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Evening all,

Inspired by a recent Competition I co-hosted with fellow S.E.Regional Member snowray, I'd like to give details of another Weather predicting Competition. The Competition will be open to all NW Members. I will Post up a series of links, to assist your predicting.

The Competition will comprise of the following Categories:

CATEGORY 1: -

Predict the next Date of "Settling Snow", in the S.E. Region. Just a dusting will count but NOT Hail.

See link below, to Forecast Model Runs :

https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data

CATEGORY 2: - Predict the exact and final date, of the last named North Atlantic Storm, and it's name, to enter the Shipping Forecast areas. Plus in which area will it's lowest central Pressure, be recorded. 

See below, list of Met Office future North Atlantic named Storms, plus a map of the Shipping Forecast areas:

image.thumb.png.65db80cc7b9d1682ea85ead2961a1f0a.png

A few Days ago, I exchanged PMs with Jo Farrow to ascertain when the North Atlantic named Storm Season, finished. Jo wasn't too sure but will be speaking to the Met Office, in the next few Days. 

But I've decided for the purposes of Category 2, Storms that have been named will count up to and including Tuesday 31st March. (This will be the cut-off Date, in terms of the Competition).

image.thumb.png.6c2b086abfe958bf6252acf6742f440d.png

CATEGORY 3:-

Predict the exact Date and Temp. (to the nearest degree Celsius), of the last AIR Frost of the Season, in the South East Region.

CATEGORY 4:-

Predict the FIRST Date that 21c (70f), is recorded in the South East Region.

Just to clarify the boundary extent of the S.E.Region (Orange area).See Map below:

 image.png.1333c8d95868884c3fc66eae0bc8914c.png

Please Copy/Paste your predictions, into the Boxes provided below:

CATEGORY 1: (next date of "Settling Snow, in the S.E.Region) -

CATEGORY 2: ( exact date and name of last named Storm to enter Shipping Forecast area, and in which Shipping Forecast area will it attain its lowest central Pressure (in millibars) -

CATEGORY 3: (exact date/Temp. to nearest degree Celsius, of last AIR Frost of the Season, in S.E.Region) -

CATEGORY 4: (exact date that 21c+ (70f+) is first recorded, in the S.E.Region) -  

**NB** - Categories 1,3 and 4 relate ONLY to the South East Region.

I will decide on a Scoring System, in the next few Days, once all the Entries are in. 

I already have a list of 30+ Entries from the S.E.Region, whose names I will Post up Tomorrow.

Once all the Entries are in, I will make a "Book" (formulate Betting Odds), on the Competition, and incorporate your "Virtual" Wagers, into the Result of the Competition. More on that Tomorrow.

I've been interested in Meteorology since the age of ten (now 64). Having worked for 25+ Years in the Bookmaking Industry, I suppose I've developed a "gaming" mindset.

"Hosting" this Competition, allows me to indulge myself into two areas I like to think I have a little knowledge of, that of Bookmaking and Meteorology.

During my Bookmaking career, I "hosted" many Sports "Fantasy" Competitions, as I have done in the Sports Zone, on the Lounge Forum, for the last few Years, after recovering from a Brain Haemorrhage that I suffered in September 2015.

Your predictions MUST be posted on this Thread by, 9 PM Saturday 15th February.

Thank you.

Regards,

TomSE12. :hi:

 

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Hi Tom!


CATEGORY 1: (next date of "Settling Snow, in the S.E.Region) - 27th February

CATEGORY 2: ( exact date and name of last named Storm to enter Shipping Forecast area, and in which Shipping Forecast area will it attain its lowest central Pressure (in millibars) -

Gerda / Shannon

CATEGORY 3: (exact date/Temp. to nearest degree Celsius, of last AIR Frost of the Season, in S.E.Region) - 28th March / -1.2c

CATEGORY 4: (exact date that 21c+ (70f+) is first recorded, in the S.E.Region) - 10th April

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7 hours ago, CheesepuffScott said:

Do I have to be in the SE region to enter? Or can my central southern self play along?

Hi CpS,

You're fine to enter. I stated the following, in my introductory Post:

"The Competition will be open to all NW Members".

Although Categories 1,3 and 4 relate ONLY to the South East Region.

Below, is a list of Members who registered predictions in snowray's initial, "Settling Snow" Competition. I've carried forward their predictions into my new Competition. This means the majority of them will have only made a prediction in Category 1: (next date of "Settling Snow, in the S.E.Region). If they would like to be entered into my new Competition and indeed, to have a chance of winning it, they will also have to make predictions for Categories 2, 3, 4. 

NW Weather Predicting Competition

Katrine Basso, Bazza118, Bluebell, CLARET047, Classylady, General Custer, Daniel, Darkcloud, Donna Thw, 

Froze Were The Days, Senlac Jack, KIRKCALDY WEATHER, Lassie23, Lauren, Lottiekent, Steve Murr,                    Snow Queen One, Septic Peg (Guest, WIFE), Sleety, Snowray, Snowrye, Team Squirrel,  Stainesbloke,

JOHN STEVENS, Timbo, TOMSE12, Mark Wheeler, Pinball Wizard.

**NB** - I've already noted and entered up the predictions of - CHERTSEYSTREAMER79, KENTSPUR and LEWIS028. These Members weren't in snowray's, original Competition.

Please remember, the entry deadline for this Competition is, 9 PM Saturday 15th February.Bur if you've already registered predictions, you still have time (up until the entry deadline), to change them. Coincidentally, Saturday is also mine and SEPTIC PEG's (Colette), 10th Wedding Anniversary.

I will also be entering my Son, ANTONYBR7, who from a very young age had to learn to tolerate his Father's Weather obsession and probably knew wahat a Scandinavian High was, before he was "knee high to a grasshopper." Both Antony and his Sister accompanied me, on a few Snow Chases.

Right, I'm off to do some preparation on my Horse Racing Competition, for Saturday's Racing. Poor thing has been neglected, in the last few Days but I'll only be next door, in the Lounge Forum, and will pop back later,

Regards,

Tom.  :hi:

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Thanks Lottie, for the above, I'll get those entered and congratulations on your 2nd place, in snowray's Competition.

You're getting a bit "cute", at this Snow Competition lark!! :oldgood:

Regards,

Tom.  :hi:

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Morning Tom, lets have a go:

CATEGORY 1: (next date of "Settling Snow, in the S.E.Region) - 2nd March

CATEGORY 2: ( exact date and name of last named Storm to enter Shipping Forecast area, and in which Shipping Forecast area will it attain its lowest central Pressure (in millibars) -Hugh - Bailey

CATEGORY 3: (exact date/Temp. to nearest degree Celsius, of last AIR Frost of the Season, in S.E.Region) - 19th March

CATEGORY 4: (exact date that 21c+ (70f+) is first recorded, in the S.E.Region) - 3rd May

you never know.

 

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Can I forward another comp to run along side it. 😀

How many people profess to be basing their guesses on a scientific basis or just picking dates at random. 😎

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CATEGORY 1: (next date of "Settling Snow, in the S.E.Region) - 15th December 2020

CATEGORY 2: ( exact date and name of last named Storm to enter Shipping Forecast area, and in which Shipping Forecast area will it attain its lowest central Pressure (in millibars) -

15th March 2020 / Francis / Bailey (975 mb)

CATEGORY 3: (exact date/Temp. to nearest degree Celsius, of last AIR Frost of the Season, in S.E.Region) - 5th April 2020 / -0.1c

CATEGORY 4: (exact date that 21c+ (70f+) is first recorded, in the S.E.Region) -  28th March 2020

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7 hours ago, B87 said:

CATEGORY 1: (next date of "Settling Snow, in the S.E.Region) - 15th December 2020

CATEGORY 2: ( exact date and name of last named Storm to enter Shipping Forecast area, and in which Shipping Forecast area will it attain its lowest central Pressure (in millibars) -

15th March 2020 / Francis / Bailey (975 mb)

CATEGORY 3: (exact date/Temp. to nearest degree Celsius, of last AIR Frost of the Season, in S.E.Region) - 5th April 2020 / -0.1c

CATEGORY 4: (exact date that 21c+ (70f+) is first recorded, in the S.E.Region) -  28th March 2020

Evening all,

Just spent the last hour or so, entering all the entries so far submitted, into my Competition Folder.

If I could draw your attention to B87's entry above. who is the only Entrant to have filled in the Competition correctly.

CATEGORY 2, seems to have been the problem. You needed to predict the following:

Date and name of the last named Storm to enter the Shipping Forecast Area, and in which area will it attain its lowest central pressure, and the value in millibars recorded. Apologies to those Entrants who submitted their Entries early, such as K/Weather, I think I might have added the Central Pressure value poser, at a later stage?

Quite a few of the S.E. Members have only completed CATECORY 1 - (next date of settling snow, in S.E.Region). Perhaps I'm jumping the gun a bit and they're just deciding whether to continue in the Competition, or not.

The settling snow situation was the only Category of prediction in the original Competition "hosted" by my fellow South-Easterner, snowray

I will drop a short reminder on the S.E.Thread Tomorrow Morning, re. the above.

I've decided on a "Scoring System" for the Competition. You will receive "Virtual" monetary Credits, for each correct prediction, in the following denominations:

CATEGORY 1: Correct prediction - £5.

CATEGORY 2: Correct Prediction in each of the 4 parts to this Category (Date/Storm Name/S/Forecast Area, Value of central pressure in millibars) - £5 for each correct part.

CATEGORY 3: Correct Prediction in each of the 2 parts to this Category (exact date/Temp. to nearest degree Celsius, of last AIR Frost of the Season, in S.E.Region) - £5 for each correct part.

CATEGORY 4: Correct prediction - £5.

So, if you were fortunate to predict each part of all 4 Categories correctly, you will be credited with a "virtual"  £40, by my reckoning.

Once all the entries have been submitted (deadline 9 PM, Sat.15th Feb).

I shall employ the old adage of:

"You can take the man out of Bookmaking but you can't take the Bookmaker, out of the man!"

I will create a "Book" (create Betting Odds for each Entrant, on their performance in the Competition).

You will then be allocated "Virtual" Stakes of £10. £5 of which will be placed on your own performance and the other "virtual" £5 will be placed on another Entrant of your choice.

Any Returns from these "Virtual" Wagers will be added to your "Virtual" Credits.

The Entrant who has accrued the largest amount of "Virtual" Credits by the end of the Competition, shall be deemed the Winner.

In the next couple of Days, I will make a decision on what "Virtual" Prizes to award, the 1st, 2nd and 3rd.

Regards,

Tom.    :hi:

 

 

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On 11/02/2020 at 16:49, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

CATEGORY 1: (next date of "Settling Snow, in the S.E.Region) -  28th February 

CAREGORY 2: ( exact date and name of last named Storm to enter Shipping Forecast area) - Francis (948 mb)24th February, Shannon shipping forecast area  

CATEGORY 3: (exact date/Temp. to nearest degree Celsius, of last AIR Frost of the Season, in S.E.Region) - 12th April -3 C 

CATEGORY 4: (exact date that 21c (70f) is first recorded, in the S.E.Region) -  11th May

Have added that in now Tom 😀 

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Hi Tom

Cat 3 min temp -1.7, pleas add in thanks.

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I will now Post up the predictions of myself and my 2 Guests, Wife Colette (Septic Peg) and Son Antony (AntonyBR7) 

ANTONYBR7 (Guest)

CATEGORY 1: (next date of "Settling Snow, in the S.E.Region) - Mon.9th March

CATEGORY 2: ( exact date and name of last named Storm to enter Shipping Forecast area, and in which Shipping Forecast area will it attain its lowest central Pressure, and what will that value be? (in millibars) -

DATE - Fri.21st FEB. NAME - Ellen. AREA - Bailey. PRESSURE - 958 mbs.

CATEGORY 3: (exact date/Temp. to nearest degree Celsius, of last AIR Frost of the Season, in S.E.Region) -

DATE -  Mon.25th May. TEMP -1.0c (30f)

CATEGORY 4: (exact date that 21c+ (70f+) is first recorded, in the S.E.Region) - Sat.28th March.  

SEPTIC PEG (Guest)

CATEGORY 1: (next date of "Settling Snow, in the S.E.Region) - Mon. 2nd March.

CATEGORY 2: ( exact date and name of last named Storm to enter Shipping Forecast area, and in which Shipping Forecast area will it attain its lowest central Pressure, and what will that value be? (in millibars) -

DATE - Fri.21st Feb.  NAME - Ellen AREA - S.E.Iceland PRESSURE - 950 mbs.

CATEGORY 3: (exact date/Temp. to nearest degree Celsius, of last AIR Frost of the Season, in S.E.Region) -

DATE -  Mon.25th May. TEMP -1.5c (29f)

CATEGORY 4: (exact date that 21c+ (70f+) is first recorded, in the S.E.Region) - Fri. 24th April.  

TOMSE12

CATEGORY 1: (next date of "Settling Snow, in the S.E.Region) - Fri. 13th March

CATEGORY 2: ( exact date and name of last named Storm to enter Shipping Forecast area, and in which Shipping Forecast area will it attain its lowest central Pressure, and what will that value be? (in millibars) -

DATE - Thurs.20th Feb. NAME - Ellen. AREA - S.E.Iceland. PRESSURE - 955 mbs.

CATEGORY 3: (exact date/Temp. to nearest degree Celsius, of last AIR Frost of the Season, in S.E.Region) -

DATE -  Tues.26th May. TEMP -1.0c (30f)

CATEGORY 4: (exact date that 21c+ (70f+) is first recorded, in the S.E.Region) - Mon.20th April.  

Regards,

Tom.    :hi:

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Hi @TomSE12 I forgot to add a forecast area and pressure for my entry in category 2, I had provided a date. I shall go for Bailey/ 977mb

 All the best,

 John

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Hello Tom

Thanks for your reply on the SE/EA regional thread.

If you incorporate the following additional information to my submission I would be very grateful.

Last named storm sea area Trafalgar, barometric pressure 953mb

Air temperature for the final air frost of the season -1.4C 

Many thanks

Kind Regards

Dave

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Reposting with correct format... I seem to have brushed past some things so gave it a re-read (hope all is right!)

 

CATEGORY 1: (next date of "Settling Snow, in the S.E.Region) - 14th March

CATEGORY 2: ( exact date and name of last named Storm to enter Shipping Forecast area, and in which Shipping Forecast area will it attain its lowest central Pressure (in millibars) - 26th March / Gerda / Rockall (969mb)

CATEGORY 3: (exact date/Temp. to nearest degree Celsius, of last AIR Frost of the Season, in S.E.Region) - 1st April / -1.7°C

CATEGORY 4: (exact date that 21c+ (70f+) is first recorded, in the S.E.Region) - 6th April

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Hi Tom,

Here's my guesses! 

CATEGORY 1: (next date of "Settling Snow, in the S.E.Region) -  13th March

CAREGORY 2: ( exact date and name of last named Storm to enter Shipping Forecast area) - Kitty (971 mb)  21 March, Viking shipping forecast area  

CATEGORY 3: (exact date/Temp. to nearest degree Celsius, of last AIR Frost of the Season, in S.E.Region) - 18th March 0.9C 

CATEGORY 4: (exact date that 21c (70f) is first recorded, in the S.E.Region) -  12th April

Thank you.

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Hi Tom,

Just see your post on the SE thread, to add to my category 2 prediction as I forgot to mention the pressure etc.

Date: 8th March, Storm Francis, pressure 956mbar, Bailey.

Thanks! 😀

Edited by lewis028

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Much Thanks to classylady and lewis028 above. I'll get your predictions entered up, into my Competition Folder. 

I now have nine completed Entries, and a few uncompleted ones.

Just a quick reminder, the entry deadline expires at 9 PM Tonight.

In a short while, I will Post up details of the Scoring System I'll be using, to determine the Result of the Competition.

Regards,

Tom.    :hi: 

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2 hours ago, John Stevens said:

Happy anniversary @TomSE12

Thanks John, although "Dennis" has come to  gatecrash mine and Septic's (Wife Colette), celebrations!!

QUOTE:

"In a short while, I will Post up details of the Scoring System I'll be using, to determine the Result of the Competition".

This will have to wait until Tomorrow now, as I've had to do some rearranging of my Horse Racing Competition, due to the inclement Weather.

Regards,

Tom.  :hi:

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CATEGORY 1: (next date of "Settling Snow, in the S.E.Region) -  31st March

CATEGORY 2: ( exact date and name of last named Storm to enter Shipping Forecast area, and in which Shipping Forecast area will it attain its lowest central Pressure (in millibars) - Francis,15th March, SE Iceland.

 

CATEGORY 3: (exact date/Temp. to nearest degree Celsius, of last AIR Frost of the Season, in S.E.Region) - 31st March, -3c

CATEGORY 4: (exact date that 21c+ (70f+) is first recorded, in the S.E.Region) - 23rd March

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Category 1 - Jan 15th 2021

Category 2 - Helen March 30th

Category 3 - April 10th 2020 -5

Category 4 - May 6th 2020

 

To be honest suspect I've nailed it on all 4.

Edited by FiftyShadesofSnow

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CATEGORY 1: (next date of "Settling Snow, in the S.E.Region) - 28th February 2020

CATEGORY 2: ( exact date and name of last named Storm to enter Shipping Forecast area, and in which Shipping Forecast area will it attain its lowest central Pressure (in millibars) -Gerda, 23rd March 2020 965mb  

CATEGORY 3: (exact date/Temp. to nearest degree Celsius, of last AIR Frost of the Season, in S.E.Region) - April 10th 2020 -2C 

CATEGORY 4: (exact date that 21c+ (70f+) is first recorded, in the S.E.Region) -  22nd April 2020

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Just a quick reminder, the entry deadline for the Competition has now expired.

Much thanks to the above Members who posted Entries Today.

I will Post up a final list of Entrants Tomorrow, plus details of the Scoring System I've devised, for the Competition.

Thank you.

Regards,

Tom.  :hi:

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Afternoon all,

From a brightening S.E.London, now that Dennis has done his worst.

Below, is the final list of Entrants, into the NW Weather Predicting Competition: 

ANTONYBR7 (Guest, Son), B87, BOBD29, CHEESEPUFFSCOTT, CLARET047, CLASSYLADY, DANIEL, FEBBLIZZARD1991, FIFTY SHADES OF SNOW, KENTSPUR, KIRKCALDY WEATHER, LEWIS028, LOTTIEKENT, SEPTIC PEG (Guest, Wife), JOHN STEVENS and TOMSE12.

A few of you, havn't quite completed Category 2 but I will send those Entrants a PM, requesting a little more predicting. It mainly concerns, in which Shipping Forecast Area, will the last named Storm of this Season, attain its lowest central Pressure (in Millibars).

So, we have a tidy entry of sixteen. 

I was expecting a few more Entries from the South East Regional Thread. I did leave a reminder on that Thread but those Members, obviously declined to enter. They were, in the most part, original Entrants into S,E, Regional Member, snowray's "Settling Snow" Cup.

A little later, I will Post up details of the Scoring System I've devised, for the Competition. This will feature, "Virtual" Monetary Credits, for correct predictions.

Tomorrow, after going through your predictions with a "fine-tooth comb", I will put my Bookmaker's hat on, and  "make a Book" (formulate some Betting Odds), on the outcome of the Competition.

You will be allocated some "Virtual" Stakes to place on your own predictions, and those of one other Entrant.

Any "Virtual" Returns gained from these Wagers, will be credited to your "balance", and go towards determining the  Result of the Competition. More on that, later.

Thank you.

Regards,

Tom.   :hi:

Edited by TomSE12

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