Jump to content

Recommended Posts

13 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I think some people may be underestimating the winds to be honest.

I guess we shall see.

I have a feeling you might be right.  The 18z NMM is going for widespread inland gusts of 75mph at 6.00pm tomorrow (not sure how reliable this model is for wind speed?)

image.thumb.png.0e5dbf40bd00bc82312c5f15fcc73dfe.png

The UKMO seems to be very much at the low end in comparison to the other models, but we'll start to see in the next few hours how this pans out.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 552
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

So what idiocy will we see today. Shorts and Tshirted hikers rescued from Snowdon. People being washed into the sea in Newquay whilst taking selfies.....with a dozen surfers in the backgroun

One hell of an atmospheric river of moisture upstream across the Atlantic all the way from Bahamas   Looks ominous and indeed models are indicating another wave of heavy rain to move in toni

Posted Images

In fact, following on from my earlier message, the NMM goes on to show 90mph gusts across the north of England (and northern tip of Wales) in the early hours of Sunday morning.  I can't believe that's correct (I hope it's not!).

image.thumb.png.0f901fa4d8adcbd48c80c304c0a8626e.png

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

^ That model is going for 80mph here. I can 100% categorically say that it will be wrong, by a long way.

It has to be wrong, surely?

Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Ice Day said:

It has to be wrong, surely?

No, its probably right. There will be a defined squall line crossing into Wales around midnight and crossing the UK Eastwards

That line will have very fierce winds and torrential rain, 

It will be around 10 miles wide but you will know when your in it.

 

So wind gusts will increase during the squall by at least 10knts  so 80mph or 90mph gusts are a risk for a short period of time for a few places locally, mainly near coasts and at height

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

The Met Office did well in storm Ciara. At the same point in time for the blanket warning, their impact matrix shows Dennis will have less impact, and the likelihood / confidence higher.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

The Met Office did well in storm Ciara. At the same point in time for the blanket warning, their impact matrix shows Dennis will have less impact, and the likelihood / confidence higher.

No they didnt  unless you  think putting up a blanket warning after many hours we all knew it should have been  they  were woeful

Edited by weirpig
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

The Met Office did well in storm Ciara. At the same point in time for the blanket warning, their impact matrix shows Dennis will have less impact, and the likelihood / confidence higher.

They did do well, no doubt.  However, I think they may be shown to be too low with the wind speeds on this one.  As Weirpig mentioned earlier, this is a very complex system so it could perhaps throw up a few surprises.  We'll start to find out over the next few hours.

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

In fact, following on from my earlier message, the NMM goes on to show 90mph gusts across the north of England (and northern tip of Wales) in the early hours of Sunday morning.  I can't believe that's correct (I hope it's not!).

image.thumb.png.0f901fa4d8adcbd48c80c304c0a8626e.png

I wouldn't pay much attention to that model as it almost always over does the wind speeds.

In fact it would be the first time it got it right if it turned out to be correct since I have seen it predicting the winds on this site.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, weirpig said:

No they didnt  unless you  think putting up a blanket warning after many hours we all knew it should have been  they  were woeful

They had a blanket warning up 4 days ahead of it...

I was talking about wind speeds. They had those consistently spot on for days in their forecast.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

They had a blanket warning up 4 days ahead of it...

I was talking about wind speeds. They had those consistently spot on for days in their forecast.

They were well out on wind speeds    models continually  showed  speeds 65 mph plus inland    the met then shown  an amber for canterbury  area     we all knew it should be of a wider area      then after many hours  they shown a amber for the rest of england    they were woeful     reactive rather than proactive  

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, weirpig said:

They were well out on wind speeds    models continually  showed  speeds 65 mph plus inland    the met then shown  an amber for canterbury  area     we all knew it should be of a wider area      then after many hours  they shown a amber for the rest of england    they were woeful     reactive rather than proactive  

They weren't.

They were slow to upgrade to a wider amber warning, but the argument was why weren't they issuing a wider one with the wind speeds that their model was predicting. Their wind speed forecasts for much of the South remained similar values for days leading up to and including the day of the storm.

The amber warning fiasco aside, the overall speeds were forecast well.

Many on here were complaining that all they got was a "crisp packet rustler" in terms of wind speeds, so what's it to be? Overestimating or underestimating?

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

They weren't.

They were slow to upgrade to a wider amber warning, but the argument was why weren't they issuing a wider one with the wind speeds that their model was predicting. Their wind speed forecasts for much of the South remained similar values for days leading up to and including the day of the storm.

The amber warning fiasco aside, the overall speeds were forecast well.

Many on here were complaining that all they got was a "crisp packet rustler" in terms of wind speeds, so what's it to be? Overestimating or underestimating?

In all due respect  that's rubbish   at no point  unless I  was mistaken  was winds of 60mph were  to whistle through dudley a couple of hours before   ( according to the met  which is severe for these parts)   and while we are on met bashing   and being proactive  rather than proactive    a few days ago  some areas of stoke were under a blanket of snow   then  all of a sudden  met issued a yellow warning      if it wasn't mine and your money it wouldn't bother me     but I stick with my comment   reactive   rather than proactive 

 

 

 

 

Edited by weirpig
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, weirpig said:

In all due respect  that's rubbish   at no point  unless I  was mistaken  was winds of 60mph were  to whistle through dudley  ( according to the met  which is severe for these parts) 

What bit is rubbish? 

I'm not sure where you were, but even the yellow warning mentioned 50 to 60mph inland. I posted many UKV charts showing it.

I'm not going to let this thread get bogged down by this constant moaning about the Met Office. Why don't you email them and vent your anger about what you did or didn't get?!

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

I am sure there must be a Met Office bashing thread somewhere, Personally i find them very good.

I hope your not mistaking TV forecasts for Met Office, as they are not, some advice may be sold to them but its private company.

 

 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, pyrotech said:

Thanks for sharing, looks like a slight upgrade in precipitation for Brecon Beacons area

It starts to look a little confusing as we're almost upon the event, so it can make the totals look less on one chart. However, if you add them up over the two charts, it's still looking pretty bad!

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

It starts to look a little confusing as we're almost upon the event, so it can make the totals look less on one chart. However, if you add them up over the two charts, it's still looking pretty bad!

Sorry, by upgrade i mean that rainfall total increased by almost 20mm for the period in that area

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS ups the winds again...

90mph gusts around Pembrokeshire...red warning worthy if that came to pass

image.thumb.png.06b8a52a4baf19f251fb999b08e2b23b.png

60-70mph gusts inland

image.thumb.png.03677cad38179cbbf0e5ea2645447f63.png

Edited by CreweCold
  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Ice Day said:

It has to be wrong, surely?

i seen  appox 70  mph   or  more   this has deepened   over  night

Edited by tinybill
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, CreweCold said:

GFS ups the winds again...

90mph gusts around Pembrokeshire...red warning worthy if that came to pass

image.thumb.png.06b8a52a4baf19f251fb999b08e2b23b.png

60-70mph gusts inland

image.thumb.png.03677cad38179cbbf0e5ea2645447f63.png

The squall looks tasty tomorrow early morning too.. Could wake a few people up more so further south.. 6am followed by 9am Sunday 

Screenshot_20200215_060749_com.android.chrome.thumb.jpg.54f3f482c4544cb64db57f515f3aeeec.jpg

Screenshot_20200215_060734_com.android.chrome.thumb.jpg.6ddf177855172b8b3f6f79d35adaca88.jpg

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...