Spring 2020 | Moans, Ramps & Chat

[jules216]

4 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

What happens in Eastern Europe can stay in Eastern Europe. It's bloomin' lovely here in the UK, and that's what counts!

For sure, I am not complaining either, it is very dry and sunny here in Slovakia,just a bit windy and cold nights. My point is about the reputable seasonal models like UKMO and EC that got winter forecast bang on will have gotten the spring forecast wrong for about half of the continent I mean really wrong, have a look at the actual anomalies against their maps. I wonder what has gone wrong with their supercomputer modeling that swayed their opinion so much for North East heat which is off the scale cold in reality

[reef]

Just now, jules216 said:

For sure, I am not complaining either, it is very dry and sunny here in Slovakia,just a bit windy and cold nights. My point is about the reputable seasonal models like UKMO and EC that got winter forecast bang on will have gotten the spring forecast wrong for about half of the continent I mean really wrong, have a look at the actual anomalies against their maps. I wonder what has gone wrong with their supercomputer modeling that swayed their opinion so much for North East heat which is off the scale cold in reality

I suspect the persistent blocking around the UK which has given us this exceptionally dry and sunny spring, but given eastern Europe a mostly cold one has caught them out.

[jules216]

27 minutes ago, reef said:

I suspect the persistent blocking around the UK which has given us this exceptionally dry and sunny spring, but given eastern Europe a mostly cold one has caught them out.

Both UKMO and EC are missing out on amplification which instead of mean SW wind brings NW to N winds to large parts of Europe, hence the really poor T2M outcome seen

[mb018538]

The set up that has repeatedly left the UK dry and sunny has come from the S/SE/E a fair amount (hence the record sunshine) which usually flips to leave Eastern Europe cold. I think we deserve it after the terrible winter and flooding!!

[Mr Frost]

1 hour ago, jules216 said:

What is happening since the 1st of April can not be described other then a major debacle for UKMO and EC seasonal modeling. Have a look at these images. The regions on their maps that were supposed to warmest against the mean are having nearly off the scale cold anomalies and believe it or not next 10 days will take this to another level - North East and East Central Europe. This has also been highlighted on Accuweather spring forecast map to be warm. This makes their BBQ summer debacle look like an accurate forecast compared to this one. I have never seen such an unanimous forecast go wrong in the same magnitude for a long time. Of course there is June still left to save these forecasts, but I dont think 40C in Tallin will happen to balance out over 5C inaccuracy. 

Looks like a major bust to me from looking through the information you posted.

Great post mate and always interesting to see/read about weather/forecasts throughout the world - we get loads of stuff posted in the Winter moans and ramps thread when heat records/lack of snowfall is involved in Europe and beyond. 

Cold Spring as you say in many of those parts above - record cold temperatures and snowfall depths recorded throughout Northern parts of Scandinavia this Spring - especially April and early May for example. (Some great pictures/reports from @Kirkcaldy Weather in the snow and ice thread. (Twitter, photos and videos)

Back to the UK and I agree with @Scorcher on his previous post - models/charts looked promising at one stage with regards to more of us joining in the warmth/sunshine fun! Unfortunately it has been a one/two day wonder for many of us further North and West! Looking forward to the rain and strong wind/gales up here tomorrow/Saturday. 

Hopefully June delivers more widespread Summery goods!

Would love to be experiencing some of this today!

 

Very jealous - enjoy! 

[summer blizzard]

16 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Can see the smoke plume from a major fire on an industrial estate to my west some miles way

 

What are the things going the other way in the sky at 2-4.

[mb018538]

Will this be summer? Will the traditional summer months continue in a similar vein, or flip back to unsettled?

Simply stunning 27c again today....and with Monday to Wednesday looking likely to be 25-27c too, then it’s magical. 

Edited May 21, 2020 by mb018538

[knocker]

2 hours ago, jules216 said:

What is happening since the 1st of April can not be described other then a major debacle for UKMO and EC seasonal modeling. Have a look at these images. The regions on their maps that were supposed to warmest against the mean are having nearly off the scale cold anomalies and believe it or not next 10 days will take this to another level - North East and East Central Europe. This has also been highlighted on Accuweather spring forecast map to be warm. This makes their BBQ summer debacle look like an accurate forecast compared to this one. I have never seen such an unanimous forecast go wrong in the same magnitude for a long time. Of course there is June still left to save these forecasts, but I dont think 40C in Tallin will happen to balance out over 5C inaccuracy. 

The EC seasonal for May wasn't outlandishly warm

 

[Weather Enthusiast91]

20 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Will this be summer? Will the traditional summer months continue in a similar vein, or flip back to unsettled?

Simply stunning 27c again today....and with Monday to Wednesday looking likely to be 25-27c too, then it’s magical. 

I have a feeling that this is indeed our summer. Whilst a warm and settled spring such as this one can lead to a summer being the same way (2003 for example), more often than not it seems to lead to a predominately unsettled one. 2007, 2011 and 2012 are just a few examples of this.

Edited May 21, 2020 by Weather Enthusiast91

[summer blizzard]

14 minutes ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

I have a feeling that this is indeed our summer. Whilst a warm and settled spring such as this one can lead to a summer being the same way (2003 for example), more often than not it seems to lead to a predominately unsettled one. 2007, 2011 and 2012 are just a few examples of this.

The correlation between spring and summer warmth is actually relatively weak. I actually recall somebody looking at this a few years ago and if anything the least weak correlation was cold winters being followed by cold summers.

Warm springs to cold summers is only a recent thing.

Granted I do expect a cooler than average Q3 personally.

[mb018538]

An impressive 27.5c at St James Park today. They said it wouldn’t be as hot as yesterday....they were right, but it’s not been far off!

[Mr Frost]

So another very dry Spring looms for many of us...

Looking back through Spring for each of the years 2011-2019 against the 1981-2010 average. (Spring Rainfall amount)

Above average (UK as a whole) Spring rainfall months between 2011-2019:

March = 4

April = 3

May = 4

Below average (UK as a whole) Spring rainfall months between 2011-2019:

March = 5

April = 6

May = 5

Edited May 21, 2020 by Mr Frost

[jules216]

36 minutes ago, knocker said:

The EC seasonal for May wasn't outlandishly warm

 

Yes eventualy the weeklies caught up on the idea, but basically last minute.Their update I think around 26th of April has indicated a sort of southerly plume for cental/eastern Europe that never arrived and it was pushed miles and miles away towards west,good for you in UK,outcome here is still dry and sunny,bit windy and very cold nights, I have recorded only 3 day with temperatures over 25C and only 3 nights above 10C so far this spring. That is very low indeed,,also tonight we have yellow allert for Tnim -1 to -4C. As bad as it gets for farming,need more moist and thundery episodes which only happened once so far this spring

[Sunny76]

8 hours ago, markyo said:

Hayfever(streaming eyes,lack of sleep),hot bedroom,hot cars,sweating working conditions,getting home from work at 2am,only 2 hrs of darkness before full daylight,windows closed you cook or windows open and endure the noise.....oh the joys of summer

And?

We get more unsettled and cloudy cool weather throughout the year. For once, I’m not suffering from having cold hands.

We have barely had 2-3 days of hot weather, and already people are whining.

The same folk who say ‘oh toughen up you fairy’ when I feel cold in temps below 16c.

I think it’s the warmsters turn to enjoy what we don’t get much of. The coldies can wait until late August.

[Arctic Hare]

12 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

So another very dry Spring looms for many of us...

Looking back through Spring for each of the years 2011-2019 against the 1981-2010 average. (Spring Rainfall amount)

UK as a whole months above average:

March = 4

April = 3

May = 4

UK as a whole months below average:

March = 5

April = 6

May = 5

Incredible contrast there for England between the extremely dry spring of 2011 and the average-to-wet spring of 2012. All the more so when you recall the appalling summer of 2012 that followed. (Gah. I wish I hadn't recalled it! Less severe flooding in these parts than in 2007, but otherwise by far the most miserable season, any season, of my entire life.)

[Downburst]

This was issued May 1, how's it working out? 

[qwertyK]

What's the record for warmest May night in the UK? Here in Essex and London I believe the tempreature over night appears to be 17-18C  I hate ridiculously warm nights,. 

Also I remmeber reading yesterday someone out in Norfolk, I believe unofficially, recorded 30.2C. Someone commented it on the Met office twitter site. 

[Leo97t]

4 minutes ago, qwertyK said:

What's the record for warmest May night in the UK? Here in Essex and London I believe the tempreature over night appears to be 17-18C  I hate ridiculously warm nights,. 

Also I remmeber reading yesterday someone out in Norfolk, I believe unofficially, recorded 30.2C. Someone commented it on the Met office twitter site. 

18.9C on 31 May 1947 Folkestone (Kent)

Will be close run tonight but unlikely 

[jules216]

How is this Euro weekly forecast panning out? Issued on April 26 and covering period between May 4th to 17th. I have circled my area to highlight the upshot of this EC debacle as you can not call it any other way, with reasonable short forecast period to produce this extreme temperature difference is something else @knocker@Mr Frost@carinthian@Downburst

 

Edited May 21, 2020 by jules216

[qwertyK]

Could this beat May 2018 though in terms of warmth?

[mb018538]

7 minutes ago, qwertyK said:

What's the record for warmest May night in the UK? Here in Essex and London I believe the tempreature over night appears to be 17-18C  I hate ridiculously warm nights,. 

Also I remmeber reading yesterday someone out in Norfolk, I believe unofficially, recorded 30.2C. Someone commented it on the Met office twitter site. 

I saw that - can’t be right. No way it’d be a whole 2c above the maximum official temp.

[qwertyK]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

I saw that - can’t be right. No way it’d be a whole 2c above the maximum official temp.

What about this may being warmest on record?

[mb018538]

2 minutes ago, qwertyK said:

What about this may being warmest on record?

Nowhere near I’m afraid - might just about make the top 20. The cold spell with the frosts just before the middle of the month put a massive dent in the CET. It will recover in the last 10 days probably back between 12-12.5c (ish).

[qwertyK]

Just now, mb018538 said:

Nowhere near I’m afraid - might just about make the top 20. The cold spell with the frosts just before the middle of the month put a massive dent in the CET. It will recover in the last 10 days probably back between 12-12.5c (ish).

Ah, I guess I forgot about that and the fact its only this warm in the south and east

[mb018538]

40 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

And?

We get more unsettled and cloudy cool weather throughout the year. For once, I’m not suffering from having cold hands.

We have barely had 2-3 days of hot weather, and already people are whining.

The same folk who say ‘oh toughen up you fairy’ when I feel cold in temps below 16c.

I think it’s the warmsters turn to enjoy what we don’t get much of. The coldies can wait until late August.

You may as well ignore that particular poster. He only really moans it’s not cold enough in the winter, then just appears for 3-4 months in summer to complain about how terrible and hot 20c+ is before disappearing again. Clockwork.