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March 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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EWP was 22 mm after 8th, looks to have added as much as 15 mm on 9th. GFS ten day projections only average about 20 more and maps for days eleven to sixteen look fairly dry in a southeast flow. Would estimate being around 60 mm quite late into the month. 

As for CET, a lot of near average days ahead, when blocking starts to develop the first phase is mild then a colder east wind is shown arriving. If it all worked out that way, hard to see how we get very far from 6 C at any point, the colder turn having less impact on a moving CET with that many days accumulated. And then there's the usual question about how reliable is a GFS cold spell at 13-16 days? Last January (2019) we were shown colder maps than these which ended up being only a faint indicator of reality. So I am thinking anywhere from 5.5 to 7.5 is probably a good zone to be hopeful of success. I would love to see that milder blocking pattern swell up into a big warm spell, that's what I would need to have much chance. Would imagine that concept has about 10% support around here and 95% among the general public. ;)

 

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March confirmed as 6.7c https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt   4 winners for March   @JeffC @Dancerwithwings @Norrance @J10

As it appears likely that the month will finish in the 6's this might surprise you, but only one other year has ever seen its first three months in the 6's. That was 1846 (6.3, 6.4, 6.1) which later h

6.8c the 29th 1.1c above the 61 to 90 average 0.3c above the 81 to 10 average _____________________________ Current high this month 6.9c the 18th, 25th, 26th, 27th & 28th Curren

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Latest guidance seems a bit warmer and holds off the core of that colder easterly. Would say low 7s now quite likely and even high 7s possible. Fred, you won't regret making that change, IIRC 4 to 6.2? It may still come in quite close to that if the cold makes some advances.

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13 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Latest guidance seems a bit warmer and holds off the core of that colder easterly. Would say low 7s now quite likely and even high 7s possible. Fred, you won't regret making that change, IIRC 4 to 6.2? It may still come in quite close to that if the cold makes some advances.

Models trending a bit colder this morning....so while the first part of next week could be very mild and shoot the CET right up, after then it looks quite chilly with frosts and single figure maxima likely. Difficult to guess where the CET will end up!

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3 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Models trending a bit colder this morning....so while the first part of next week could be very mild and shoot the CET right up, after then it looks quite chilly with frosts and single figure maxima likely. Difficult to guess where the CET will end up!

Yes difficult and I could be totally wrong but I don't think the CET will finish above 7c.

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22 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Latest guidance seems a bit warmer and holds off the core of that colder easterly. Would say low 7s now quite likely and even high 7s possible. Fred, you won't regret making that change, IIRC 4 to 6.2? It may still come in quite close to that if the cold makes some advances.

Agreed Roger, there’ll be a cold surface feed I suspect so 6s looking good

 

BFTP

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There has been a colder turn on the GFS in the past few runs, but I am not convinced this is the final flip-flop we are going to see in coming days. And even with the flip-flop the end result is a warmer return flow near the end. Probably the most likely outcome will be a few colder days but only a slight drop in the running CET then a recovery, so wherever we are by this time next week may be a good indication of the end point as well. 

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6.4c the 13th

1.2c above the 61 to 90 average
0.5c above the 81 to 10 average

_____________________________

Current high this month 6.4c the 11th & 13th
Current low this month 4.8c the 5th

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EWP update -- 39 mm to 12th, added perhaps 2-3 mm to start of 12z GFS run, 20-25 mm estimated for grid average to 24th and a further 10 mm potential on maps for days 11 to 16. The estimated end of month from that is 65-80 mm. 

The latest guidance has backed off its coldest look from the previous day while keeping some cold days in the stream, so would currently estimate a high 6 to low 7 finish for the CET while not ruling out anything between 5 and 8. Which keeps about 90% of forecasts in the hunt. 

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March is a most interesting month, with things switching colder and milder and most people looking for the first signs of Spring. Frosts are still likely of course which would put a dent the CET even in late March, so it's still not clear where we are likely to end up. Although with the prospect of a cold high setting up late March I think it's unlikely that we will achieve a final CET over 7c now, although we may get there temporarily. Still a lot of uncertainty in the models but anyway I'm thinking a finish of 6.3-6.9c is likely, probably wrong though as usual.?

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Half way stage of the month, and much uncertainty how the CET may pan out over second half, a notably mild few days ahead until Thursday then a cooldown possibly marked, so the mild spell and cooler spell may cancel each other out, and this time next week will see the figure very close to where we are now, mid 6's.. thereafter, not clear at all.

 

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6.7c the 16th

1.4c above the 61 to 90 average
0.6c above the 81 to 10 average

_____________________________

Current high this month 6.7c the 15th & 16th
Current low this month 4.8c the 5th

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here in Edmonton we are at -9.4c to the 16th which is 6.9c below normal..heading for another below average month as it is forecast to stay below normal for the rest of the month.

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