Storm Dennis Atlantic Storm 4

[Badgers01]

5 hours ago, Thunder Snow said:

How's it looking for Cumbria 

I was thinking the same - an amber rain warning might be coming for there....

[Ryukai]

2 hours ago, Mapantz said:

Latest Met Office forecast suggesting 24 hours of 50 - 60mph here. Lucky that I haven't put up the new fence yet.

Still haven't had chance to re-tack the roof lining back on top of the shed that tore off (thankyou Ciara...)  Still too gusty to do it safely ><

[Alexis]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

The gfs has Dennis down to 917mb!!

I think the record is 920mb in 1929!

[The PIT]

Looking like the rain will be the notable thing here and the warm night. We shall see.

[BurntFishTrousers]

 

[knocker]

54 minutes ago, Alexis said:

I think the record is 920mb in 1929!

[Glaswegianblizzard]

At least the guy in the Ciara thread who was raging he couldn't pronounce it will be happier this weekend.

[CheesepuffScott]

You should have a look at Twitter, people cannot decide whether it is Denis, Dennis... or even Denise as I saw earlier...

[emmett garland]

Are we really going to see a sub 930mb come sunday night knocker

[inkermanhero]

Regarding ferries, they can cope perfectly well at sea in a storm.  The problem is manoeuvring a shallow-draft vessel with high, flat sides at slow speed in a restricted area.  Harbour entrances can also pose special difficulties, so it all depends upon the wind speed and direction in the harbour manoeuvring area and the sea conditions in the final approach and entrance.  These can change very quickly ( with a major wind shift etc) so you just have to monitor their bulletins closely and hope for the best!

[knocker]

3 minutes ago, emmett garland said:

Are we really going to see a sub 930mb come sunday night knocker

More like Sat midday as Exeter have it down to 926mb

[knocker]

 

42 minutes ago, BurntFishTrousers said:

 

I'm not sure that is correct. As far as I can see that is the first low which deepens in mid Atlantic before Dennis arrives south of it and then undergoes explosive cyclogenisis as the upper troughs merge This the surface sequence

 

Edited February 12, 2020 by knocker

[Thunder Snow]

26 minutes ago, knocker said:

 

I'm not sure that is correct. As far as I can see that is the first low which deepens in mid Atlantic before Dennis arrives south of it and then undergoes explosive cyclogenisis as the upper troughs merge This the surface sequence

 

How much rain for Cumbria:/

[knocker]

I'm afraid that's way above my pay grade but the ecm is giving a weekend total of around 3" but you best keep an eye on METO updates

[Thunder Snow]

18 minutes ago, knocker said:

I'm afraid that's way above my pay grade but the ecm is giving a weekend total of around 3" but you best keep an eye on METO updates

Great thats all we need, but the metoffice kinda underestimated the rain from last weekend 

[matt111]

1 hour ago, CheesepuffScott said:

You should have a look at Twitter, people cannot decide whether it is Denis, Dennis... or even Denise as I saw earlier...

Same thing happens nearly every time. Unless it's a name that's easy to spell and only has one way of spelling it. 

[knocker]

22 minutes ago, Thunder Snow said:

Great thats all we need, but the metoffice kinda underestimated the rain from last weekend 

Well I wouldn't be over confidant that the ecm will get it correct

[viking_smb]

1 hour ago, inkermanhero said:

Regarding ferries, they can cope perfectly well at sea in a storm.  The problem is manoeuvring a shallow-draft vessel with high, flat sides at slow speed in a restricted area.  Harbour entrances can also pose special difficulties, so it all depends upon the wind speed and direction in the harbour manoeuvring area and the sea conditions in the final approach and entrance.  These can change very quickly ( with a major wind shift etc) so you just have to monitor their bulletins closely and hope for the best!

you are correct, high sided vessels have issues with windage, however most ferries have twin screws, twin rudders and also bow thrusters, tugs are available at the main ports though if required, 

[CheesepuffScott]

17 minutes ago, matt111 said:

Same thing happens nearly every time. Unless it's a name that's easy to spell and only has one way of spelling it. 

Oh yes! And it's Storm Ellen / Helen / Elen next. Maybe Elenn too. I understand that some people may not be the best of spellers but it doesn't help that the wrong name ends up trending because of the overuse of it.

[inkermanhero]

Viking, you are right, of course but fifty knots on the beam of a ferry is a mighty force and it is all about risk management for the harbour authority.  Berthing is an exact science and you can’t take chances with 40-50,000 tons of steel when a few feet either way makes all the difference between success and disaster.  It is the closure of ports that stops the ferries and, if they are at sea when it happens, they stay safely at sea until the port is opened again or go elsewhere.  Happens regularly in severe weather.

[sunnijim]

GFS 00z develops a potent secondary feature. Xc weather calling for 82mph gusts and a sustained 53mph wind at 3pm on Sunday in my locale.

[Dreckly]

Metosat airmass image

[Turnedoutniceagain]

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Manually run the sequence through for Saturday and Sunday. It's just a wall of water for the South & Midlands

[Badgers01]

Very specific amber rain warnings out for 3 areas now quite localised though ..

[Summer Sun]

Amber rain warnings issued for the following areas on Saturday and Sunday

North West England

• Greater Manchester
• Lancashire

South West England

• Devon
• Torbay

Wales

• Blaenau Gwent
• Bridgend
• Caerphilly
• Cardiff
• Merthyr Tydfil
• Monmouthshire
• Neath Port Talbot
• Newport
• Powys
• Rhondda Cynon Taf
• Torfaen

Yorkshire & Humber

• North Yorkshire
• West Yorkshire

Amber rain warning issued for the following areas on Sunday ONLY

London & South East England

• Brighton and Hove
• East Sussex
• Hampshire
• Kent
• Surrey
• West Sussex

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/accessible-uk-warnings#warningCard1