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Apologies, for my no show last Night but it was Family Film Night, and it would've been rude for me to start using my Computer. 

In a short while, I will be sending out PM's to Bobd29, Daniel, Febblizzard1991, Fifty Shades of Snow, Kentspur and Lottiekent, for a little bit of extra predicting. This mainly concerns, Category 2.

Regards,

Tom.  :hi:

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I have now sent out those PM's and thanks to Bobd29 and Feblizzard1991, for your prompt replies.

I just want to elaborate on and adjust the Scoring System, for each Category.

CATEGORY 1: Predict the next Date of "Settling Snow", in the S.E. Region. Just a dusting will count but NOT Hail.

Should your prediction correspond to the exact next Date of "Settling Snow" in the S.E.Region, you will receive £10 of "Virtual" Monetary Credits. Should your prediction be 24 Hours either side of that Date, you will receive £2.50 of "Virtual" Monetary Credits.

**NB** - KENTSPUR - has predicted no "Settling Snow" and should he be correct in his prediction, will receive £10 of "Virtual" Monetary Credits.

I will apply a bit of Climatology to FiftyShadesofSnow's prediction of 15th Jan.2021. I will impose a "cut-off" date of 30th April, for "Settling Snow", in the S.E.Region. Although historically not unheard of, should "Settling Snow" not have been recorded by 30th April, its highly unlikely to occur after, this Date. I don't want the Competition to be unresolved, by the end of Spring.

Therefore, should there have been no "Settling Snow" by 30th April, FiftyShadesofSnow will receive £10 of "Virtual" Monetary Credits.

CATEGORY 2: - 4 parts to this Category (Date/Storm Name/S/Forecast Area, Value of central pressure in millibars). You will receive £5 of "Virtual" Monetary Credits, for each correct part.

CATEGORY 3: -  Predict the exact Date and Temp. (to the nearest degree Celsius), of the last AIR Frost of the Season, in the South East Region. 

If your predictions correspond to the exact Date and Temperature, you will receive £10 of "Virtual" Monetary Credits for each correct part. Should your Date prediction be 24 Hours, either side of the exact Date, you will receive £2.50 of "Virtual" Monetary Credits. Should your Temperature prediction be within 0.5c, either side of the exact Temperature, you will receive £2.50 of "Virtual" Monetary Credits.

CATEGORY 4: -  Predict the FIRST Date that 21c (70f), is recorded in the South East Region.

If your prediction correspond to the exact Date, you will receive £10 of "Virtual" Monetary Credits. Should your prediction be 24 Hours, either side of the exact Date, you will receive £2.50 of "Virtual" Monetary Credits.

A little later, I will put on my Bookmaker's hat, and create a "Book" (formulate Betting Odds, for each Entrants entry).

You will be allocated "Virtual" Stakes of £10. £5 to place on your own prediction and £5 to place on one other Entrant's predictions. Any "Virtual" Returns gained from these "Virtual" Wagers, will be added to any "Virtual" Monetary Credits.

The Entrant that has accrued the most "Virtual" Monetary Credits, shall be deemed the Winner.

More details on this part of the Competition, later.

Regards,

Tom.  :hi:

 

 

Edited by TomSE12

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You would have had me as well but my computer developed a hard drive fault and had to be repaired over the weekend before I could have entered.

Mind you would have been total guesswork. 😀

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2 hours ago, seaside 60 said:

You would have had me as well but my computer developed a hard drive fault and had to be repaired over the weekend before I could have entered.

Mind you would have been total guesswork. 😀

As that seems to be a perfectly good reason for not making the Entry deadline, I've invited Seaside 60 into the Competition and will not impose a penalty forfeit.

Therefore, I will wait until the Morning to post up some Betting Odds, on each Entrants chamce of winning the Competition.

Forgot to mention, I will also apply a cut-off Date for Category 2, which like Category 1 will be 30th April. More details on that, Tomorrow.

Regards,

Tom.  :hi:

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Just to put it in here as well @TomSE12 - 955mb central pressure of the last named storm.

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CAT 1  NONE

CAT2   25TH MARCH FRANCIS  ROCKALL  954MB

CAT 3  25TH APRIL  -1C

CAT 4  10TH APRIL

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5 minutes ago, seaside 60 said:

CAT 1  NONE

CAT2   25TH MARCH FRANCIS  ROCKALL  954MB

CAT 3  25TH APRIL  -1C

CAT 4  10TH APRIL

I was thinking of going for the 8th December 2020 before but changed my mind and went March instead!!

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20 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I was thinking of going for the 8th December 2020 before but changed my mind and went March instead!!

Tom did say 30th April cut off date otherwise I was going for next year.

Trouble is a dusting is totally possible for the next 2 months, esp up on a hill early hours back edge front type, so really impossible to guess lol..

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3 minutes ago, seaside 60 said:

Tom did say 30th April cut off date otherwise I was going for next year.

Trouble is a dusting is totally possible for the next 2 months, esp up on a hill early hours back edge front type, so really impossible to guess lol..

Oh right, didn't think there was a cut off date for category 1.

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24 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Oh right, didn't think there was a cut off date for category 1.

If you look further up on this page he mentions it there (19 hrs ago) above one of your posts.

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4 hours ago, seaside 60 said:

CAT 1  NONE

CAT2   25TH MARCH FRANCIS  ROCKALL  954MB

CAT 3  25TH APRIL  -1C

CAT 4  10TH APRIL

Thanks for your Entry, Ray.

As I stated, yours was a perfectly legitimate reason for missing the Entry deadline.

Your predictions, are all entered up and I can't see that you've gained any advantage.

I've decided to scrap the idea, of a Betting side to the Competition. I shall save that for my Horse Racing Competitions. I think a "lucky punt", could skew the Result.

But for fun, I will create a "Book" (formulate Betting Odds). Instead, I will increase the value of Monetary Credits, for correct predictions. More on that later.

As seaside 60 states, I did Post earlier about applying a cut-off Date.

Quote: - 

"I will apply a bit of Climatology to FiftyShadesofSnow's prediction of 15th Jan.2021. I will impose a "cut-off" date of 30th April, for "Settling Snow", in the S.E.Region. Although historically not unheard of, should "Settling Snow" not have been recorded by 30th April, its highly unlikely to occur after, this Date. I don't want the Competition to be unresolved, by the end of Spring.

Therefore, should there have been no "Settling Snow" by 30th April, FiftyShadesofSnow will receive £10 of "Virtual" Monetary Credits."

In a short while, I will Post up the adjusted Credit values for correct predictions.

Regards,

Tom.    :hi:

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As stated in my previous Post, I have scrapped the idea of a Betting side to the Competition but will instead, increase the value of "virtual" monetary Credits, for correct predictions.

CATEGORY 1: Predict the next Date of "Settling Snow", in the S.E. Region. Just a dusting will count but NOT Hail. I will apply a cut-off Date of 30th April. Although "Settling Snow", is not unheard of after that Date, it's highly unlikely.

Should your prediction correspond to the exact next Date of "Settling Snow" in the S.E.Region, you will receive £20 of "Virtual" Monetary Credits. Should your prediction be 24 Hours either side of that Date, you will receive £5.00 

**NB** - B87,FIFTYSHADESOFSNOW, KENTSPUR and SEASIDE 60 - have predicted no "Settling Snow", before the cut-off Date, of 30th April. Should they be correct in their predictions, they will receive £20 of "Virtual" Monetary Credits.

CATEGORY 2: - 4 parts to this Category ((A). Date. (B).Storm Name. (C).Shipping Forecast Area, and (D). Value of lowest central pressure attained, in millibars).

You will receive £20 of "Virtual" Monetary Credits, for each exact prediction. You will receive £5 of "Virtual" Monetary Credits, if your prediction is within 24 Hours of (A) Date, the adjoining Shipping.Forecast area (C), and within 5 millibars, either side, of (D)  Value of lowest central pressure attained.

CATEGORY 3: -  Predict the exact Date and Temp. (to the nearest degree Celsius), of the last AIR Frost of the Season, in the South East Region. 

If your predictions correspond to the exact Date and Temperature, you will receive £20 of "Virtual" Monetary Credits for each correct part. Should your Date prediction be 24 Hours, either side of the exact Date, you will receive £5 of "Virtual" Monetary Credits. Should your Temperature prediction be within 0.5c, either side of the exact Temperature, you will receive £5 of "Virtual" Monetary Credits.

CATEGORY 4: -  Predict the FIRST Date that 21c (70f), is recorded/exceeded, in the South East Region.

If your prediction corresponds to the exact Date, you will receive £20 of "Virtual" Monetary Credits. Should your prediction be 24 Hours, either side of the exact Date, you will receive £5 of "Virtual" Monetary Credits.

The Entrant that accrues the largest amount of Credits, shall be deemed the Competition Winner.

Right, I think I've "tinkered" with the Format for this Competition more times than Claudio Ranieri "tinkered" with the line-up, for his Chelsea Team.

But I'm happy with it now and the above, is the definitive Format for the Scoring System!!

I think there's enough in the Format now, to come up with a Result.

Tomorrow, I'll Post up some Betting Odds for each Entrant, on the likelihood of them winning the Competition.

As Peter Snow used to say about his "Swingometer" -       image.png.d63b12bf2e8b974cef1719b978bd2f4d.png                                                                                on General Election Results Night. "It's just a bit of fun."

Regards,

Tom.  :hi:

Edited by TomSE12

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On 20/02/2020 at 13:56, John Stevens said:

Well, just maybe, just maybe.... category 1 may be “settled” next week....

Hi J.S.,

Yes it's a definite possibility, as the omnipresent Azores High finally loosens its grip and edges slightly further away, to the S.W.

Meanwhile, Category 2 (exact date and name of last named Storm to enter Shipping Forecast area), looks to have plenty more mileage in it, yet. The next named Storm (ELLEN), could well be "on the cards", for Monday. It's really interesting watching the Forecast Model Runs and noting these Lows form in the Baroclinic Zone, and "surfing" the area between the Azores High and those bitter cold "uppers", spilling out of Eastern Canada. 

                    UKMO (t72)                                               ECM (t72)

image.thumb.png.0f2206d94dd4c1cee7873a1224e7e3f2.png image.thumb.png.4e3556bd1eed9d8027099ffc4da75bcd.png 

Perhaps swiftly followed by FRANCIS at t144. if ECM have called this right.

image.thumb.png.176b4b7ef17952f0c09f8d31efa1c1ab.png

My prediction of ELLEN as the last named Storm, is starting to look distinctly premature!! :oldangry:

Regards,

Tom.  :hi: 

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