March 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[JeffC]

On 02/04/2020 at 22:04, Roger J Smith said:

In terms of best combined forecast, as I was saying the best EWP forecasts were all wide of the CET mark, so JeffC takes that as well with his 17th place EWP combined with top CET (18 points), second place was DAVID SNOW who was 15th EWP and 13th CET (28 points) then B87 and Blast from the Past -- but nobody outperformed our most recent 30-year average in this combined category (if we take their CET rank as equal to first in at their level, 1990-2019 was 5th in CET and 6th in EWP, total 11 points). 

Well done JeffC and recent average. 

Thanks @Roger J Smith, pure guesswork, I assure you!!

Now to pick the lottery numbers!

[Roger J Smith]

There wasn't much of a range in daily temperatures last month, 5.5 deg between a min of 4.0 and a max of 9.5 ... however last year had only a 5.1 range (5.4 to 10.5), and there were three years that beat that, two at 5.0 (1794 -- 4.1 to 9.1 and 1982 -- 3.5 to 8.5 ) and one with a very narrow range of 3.4 (from 5.6 to 9.0) in 1933. 

[Roger J Smith]

Hadley EWP are late to post any final value for March. I have been checking daily but no sign of the number that usually gets posted on the 5th. That's why no update from me on EWP scoring but it can only change marginally from the preliminary report, assuming the final value is somewhere between 56 and 60 mm. 

Edited April 8, 2020 by Roger J Smith

[Roger J Smith]

We do have an update now, the confirmed value is 58.4 mm. That probably means all the provisional scoring is okay, since I used 58.2 mm and most people go with whole numbers. There might be the odd slight change made in scoring. Will post a more complete summary than before, later today. 

[Roger J Smith]

Confirmed scoring for all entries, EWP contest, March 2020 and annual update

>> all scores in order except that our two normals and consensus are shown on same line with ranks >>

>> March scores show late penalties (^ for each day late) beside forecaster name, explains occasional jogs in forecast error (e.g. 22nd 23rd) >>

>> annual rankings for those active in contest in March and/or April only (after top 40) >> 

 

Rank __ Forecaster _______ Fcst ___ Score _______ Annual __ Forecaster ___ Total score, pos Feb 2020

 

01 _____ Reef ___________57.0 ___ 10.00 __________01 __ Emmett Garland ____34.26 ______2nd

02 _____ The PIT ________ 60.0 ____ 9.83 __________02 __ Reef _____________ 34.18 ______3rd

03 _____ Roger J Smith ___ 56.2 ____ 9.66__________ 03 __ Twilight ___________ 27.55 ______T-14th

04 _____ SLEETY ________54.0 ____ 9.48__________ 04 __ Robbie Garrett _____ 27.44 ______1st

05 _____ February1978 ____63.0 ____ 9.31__________ 05 __ DR(S)NO _________26.90 ______5th

(06) _______ 1990-19 avg __64.3 ____ 9.23__________(03)__ 1990-2019 avg  ____ 29.52 _____10th

06 _____ Mulzy __________ 65.0 ____ 9.14__________ 06 __ Godber 1 _________ 26.53 ______4th

07 _____ Thundery Wintry Sh 65.2 ____8.97__________ 07 __ mb018538 ________ 26.21 ______7th

08 _____ Emmett Garland __ 66.0 ____8.80__________ 08 __ Don ______________26.15 ______8th

09 _____ Twilight _________ 50.0 ____ 8.62__________ 09 __ Timmytour ________ 25.70 _____11th

10 _____ B87 ____________ 50.0 (2) _ 8.54__________ 10 __ Kentspur __________25.65 ____T-14th

11 _____ daniel* __________67.0 ____ 8.28__________ 11 __ Thundery Wintry Shwr 25.08 _____27th

12 _____ Carl46Wrexham __ 49.0 ____ 8.11__________ 12 __ Stationary Front  ____ 25.07 ______6th

13 _____ Blast from the Past_ 68.0 ____7.93__________ 13 __ Jonboy ___________ 25.01 _____13th

14 _____ Senior Ridge _____ 68.0 (2) _ 7.86__________ 14 __ Mulzy ____________ 24.91 _____30st

15 _____ DAVID SNOW ____ 69.0 ____7.59__________ 15 __ Dog Toffee ________ 24.61 _____19th

16 _____ CheesepuffScott __ 69.2 ____ 7.42__________ 16 __ Roger J Smith _____ 23.88 _____35th

17 _____ JeffC ___________ 70.0 ____ 7.24__________ 17 __ General Cluster ____ 23.43 _____22nd

18 _____ Dog Toffee _______70.1 ____ 7.07__________ 18 __ Weather 26 _______ 23.06 _____ 26th

19 _____ Weather26 _______45.0 ____ 6.90__________ 19 __ daniel *___________ 22.91 _____34th

(20) ______ 1981-2010 avg _ 71.5 ____ 6.81__________(14)__ 1981-2010 avg_____ 24.93 _____19th

20 _____ Kentspur ________ 72.0 ____ 6.72__________ 20 __ J10 ______________ 22.40 ______6th

 

21 _____ General Cluster ___75.0 ____ 6.55 __________21 __ JeffC _____________ 22.25 _____33rd

22 _____ Polar Gael _______ 75.5 ____ 6.21 _________ 22 __ Midlands Ice Age ____22.22 _____16th

23 _____ Jonboy^^ ________ 75.0 (2) __6.07 _________ 23 __ DAVID SNOW ______ 21.79 _____36th

24 _____ Timmytour _______ 77.0 ____ 6.04 __________24 __ snowray ___________21.70 _____ 24th

25 _____ seaside60 _______ 77.0 (2) __5.96 __________25 __ Bobd29 ___________ 20.71 _____ 20th

26 _____ Feb1991Blizzard __ 39.0 ____ 5.69 __________26 __ SLEETY __________ 20.37 _____ 42nd

27 _____ Don ____________ 78.0 ____ 5.52 __________ 27 __ Born From the Void  _ 20.29 _____ 29th

28 _____ snowray _________ 79.0 ____5.34 __________ 28 __ Radiating Dendrite __ 19.83 _____ 10th (entered 2 D J)

29 _____ DiagonalRedLine __ 80.0 ____5.17 __________ 29 __ brmbrmcar ________ 19.78 _____ T-17th

(T29) ___consensus _______80.0 ____5.17 __________(15) __ consensus _______24.89 _____ 11th

30 _____ DR(S)NO ________ 80.0 (2)__5.09 __________ 30 __ Mr Maunder _______19.46 _____ 31st 

31 _____ mb018538 _______ 80.0 (3)__5.01 __________ 31 __ syed2878 _________19.41 _____ 21st 

32 _____ Norrance ________ 80.0 (4)__4.93 __________ 32 __ Mr TOAD _________ 18.99 _____ 31st (entered 3 D J F)

33 _____BornFromTheVoid^^_80.0 (5)__4.45__________ 33 __ February1978 _____ 18.74 _____ 52nd (entered 3 J F M) 

34 _____ Godber 1 _________82.0 ____4.31 __________ 34 __ Kirkcaldy Weather __18.71 _____ 25th 

35 _____ Mr Maunder ______ 84.0 ____4.14 __________ 35 __ Relativistic ________18.23 _____T-17th (entered 3 D J F)

36 _____ Midlands Ice Age __ 80.6 ____3.96 __________ 36 __ seaside60 ________ 18.22 _____ 39th 

37 _____ProlongedSnowLover 87.0 ____3.79 __________ 37 __ Virtualsphere ______17.99 _____ 32nd 

38 _____ SteveB __________ 88.0 ____3.62 __________ 38 __ SteveB ___________17.61 _____ 37th 

39 _____ Stationary Front ___89.0 ____3.45 __________ 39 __ BlastFromThePast __17.52 _____ 47th 

40 _____ Bobd29 _________ 90.0 ____3.28 __________ 40 __ The PIT __________ 17.44 _____ 70th 

41 _____ summer blizzard __ 90.0 (2)__3.20 __________ 41 __ davehsug _________ 17.09 _____ 28th 

42 _____ weather-history ___ 90.0 (3)__3.12 __________ 43 __ Feb1991Blizzard ___ 13.90 _____ 74th 

43 _____ virtualsphere _____ 92.0 ____2.76 __________ 44 __ProlongedSnowLover _13.79 ____T-45th (entered 2 F M )

44 _____ Pegg24 _________ 95.0 ____2.58 __________ 45 __ Neil N ____________ 13.40 _____ 38th 

45 _____ Kirkcaldy Weather _96.6 ____2.41 ___________46 __ CheesepuffScott ___ 13.15 _____ 90th 

46 _____ Joneseye _______ 98.0 ____2.24 ___________ 47 __ Carl46Wrexham ____13.09 _____ 95th 

47 _____ syed2878 ______ 100.0 ____2.07 ___________ 48 __ Norrance _________ 13.06 _____ 65th 

48 _____ J10 ___________ 100.0 (2)__1.99 ___________49 __ Polar Gael ________ 12.66 _____ 83rd 

49 _____ brmbrmcar ______110.0 ____1.55 ___________50 __ weather-history ____ 12.58 _____ 51st 

50 _____ ThundersnowDays^ 102.0____1.52 __________ 52 __ Stargazer _________11.98 _____40th (ent 2 D J, has returned Apr)

51 _____ stewfox^ ________110.0 (2)__1.27 __________ 53 __ Senior Ridge ______ 11.24 ____107th (entered 2 F M) 

52 _____ Let It Snow! _____ 125.0 ____1.03 __________ 54 __ Pegg24 __________ 11.21 _____ 60th (entered 3 D F M)

53 _____ davehsug^_______111.0 ____1.00 __________ 55 __ DiagonalRedLine __ 10.53 _____ 93rd (entered 3 D F M)

54 _____ shillitocet2 ______130.0 ____ 0.86 __________ 57 __ Joneseye ________ 10.24 _____ 44th (entered 3 D J M)

55 _____ Robbie Garrett ___144.0 ____ 0.69 __________58 __ Let It Snow! _______ 10.06 _____ 57th (entered 3 J F M)

56 _____ I Rem Atl 252 ___ 155.0 ____ 0.52 __________ 60 __ shillitocet2 _________ 9.70 _____ 60th (entered 3 D F M)

57 _____ Neil N _________ 199.0 ____ 0.35 __________ 66 __ I Rem Atl 252 _______9.22 _____ 59th (entered 3 D J M)

58 _____ Lettucing Gutted __200.0 ____0.17 __________ 69 __ B87 ______________ 8.71 _____130st  (entered 2, F M )

59 _____ Thundershine ___ 550.0 ____ 0.00 __________ 76 __ stewfox ___________ 7.91 _____ 81st 

--- ____________________________________________109 __ summer blizzard ___ 3.20 _____ --- (first entry March)

--- ____________________________________________122 __ ThunderSnowDays __ 1.52 _____ --- (first entry March)

--- ____________________________________________132 __ Lettucing Gutted ____ 0.33 _____ 131st 

--- ____________________________________________ 135 __ Thundershine ______ 0.00 _____ --- (first entry March) 

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In the above table, the number of contests entered does not include April. A note is only made for those with fewer than four entries (D J F M).

After 40th place, missing from annual ranks are those who were not active in March or April. This explains the difference in rank numbering after 40th place.

(Pinball Wizard 42nd entered only D J) etc _ 16.74 points