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March 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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March CET averages and extremes

15.1 ... warmest March daily mean (30th, 2017)

14.7 ... previous warmest March daily mean (27th, 1777)

 9.2 ... Warmest March (1957)
 9.1 ... 2nd warmest March (1938)

 8.7 ... 3rd warmest March (2017)
 8.4 ... 4th warmest March (1997)
 8.3 ... 5th warmest March (1948,1990, 2012)
 8.2 ... 8th warmest March and warmest before 20th century (1750, tied with 1961)
 

 7.9 ...1981, 1991, 1998

 7.8 ... 2019

 7.7 ...1994

 7.6 ... 2000, 2002, 2014 

 7.5 ... 1989, 1992, 2003 

 7.4 ... 1999 

 7.2 ... 2005, 2007 

 7.0 ... 2009  

 6.8 ... mean of 1990-2019

 6.7 ... 1993, 2011 and mean of 1991-2019

 6.6 ... mean of 1981-2010 

 6.5 ... 2004 and mean of 21st century (2001-2019)

 6.4 ... 1983, 1988, 2015

 6.3 ... mean of 1971-2000

 6.1 ... 1982, 2008, 2010

 5.8 ... mean of 20th century (1901-2000) and 2016
 5.7 ... mean of 1961-1990

 5.6 ... 1995
 5.3 ... mean of all 361 years (1659-2019) _ actually 5.35 rounded up from 5.349 so 5.3 or 5.4
 5.2 ... mean of 19th century (1801-1900) and 2001
 5.0 ... mean of 18th century (1701-1800)
 

 4.9 ... 1986, 2006, 2018
 4.7 ... 1984, 1985

 4.6 ... mean of (CET portion of) 17th century (1659-1700)
 4.5 ... 1996

 4.1 ... 1987 

 2.8 ... 1962 ... Coldest March of 20th century

 2.7 ... 2013 ... Coldest March since 1892 ... tied with 1892 and 1784 joint 12th coldest March

 1.8 ... 3rd coldest March (1748)
 1.2 ... 2nd coldest March (1785)
 1.0 ... Coldest March (1674)

 1.0 ... Mean of last ten days of March 2013 (22nd-31st)

 0.6 ... Mean of the five days 22nd-26th March 2013

-3.8 ... daily record set on 1st (2018)

-3.9 ... Coldest March daily mean since all-time low in 1845 (3rd, 1965)

-6.5 ... Coldest March daily mean (13th, 1845)

Enter your forecast by the end of Saturday, 29 Feb to avoid time penalties, or by the end of Tuesday 3rd of March with time penalties but before the absolute deadline.

____________________________________________________________

 

Optional March 2020 EWP forecast contest 

Predict the March England and Wales average rainfall in mm, verification is from Hadley EWP and all data in the following table are from the Hadley records which run from 1766 to 2019. 

The deadline information is the same as above, 0.2 points (of a possible 10.0) are deducted for each day late.

 

177.5 __ maximum (1947)

160.4 __ maximum 1981-2019 (1981)

115.1 __ 2018 (max since 1981)

 95.1 __ 2016

 94.7 __ 2019

 80.6 __ 2017

 76.4 __ 2013

 71.5 __ mean 1981-2010

 64.3 __ mean 1990-2019

 55.5 __ 2014

 51.4 __ 2015

 30.9 __ 2012

 22.3 __ minimum 1981-2019 (2011) (20th lowest 1766-2019) ... 1990 was 22.4

 05.6 __ minimum (1781)  

________________________________________________________

You can enter both contests in the same post, and good luck. 

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Edited by Roger J Smith
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March confirmed as 6.7c https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt   4 winners for March   @JeffC @Dancerwithwings @Norrance @J10

As it appears likely that the month will finish in the 6's this might surprise you, but only one other year has ever seen its first three months in the 6's. That was 1846 (6.3, 6.4, 6.1) which later h

6.8c the 29th 1.1c above the 61 to 90 average 0.3c above the 81 to 10 average _____________________________ Current high this month 6.9c the 18th, 25th, 26th, 27th & 28th Curren

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I'll go for a month in the same style as autmn 2019 and winter has been so far - constant downpours and rain and also cold

4.5°C, 550mm.

Record wettest March ever, massive flooding and people having to leave the country due to more than 60% of it becoming immersed under water.

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Quick question (not sure right thread) Whats the mildest winter 3 months CET for DJF? Using the Netweather CET average should be 5.1c + 4.2c +4.2c = 13.5c /3 = 4.5c. So far we are at 6.37c + 6.89c +6.97c = 20.23c / 3 = 6.74c !   

Basically an Autumn!  

I feel we may have 'tipped' into a new era of climate change here I really hope we haven't. 

Just interested how this winter sits in the overall numbers. I can also see its been very wet!

 

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6.0*C with 80mm rainfall please. Cheers.

A month that may start off chilly. A mixture of rain, sleet and snow in places. Warming up greatly beyond mid-March with lots of sunshine. An extremely intense hot plume from the South will then bring temperatures up to 29*C in places breaking down to some severe thunderstorms and a massive sudden undercut of freezing air dropping temperatures like a big rock. The torrential rain and hail accompanying these thunderstorms will become replaced by big, fat, snowflakes during the massive temperature drop. Final part of March becoming sunny and warm, again.

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Tried to look at Decembers between 5.5 and 6.4C that had Januarys greater than 6C for a pattern, only to find 1736/7 was the only previous winter year in which it happened!

The Feb of that year was 4.2C while this year looks considerably higher.  the March was 6.1C so I'll go higher on that.

6.9C and 77mm for me please.

 

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