COVID-19 Pandemic

[kold weather]

Important point made just now - testing will be done purely on symptoms, not geographic location and where you have been.

Summer Sun, remember some of that will be delay in case identification, and frankly that is just guess work from them I suppose!

Edited March 12, 2020 by kold weather

[alexisj9]

28 minutes ago, Snipper said:

I am sorry to all those who love and care about sport but I don’t see the reason for such a need to gather together as a herd at any cost. 

I play two, off for two weeks cause of my opp, wondering if they'll still be playing when I'm back. I doubt it. Pool and darts. 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

If we do have 5,000 to 10,000 cases already that points to fact it is indeed very mild for the vast majority.

Or they are still waiting to get a reply from 111?

I'm hearing a lot of people saying the service is hopeless?

[Boro Snow]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

If we do have 5,000 to 10,000 cases already that points to fact it is indeed very mild for the vast majority.

Yes agree that fact is quite reassuring 

[Summer Sun]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Or they are still waiting to get a reply from 111?

I'm hearing a lot of people saying the service is hopeless?

111 has been pretty hopeless from day one in all honesty. Then they wonder why so many just go to A&E instead.

[cyclonic happiness]

34 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well no one else apart  from chris widgie seems to think so.

Basically.....'it's just a cold....nothing to see here'

[Stabilo19]

Just now, Summer Sun said:

If we do have 5,000 to 10,000 cases already that points to fact it is indeed very mild for the vast majority.

I thought we knew this already though. The severity of symptoms is not an issue for majority, but overwhelmed services leads to increased fatalities eventually. 

Also, models are not perfect. We need increased testing to confirm or deny these figures. But it sounds like testing outside of hospitals isn't a priority for the government. So we'll never knew the true # of cases.

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, Boro Snow said:

Yes agree that fact is quite reassuring 

Remember case identification delay.

For example, within 5 days Spain has gone from 400 to nearly 3000, same could quite easily happen here and I think that was an admission of just such the thing, along with some not being identified.

[Boro Snow]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Or they are still waiting to get a reply from 111?

I'm hearing a lot of people saying the service is hopeless?

My 9 year old son had a temperature of 38.5 on Tuesday and still has a bad cough I tried ringing 111 but was told over an hour wait so gave up

[swebby]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Breaking: Italy have reported 2,651 new cases and 189 new deaths

Total to 15,113 and 1,016 deaths

Something to extrapolate. 

UK government have already suggested that at peak, 1 in 5 could be off work. So we are looking at 20% of the populous, being ill, recovering or suspected of having it.  If we apply that to Italy, similar population to the UK, 10-12 million is a potential peak. That spread over a 28-56 day period is over 120,000 new cases a day!  

That epidemic curve they are showing in the press conference, they are still in the the flat pre-bell curve phase!

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Boro Snow said:

My 9 year old son had a temperature of 38.5 on Tuesday and still has a bad cough I tried ringing 111 but was told over an hour wait so gave up

Think the drive thru's are a much better idea TBH..

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, swebby said:

Something to extrapolate. 

UK government have already suggested that at peak, 1 in 5 could be off work. So we are looking at 20% of the populous, being ill, recovering or suspected of having it.  If we apply that to Italy, similar population to the UK, 10-12 million is a potential peak. That spread over a 28-56 day period is over 120,000 new cases a day!  

That epidemic curve they are showing in the press conference, they are still in the the flat pre-bell curve phase!

Thats actually quite a powerful point you have just made, wow!

So Italy may look bad, but according to what the govt meeting is saying, we really are just starting up. 120,000 cases is crazy!

[Zak M]

A very complex situation happening here, especially whether schools will be closed or not. Around 40-50% of nurses have children, so if school closes, where are the children going to go, because the nurses are doing their job.

[alexisj9]

29 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

New government advice includes;

If you have a cough or high temperature, however mild, stay at home and do not leave your house for 7 days from when your symptoms started

So only a cough, what about just fever with no cough, the coughing normally starts later, once things have worked down. 

[Robbie Garrett]

2 minutes ago, swebby said:

590 confirmed cases, 20 ICU = 3.3%. 

That is reassuring in comparison to figures that have been seen in Italy and China.

Assumption of buttressing of case figures to be 10 to 20 fold.  Really need to see Iceland's nationwide testing results to see how that stands up.

10,000 cases he said is likely.  So lot less likely than 3.3%

[Summer Sun]

CMO: Overall mortality rate is forecast to be 1% or less. Higher in vulnerable groups. Lower in less vulnerable groups. 

[booferking]

80% could get at worst case scenario they say.

[Boro Snow]

Just now, Summer Sun said:

CMO: Overall mortality rate is forecast to be 1% or less. Higher in vulnerable groups. Lower in less vulnerable groups. 

Of upto 80% of the population 

[Stabilo19]

"80% of UK population could get coronavirus"

"1% or less fatality rate"

Did he just suggest 520,000 deaths in the UK?

[swebby]

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Thats actually quite a powerful point you have just made, wow!

So Italy may look bad, but according to what the govt meeting is saying, we really are just starting up. 120,000 cases is crazy!

I think this is worse case scenario, i.e. without intervention.  What the CMO/CSO are currently describing are 25% reductions compounded, so that 20% of population may be reduced to 5%.  We will still be looking at tens of thousands a day however.

[Jhonny147]

31 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

He doesn't look well.

In my personal opinion Boris just looks tired out. He probably hasn't had a decent night's sleep for a while

[kold weather]

Just now, swebby said:

I think this is worse case scenario, i.e. without intervention.  What the CMO/CSO are currently describing are 25% reductions compounded, so that 20% of population may be reduced to 5%.  We will still be looking at tens of thousands a day however.

Yes, and given how much Italy is struggling with a fraction of that number, that is still rather worrying!

80% obviously is a worst case scenario as well, I'd be stunned if we get even close to that, even without all the measures suggested.

[Guest Delete Me]

Between 5,000 and 10,000 people infected and most having a hot toddy to sort themselves out 

Edited March 12, 2020 by Delete Me

[BornFromTheVoid]

One of the things to consider - if the health system gets overwhelmed dealing with COVID-19 patients, it will be other patients that will suffer too. With only so much resources, beds and health professionals available, the "regular" illnesses that people suffer from will also produce higher mortality rates.

Something unlikely to be counted in the growing death toll.

[kold weather]

4 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

"80% of UK population could get coronavirus"

"1% or less fatality rate"

Did he just suggest 520,000 deaths in the UK?

As a worst case 500,000 does sound like a estimate, however hopefully measures that are put in place will help to reduce that number.