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March 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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23 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Roger up mine to 6.2c some warm days but some cold nights within the month.  HP could dominate over top of us with some continental flow

 BFTP 

Boo!

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March confirmed as 6.7c https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt   4 winners for March   @JeffC @Dancerwithwings @Norrance @J10

As it appears likely that the month will finish in the 6's this might surprise you, but only one other year has ever seen its first three months in the 6's. That was 1846 (6.3, 6.4, 6.1) which later h

6.8c the 29th 1.1c above the 61 to 90 average 0.3c above the 81 to 10 average _____________________________ Current high this month 6.9c the 18th, 25th, 26th, 27th & 28th Curren

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Table of forecasts for March 2020 (CET with EWP)

Numbers in brackets are order of entry. 

CET _ EWP __ FORECASTER __________________ CET _ EWP __ FORECASTER

12.0 _ 200.0 __ Lettucing Gutted (10)_______________6.9 __ 77.0 __ Timmytour (17)

  9.4 __ 56.2 __ Roger J Smith (36) ________________ 6.9 _ ------ __ sundog (35)

  8.5 _ 100.0 __ syed2878 (25) ____________________ 6.9 _ ------ __ Quicksilver1989 (60)

  8.1 __ 90.0 __ Bobd29 (14) ______________________6.9 __ 69.0 __ DAVID SNOW (52)

  7.9 _ 144.0 __ Robbie Garrett (61) ________________ 6.8 __ 90.0 __ weather-history (38)

  7.7 __ ------ __ Summer Sun (41) _________________ 6.8 __ 64.3 __ 1990-2019 average

  7.7 __ 77.0 __ seaside60 (49) ____________________ 6.7 __ 70.0 __ JeffC (1)

  7.6 __ 69.2 __ CheesepuffScott (2) ________________ 6.7 _ ------ __ Dancerwithwings (28)

  7.6 _ 155.0 __ I remember Atlantic 252 (11) _________ 6.7 __ 80.0 __ Norrance (53)

  7.6 __ 98.0 __ Joneseye (16) ____________________ 6.7 _ 100.0 __ J10 (55)

  7.6 __ 90.0 __ Summer Blizzard (23) ______________ 6.6 __ 79.0 __ snowray (30)

  7.5 __ 65.2 __ Thundery Wintry Showers (63) _______ 6.6 _ 102.0 __ ThundersnowDays (L1-3)

  7.5 __ 57.0 __ Reef (45) ________________________ 6.6 __71.5 __ 1981-2010 average

  7.5 __ 80.0 __ mb018538 (51) ___________________ 6.5 _ 110.0 __ brmbrmcar (12)

  7.5 __ 78.0 __ Don (54) _________________________6.5 __ 87.0 __ prolongedSnowLover (46)

  7.4 __ 66.0 __ Emmett Garland (43) _______________ 6.5 _ 110.0 __ Stewfox (L1-1)

  7.4 __ 80.0 __ Born From The Void (L2-1) __________ 6.4 __ 96.6 __ Kirkcaldy Weather (31)

 7.3 __ 39.0 __ Feb1991Blizzard (39) _______________ 6.3 __ 86.0 __ Midlands Ice Age (47)

 7.3 __ 60.0 __ The PIT (40) ______________________ 6.2 __ 45.0 __ Weather26 (7)

 7.3 __ 63.0 __ February 1978 (62) _________________6.2 __ 72.0 __ Kentspur (44)

 7.2 __ 50.0 __ B87 (32) _________________________ 6.2 __ 68.0 __ BLAST FROM THE PAST (57,12.5)

 7.2 __ ------ __ damianslaw (37) ___________________6.1 _ 199.0 __ NeilN (15)

 7.2 __ 65.0 __ Mulzy (50) ________________________6.1 __ 82.0 __ Godber 1 (24)

 7.2 __ 84.0 __ Mr Maunder (56)___________________ 6.0 __ 80.0 __ DiagonalRedLine (9)

 7.1 __ ------ __ Man With Beard (27) _______________ 5.9 __ 88.0 __ SteveB (3)

 7.1 __ 89.0 __ Stationary Front (33)________________5.9 __ 95.0 __ pegg24 (26)

 7.1 __ ----- __ Duncan McAlister (L1-4) _____________ 5.9 __ ------ __ Walsall Wood Snow (64)

 7.0 __ ------ __ Fozfoster (19) _____________________ 5.7 __ 67.0 __ daniel* (34)

 7.0 __ 75.0 __ General Cluster (29) ________________ 5.7 _ 111.0 __ davehsug (L1-2)

 7.0 __ ------ __ Mark Bayley (42) ___________________ 5.6 __ 49.0 __ Carl46Wrexham (20)

 7.0 __ 80.0 __ DR(S)NO (48, 12.5) _________________ 5.5 _ 130.0 __ Shillitocettwo (21)

 7.0 __ 68.0 __ Senior Ridge (58)____________________5.4 __ 92.0 __ virtualsphere (8)

 ______________________________________________ 5.4 _ 125.0 __ LetItSnow! (18)

 ______________________________________________ 5.1 _ ------ __ Kentish Man (59)

 ______________________________________________ 5.0 __ 70.1 __ Dog Toffee (6)

 _ 6.9 __ 80.0 __ consensus _______________________ 5.0 __ 50.0 __ Twilight (13)

_______________________________________________ 5.0 __ 75.0 __ Jonboy (L2-2)

_______________________________________________ 4.5 _ 550.0 __ Thundershine (4)

_______________________________________________ 4.2 __ 75.5 __ Polar Gael (22)

_______________________________________________ 3.2 __ 54.0 __ SLEETY (5)

64 on-time forecasts, four more are one day late, plus two that are two days late, for 70 total forecasts

consensus (median) is 6.9

=============================================================================

EWP forecasts in order

Thun 550 .. LG 200 .. NN 199 .. IRA252 155.0 .. RG 144 ..shil 130 .. LIS 125 .. dave^ 111 .. brm, stew^ 110

 TSD^ 102 .. syed, J10 100.0 ... Jones 98 ... KirkWx 96.6 ... pegg 95 ... virt 92 ... Bobd, SB, wx-his 90 ... SF 89

 Ste 88 .. pSL 87 .. MIA 86 .. MrM 84 .. Godb 82 .. DRL, DR(S)NO, mb, Norr, BFTV^^ 80.0 (con) .. snow 79

Don 78 .. Timmy, sea 77 .. PG 75.5 .. GC, jon^^ 75 .. KS 72 .. 81-10 71.5 .. DT 70.1 .. Jeff 70 .. CPS 69.2

DS 69 .. BFTP, SR 68 ... dan* 67 ... EG 66 ... TWS 65.2 ... Mul 65 ...  90-19 64.3 ... Feb78 63.0 ... PIT 60

Reef 57 ... RJS 56.2 ... SLE 54 ... Twi, B87 50.0 ... Carl 49 ... Wx26 45.0 ... Feb 91  39.0

_________________

54 on time forecasts, and three marked one day late ^ plus two that are two days late ^^ = 59 total forecasts so far

consensus (median) is 80.0

 

 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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21 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Hey champ, that's 2 months in a row you have followed my number....

:oldgrin:

Ha, great minds think alike lol, hopefully this month will see less in the way of stormy weather and rain....

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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March CET 1981-2010 averages and 1772-2019 extremes

 

DATE ___ MAX ____________ MIN ________ CET date, cum ___ Running CET extreme values

01 Mar ... 10.7 (1878) ... ... -3.8 (2018.)... ... ... ... 5.0 ... ... 5.0 ... ... ... 10.7 (1878.) ... ... -3.8 (2018.)
02 Mar ... 11.1 (1777) ... ... -3.2 (1965) ... ... ... ... 4.8 ... ... 4.9 ... ... ... 10.2 (1878,1999).-3.0 (2018.) 
03 Mar ... 11.0 (1777) ... ... -3.9 (1965) ... ... ... ... 4.9 ... ... 4.9 ... ... ... 10.3 (1801) ... ... -2.1 (1965)
04 Mar ... 12.3 (1859) ... ... -2.9 (1909) ... ... ... ... 4.7 ... ... 4.8 ... ... ... 10.1 (1859) ... ... -1.9 (1965)
05 Mar ... 10.9 (1834) ... ... -2.8 (1786&1909) .... 5.4 ... ... 5.0 ... ... ... 10.0 (1834) ... ... -1.6 (1909)

06 Mar ... 12.0 (1989) ... ... -4.7 (1786) ... ... ... ... 6.4 ... ... 5.2 ... ... .... 9.9 (1859) ... ... -1.7 (1786)
07 Mar ... 10.9 (1875) ... ... -3.3 (1947) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... 5.4 ... ... .... 9.7 (1834) ... ... -1.7 (1786, 1947)
08 Mar ... 12.2 (2000) ... ... -3.1 (1786) ... ... ... ... 6.5 ... ... 5.5 ... ... .... 9.7 (1834) ... ... -1.9 (1786)
09 Mar ... 12.4 (1948) ... ... -3.0 (1917) ... ... ... ... 6.2 ... ... 5.6 ... ... .... 9.8 (1834) ... ... -1.8 (1786)
10 Mar ... 11.6 (1957) ... ... -2.4 (1883) ... ... ... ... 6.9 ... ... 5.7 ... ... .... 9.7 (1834) ... ... -1.6 (1786)

11 Mar ... 12.6 (1957) ... ... -1.9 (1847) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... 5.8 ... ... .... 9.5 (1834) ... ... -1.1 (1786)
12 Mar ... 13.4 (1957) ... ... -2.4 (1785) ... ... ... ... 6.0 ... ... 5.8 ... ... .... 9.4 (1834) ... ... -0.6 (1786, 1947)
13 Mar ... 12.8 (1991) ... ... -6.5 (1845) ... ... ... ... 6.3 ... ... 5.9 ... ... .... 9.2 (1957) ... ... -0.4 (1786, 1947)
14 Mar ... 11.5 (1805) ... ... -3.7 (1845) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... 5.9 ... ... .... 9.2 (1957) ... ... -0.4 (1845)
15 Mar ... 11.9 (1884) ... ... -1.6 (1867) ... ... ... ... 7.0 ... ... 6.0 ... ... .... 9.3 (1957) ... ... -0.5 (1845)

16 Mar ... 13.2 (2004) ... ... -3.0 (1845) ... ... ... ... 6.9 ... ... 6.1 ... ... .... 9.4 (1957) ... ... -0.6 (1845)
17 Mar ... 13.2 (2005) ... ... -2.2 (1845) ... ... ... ... 7.5 ... ... 6.1 ... ... .... 9.5 (1957) ... ... -0.7 (1845)
18 Mar ... 14.1 (1990) ... ... -1.3 (1853) ... ... ... ... 7.1 ... ... 6.2 ... ... .... 9.5 (1957) ... ... -0.6 (1845)
19 Mar ... 11.8 (1822) ... ... -0.9 (1814) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... 6.2 ... ... .... 9.5 (1957) ... ... -0.5 (1845)
20 Mar ... 12.3 (1779) ... ... -1.6 (1845) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... 6.2 ... ... .... 9.5 (1957) ... ... -0.6 (1845)

21 Mar ... 11.7 (1927,1931).-1.6 (1899) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... 6.2 ... ... .... 9.4 (1957) ... ... -0.4 (1845)
22 Mar ... 12.6 (1903) ... ... .-0.9 (1837) ... ... ... ... 6.9 ... ... 6.3 ... ... .... 9.4 (1957) ... ... -0.1 (1845)
23 Mar ... 12.1 (1852,1945).-0.8 (1837,1899) ...... 6.9 ... ... 6.3 ... ... .... 9.4 (1957) ... ... +0.2 (1845)
24 Mar ... 13.4 (1776) ... ... .-0.6 (1879) ... ... ... ... 7.4 ... ... 6.4 ... ... .... 9.4 (1957) ... ... +0.4 (1845)
25 Mar ... 13.9 (1777) ... ... .-1.3 (1853) ... ... ... ... 7.3 ... ... 6.4 ... ... .... 9.2 (1957) ... ... +0.7 (1845)

26 Mar ... 14.6 (1777) ... ... .-0.3 (1879,1901) ...... 7.2 ... ... 6.4 ... ... .... 9.3 (1957) ... ... +1.0 (1845)

27 Mar ... 14.8 (1777) ... ...  +0.1 (1901) ... ... ... ...7.1 ... ... 6.4 ... ... .... 9.2 (1957) ... ... +1.3 (1785, 1845)

28 Mar ... 12.6 (1822,1998).-0.3 (1785) ... ... ... ... 7.2 ... ... 6.5 ... ... .... 9.3 (1957) ... ... +1.3 (1785)
29 Mar ... 13.4 (1813) ... ...  -0.7 (1785) ... ... ... ... 7.2 ... ... 6.5 ... ... .... 9.3 (1957) ... ... +1.2 (1785)
30 Mar ... 15.1 (2017) ..... ... 0.0 (1799) ... ... ... ... 7.6 ... ... 6.5 ... ... .... 9.2 (1957) ... ... +1.2 (1785)

31 Mar ... 13.8 (1815) ... ... .-0.8 (1799) ... ... ... ... 8.0 ... ... 6.6 ... ... .... 9.2 (1957) ... ... +1.2 (1785)**

________________________________________________________________________

** 1674 had a mean CET of 1.0 so was colder here and possibly on earlier dates in the month too. 

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5.3c the 1st

0.7c above the 61 to 90 average

0.3c above the 81 to 10 average

_____________________________

Current high this month 5.3c the 1st

Current low this month 5.3c the 1st

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5.0c the 2nd

0.4c above the 61 to 90 average

0.1c above the 81 to 10 average

_____________________________

Current high this month 5.3c the 1st

Current low this month 5.0c the 2nd

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5.1c the 3rd

0.6c above the 61 to 90 average

0.2c above the 81 to 10 average

_____________________________

Current high this month 5.3c the 1st

Current low this month 5.0c the 2nd

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EWP has opened up slowly, 3 mm to 2nd and not much added since then. The GFS 10-day forecast shows a muted version of the February pattern but it only appears to be around 20 mm away from the much wetter mountains of Wales and Cumbria. The maps for days 11 to 16 could add 10-15 mm. So if this verifies, we would be near the 20th with only 30-40 mm in the bucket. Perhaps 50-60 is not unrealistic given the model performances in February.

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4.9c the 4th

0.3c above the 61 to 90 average

0.1c above the 81 to 10 average

_____________________________

Current high this month 5.3c the 1st

Current low this month 4.9c the 4th

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1 minute ago, snowray said:

you could be forgiven for thinking that winter had just started! ?

I thought it had......

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