March 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[feb1991blizzard]

2 hours ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

There will be a marked downward adjustment at the end of the month with all the cold mornings!

Yes - unfortunately.

[snowray]

3 hours ago, reef said:

Maxima were sufficiently high to balance the cooler nights out. The 24th and 25th had mean max temps of 15.3C and 15.5C for example.

True but it's the 27th and the 28th that I thought were colder.

[Scorcher]

12 hours ago, snowray said:

Amazing still on 6.9c, thought them frosts we had would have knocked it back down by now.

Why? It's been a warm week for the northern stations in the CET area- Stonyhurst for example managed 17C on at least one day this week.

Also there were frosts but not hard frosts and not on every day of the week. Min of 1C and Max of 16C averages out at 8.5C.

I've been saying all week that this month is going to end up higher than a lot of people were anticipating earlier on in the week- it's simply too late for this cooler spell to have a big impact.

[DAVID SNOW]

17 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Why? It's been a warm week for the northern stations in the CET area- Stonyhurst for example managed 17C on at least one day this week.

Also there were frosts but not hard frosts and not on every day of the week. Min of 1C and Max of 16C averages out at 8.5C.

I've been saying all week that this month is going to end up higher than a lot of people were anticipating earlier on in the week- it's simply too late for this cooler spell to have a big impact.

A lot of people?

Again final figure 6.4...

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

It looks like April will be a changeable month with warm spells but also cooler more unsettled spells. Hard to call whether it’d end above or close to average temperature wise! Don’t think below normal looks as likely now.

Edited March 30, 2020 by prolongedSnowLover

[Scorcher]

8 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

A lot of people?

Again final figure 6.4...

You were one of the few who didn't predict a big fall to be fair.

Others were expecting it to drop into the low 6s by month's end.

[snowray]

8 hours ago, Scorcher said:

Why? It's been a warm week for the northern stations in the CET area- Stonyhurst for example managed 17C on at least one day this week.

Also there were frosts but not hard frosts and not on every day of the week. Min of 1C and Max of 16C averages out at 8.5C.

I've been saying all week that this month is going to end up higher than a lot of people were anticipating earlier on in the week- it's simply too late for this cooler spell to have a big impact.

Yes the northern stations did manage 17c but there were frosts further south around the west midlands with temps dipping to -3c in quite a few places. I guess it's also about rounding up and down, some of the daytime temps that were showing 14c and 15c may have been closer to 14.5 and  or 15.5c, this can also make quite a big difference. 

The current cold snap is also nowhere near as bad as what was showing up in the models last week, so it's not going to significantly effect the final figure. 

Edited March 30, 2020 by snowray

[Summer Sun]

6.8c the 29th

1.1c above the 61 to 90 average
0.3c above the 81 to 10 average

_____________________________

Current high this month 6.9c the 18th, 25th, 26th, 27th & 28th
Current low this month 4.8c the 5th

[Sunny76]

I don’t care if this month ends up above average. It has still felt cold at times and even very cold, because of the wind. Lots of cool cloudy days in London also, last week was nice and sunny and probably the best week of the year so far.

I’m looking forward to some proper warm or hot weather to kick in soon. I don’t want a below average April. 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

13 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Again final figure 6.4...

Hopefully  

 

On 27/02/2020 at 13:15, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

6.4 C and 96.6 mm please 

 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 6.3C +0.2C above normal. Rainfall Unchanged.

[Roger J Smith]

As it appears likely that the month will finish in the 6's this might surprise you, but only one other year has ever seen its first three months in the 6's. That was 1846 (6.3, 6.4, 6.1) which later had the warmest June. 

If the month finishes on 6.4 or 6.3 it will also be the first time since 1783 when a year has started off in such a narrow range (that time it was 3.4, 3.3, 3.3). The Maunder (with its rounded off means) produced the only year with identical Jan, Feb and Mar CET when 1668 had three 5.0 values to start. In third place for least range among Jan, Feb and Mar CET values is 0.2 from 1764 which had 3.7, 3.8 and 3.9 tied with 1899 which started out 4.9, 5.1 and 5.1.  

If March is corrected down to 6.4 or lower, then the range from November to March of only 0.6 will tie the current record 0.6 from 1698-99 (3.4 to 4.0). The second lowest such range for these five months is 0.9 in 1787-88 (3.6 to 4.5) which was tied in 1922-23 (5.6 to 6.5). This extended winter can take the dubious prize of second place with a March CET of 6.5 or 6.6. 

Edited March 30, 2020 by Roger J Smith

[Scorcher]

2 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

I don’t care if this month ends up above average. It has still felt cold at times and even very cold, because of the wind. Lots of cool cloudy days in London also, last week was nice and sunny and probably the best week of the year so far.

I’m looking forward to some proper warm or hot weather to kick in soon. I don’t want a below average April. 

Maybe in the south but certainly hasn't felt cold in NW England- every day last week apart from Friday, when it was a good deal cooler, was sunny and very mild by day- 15-18C for virtually the whole week. I sat in the garden in a t-shirt for most of the week. Can't remember ever doing that in March before.

[Roger J Smith]

Ah good, we have "thanks" back as a like option. Now I can thank Summer Sun because I wasn't loving his information that much.

 

[Summer Sun]

6.8c the 30th

1.0c above the 61 to 90 average
0.3c above the 81 to 10 average

_____________________________

Current high this month 6.9c the 18th, 25th, 26th, 27th & 28th
Current low this month 4.8c the 5th

[Sunny76]

23 hours ago, Scorcher said:

Maybe in the south but certainly hasn't felt cold in NW England- every day last week apart from Friday, when it was a good deal cooler, was sunny and very mild by day- 15-18C for virtually the whole week. I sat in the garden in a t-shirt for most of the week. Can't remember ever doing that in March before.

That’s a bit of an exaggeration, but it depends where you are.

London was warmer in March 2003, and 2017, with temps around 17-19c for at least a week or so. 
 

This March hasn’t felt as warm, and not warm enough to sit around for long without having to wear a jacket or top of some sort.

Then again, I don’t feel the heat, and don’t walk around In a t - shirt until it’s at least 19c. The shade still feels cold and cloud cover also hampers the warmth at this time of the year.

 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

On 30/03/2020 at 13:20, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

Hopefully  

 

 

I might end up slightly higher at 6.5c!

[DAVID SNOW]

29 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

I might end up slightly higher at 6.5c!

Very possible, depends where in ends between 6.4 and 6.5.

[Scorcher]

8 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

That’s a bit of an exaggeration, but it depends where you are.

London was warmer in March 2003, and 2017, with temps around 17-19c for at least a week or so. 
 

This March hasn’t felt as warm, and not warm enough to sit around for long without having to wear a jacket or top of some sort.

Then again, I don’t feel the heat, and don’t walk around In a t - shirt until it’s at least 19c. The shade still feels cold and cloud cover also hampers the warmth at this time of the year.

 

You weren't in my garden last week- the NW was the best place for sunshine and warm temps last week. Real sun trap and I wasn't a bit cold in a t-shirt.

Might have been a different story out and about in the open but I've rarely sat out in March before.

 2012 had a warmer spell but I was out of the country for most of it.

Edited March 31, 2020 by Scorcher

[cheese]

On 30/03/2020 at 15:30, Scorcher said:

Maybe in the south but certainly hasn't felt cold in NW England- every day last week apart from Friday, when it was a good deal cooler, was sunny and very mild by day- 15-18C for virtually the whole week. I sat in the garden in a t-shirt for most of the week. Can't remember ever doing that in March before.

Same across the Pennines. It’s been a very pleasant month with little rain. The overall average temperature will be similar to February but that’s only because the nights have been colder - the days have been warmer; a reflection of how clear the skies have been. Last week we had one day with a low of 0C and a high of 17C.
 

It’s no March 2012 of course but that really is setting the bar pretty damn high..

 

 

Edited March 31, 2020 by cheese

[Roger J Smith]

From the table of entries, in preparation for the expected confirmation of a value in the mid 6 range ... these are all our forecasts that have 6 point something for CET ...

 

6.9 __ 77.0 __ Timmytour (17)

6.9 _ ------ __ sundog (35)

6.9 _ ------ __ Quicksilver1989 (60)

6.9 __ 69.0 __ DAVID SNOW (52)

6.8 __ 90.0 __ weather-history (38)

6.8 __ 64.3 __ 1990-2019 average

6.7 __ 70.0 __ JeffC (1)

6.7 _ ------ __ Dancerwithwings (28)

6.7 __ 80.0 __ Norrance (53)

6.7 _ 100.0 __ J10 (55)

6.6 __ 79.0 __ snowray (30)

6.6 _ 102.0 __ ThundersnowDays (L1-3)

6.6 __71.5 __ 1981-2010 average

6.5 _ 110.0 __ brmbrmcar (12)

6.5 __ 87.0 __ prolongedSnowLover (46)

6.5 _ 110.0 __ Stewfox (L1-1)

6.4 __ 96.6 __ Kirkcaldy Weather (31)

6.3 __ 86.0 __ Midlands Ice Age (47)

6.2 __ 45.0 __ Weather26 (7)

6.2 __ 72.0 __ Kentspur (44)

6.2 __ 68.0 __ BLAST FROM THE PAST (57,12.5)

6.1 _ 199.0 __ NeilN (15)

6.1 __ 82.0 __ Godber 1 (24)

6.0 __ 80.0 __ DiagonalRedLine (9)

[Summer Sun]

March confirmed as 6.7c

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

 

4 winners for March
 

@JeffC @Dancerwithwings @Norrance @J10

[Scorcher]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

March confirmed as 6.7c

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

 

4 winners for March
 

@JeffC @Dancerwithwings @Norrance @J10

Well well, what happened to the big downward corrections people were predicting? This also shows that you simply can't predict the correction at the end of the month- it's a different set of stations for the final figure! So predicting a correction is just pure guesswork.

It's also a much higher than what people were estimating this time last week- some were suggesting a finish of 6.2C. Very hard to get such big drops right at the end of a month, particularly a warming month like March.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Well that was a complete surprise!

[DAVID SNOW]

5 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Well that was a complete surprise!

Stewards enquiry required. ha.