March 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Man With Beard]

5 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

6.7c the 23rd

1.3c above the 61 to 90 average
0.4c above the 81 to 10 average

_____________________________

Current high this month 6.9c the 18th
Current low this month 4.8c the 5th

Low 6s finish looks likely considering the cold snap coming up. 

[Don]

42 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Low 6s finish looks likely considering the cold snap coming up. 

A decent chance now that March will be colder than January and February.

[Roger J Smith]

EWP stalled at 57 mm and unlikely to change very much in the dry outlook ahead. Will calculate some provisional scores based on 58 mm and let you know how the month and annual contest are going. Look for that by 10 p.m. ... as for the CET, most likely end point is 6.2 C. Will list the top contenders for the best combined forecasts too, on that estimate. 

[Roger J Smith]

Based on provisional of 58.2 mm (the decimal to avoid ties that might cause extra edit work later) the March scoring would be as follows (top 20 scores) ...

Rank __ Forecaster _______ Fcst ___ Score

01 _____ Reef ___________ 57.0 ___ 10.00

02 _____ The PIT ________ 60.0 ____ 9.83

03 _____ Roger J Smith ___ 56.2 ____ 9.66

04 _____ SLEETY ________54.0 ____ 9.48

05 _____ February1978 ____63.0 ____ 9.31

(06) _______ 1990-19 avg __64.3 ____ 9.23

06 _____ Mulzy __________ 65.0 ____ 9.14

07 _____ Thundery Wintry Sh 65.2 ____8.97

08 _____ Emmett Garland __ 66.0 ____8.80

09 _____ Twilight _________ 50.0 ____ 8.62

10 _____ B87 ____________ 50.0 (2) _ 8.54

11 _____ daniel* __________67.0 ____ 8.28

12 _____ Carl46Wrexham __ 49.0 ____ 8.11

13 _____ Blast from the Past_ 68.0 ____7.93

14 _____ Senior Ridge _____ 68.0 (2) _ 7.86

15 _____ DAVID SNOW ____ 69.0 ____7.59

16 _____ CheesepuffScott __ 69.2 ____ 7.42

17 _____ JeffC ___________ 70.0 ____ 7.24

18 _____ Dog Toffee _______70.1 ____ 7.07

19 _____ Weather26 _______45.0 ____ 6.90

(20) ______ 1981-2010 avg _ 71.5 ____ 6.81

20 _____ Kentspur ________ 72.0 ____ 6.72

===================================================

The annual scoring has yet to be finished in my file but I can see that the top two are likely to be Emmett Garland and Reef who were 2, 3 going into this month. They will be just about tied with the scoring differential being similar to this month's difference. Previous leader Robbie Garrett will probably drop a few spots with only a small additional score this month. Most of this month's top scorers were in the middle of the pack so look for the annual race to be quite tight after this month. Will post an update on that later. 

(note scoring for averages and consensus is scaled to the contest scoring and does not affect scores of the entrants)

Edited March 24, 2020 by Roger J Smith

[summer blizzard]

GFS has rowed back on precipitation here such that bar the chance of a weekend shower we should make it to Wednesday, two weeks without rainfall.

[Roger J Smith]

Provisional update on EWP contest, annual scoring (first 30, rest will be confirmed in final scoring summary)

... follows the March provisional scoring in previous post ...

RANK __ Forecaster _____ Total points ___ last month

_01 ____ Emmett Garland ____ 34.26 _____ 2nd

_02 ____ Reef _____________ 34.18 ______3rd

_03 ____ Twilight ___________ 27.55 ______T-14th

_04 ____ Robbie Garrett _____ 27.44 ______ 1st

_05 ____ Dr(S)No ___________26.90 ______ 5th

_06 ____ Godber 1 __________26.53 ______ 4th

_07 ____ mb018538 _________26.21 ______ 7th

_08 ____ Don ______________ 26.15 ______ 8th

_09 ____ Timmytour _________ 25.70 _____ 11th

_10 ____ Kentspur ___________25.65 _____T-14th

_11 ____ Thundery Wintry Shwrs 25.08 _____24th

_12 ____ Stationary Front _____ 25.07 _____ 6th

_13 ____ Jonboy ____________ 25.01 _____13th

_14 ____ Mulzy _____________ 24.91 _____ 30th

_15 ____ Dog Toffee _________ 24.61 _____ 19th

_16 ____ Roger J Smith ______ 23.88 _____ 35th

_17 ____ General Cluster _____ 23.43 _____ 22nd

_18 ____ Weather26 _________ 23.06 _____ 26th

_19 ____ daniel* _____________22.91 _____34th

_20 ____ J10 _______________ 22.40 ______6th

_21 ____ JeffC ______________ 22.25 _____33rd

_22 ____ Midlands Ice Age ____ 22.22 _____16th

_23 ____ DAVID SNOW _______21.79 _____36th

_24 ____ snowray ___________ 21.70 _____ 24th

_25 ____ Bobd29 ____________20.71 _____ 20th

_26 ____ SLEETY ___________ 20.37 _____ 42nd

_27 ____ Born From the Void ___20.29 _____ 29th

_28 ____ Radiating Dendrite ___ 19.83 _____ 10th (entered only 2)

_29 ____ brmbrmcar _________ 19.78 _____ T-17th

_30 ____ Mr Maunder ________ 19.46 _____ 31st 

(best combined forecast for March is likely to be that of Blast from the Past, 6.2 C and 68 mm).

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Edited March 25, 2020 by Roger J Smith

[mb018538]

Pah, my first real bust of the competition. Was looking good last week as the CET approached 7c, and with March a warming month you'd usually expect a rise as the month progresses....but a cold final week is really going to knock it back. Let's try again in April!

[Summer Sun]

6.8c the 24th

1.3c above the 61 to 90 average
0.4c above the 81 to 10 average

_____________________________

Current high this month 6.9c the 18th
Current low this month 4.8c the 5th

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 6.2C +0.4C above average. Rainfall unchanged.

A rise today then a slow download drift to be close to average however the cold spell seems to getting edged further east each run so could still sneak a slightly above average yet.

[DR(S)NO]

Should’ve kept that 6.0c guess rather than putting up to 7.0c

[Summer Sun]

6.9c the 25th

1.4c above the 61 to 90 average
0.5c above the 81 to 10 average

_____________________________

Current high this month 6.9c the 18th & 25th
Current low this month 4.8c the 5th

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 6.4C +0.6C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

[Summer Sun]

6.9c the 26th

1.4c above the 61 to 90 average
0.5c above the 81 to 10 average

_____________________________

Current high this month 6.9c the 18th, 25th & 26th
Current low this month 4.8c the 5th

[feb1991blizzard]

On 25/03/2020 at 21:45, DR(S)NO said:

Should’ve kept that 6.0c guess rather than putting up to 7.0c

not necessarily, could still finish on 6.5 in which case it wouldn't make any difference, any higher a bit of a stretch though.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 6.4C +0.5C above normal. Rainfall unchanged at 34.7mm 54.5% of the monthly average

[Scorcher]

5 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

6.9c the 26th

1.4c above the 61 to 90 average
0.5c above the 81 to 10 average

_____________________________

Current high this month 6.9c the 18th, 25th & 26th
Current low this month 4.8c the 5th

Time is running out for this to drop much now, it may end up higher than many people were predicting a few days back. The last 3 days have been milder than initially forecast.

[DAVID SNOW]

Final figure after corrections 6.4.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 6.4C still +0.4C above normal rainfall unchanged.

Shouldn't change much from there so anything between 6.1C to 6.3C for us. So basically an average month

Edited March 28, 2020 by The PIT

[snowray]

No update today?

[Roger J Smith]

They did update and it was

6.9 to the 27th

1.3 above the 1961-90 normal value.

0.5 above the 1981-2010 normal value.

(matches the previous high mark set on 18th, 25th and 26th)

and EWP unchanged at 57 mm. 

 

Edited March 29, 2020 by Roger J Smith

[Summer Sun]

6.9c the 28th

1.2c above the 61 to 90 average
0.4c above the 81 to 10 average

_____________________________

Current high this month 6.9c the 18th, 25th, 26th, 27th & 28th
Current low this month 4.8c the 5th

[snowray]

Amazing still on 6.9c, thought them frosts we had would have knocked it back down by now.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

There will be a marked downward adjustment at the end of the month with all the cold mornings!

[reef]

16 minutes ago, snowray said:

Amazing still on 6.9c, thought them frosts we had would have knocked it back down by now.

Maxima were sufficiently high to balance the cooler nights out. The 24th and 25th had mean max temps of 15.3C and 15.5C for example.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield edges down to 6.3C +0.3C above normal. Rainfall unchanged. So an average very dry month coming up