NW Weather Predicting Competition

[Mapantz]

1 hour ago, TomSE12 said:

I don't think that 21c (70f) was recorded or exceeded in the South East Region, over the Weekend but I stand to be corrected, of course.

According to WO, Northolt, Heathrow and St James's park all managed 22°C.

[B87]

Bedford managed 21.0c.  Does the temperature need to reach 21c or 70f (21.1c)? SJP recorded 22.0c, while Heathrow and Northolt had 21.7c.

Meteociel - Climatologie mensuelle de Bedford ( United Kingdom )

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

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Résumé mensuel des observations météo ( températures minimales et maximales, précipitations et ensoleillement) de la station Bedford ( United Kingdom )

 

Edited April 6, 2020 by B87

[Tom Quintavalle]

Much thanks to MAPANTZ and B87 ^^^^^, above.

So, 21c (70f) was reached at Bedford, on Sunday 6th April. Below the link to the Meteociel Site, depicting the Temperature record for Bedford, for that Date:

 

Meteociel - Climatologie mensuelle de Bedford ( United Kingdom )

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

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Résumé mensuel des observations météo ( températures minimales et maximales, précipitations et ensoleillement) de la station Bedford ( United Kingdom )

CHEESEPUFFSCOTT had a near miss with his prediction of Monday 6th April, just a Day out.

Below, is CheesepuffScott's prediction entry, made on February 14th.

"CATEGORY 4: (exact date that 21c (70f) is first recorded, in the S.E.Region) - 6th April "

Listed below, are details of the Scoring Format:

"CATEGORY 4: -  Predict the FIRST Date that 21c (70f), is recorded in the South East Region.

If your prediction correspond to the exact Date, you will receive £10 of "Virtual" Monetary Credits. Should your prediction be 24 Hours, either side of the exact Date, you will receive £2.50 of "Virtual" Monetary Credits."

CheesepuffScott therefore receives £2.50 of "Virtual" Monetary Credits.

In a short while, I will Post up the Current Standings Table, in the NW WEATHER PREDICTING COMPETITION, after Category 4.

Regards,

Tom.   

 

[Tom Quintavalle]

Below, are the Current Standings in the NW WEATHER PREDICTING COMPETITION, after the Result of Category 4:

                                                    NW WEATHER PREDICTING COMPETITION

       ENTRANT                          CAT.1     CAT.2      CAT.3     CAT.4      "V"/C TOTAL  

       Lottiekent                          20.00                                         X               20.00

       Daniel                                  5.00                                          X                5.00

      John Stevens                       5.00                                         X                 5.00

      Kirk/Weather                        5.00                                         X                 5.00

      CheesepuffScott                     X                                        2.50               2.50

      AntonyBR7(Guest)                 X                                           X                  NIL

      B87                                           X                                           X                  NIL

      Bobd29                                    X                                           X                  NIL

      CheesepuffScott                     X                                           X                  NIL

      Claret047                                 X                                           X                  NIL

      Classylady                               X                                           X                 NIL

      Febblizzard1991                      X                                           X                 NIL

      Fiftyshadesofsnow                 X                                           X                 NIL

      Kentspur                                  X                                           X                 NIL

      Lewis028                                  X                                           X                 NIL

      Seaside 60                               X                                           X                 NIL

      Septic Peg(Guest)                   X                                           X                 NIL

      TomSE12                                  X                                           X                 NIL  

Just the one change after Category 4 then, CHEESEPUFFSCOTT moves into 5th, after his "near miss".

LOTTIEKENT has a decent lead over, DANIEL, JOHN STEVENS, KIRKCALDY WEATHER and CHEESEPUFFSCOTT.

Later on Today, I will Post up details of the situation in CATEGORY 2: - Predict the exact and final date, of the last named North Atlantic Storm, and it's name, to enter the Shipping Forecast areas. Plus in which area will it's lowest central Pressure, be recorded. 4 parts to this Category ((A). Date. (B).Storm Name. (C).Shipping Forecast Area, and (D). Value of lowest central pressure attained, in millibars).

You will receive £20 of "Virtual" Monetary Credits, for each exact prediction. You will receive £5 of "Virtual" Monetary Credits, if your prediction is within 24 Hours of (A) Date, the adjoining Shipping.Forecast area (C), and within 5 millibars, either side, of (D)  Value of lowest central pressure attained.

**NB** -  QUOTE -   "As I stated on February 27th, I will be counting JORGE as ELLEN. The Irish Met Office have normally been quick off the mark at naming N.Atlantic Storms, this Winter. But the Spanish Met Office beat them to it this time, mind you still don't fully understand why they had to get involved. The effects of this Storm were bad enough again, for the UK and Ireland.

With that in mind, if "ELLEN" is the last named Storm of the Season, those Entrants that predicted this name will receive £10 of "Virtual" Credits. I don't want to be considered a cheat, as I selected ELLEN, so will only award half of the "Virtual"Credits, on offer." 

With the cut-off Date for Category 2 being Thursday 30th April, it's quite conceivable that ELLEN (JORGE), will be the last named N.Atlantic Storm, of the Season.

The above scenario is looking more likely now, with High Pressure in charge near our Shores, for the foreseeable. After a pretty Stormy Autumn/Winter, the Atlantic "died a death", a few Weeks ago.

But you never know what might happen, so the cut-off Date for Category 2 remains at, Thursday 30th April.

The situation at the moment regarding Category 2, reads as follows:

(A). Date - 1st MARCH. (B).Storm Name - ELLEN.  (C).Shipping Forecast Area -  **HEBRIDES**.  

**NB** - In an earlier Post I did suggest the Shipping Forecast Area was FAIR ISLE but having looked at it more closely, you can clearly see that it was, HEBRIDES.

(D).Lowest central pressure attained - 954 mbs. 

Below, is the FAX Chart for Midnight on Sunday, 1st March.

Details of which Entrants are in the "driving seat" in Category 2, later on Today.

Regards,

Tom.   

 

[Tom Quintavalle]

Below are a list of Entrants, best placed in Category 2, if ELLEN (JORGE) is the last named N.Atlantic Storm, of the Season.(Cut-Off Date 30th April) - Predict the exact and final date, of the last named North Atlantic Storm, and it's name, to enter the Shipping Forecast areas. Plus in which area will it's lowest central Pressure, be recorded. 4 parts to this Category ((A). Date. (B).Storm Name. (C).Shipping Forecast Area, and (D). Value of lowest central pressure attained, in millibars).  This list also shows the amount of "virtual" Monetary Credits gained if ELLEN (JORGE), is the last N.Atlantic Storm, before the "cut -off" date, of 30th April.

A) - DATE - (1st March) -  No Entrant.

B) - STORM NAME - (Ellen) - ANTONYBR7, FIFTYSHADESOFSNOW, SEPTICPEG, TOMSE12.

Each of the above Entrants  will receive £10 of "virtual" Monetary Credits.

C) - SHIPPING FORECAST AREA - (Hebrides) - No Entrant.

D) - VALUE OF LOWEST CENTRAL PRESSURE - (954 Millibars) - SEASIDE60. £20 of "virtual" Monetary Credits. 

Below, are a list of Entrants who are close enough with their predictions in Category 2, to qualify for a "concessionary" amount of "virtual" Monetary Credits, should there be no further N.Atlantic Storms before the cut-off Date, of 30th April. This list also shows the amount of concessionary, "virtual" Monetary Credits gained if ELLEN (JORGE), is the last N.Atlantic Storm, before the "cut -off" date, of 30th April.

A) - DATE - (1st March)  - No Entrant. 

B) - No  concessionary, "virtual" Monetary Credits awarded, in Part B of Category 2.

C) - SHIPPING FORECAST AREA - (Hebrides) - ANTONYBR7 (Bailey), B87 (Bailey), BOBD29 (Bailey),                              CHEESEPUFFSCOTT (Rockall), JOHN STEVENS (Bailey), LEWIS028 (Bailey), SEASIDE60 (Rockall).

Each of the above Entrants will receive £5 of  "Virtual" Monetary Credits. 

D) - VALUE OF LOWEST CENTRAL PRESSURE - (954 mbs) - ANTONYBR7 (958mbs), CLARET047 (953 mbs),                  FIFTYSHADESOFSNOW (955 mbs), LEWIS028 (956 mbs), SEPTICPEG (950 mbs), TOMSE12 (955 mbs).  

Each of the above Entrants will receive £5 of  "Virtual" Monetary Credits.

Regards,

Tom.    

[seaside 60]

Who would have guessed that 25c would have been reached by 10th April, even if it wasn't in our area but Bude wouldn't have been my first guess either.

We reached the stunning heights of 14c here yesterday but lovely day though.