NW Weather Predicting Competition

[Tom Quintavalle]

I have now sent out those PM's and thanks to Bobd29 and Feblizzard1991, for your prompt replies.

I just want to elaborate on and adjust the Scoring System, for each Category.

CATEGORY 1: Predict the next Date of "Settling Snow", in the S.E. Region. Just a dusting will count but NOT Hail.

Should your prediction correspond to the exact next Date of "Settling Snow" in the S.E.Region, you will receive £10 of "Virtual" Monetary Credits. Should your prediction be 24 Hours either side of that Date, you will receive £2.50 of "Virtual" Monetary Credits.

**NB** - KENTSPUR - has predicted no "Settling Snow" and should he be correct in his prediction, will receive £10 of "Virtual" Monetary Credits.

I will apply a bit of Climatology to FiftyShadesofSnow's prediction of 15th Jan.2021. I will impose a "cut-off" date of 30th April, for "Settling Snow", in the S.E.Region. Although historically not unheard of, should "Settling Snow" not have been recorded by 30th April, its highly unlikely to occur after, this Date. I don't want the Competition to be unresolved, by the end of Spring.

Therefore, should there have been no "Settling Snow" by 30th April, FiftyShadesofSnow will receive £10 of "Virtual" Monetary Credits.

CATEGORY 2: - 4 parts to this Category (Date/Storm Name/S/Forecast Area, Value of central pressure in millibars). You will receive £5 of "Virtual" Monetary Credits, for each correct part.

CATEGORY 3: -  Predict the exact Date and Temp. (to the nearest degree Celsius), of the last AIR Frost of the Season, in the South East Region. 

If your predictions correspond to the exact Date and Temperature, you will receive £10 of "Virtual" Monetary Credits for each correct part. Should your Date prediction be 24 Hours, either side of the exact Date, you will receive £2.50 of "Virtual" Monetary Credits. Should your Temperature prediction be within 0.5c, either side of the exact Temperature, you will receive £2.50 of "Virtual" Monetary Credits.

CATEGORY 4: -  Predict the FIRST Date that 21c (70f), is recorded in the South East Region.

If your prediction correspond to the exact Date, you will receive £10 of "Virtual" Monetary Credits. Should your prediction be 24 Hours, either side of the exact Date, you will receive £2.50 of "Virtual" Monetary Credits.

A little later, I will put on my Bookmaker's hat, and create a "Book" (formulate Betting Odds, for each Entrants entry).

You will be allocated "Virtual" Stakes of £10. £5 to place on your own prediction and £5 to place on one other Entrant's predictions. Any "Virtual" Returns gained from these "Virtual" Wagers, will be added to any "Virtual" Monetary Credits.

The Entrant that has accrued the most "Virtual" Monetary Credits, shall be deemed the Winner.

More details on this part of the Competition, later.

Regards,

Tom.  

 

 

Edited February 17, 2020 by TomSE12

[seaside 60]

You would have had me as well but my computer developed a hard drive fault and had to be repaired over the weekend before I could have entered.

Mind you would have been total guesswork. 

[Tom Quintavalle]

2 hours ago, seaside 60 said:

You would have had me as well but my computer developed a hard drive fault and had to be repaired over the weekend before I could have entered.

Mind you would have been total guesswork. 

As that seems to be a perfectly good reason for not making the Entry deadline, I've invited Seaside 60 into the Competition and will not impose a penalty forfeit.

Therefore, I will wait until the Morning to post up some Betting Odds, on each Entrants chamce of winning the Competition.

Forgot to mention, I will also apply a cut-off Date for Category 2, which like Category 1 will be 30th April. More details on that, Tomorrow.

Regards,

Tom.  

[feb1991blizzard]

Just to put it in here as well @TomSE12 - 955mb central pressure of the last named storm.

[seaside 60]

CAT 1  NONE

CAT2   25TH MARCH FRANCIS  ROCKALL  954MB

CAT 3  25TH APRIL  -1C

CAT 4  10TH APRIL

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, seaside 60 said:

CAT 1  NONE

CAT2   25TH MARCH FRANCIS  ROCKALL  954MB

CAT 3  25TH APRIL  -1C

CAT 4  10TH APRIL

I was thinking of going for the 8th December 2020 before but changed my mind and went March instead!!

[seaside 60]

20 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I was thinking of going for the 8th December 2020 before but changed my mind and went March instead!!

Tom did say 30th April cut off date otherwise I was going for next year.

Trouble is a dusting is totally possible for the next 2 months, esp up on a hill early hours back edge front type, so really impossible to guess lol..

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, seaside 60 said:

Tom did say 30th April cut off date otherwise I was going for next year.

Trouble is a dusting is totally possible for the next 2 months, esp up on a hill early hours back edge front type, so really impossible to guess lol..

Oh right, didn't think there was a cut off date for category 1.

[seaside 60]

24 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Oh right, didn't think there was a cut off date for category 1.

If you look further up on this page he mentions it there (19 hrs ago) above one of your posts.

[Tom Quintavalle]

4 hours ago, seaside 60 said:

CAT 1  NONE

CAT2   25TH MARCH FRANCIS  ROCKALL  954MB

CAT 3  25TH APRIL  -1C

CAT 4  10TH APRIL

Thanks for your Entry, Ray.

As I stated, yours was a perfectly legitimate reason for missing the Entry deadline.

Your predictions, are all entered up and I can't see that you've gained any advantage.

I've decided to scrap the idea, of a Betting side to the Competition. I shall save that for my Horse Racing Competitions. I think a "lucky punt", could skew the Result.

But for fun, I will create a "Book" (formulate Betting Odds). Instead, I will increase the value of Monetary Credits, for correct predictions. More on that later.

As seaside 60 states, I did Post earlier about applying a cut-off Date.

Quote: - 

"I will apply a bit of Climatology to FiftyShadesofSnow's prediction of 15th Jan.2021. I will impose a "cut-off" date of 30th April, for "Settling Snow", in the S.E.Region. Although historically not unheard of, should "Settling Snow" not have been recorded by 30th April, its highly unlikely to occur after, this Date. I don't want the Competition to be unresolved, by the end of Spring.

Therefore, should there have been no "Settling Snow" by 30th April, FiftyShadesofSnow will receive £10 of "Virtual" Monetary Credits."

In a short while, I will Post up the adjusted Credit values for correct predictions.

Regards,

Tom.    

[Tom Quintavalle]

As stated in my previous Post, I have scrapped the idea of a Betting side to the Competition but will instead, increase the value of "virtual" monetary Credits, for correct predictions.

CATEGORY 1: Predict the next Date of "Settling Snow", in the S.E. Region. Just a dusting will count but NOT Hail. I will apply a cut-off Date of 30th April. Although "Settling Snow", is not unheard of after that Date, it's highly unlikely.

Should your prediction correspond to the exact next Date of "Settling Snow" in the S.E.Region, you will receive £20 of "Virtual" Monetary Credits. Should your prediction be 24 Hours either side of that Date, you will receive £5.00 

**NB** - B87,FIFTYSHADESOFSNOW, KENTSPUR and SEASIDE 60 - have predicted no "Settling Snow", before the cut-off Date, of 30th April. Should they be correct in their predictions, they will receive £20 of "Virtual" Monetary Credits.

CATEGORY 2: - 4 parts to this Category ((A). Date. (B).Storm Name. (C).Shipping Forecast Area, and (D). Value of lowest central pressure attained, in millibars).

You will receive £20 of "Virtual" Monetary Credits, for each exact prediction. You will receive £5 of "Virtual" Monetary Credits, if your prediction is within 24 Hours of (A) Date, the adjoining Shipping.Forecast area (C), and within 5 millibars, either side, of (D)  Value of lowest central pressure attained.

CATEGORY 3: -  Predict the exact Date and Temp. (to the nearest degree Celsius), of the last AIR Frost of the Season, in the South East Region. 

If your predictions correspond to the exact Date and Temperature, you will receive £20 of "Virtual" Monetary Credits for each correct part. Should your Date prediction be 24 Hours, either side of the exact Date, you will receive £5 of "Virtual" Monetary Credits. Should your Temperature prediction be within 0.5c, either side of the exact Temperature, you will receive £5 of "Virtual" Monetary Credits.

CATEGORY 4: -  Predict the FIRST Date that 21c (70f), is recorded/exceeded, in the South East Region.

If your prediction corresponds to the exact Date, you will receive £20 of "Virtual" Monetary Credits. Should your prediction be 24 Hours, either side of the exact Date, you will receive £5 of "Virtual" Monetary Credits.

The Entrant that accrues the largest amount of Credits, shall be deemed the Competition Winner.

Right, I think I've "tinkered" with the Format for this Competition more times than Claudio Ranieri "tinkered" with the line-up, for his Chelsea Team.

But I'm happy with it now and the above, is the definitive Format for the Scoring System!!

I think there's enough in the Format now, to come up with a Result.

Tomorrow, I'll Post up some Betting Odds for each Entrant, on the likelihood of them winning the Competition.

As Peter Snow used to say about his "Swingometer" -                                                                                      on General Election Results Night. "It's just a bit of fun."

Regards,

Tom.  

Edited February 18, 2020 by TomSE12

[John Stevens]

Well, just maybe, just maybe.... category 1 may be “settled” next week....

[Tom Quintavalle]

On 20/02/2020 at 13:56, John Stevens said:

Well, just maybe, just maybe.... category 1 may be “settled” next week....

Hi J.S.,

Yes it's a definite possibility, as the omnipresent Azores High finally loosens its grip and edges slightly further away, to the S.W.

Meanwhile, Category 2 (exact date and name of last named Storm to enter Shipping Forecast area), looks to have plenty more mileage in it, yet. The next named Storm (ELLEN), could well be "on the cards", for Monday. It's really interesting watching the Forecast Model Runs and noting these Lows form in the Baroclinic Zone, and "surfing" the area between the Azores High and those bitter cold "uppers", spilling out of Eastern Canada. 

                    UKMO (t72)                                               ECM (t72)

  

Perhaps swiftly followed by FRANCIS at t144. if ECM have called this right.

My prediction of ELLEN as the last named Storm, is starting to look distinctly premature!! 

Regards,

Tom.   

[seaside 60]

Are many of us going to loose CAT 1 almost straight away this thurs or sat.

By the way what and who is proof of settling snow in an area and is it a pic with snow that lasts for 5 mins or something.

[John Stevens]

If the forecast tonight comes off (never known the bbc app to be accurate here before mind!) I might get a photo if there’s anything left and there might  a winner in category 1 @TomSE12....

Edited February 25, 2020 by John Stevens

[Tom Quintavalle]

33 minutes ago, John Stevens said:

If the forecast tonight comes off (never known the bbc app to be accurate here before mind!) I might get a photo if there’s anything left and there might  a winner in category 1 @TomSE12....

Hi John,

I have been keeping an eye on things, whilst getting my Cheltenham Horse Racing Competition, off the ground.

I will comment on the Competition and the situation in Category 1, in terms of Entrants' predictions, once I've looked at the 00z Overnight Model Runs.

Regards,

Tom.   

[Tom Quintavalle]

Morning all,

I just want to reiterate, that the predicting Competition relates to Weather conditions recorded in the South East and East Anglia Region:

Obviously, the Orange area.

After a bit of a lull since Storm Dennis,, in Category 2 (Last named N.Atlantic Storm, etc)  things look set to get a bit lively again over the Weekend.

Below, is the take on the Synoptics at t96, from the "Big 3":

                           ECM                                                                   GFS 

           

                         UKMO

All in agreement there, that we'll likely to see a vigorous Low form, and track towards Scotland. Lowest central Pressure looks to be between 965 and 955 mbs, with Shipping Forecast areas, Bailey, Rockall, Hebrides and Malin, seemingly in the "firing line". 

So, will this be when ELLEN finally makes an appearance but will she be the last named Storm? Possibly not but remember, the "cut off" Date for the last named N.Atlantic Storm, is the 30th April. 

Meanwhile, in Category 1, some slight settling of Snow possible, starting later Tonight. All Forecast Models agree, that a shallow wave, will run across S.England with some Snowfall likely on its northern edge. Some temporary settling could occur over the Chilterns and in the north of S.E.England.

Further on, ECM suggests a similar scenario to the above, with another couple of shallow waves running across S.England.

We don't need to worry about Categories 3 and 4, just yet.

Regards,

Tom.  

[Tom Quintavalle]

On 24/02/2020 at 15:05, seaside 60 said:

Are many of us going to loose CAT 1 almost straight away this thurs or sat.

By the way what and who is proof of settling snow in an area and is it a pic with snow that lasts for 5 mins or something.

Hi seaside 60,

Thanks for your query.

We have many "on the ground" observers, in the S.E./East Anglia Region, who I'm sure will have cameras poised to take a pic of some settling Snow, no matter how temporary it is.

When I "hosted" the S.E.Region Snow Depth Cup, back in 2012, we had many Members sending in images of their Snow Depths, with six inch Rulers sticking out of Snow. 

I would appreciate it, if any S,E./East Anglia Members reading this could send in images of any settling Snow they experience, during the duration of this Competition.

The Cut-Off Date for Category 1 (the next Date of settling Snow in the S.E./East Anglia Region), is 30th April. 

If NO Settling Snow has been recorded in the Region, by that Date, a NIL Result will be declared.

This will mean that, B87(15th Dec), FIFTYSHADESOFSNOW((15th Jan 2021), KENTSPUR (No Settling Snow) and SEASIDE 60 (None), will have made a correct prediction and receive £20 of "Virtual" Monetary Credits.

Regards,

Tom.  

 

[seaside 60]

Silly point how can the south east go so far to the west and north west, surely the south east cant be any further west than London.

Anyways apart from that point it must surely snow somewhere "even in the SOUTH EAST south east" lol over the next few days.

[Tom Quintavalle]

Morning all,

Well we've got a result in Category 1. This Video clip from S.E.Regional Member Ben Lewis, of Ampthill in Bedfordshire. So, the Category 1 Result is as follows:

Predict the next Date of "Settling Snow", in the S.E. Region. Just a dusting will count but NOT Hail.

CATEGORY 1: - Thursday 27th February. S.E.REGION LOCATION: - Ampthill, Bedfordshire.

Those Competitions Entrants who have predicted the exact Date, will receive £20 in "Virtual" Credits. Those Entrants who predicted a Date either side of Today, will receive £5 in "Virtual" Credits.

Below, is the photographic evidence of S.E.Regional Member, Ben Lewis: 

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/applications/core/interface/file/attachment.php?id=524132

In a short while, I will Post up the Current Standings Table in the Competition, after Category 1.

Regards,

Tom.   

Edited February 27, 2020 by TomSE12

[Tom Quintavalle]

Below, are the Current Standings in the NW WEATHER PREDICTING COMPETITION, after the Result of Category 1:

                                                 NW WEATHER PREDICTING COMPETITION

       ENTRANT                          CAT.1     CAT.2      CAT.3     CAT.4      "V"/C TOTAL  

       Lottiekent                          20.00                                                          20.00

       Daniel                                  5.00                                                            5.00

      John Stevens                      5.00                                                            5.00

      Kirk/Weather                       5.00                                                             5.00

      AntonyBR7(Guest)                 X                                                               NIL

      B87                                          X                                                                NIL

      Bobd29                                   X                                                                NIL

      CheesepuffScott                    X                                                                NIL

      Claret047                                X                                                                NIL

      Classylady                              X                                                                NIL

      Febblizzard1991                     X                                                                NIL

      Fiftyshadesofsnow                X                                                                NIL

      Kentspur                                 X                                                                NIL

      Lewis028                                 X                                                                NIL

      Seaside 60                               X                                                               NIL

      Septic Peg(Guest)                  X                                                                NIL

      TomSE12                                 X                                                                NIL    

LOTTIEKENT, goes straight into the lead and carries on her amazing run, in my Weather Competitions. I think I'll have to start calling you, Septic Peg 2. I think you should enter my Cheltenham Festival, Horse Racing Competition. Got any tips for Cheltenham, Lottie. Then come DANIEL, JOHN STEVENS and KIRKCALDY WEATHER. All three went for Tomorrow and as they are within 1 Day of being correct, receive £5 of "Virtual" Credits. Close but still a quarter of a Cigar, Guys!!  

The rest of us were. " finished out with the washing" (Apologies, it's a Horse Racing term).

Quite ironic that I'm bottom of my own Competition, albeit alphabetically and courtesy of being christened Thomas, in honour of my Uncle Tommy. Thanks Uncle Tommy!!

Would you believe, it's actually snowing here in Lee, S.E.London. Try to take a photo of it but it hasn't come out, quite big flakes though, and obviously very marginal.

Right now Category 1 is "done and dusted", we move on to CATEGORY 2: - "Predict the exact and final date, of the last named North Atlantic Storm, and it's name, to enter the Shipping Forecast areas. Plus in which area will it's lowest central Pressure, be recorded". 

Looks like ELLEN, could be lining up for the Weekend, with FRANCIS waiting in the wings, further into next Week.  

Much thanks again to Ben Lewis, from the South East Thread, for providing the photographic evidence of Today's, settling Snow.

Regards,

Tom.                     

      

                              

                                                     

 

[Tom Quintavalle]

I've had to make an executive decision, after the Spanish Met Office have "nicked" our next Storm.

Therefore Jorge, in terms of the Competition, will be known as Ellen. 

Regards,

Tom.  

[Tom Quintavalle]

On 21/02/2020 at 20:20, TomSE12 said:

Hi J.S.,

Yes it's a definite possibility, as the omnipresent Azores High finally loosens its grip and edges slightly further away, to the S.W.

Meanwhile, Category 2 (exact date and name of last named Storm to enter Shipping Forecast area), looks to have plenty more mileage in it, yet. The next named Storm (ELLEN), could well be "on the cards", for Monday. It's really interesting watching the Forecast Model Runs and noting these Lows form in the Baroclinic Zone, and "surfing" the area between the Azores High and those bitter cold "uppers", spilling out of Eastern Canada. 

                    UKMO (t72)                                               ECM (t72)

  

Perhaps swiftly followed by FRANCIS at t144. if ECM have called this right.

My prediction of ELLEN as the last named Storm, is starting to look distinctly premature!! 

Regards,

Tom.   

As I stated the other Day, I will be counting JORGE as ELLEN. The Irish Met Office have normally been quick off the mark at naming N.Atlantic Storms, this Winter. But the Spanish Met Office beat them to it this time, mind you still don't fully understand why they had to get involved. The effects of this Storm were bad enough again, for the UK and Ireland.

With the N.Atlantic now looking to calm down this Week, it's quite conceivable that ELLEN (JORGE), will be the last named Storm of the Season.

With that in mind, if "ELLEN" is the last named Storm of the Season, those Entrants that predicted this name will receive £10 of "Virtual" Credits. I don't want to be considered a cheat, as I selected ELLEN, so will only award half of the "Virtual"Credits, on offer. 

From the point of view of which Shipping Area Ellen achieved her lowest central pressure, Yesterday's Met Office Shipping Forecast, suggested it was FAIR ISLE, with a central Pressure of around 954 Millibars.

Can any Members, confirm the above, please?

Regards,

Tom.   

 

[Tom Quintavalle]

It seems an age ago now and although, there's a lot of non-Weather news around at the moment, I'm aware that my Weather predicting Competition is still ongoing. I don't think that 21c (70f) was recorded or exceeded in the South East Region, over the Weekend but I stand to be corrected, of course. I will be keeping a close eye on Wednesday 8th April, which could see that Temperature of 21c (70f) recorded/exceeded, for the first time this Year.

Below, is the Format and details of "Virtual" Credits awarded, for a correct or "near miss" prediction, in Category 4.

"CATEGORY 4: -  Predict the FIRST Date that 21c (70f), is recorded/exceeded, in the South East Region.

If your prediction corresponds to the exact Date, you will receive £20 of "Virtual" Monetary Credits. Should your prediction be 24 Hours, either side of the exact Date, you will receive £5 of "Virtual" Monetary Credits".

If any Member could provide evidence that 21c (70f) was recorded/exceeded in the South East Region, over the Weekend, I'd much appreciate it. 

The ORANGE area in the Map below, shows the extent of the NW South East Region: 

Thank you.

In a short while, I will Post up the Standings Table after Category 1, of the NW Weather Predicting Competition, and those Entrants, who have a good chance of a correct/near miss prediction, in Category 4.

Regards,

Tom. 

[Tom Quintavalle]

Below, are the Current Standings in the NW WEATHER PREDICTING COMPETITION, after the Result of Category 1:

                                                    NW WEATHER PREDICTING COMPETITION

       ENTRANT                          CAT.1     CAT.2      CAT.3     CAT.4      "V"/C TOTAL  

       Lottiekent                          20.00                                                          20.00

       Daniel                                  5.00                                                            5.00

      John Stevens                       5.00                                                            5.00

      Kirk/Weather                        5.00                                                            5.00

      AntonyBR7(Guest)                 X                                                               NIL

      B87                                           X                                                              NIL

      Bobd29                                    X                                                               NIL

      CheesepuffScott                     X                                                               NIL

      Claret047                                 X                                                               NIL

      Classylady                               X                                                               NIL

      Febblizzard1991                      X                                                               NIL

      Fiftyshadesofsnow                 X                                                               NIL

      Kentspur                                  X                                                               NIL

      Lewis028                                  X                                                               NIL

      Seaside 60                               X                                                               NIL

      Septic Peg(Guest)                   X                                                               NIL

      TomSE12                                  X                                                               NIL  

      LOTTIEKENT - Friday.10th April, is the only Entrant seemingly in with a chance of a correct/near miss prediction, in Catecory 4, this Week.  

Tomorrow Morning, I will Post up the latest situation in CATEGORY 2: - Predict the exact and final date, and name of last named Storm to enter the Shipping Forecast area, and in which Shipping Forecast area will it attain its lowest central Pressure (in millibars).

4 parts to Category 2 - (A). Date. (B).Storm Name. (C).Shipping Forecast Area, and (D). Value of lowest central pressure attained, in millibars).

You will receive £20 of "Virtual" Monetary Credits, for each exact prediction. You will receive £5 of "Virtual" Monetary Credits, if your prediction is within 24 Hours of (A) Date, the adjoining Shipping Forecast area (C), and within 5 millibars, either side, of (D)  Value of lowest central pressure attained.

**NB** - QUOTE -   "As I stated on February 27th, I will be counting JORGE as ELLEN. The Irish Met Office have normally been quick off the mark at naming N.Atlantic Storms, this Winter. But the Spanish Met Office beat them to it this time, mind you still don't fully understand why they had to get involved. The effects of this Storm were bad enough again, for the UK and Ireland.

With the N.Atlantic now looking to calm down this Week, it's quite conceivable that ELLEN (JORGE), will be the last named Storm of the Season.

With that in mind, if "ELLEN" is the last named Storm of the Season, those Entrants that predicted this name will receive £10 of "Virtual" Credits. I don't want to be considered a cheat, as I selected ELLEN, so will only award half of the "Virtual"Credits, on offer." 

With the cut-off Date for Category 2 being Thursday 30th April, it's quite conceivable that ELLEN (JORGE), will be the last named N.Atlantic Storm, of the Season. More details on that, Tomorrow Morning.

Regards,

Tom.