predictions it could be the day after tomorrow scenario.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
4 minutes ago, Boro Snow said:

Of upto 80% of the population 

That would indicate a base reproduction number of at least 5. Estimates so far have ranged from 3-4 so worse case scenario plus error margins.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest Delete Me
Just now, BornFromTheVoid said:

One of the things to consider - if the health system gets overwhelmed dealing with COVID-19 patients, it will be other patients that will suffer too. With only so much resources, beds and health professionals available, the "regular" illnesses that people suffer from will also produce higher mortality rates.

Something unlikely to be counted in the growing death toll.

In China they stopped counting any deaths from Corona Virus whereby the patient had an underlying illness such as cancer, respiratory issues and cadiovascular problems

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
1 minute ago, Robbie Garrett said:

In fact if 10,590 positive cases. 0.09% death rate. 

Can't work it like that because quite a few of them won't have any symptoms yet as they are in the incubation stage, and that number as shown in Spain could easily be 2000-3000 people already.

And also he said 5-10,000, somewhere in the range, a ballpark figure, nothing more.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

"80% of UK population could get coronavirus"

"1% or less fatality rate"

Did he just suggest 520,000 deaths in the UK?

As a worst case modelled scenario, yes. But there's no time limit on that. 

 

In my view, this press conference seems to be very professional and honest. The usual people on here will never accept anything the government suggests is correct, and they will always take every comment made and turn it into a theoretical statistic of thousands of deaths per day. That will always happen, you cant help that. Maybe I'm just growing tired, but this thread does seem to be drifting from reported news and data, into just pure paranoia where every little comment or bit of data is turned into something to trash the government, or suggest that we're all going to die!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

Peak possibly 10 to 14 weeks away but could be longer

I hope he is right about that, because I think trends seen throughout Europe would suggest thats optimistic.

10 weeks from now is the back end of May, early June time. NOT in agreement with what was said by the Welsh CMO who said April/May. interesting!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

One key thing I noted only people in hospitals will be tested. France tried that and it hasn't worked. What it will do is reduce the figures.

I feel the Government is sticking it's head in ground and hoping to get lucky.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
7 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

"80% of UK population could get coronavirus"

"1% or less fatality rate"

Did he just suggest 520,000 deaths in the UK?

That's exactly the figure I arrived at in a post I made about a week ago.  I said it would like wiping out the population of Brighton, twice.  Not many reacted to it at the time, but it has more impact when announced by a government spokesperson....

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Guildford, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, dry & sunny
  • Location: Guildford, Surrey
1 minute ago, emax said:

Maybe I'm just growing tired, but this thread does seem to be drifting from reported news and data, into just pure paranoia where every little comment or bit of data is turned into something to trash the government, or suggest that we're all going to die!

This is a discussion, if people just want reported news then --> 

bbc_news_logo.png
WWW.BBC.CO.UK

Visit BBC News for up-to-the-minute news, breaking news, video, audio and feature stories. BBC News provides trusted World and UK news as well as local and regional perspectives. Also entertainment...

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

Just seen this doing the rounds on Social Media..... 

IMG_20200312_173857.thumb.jpg.cbd4d0fbae85a7f931150862a32477c4.jpg

Think it's out of date now though. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
12 minutes ago, Robbie Garrett said:

10,000 cases he said is likely.  So lot less likely than 3.3%

Yes, hopefully so. 

The 3.3% is confirmed figures however and so can be directly compared to the 5-15% that has been suggested for Wuhan and Lombardy.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
3 minutes ago, emax said:

As a worst case modelled scenario, yes. But there's no time limit on that. 

 

In my view, this press conference seems to be very professional and honest. The usual people on here will never accept anything the government suggests is correct, and they will always take every comment made and turn it into a theoretical statistic of thousands of deaths per day. That will always happen, you cant help that. Maybe I'm just growing tired, but this thread does seem to be drifting from reported news and data, into just pure paranoia where every little comment or bit of data is turned into something to trash the government, or suggest that we're all going to die!

I think based on what has been said before that 20% of that will be concurrent, we can safely assume that in the worst case modelled scenario, thousands would die every day. Thats just using what has already been suggested. Of course, I think that won't happen, but got to be ready for it.

I don't personally think the actions have gone nearly far enough, but then again I'm not getting paid to make these calls and clearly don't have the level of understanding to challenge it really, other than a gut feeling!

Edited by kold weather
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
2 minutes ago, AWD said:

Just seen this doing the rounds on Social Media..... 

IMG_20200312_173857.thumb.jpg.cbd4d0fbae85a7f931150862a32477c4.jpg

Think it's out of date now though. 

Point is still a good one though.

So yesterday had about 330 deaths, or roughly the same as what how many are killed by meningitis each day. You'd assume as cases mount up globally, that total per day will increase. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Motherwell
  • Weather Preferences: windy
  • Location: Motherwell

They need to be careful that in trying to delay it beyond the flu season that they don't delay it into the next season.May/June would be the best time to peak, if it's Sept/Oct when it starts getting colder again then it could have the same effect as if it had peaked now.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
5 minutes ago, The PIT said:

One key thing I noted only people in hospitals will be tested. France tried that and it hasn't worked. What it will do is reduce the figures.

I feel the Government is sticking it's head in ground and hoping to get lucky.

I think that more counts for when we are getting towards the peak and the numbers of people self isolating is too high to really deal with in that way (realistic of course)

What the CMO said is now they will test anyone who presents symptoms, regardless of whether they have been abroad. An acknowledgement that we have sustained community spread now.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
6 minutes ago, emax said:

As a worst case modelled scenario, yes. But there's no time limit on that.    In my view, this press conference seems to be very professional and honest. The usual people on here will never accept anything the government suggests is correct, and they will always take every comment made and turn it into a theoretical statistic of thousands of deaths per day. That will always happen, you cant help that. Maybe I'm just growing tired, but this thread does seem to be drifting from reported news and data, into just pure paranoia where every little comment or bit of data is turned into something to trash the government, or suggest that we're all going to die!

I haven't seen anyone suggesting that we are ALL going to die but 67,000,000 x 80% x 1% doesn't seem like an impossible number of fatalities given the stats we have already seen so it's not paranoia.  We have to discuss these issues in order to make decisions on how to try and avoid being one of the casualties.....

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
54 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

New government advice includes;

If you have a cough or high temperature, however mild, stay at home and do not leave your house for 7 days from when your symptoms started

ES7GF0oXQAAlG12.thumb.png.94404fcd442f14e1d106f7ff483a0393.png

Ok it seems they will not be testing everyone with symptoms just those who contact 111 if they need help. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Mid Essex
  • Location: Mid Essex

My take the medical experts know as much as they can at this stage and weren’t holding back on the grave situation. Nit pick away as much as you can but none of us on here know any more. Just speculation. 
 

Here speaks an old vulnerable person who is as sceptical about everything.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...