Spring 2020 | Moans, Ramps & Chat

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

2 minutes ago, qwertyK said:

Still, that's not entirely true is it? Trends are changing - sure summers may be dryer now, but didn't we have a period from around 2007-2012 where we had wet, cool summers? They were actually predicting abck then summers in the future would be cooler. Even so, rainfall this year must be more or less the same as last, if not more

You can't argue against a prediction for what might happen in 15 years' time by discussing events of a decade ago while at the same time ignoring current trends.  I'm not sure of rainfall so far this year, but, as only January was notably wet, I'd expect we're already well below average.

[MP-R]

11 minutes ago, qwertyK said:

Only 8th May to reach 24C? Really? I can't remember a May where we haven't reached 24C in May

Last year? Or did somewhere in the southeast cop it?

[LetItSnow!]

15 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Only if you ignore the inconvenient fact that rainfall is diminishing in summer.

is it? we know that during the period from 1989 to 2006, summer rainfall drastically decreased, but look at the figures of summers since 2007. doesn’t look like a drying trend to me. of course there is monthly variation at play, but the trend doesn’t lie.

summer rainfall percentages of average since 2007:

2007 — 177%

2008 — 148%

2009 — 134%

2010 — 112%

2011 — 123%

2012 — 194%

2013 — 81%

2014 — 115%

2015 — 124%

2016 — 116%

2017 — 146%

2018 — 69%

2019 — 142%

 

1981-2010 averages; info sourced from hadley ukp 

[qwertyK]

36 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

You can't argue against a prediction for what might happen in 15 years' time by discussing events of a decade ago while at the same time ignoring current trends.  I'm not sure of rainfall so far this year, but, as only January was notably wet, I'd expect we're already well below average.

February was the wettest on record

[qwertyK]

4 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

is it? we know that during the period from 1989 to 2006, summer rainfall drastically decreased, but look at the figures of summers since 2007. doesn’t look like a drying trend to me. of course there is monthly variation at play, but the trend doesn’t lie.

summer rainfall percentages of average since 2007:

2007 — 177%

2008 — 148%

2009 — 134%

2010 — 112%

2011 — 123%

2012 — 194%

2013 — 81%

2014 — 115%

2015 — 124%

2016 — 116%

2017 — 146%

2018 — 69%

2019 — 142%

 

1981-2010 averages; info sourced from hadley ukp 

Quite revealing then, I wonder what type of a summer we are looking at

[Mr Frost]

1 minute ago, LetItSnow! said:

is it? we know that during the period from 1989 to 2006, summer rainfall drastically decreased, but look at the figures of summers since 2007. doesn’t look like a drying trend to me. of course there is monthly variation at play, but the trend doesn’t lie.

summer rainfall percentages of average since 2007:

2007 — 177%

2008 — 148%

2009 — 134%

2010 — 112%

2011 — 123%

2012 — 194%

2013 — 81%

2014 — 115%

2015 — 124%

2016 — 116%

2017 — 146%

2018 — 69%

2019 — 142%

 

1981-2010 averages; info sourced from hadley ukp 

Spot on mate and here is some addition information for the 2011-2019 period against the 1981-2010 anomaly. (Summer rainfall amount)

 

Above average (UK as a whole) Summer rainfall months between 2011-2019:

June = 5

July = 5

August = 6

Below average (UK as a whole) Summer rainfall months between 2011-2019:

June = 4

July = 4

August = 3

Can’t argue with facts. 

[Methuselah]

1 hour ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

It's more a question of crop failures, wildfire risk and, less seriously but still to be considered, damage to gardens that's the problem.

But, as long as Joe Public's SodaStream still has its water supply, no-one gives a sheet!?

[Sunny76]

2 hours ago, markyo said:

First uncomfortable day....oh well it had to come...Aircon already going

First day without feeling cold in the shade. Lovely

[Sunny76]

1 hour ago, qwertyK said:

Only 8th May to reach 24C? Really? I can't remember a May where we haven't reached 24C in May

1983 and 1987 I think. Could be wrong though, as I remember late May 1987 feeling quite warm, although it was a cool month overall.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 hour ago, qwertyK said:

February was the wettest on record

Apologies - of course it was!  Even so, March to present might well have left the ongoing total around average.

Edited May 20, 2020 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

[BornFromTheVoid]

In terms of UK summer rainfall

Whole Record

Since 1900

Last 100 Years

Last 50 Years

Last 30 Years

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 hour ago, Mr Frost said:

Spot on mate and here is some addition information for the 2011-2019 period against the 1981-2010 anomaly. (Summer rainfall amount)

 

Above average (UK as a whole) Summer rainfall months between 2011-2019:

June = 5

July = 5

August = 6

Below average (UK as a whole) Summer rainfall months between 2011-2019:

June = 4

July = 4

August = 3

Can’t argue with facts. 

Interesting that summer 2013 was drier here than 2018, yet the landscape wasn't as brown/grey.  I presume that the winter of 2012/13 was wetter than that of 2017/18?

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

It would also be interesting to view the maps for spring in each of those years.

[Stabilo19]

A lovely, warm spring day today. 

Temps widely in the 20s across the UK, mid 20s further south & east. 28°C in a few spots. Could just get to 29-30°C with 1-2 hrs before max temp.

 

 

[Mr Frost]

 

15 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Interesting that summer 2013 was drier here than 2018, yet the landscape wasn't as brown/grey.  I presume that the winter of 2012/13 was wetter than that of 2017/18?

Don’t have time to break it down at the moment mate but here are the annual graphs (broken down by country/months) from 2011-2019. (Rainfall amount % against the 1981-2010 anomaly)

Quite easy to follow/workout and very interesting stuff for all us weather geeks! 

 

All the best and enjoy/don’t enjoy the current warmth/heat/sunshine everyone!

Edited May 20, 2020 by Mr Frost

[markyo]

30 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

First day without feeling cold in the shade. Lovely

First day without feeling cool in the shade. Crap 

Edited May 20, 2020 by markyo

[Nick L]

We certainly seem to be entering cycles of continuous rainfall and then long dry spells. What happened to frequent spells of moderate rainfall?

Since the incarceration/lockdown started, we can't have had more than 3 days of meaningful rainfall.

[Sunny76]

51 minutes ago, markyo said:

First day without feeling cool in the shade. Crap 

It’s lovely. I got fed up sitting in the shade during April and early May, when some days it felt quite chilly in the shade, and my hands were blue lol. 
 

Don’t get me wrong, I like those sunny spring days with a nip in the air, cool mornings and evenings, but as we enter the second half of May, I start to welcome the hot weather. 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 hour ago, Mr Frost said:

 

Don’t have time to break it down at the moment mate but here are the annual graphs (broken down by country/months) from 2011-2019. (Rainfall amount % against the 1981-2010 anomaly)

 

Cheers for that.  Seems as though most years since around 2012 have seen either a dry spring or summer.

[Sunny76]

8 minutes ago, Nick L said:

We certainly seem to be entering cycles of continuous rainfall and then long dry spells. What happened to frequent spells of moderate rainfall?

Since the incarceration/lockdown started, we can't have had more than 3 days of meaningful rainfall.

Think it’s been a regular occurrence since 2017, where a long dry sunny spell sets in between April and early June. 2019 was slightly different, but even then we had longer periods of sunny dry weather, irrespective of warm or cooler days.

The only issue I have is, another poor July and August is probably around the corner. 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

9 minutes ago, Nick L said:

We certainly seem to be entering cycles of continuous rainfall and then long dry spells. What happened to frequent spells of moderate rainfall?

Since the incarceration/lockdown started, we can't have had more than 3 days of meaningful rainfall.

Any thoughts as to the cause, Nick?  Singularity seems to think that SSTs have something to do with it, and, if he's correct, this summer will be interesting as he thinks most of the other variables are aligned towards a cooler, unsettled summer.

[Nick L]

6 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Any thoughts as to the cause, Nick?  Singularity seems to think that SSTs have something to do with it, and, if he's correct, this summer will be interesting as he thinks most of the other variables are aligned towards a cooler, unsettled summer.

A school of thought at work is because we're in a solar minimum, and therefore an increased tendency for blocking patterns.

[reef]

9 minutes ago, Nick L said:

A school of thought at work is because we're in a solar minimum, and therefore an increased tendency for blocking patterns.

There could be something to that. The weather of the last couple of years has been exactly that, lots of blocking so weather patterns getting stuck in a rut for long periods. Of course as ever, the blocking has been in the wrong place in the winter quarter, but still persistent nonetheless.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

19 minutes ago, Nick L said:

A school of thought at work is because we're in a solar minimum, and therefore an increased tendency for blocking patterns.

Interesting, thanks.  I'm sure cold fans here will want a blocked winter!

[Nick L]

13 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Interesting, thanks.  I'm sure cold fans here will want a blocked winter!

As reef suggests, blocked doesn't necessarily mean cold. You need the blocking in the "right" place.