Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
pip22

Storm Dennis Atlantic Storm 4

Recommended Posts

11 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Are you sure you're looking at the scale correctly? I cannot find anything that is showing nearly 150ft waves - 45 to 50ft, yes, but not 150.

Bouy K4 West of Ireland is showing just over 39' waves so I reckon it should be Feet not Metres, simple mistake but a huge difference hehe

//

02141900 SSW28.9- >[39.4]<-13-29.42+0.0248.650.546.9---

02141800 SW29.9->[45.3]<-14-29.42+0.0648.450.447.5---

//

45.3' at 1800

39.4' at 1900

 

Edited by SnowBear
Added Bouy data

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Are you sure you're looking at the scale correctly? I cannot find anything that is showing nearly 150ft waves - 45 to 50ft, yes, but not 150.

Sorry i wrote 45m first time, but for some reason someone moved my posts and second time put 45m instead of 45ft

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, pyrotech said:

Sorry i wrote 45m first time, but for some reason someone moved my posts and second time put 45m instead of 45ft

No posts were removed or hidden. If you meant this one it is only two posts above your last reply. ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

No posts were removed or hidden. If you meant this one it is only two posts above your last reply. ?

No it was the one where i mentioned two forecasters i had spoken too, i thought it  was because i mentioned them so i did not in next post, but now original post has turned up again, maybe gremlins in my computer

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, ancientsolar said:

looking at 70mph gusts in Wales... and seeing how the winds were advertised as 70-80mph for last weekend.. and there were a couple of 90mph, I wouldn't take anything for granted.~ Most of our towns are in the valleys, flooding isn't such a concern,. but landslides are and the wind can be funnelled up the valleys increasing strength.. so again.. take nothing for granted.




 

Because in terms of wind its not actuslly going to be that bad,  also the fact that with nearly every storm its overhyped by many on here. Not very often a storm lives up to the hype on here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The GFS 18z has slightly increased the strongest winds for tomorrow night.  70mph winds now possible for much of England and Wales at 7.00pm.

image.thumb.png.e06d2472e9423449d1d86a10fe266f34.png

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

To this observer, the real danger seems to be as the LP crosses to the north of Scotland on Sunday night and into Monday. The winds expected through the Central Belt look very strong into the early hours of Monday.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ciara brought down a tree in my garden last week as well as half the stone wall that it was inside,. < odd sentence.. but really the tree grew in the wall and both have come down..
On flooding I have photos somewhere of floods going back to 2004/5 Autumn,. there were so many lower pressure systems that the river Ebbw nearly burst it's banks at Crumlin, but the football pitch next to the river was soaked,.
- I became interested in the weather because of floods and a huge Thunder storm that occurred over night in the early 2000s not too indifferent to the one just a couple of years ago that came out of France into Plymouth and onto Wales.. - in that time, despite the deluges of rain,. I have only seen very minor flooding of surrounding areas by the river.. but a good number of our rivers are in steep valleys and people just don't build many houses around them. 

There is always a risk.. 120mm of rain.. falling across very many valleys.. by the time it coms to the River Taff and Usk it could be pretty serious,. - so concern about flooding in those rivers no doubt will be high.. and there are surely a couple of high tides that will not help matters at all.

70mph winds.. could bring down trees that could get trapped behind bridges if in flooded areas,. - mudslides seem to be a common thing too. 

To make matters worse it rained for a good few hours today and is still raining in the SW of England


 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

The GFS 18z has slightly increased the strongest winds for tomorrow night.  70mph winds now possible for much of England and Wales at 7.00pm.

image.thumb.png.e06d2472e9423449d1d86a10fe266f34.png

And here's the UKV for the same time:

viewimage.thumb.png.2c9f1f0215403168c6f89c2c5d125ec5.png

Falls inline with the Met Office' impacts and text.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

The GFS 18z has slightly increased the strongest winds for tomorrow night.  70mph winds now possible for much of England and Wales at 7.00pm.

image.thumb.png.e06d2472e9423449d1d86a10fe266f34.png

and there are 120km blobs on the coast which is about 80mph,. a lot of us in these regions are well above 10m level too

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

And here's the UKV for the same time:

viewimage.thumb.png.2c9f1f0215403168c6f89c2c5d125ec5.png

Falls inline with the Met Office' impacts and text.

 

Interesting, that's roughly 15-20mph less than the GFS...... I know which one I trust more (and for the avoidance of doubt, it's not the GFS!).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Interesting, that's roughly 15-20mph less than the GFS...... I know which one I trust more (and for the avoidance of doubt, it's not the GFS!).

GFS did well with Storm Ciara in fact one of top models ECM was way too OTT.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Whoever you are, wherever you are, may you be safe and enjoy the excitement of the storm!!

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Rainfall totals by Euro4 and Arpege have dropped slightly for Wales, what does UKV say?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, pyrotech said:

Rainfall totals by Euro4 and Arpege have dropped slightly for Wales, what does UKV say?

And for cumbria i think

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

UKV Day 1 and Day 2, respectively..

300640390_viewimage(1).thumb.png.176aa4f15e528022cc0aa30549bed989.png 1998488896_viewimage(2).thumb.png.6ed9eac0dc8a9a1398edf0c2b5219899.png

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think the worst thing about this system is the amount of rain that might fall, which will be both worrying in case of widespread flooding but also unpleasant when trying to measure and witness the winds.

I was thinking of going up the local hill tomorrow afternoon to measure the winds but the latest models are only showing 40-50mph gusts which is what I always often record in most storms, whereas a few days ago it seemed more worth going up there and recording as there were forecast 60mph or even 70mph inland gusts.

If the models only show 40mph or 50mph gusts tomorrow morning then I don't think i'll bother going out up the hill for the amount of unpleasant soaking i'll probably get, and thats even with waterproofs on!?

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

UKV Day 1 and Day 2, respectively..

300640390_viewimage(1).thumb.png.176aa4f15e528022cc0aa30549bed989.png 1998488896_viewimage(2).thumb.png.6ed9eac0dc8a9a1398edf0c2b5219899.png

Thank You, much the same as Euro 4 with 100mm looking the likely high figure now

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, pyrotech said:

I viewed the Buoy reports via my website and 45ft waves West of Ireland are monster seas. Suspect shipping will be avoiding that area.

Marine Traffic does show one brave cargo ship in the area of the storm,

Untitled.png

A few fishing boats off the coast of Ireland,

unintitled.thumb.png.87656ddedf25a31638cd4bd0f20f6949.png

Edited by Zenarcher

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Zenarcher said:

Marine Traffic does show one brave cargo ship in the area of the storm,

Untitled.png

A few fishing boats off the coast of Ireland,

unintitled.thumb.png.87656ddedf25a31638cd4bd0f20f6949.png

storm or no storm, work still has to go on ? 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not an inkling of Dennis here. Pressure has been steady for 12 hrs. Winds are light and a bit of drizzle ?‍♀️

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Ice Day said:

The GFS 18z has slightly increased the strongest winds for tomorrow night.  70mph winds now possible for much of England and Wales at 7.00pm.

image.thumb.png.e06d2472e9423449d1d86a10fe266f34.png

I think some people may be underestimating the winds to be honest.

I guess we shall see.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...