Spring 2020 | Moans, Ramps & Chat

[Met.]

The cloud has evaporated now so we should be seeing a warm afternoon.

[Sunny76]

4 hours ago, reef said:

Theres no science or logic at all to it. Most months are above average now too so it's not like a link could be made between a cold April and a certain type of summer anyway!

Not all months are always above. I know more tend to be, but last year we still had several months below average.

[Sunny76]

2 hours ago, Don said:

Just out of interest, what forecast is that from?

 

https://www.gavsweathervids.com/summer-2020-weather-forecast.php

Edited April 11, 2020 by Sunny76

[Sunny76]

1 hour ago, qwertyK said:

Is today really record breaking? Remember April 2017 was like this. The summer that year turned out to be pretty average 

Summer 17 started off on a nice sunny warm note, and I remember the April to June period being really sunny, and a marked improvement for sunny weather compared to the stinkers of 2015 and 16.

However halfway through July, many areas had some severe thunderstorms (July 15th-18th period?) Tuesday night I think. We had one or two overnight storms. 
 

After the storms, we entered a more unsettled and sometimes cooler period of weather for the rest of the summer, apart from the nice warm sunny late August bank holiday.

[Sunny76]

1 hour ago, qwertyK said:

Last April was pretty cold. Though a massive temperature drop on Monday, from 23C to 10C

Yeah, and so was 2018. They both had a handful of warm to hot days, but most of the early part of the months were cold.

Lots of people were still wearing hats and scarves in both years.

 

[Sunny76]

36 minutes ago, reef said:

The CET of April 2019 was 9.1C, 0.6C above average. Just after mid-month had an especially warm spell with a 7 day mean over 14.0C. If that's a pretty cold April these days then we really are in trouble!

I think people love to ignore when we actually get cold weather these days.

We could have a May with the first 10-15 days around the 10-15c mark, which in my mind is cold, then a hot spell kicking in from around the 25th until the 31st. All of a sudden we are told we have an above average month, which is possibly the case when regarding the CET readings, so that’s what some people take note of.

The colder weather then is conveniently forgotten. 

This is still a cold country, when we look at the annual climate. It’s damp and cloudy for most of the year.

[B87]

8 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

I think people love to ignore when we actually get cold weather these days.

We could have a May with the first 10-15 days around the 10-15c mark, which in my mind is cold, then a hot spell kicking in from around the 25th until the 31st. All of a sudden we are told we have an above average month, which is possibly the case when regarding the CET readings, so that’s what some people take note of.

The colder weather then is conveniently forgotten. 

This is still a cold country, when we look at the annual climate. It’s damp and cloudy for most of the year.

The UK is not a cold country, it is a cool or mild one.

Case in point with the bolded statement:

Meteociel - Climatologie mensuelle de London / Heathrow (UK)

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

---

Résumé mensuel des observations météo ( températures minimales et maximales, précipitations et ensoleillement) de la station London / Heathrow (UK)

May 2012 had average temperatures, but the first 21 days were well on course to be the coldest on record here.

Summer 2017 also had a spell from 19th July to 14th August where every single day was below average.

Edited April 11, 2020 by B87

[Met.]

I have my weather records from April 2019. Against the average maximum temperature of 14.0°C (for last April) we had 19 days below average, and 11 above average. So actually there were more colder days than milder days, but the milder days were much milder than average whereas the colder days were only a bit colder than average. I hope this makes sense?

Edited April 11, 2020 by Thundershine

[Sunny76]

4 minutes ago, Thundershine said:

I have my weather records from April 2019. Against the average maximum temperature of 14.0°C (for last April) we had 19 days below average, and 11 above average. So actually there were more colder days than milder days, but the milder days were much milder than average whereas the colder days were only a bit colder than average. I hope this makes sense?

Yes it does make sense, but we still had cold days. So, one could argue it was a colder month in general, from how people remember it to be.

[Sunny76]

6 minutes ago, Thundershine said:

I have my weather records from April 2019. Against the average maximum temperature of 14.0°C (for last April) we had 19 days below average, and 11 above average. So actually there were more colder days than milder days, but the milder days were much milder than average whereas the colder days were only a bit colder than average. I hope this makes sense?

Yeah, I remember that period after the mid July storms of 2017. It felt like summer went from being nice and hot(high 20s around that time) to feeling cool or even cold and under 20c for many days. Summer ended in a sense. 

[Sunny76]

29 minutes ago, B87 said:

The UK is not a cold country, it is a cool or mild one.

Case in point with the bolded statement:

Meteociel - Climatologie mensuelle de London / Heathrow (UK)

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

---

Résumé mensuel des observations météo ( températures minimales et maximales, précipitations et ensoleillement) de la station London / Heathrow (UK)

May 2012 had average temperatures, but the first 21 days were well on course to be the coldest on record here.

Summer 2017 also had a spell from 19th July to 14th August where every single day was below average.

2010 and 12 had chilly first half periods in May. It wasn’t just cool, it felt quite cold at times. 
 

I wonder if the Ash Cloud of 2010 had an influence at keeping our summers cooler and unsettled around that time. 

[B87]

4 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

2010 and 12 had chilly first half periods in May. It wasn’t just cool, it felt quite cold at times. 
 

I wonder if the Ash Cloud of 2010 had an influence at keeping our summers cooler and unsettled around that time. 

Summer 2010 was probably the best of the bad bunch between 2007-2012. It had 2 warm months and 1 sunny month, vs 2009 which had 1 warm month and no sunny months.

[qwertyK]

Yes we do tend to have above average months...but that doesn't mean massively above. Take last month. Officially that was "above average". Yet it was only 0.1C above average, and it actually felt pretty cold. October was cold, and November was really cold. Probably the coldest November in a long time actually. This April isn't as warm as 2018 when we nearly reached 30C. Anyway, we are cooling down from next week and temps will be quite a bit colder than average for a few days before riding to something more seasonable. 

 

As said, people seem to have a selective memory when it comes to cold weather. 

[Don]

1 hour ago, Sunny76 said:

 

I wonder if the Ash Cloud of 2010 had an influence at keeping our summers cooler and unsettled around that time. 

Not sure as the cluster of cooler and unsettled summers started in 2007.  However, the ash cloud may have contributed towards the cooler and unsettled summers of 2011/12 but not been the primary cause?

[reef]

3 hours ago, Thundershine said:

I have my weather records from April 2019. Against the average maximum temperature of 14.0°C (for last April) we had 19 days below average, and 11 above average. So actually there were more colder days than milder days, but the milder days were much milder than average whereas the colder days were only a bit colder than average. I hope this makes sense?

Except April is a warming month, so 'average' is lower at the beginning compared to the end. In a month with an average max of 14C, a day with a high of 14C would be mild at the start and cool by the end. 

Either way, regardless of how it 'felt' April 2019 was above average.

[reef]

3 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

I think people love to ignore when we actually get cold weather these days.

We could have a May with the first 10-15 days around the 10-15c mark, which in my mind is cold, then a hot spell kicking in from around the 25th until the 31st. All of a sudden we are told we have an above average month, which is possibly the case when regarding the CET readings, so that’s what some people take note of.

The colder weather then is conveniently forgotten. 

This is still a cold country, when we look at the annual climate. It’s damp and cloudy for most of the year.

I dont think people ignore it or forget it, it's just quite rare these days.

It's alright talking about cold periods of weather, but the point is as the climate warms they are becoming less common and the stats show this. Average is a blunt figure but if 'average' is increasing each decade then it stands to reason that warm weather is becoming more common and cold weather less.

[Sunny76]

2 hours ago, reef said:

I dont think people ignore it or forget it, it's just quite rare these days.

It's alright talking about cold periods of weather, but the point is as the climate warms they are becoming less common and the stats show this. Average is a blunt figure but if 'average' is increasing each decade then it stands to reason that warm weather is becoming more common and cold weather less.

But, warm weather doesn’t necessarily mean better. 
 

It can be long periods of dull cloudy weather, with cool days. At the same time, the temp may read above average, but it may not feel that way.

August 1980 was cool, but recorded some very warm nights. I think that’s the worst combination of weather, where you get damp and dreary weather which makes the days in summer feel cool, but the nights can be humid, due to cloud cover.

This is how I remember 2002. It was a miserable summer and a miserable year. Loads of cloud, and poor when compared to summer 2001 and 03. 
 

Most months were grey and damp.

[Sunny76]

2 hours ago, reef said:

I dont think people ignore it or forget it, it's just quite rare these days.

It's alright talking about cold periods of weather, but the point is as the climate warms they are becoming less common and the stats show this. Average is a blunt figure but if 'average' is increasing each decade then it stands to reason that warm weather is becoming more common and cold weather less.

I don’t really want a return to 1986, when cold weather seemed to be more common, but we had to suffer with a cold summer, same goes with another 2007. I really don’t want that.

[Evening thunder]

3 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

I think people love to ignore when we actually get cold weather these days.

We could have a May with the first 10-15 days around the 10-15c mark, which in my mind is cold, then a hot spell kicking in from around the 25th until the 31st. All of a sudden we are told we have an above average month, which is possibly the case when regarding the CET readings, so that’s what some people take note of.

The colder weather then is conveniently forgotten. 

This is still a cold country, when we look at the annual climate. It’s damp and cloudy for most of the year.

Yeah true that could happen... That's always been the case though.
I feel that a feature of our climate in spring/summer may be that shorter spells of much above average temps can be balanced by longer spells of near/slightly below average temps.. as we usually get some form of Atlantic airflow but when the wind comes from the continent, temperatures spike.

In other words, maybe the median maximum is often a little lower than the mean maximum? (I haven't done any analysis to see if this is true).

That's no different to the past though, and of course discussion of the detail of what made up the average is good, but that doesn't mean anyone comparing current averages with past averages is 'loving to ignore' colder spells of weather or having selective memory.

2 hours ago, qwertyK said:

Yes we do tend to have above average months...but that doesn't mean massively above. Take last month. Officially that was "above average". Yet it was only 0.1C above average, and it actually felt pretty cold. October was cold, and November was really cold. Probably the coldest November in a long time actually. This April isn't as warm as 2018 when we nearly reached 30C. Anyway, we are cooling down from next week and temps will be quite a bit colder than average for a few days before riding to something more seasonable. 

 

As said, people seem to have a selective memory when it comes to cold weather. 

Looks like a couple near or below average days depending on location on Monday/Tuesday, then rising to comfortably above average by Thursday.
Average April Maxima (1981-2010) in lowland England are typically 12-14C.. even at Heathrow it's only 14.3C.

[Mapantz]

5 hours ago, qwertyK said:

As said, people seem to have a selective memory when it comes to cold weather. 

Well, you mentioned about last April being cold, it may well have been where you are, but you're generalising the month for everybody. Unless you specifically log weather data, like a few us do, you cannot call it like that.

April last year was a beaut here. Sunshine hours I recorded were above average, and temperature was way above average. Only 1 frost day at the beginning of the month. 

[qwertyK]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

Well, you mentioned about last April being cold, it may well have been where you are, but you're generalising the month for everybody. Unless you specifically log weather data, like a few us do, you cannot call it like that.

April last year was a beaut here. Sunshine hours I recorded were above average, and temperature was way above average. Only 1 frost day at the beginning of the month. 

Well I'm in the east so one of the warmest places in the UK especially given I'm close to London....we had lots of frost's that month. Only one this month so fsr

[Mapantz]

2 minutes ago, qwertyK said:

Well I'm in the east so one of the warmest places in the UK especially given I'm close to London....we had lots of frost's that month. Only one this month so fsr

Chelmsford Weather Station - Temperature Detail

WWW.CHELMERVILLAGE-WEATHER.CO.UK

---

Welcome to this local weather station, in the City of Chelmsford, Essex - Real time conditions, webcam, forecasts, alerts and historical weather data.

 

That's not far from you. 3 air frosts recorded. 

[Don]

2 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

I don’t really want a return to 1986, when cold weather seemed to be more common, but we had to suffer with a cold summer, same goes with another 2007. I really don’t want that.

I do, just to get another period of cold winters!  However, it will become less and less likely moving forward, albeit still possible but the odds are in your favour!

Edited April 11, 2020 by Don

[Thundery wintry showers]

The evidence for warm dry sunny Aprils and the following summer is pretty mixed - counterexamples include 1893, 1921, 1945, 1949, 1955, 1984, 1990, 1995 and 2003.  OK the Aprils of 1984 and 1990 weren't particularly warm as measured by the CET but that was because warm days were offset by cold nights, and the generally perceived nature of those two Aprils was warm and sunny.  April 1959 was also pretty warm (though not so outstanding sunshine and rainfall wise).  You could also add April 1997 to the list especially for the south-east (though it wasn't great sunshine wise for the NW), depending on whether you think the relatively warm and sunny July and record breaking August were enough to offset the dull wet June.

I was quite happy with the climate that I grew up with in the 1990s, for although the winters were relatively mild and snowless, much of this could be explained synoptically - the rapid warming of our cold air sources, particularly in the Norwegian and Russian Arctic, didn't really take hold until 2005 and there was a scientific paper some years ago which suggested that Northern Hemisphere northerlies did not reduce substantially in potency between 1980 and 2000.  The year 1995 has still not been surpassed or equalled as my favourite all-round year for weather and I still periodically get nostalgic flashbacks to it.  I would also be happy with a return to the 1980s climate - it's easy to dismiss it because of the summers of 1985 to 1988 inclusive, but don't forget the summers of 1983, 1984 and 1989.  In the south-west July 1983 still stands as the hottest calendar month on record, though in most other regions it got surpassed by July 2006.

There is one caveat though: sunshine appears to have increased in recent years, possibly mainly as a result of the reduced "global dimming" phenomenon from certain types of pollutant.

Edited April 12, 2020 by Thundery wintry showers

[Don]

14 minutes ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

I was quite happy with the climate that I grew up with in the 1990s, for although the winters were relatively mild and snowless, much of this could be explained synoptically - the rapid warming of our cold air sources, particularly in the Norwegian and Russian Arctic, didn't really take hold until 2005

I wonder what caused this to occur, considering this was before the record breaking low Arctic sea ice of 2007 and 2012?