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pip22

Storm Dennis Atlantic Storm 4

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If the models projecting high wind speeds end up being wrong again, then surely they can't be trusted in future situations. Serious doubts about their reliability.

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Rain totals for today onwards:

rain.thumb.png.1c0587c6fd00b4f69426068cbf60f94c.pngrain0.thumb.png.a6d964dcb18528f359c9a2b6bc1abd6c.pngrain1.thumb.png.e53a99b73dfaa6ccdd98d12431ab30f6.pngrain2.thumb.png.b0a94dc5b3f6d6c7fc71eba67d88cb65.png

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Eerily quiet here in Manchester. A light breeze and not even a spot of rain in the air. 

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Langdon Bay is already gusting in the 50s,not that noticeable here yet though, but rain is nearly here. Might bring winds in land with it. 

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Well it’s been raining since I woke at 6:30 this morning, heavy rain started  around 9 and hasn’t eased. Not much in terms of daylight, dark and brooding. Lots of incidents around the duchy already, mainly flood related, warnings of heavy surface water on roads, at least one road closed due to flooding near me already. Not as many trees down yet as last week, but at least 2 reports on local news. 
 

Winds have been variable, steady 35 - 42mph on local weather stations with gusts up to 62, at both Newquay airport and RNAS Culdrose. Local weather team recorded a 70mph gust an hour ago.

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26 minutes ago, sjw2511 said:

Literally nothing here in Hereford again wind wise, obv rain is going to be an issue though.

Either this forum gets over excited every time and those gfs models are always way off, or i just live in a sheltered area.

Met office has been more modest and correct.

Pointless post, just because it’s not a hurricane in your back yard 

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Storm Dennis has well and truly blown in here (BS34). Heavy rain, strong winds. I think the rain is much heavier here than what Ciara dumped. It's coming to the rest of you.

Edited by Bristle boy
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Reasonably quiet in Oxfordshire considering.  Latest gusts:

image.thumb.jpg.de515a75af7cdce16fe9e883058413ec.jpg

Main wind impact does look to be delayed to tomorrow morning according to GFS 6z,

 image.thumb.jpg.2a5523678daf5d472e0fcca5c219ff50.jpg

This is quite different picture re winds than this model seemed to be showing yesterday, to my recollection.

Edited by Mike Poole
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18 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

Pointless post, just because it’s not a hurricane in your back yard 

I think its obvious that in many places the models were nowhere near what actually happened last week, same this.

The met office have been spot on with their local wind forecasts

Edited by sjw2511
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1 minute ago, Dreckly said:

<iframe src="https://www.facebook.com/plugins/post.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Fweathersci%2Fposts%2F2751020888351128&width=500" width="500" height="759" style="border:none;overflow:hidden" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowTransparency="true" allow="encrypted-media"></iframe>

You can say that again !

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Just now, Mike Poole said:

You can say that again !

I did, luckily the second time the link worked!:wallbash:

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Old Betsy just beeped for 48mph. Slowly creeping up.

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87 mph gust at Capel Curig in north Wales at 1pm, though generally gusts coastal areas of Wales are 55-65 mph at the most, must be the funneling effect of the Snowdonia mountains that makes Capel Curig in it's valley spot so prone to violent gusts.

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Pressure already down to 926mb..... how low can he go?

The secondary centre is down to 940mb and I have to wonder how both low centres will interact with one another? I've watched 'canes dance around one another and if these two do similar then the rainfall predictions might be off mark as to who gets hit worst as the systems drag one another around?

Sadly it looks like we bagged all the sandbags should it be somewhere else that gets clobbered......

Or does that not happen?

Concerned from Mytholmroyd....

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46 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Storm Dennis has well and truly blown in here (BS34). Heavy rain, strong winds. I think the rain is much heavier here than what Ciara dumped. It's coming to the rest of you.

Yep, been pouring here in Yate for the last few hours, after intermitent rain overnight and early morning. Winds now very gusty and due to steadily increase, although I think the rain and flooding will be the main story of storm Dennis.

Edited by John88B
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Wind gusts for this afternoon, evening and overnight:

wind.thumb.png.e8412f9e98fe898e2993ae3f4bdce49e.pngwind0.thumb.png.d090945f1361ac67bc9eb1728737caa1.pngwind1.thumb.png.3c1a8fe7da30b156273dfda94783dbd0.pngwind2.thumb.png.1898d8f14aed08d916537abfbcd4d228.png

wind3.thumb.png.02218e4dc17f524048211ef1b182eba0.pngwind4.thumb.png.1725f0296c256dd9d9213d06df7bfa62.pngwind5.thumb.png.3fcb925ac74629bcd8af99556574b6a8.pngwind6.thumb.png.994179fa5bd2e026989d3bbfb38f573b.png

Notice at 3:00-12:00 that the wind gusts pick up very sharply from the cold front. This is the squall line that could develop to bring heavy rain and very strong wind gusts in a short space of time if caught in it.

Edited by Zak M
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Rain is definitely starting to pick up over the hills. Disruption is very likely over these areas.

Also a potent little squall line is coming off the coast of Ireland.

rain.png

rain0.png

rain1.png

rain2.png

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4 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

12z AROME for midnight and 6am 

image.thumb.png.9a5c261d7458833621694e5c316c4715.png

image.thumb.png.84fbbeac8af79678b022e80bfd07a618.png

I wonder if any lightning would be associated with it like last time!

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5 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Rain is definitely starting to pick up over the hills. Disruption is very likely over these areas.

Also a potent little squall line is coming off the coast of Ireland.

rain.png

rain0.png

rain1.png

rain2.png

Not to bad in carlisle at the min sure it will pep up soon

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3 minutes ago, Zak M said:

I wonder if any lightning would be associated with it like last time!

Looks like more than one squall to me, as in there are a few inbeded in the midnight sequence to me. Wonder if lightning on any of those. 

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