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Storm Dennis Atlantic Storm 4


pip22

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Winds upgraded somewhat local forecasts have downgraded. Rainfall at the time of writing looks fairly weak on the radar and disorganised. The main rain yet to arrive.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Through the first half of Sunday a double cold front structure will track south across England and Wales. There could well be some heavy rain and strong gusts on the squall lines but behind both the winds and rain should abate

PPVE89.thumb.gif.f6bf235a308c202fdfa8ac9423fa43c3.gifPPVG89.thumb.gif.26507349e1f54affee373c9b5b3e5095.gifPPVI89.thumb.gif.0ef39128c801d05d19d4251fe1942b9d.gif

ecmwf-deterministic-uk-gust_kt-1825600.thumb.png.cc47f62575a4d84c2365ccab42be6ab8.pngecmwf-deterministic-uk-gust_kt-1854400.thumb.png.de257b38f5df96cd1bb5166909245073.png

But note in the latter half of the day further complications arise in the form of troughs tracking east in the circulation and the movement south east of a filling Dennis. Thus the wind picking up in western regions, particularly NW Scotland with more heavy rain on the cards

ecmwf-deterministic-uk-gust_kt-1876000.thumb.png.669d2ee5873be6a888257cb0bfab97ea.pngecmwf-deterministic-uk-gust_kt-1897600.thumb.png.04ac0e7ac32acf7b0e646a9a878e6052.png

And aloft

ecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-z300_speed-1854400.thumb.png.29b9067ba470b69115b6a9d78c9a0986.pngecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-t850_anom_stream-1854400.thumb.png.49ea1fdee07dddd5d563024a84ca2227.png

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
26 minutes ago, Lisa Martin said:

When are things due to pick up? Got MIL driving down to me today and hoping can get her here early before weather deteriorates 

Depends where you are....?

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Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl

Storm Dennis.  Doesn't really fill me with trepidation, that name.  Storm Damien - now that might do it!   This will be a long lasting event with no specific peak, as there are likely to be strong gusts felt widely at different times through the the UK and widespread heavy rainfall.  However, the most widespread and intense period of high winds is predicted by ARPEGE to occur an hour or so either side of 5:00 pm today south of the border:

image.thumb.png.063e3d5ba157027e2cffe4f0e4936b37.png

North of the border, western Scotland and the western isles are in for a battering around midnight Sunday (AROME):

image.thumb.png.c94cad07f64213c4c0a6b0fa71e8119a.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
1 hour ago, Lisa Martin said:

When are things due to pick up? Got MIL driving down to me today and hoping can get her here early before weather deteriorates 

Why not look at the met office video forecast. They are normally pretty accurate. 

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Posted
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.

Storm Ciara produced a maximum gust of 64mph here on the Sussex coast with elevation.

Way short of the touted 70mph and 80mph.

Nothing more than a standard winter storm for us.

GFS touted maximum gusts of 72mph for last weekend.

This morning it is calling for 75mph.

So my point is,rather typical that all the talk of Dennis not being as severe wind wise could actually be unwise.

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Posted
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy autumn, hot and sunny summer and thunderstorms all year round.
  • Location: Brongest,Wales

Well latest Met Office video update mentioning max 50mph inland gusts, so clearly all the forecasts and models are not agreeing again just like last week.

Some models this morning are showing much higher winds but they tend to overdo the winds compared to other models. But maybe this time will be different, if we have either incredibly good luck or bad luck  depending on how you see it.

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Posted
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
4 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

Storm Ciara produced a maximum gust of 64mph here on the Sussex coast with elevation.

Way short of the touted 70mph and 80mph.

Nothing more than a standard winter storm for us.

GFS touted maximum gusts of 72mph for last weekend.

This morning it is calling for 75mph.

So my point is,rather typical that all the talk of Dennis not being as severe wind wise could actually be unwise.

I reckon I stand a good chance of the same here in Ipswich.

Ciara only managed a top gust of 57mph and squall lines were tatty and weak at this location.

It certainly wouldn't take much.

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

So a quick look at some of the various models overnight runs to see how the wind-speeds are looking.  Most seems to have upped the intensity from the 18z.

Firstly, looking at the NMM's 'Maximum Gusts' for the next 36 hours.  This is by far the most extreme model with 80-90mph winds for large parts of the country. 

image.thumb.png.885d99c4837c5476071dd4158b3bdcdb.png

The EURO4 is significantly lower, with the majority of the UK only looking at 60mph winds

image.thumb.png.447944e205a1b9b6708b33178fd623a7.png

Arpege is somewhat of a halfway house between the two with much of England and Wales seeing 70mph gusts

image.thumb.png.edf66c5b8fe1b84f1e0fd33cdf648930.png

GFS fairly similar, this is for 7.00am tonight and 7.00am tomorrow morning

image.thumb.png.8e5eb972eb8741796c2f3a13c920099c.png  image.thumb.png.ebc092523b62b6232d1a75960622970e.png

Whilst not currently looking quite as extreme as Storm Ciara, this is still a notable storm, especially given the rainfall predictions. Also, the longevity of 50mph winds across much of the country is quite unusual.   

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Posted
  • Location: Malton, North Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather - any kind!
  • Location: Malton, North Yorkshire

Looking nasty for areas of Yorkshire and Wales due to rain from Dennis.

Also now looks likely most areas will see some very strong winds at times. From County Durham down to north of London, wind gusts could touch on 70mph inland. Later on overnight the southwest could get a pummelling with another round of severe gales transferring east across the southern England.

 

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Edited by Cold Winter
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Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian

Update to warning time line 

feb15surfaceP922.png
WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

#StormDennis brings windy and very wet weather this weekend. Significant risk of flooding especially for western Britain. Gales at times too.

 

feb15floodwarn.png

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Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian

Worth keeping an eye on the central pressure values this weekend for Storm Dennis, potentially one of the deepest on record for the North Atlantic. 

Netweather Radar for current rain, https://www.netweather.tv/live-weather/radar

Flood alerts and warnings from Environment agency for England https://flood-warning-information.service.gov.uk/warnings

Natural resources WAles  https://naturalresources.wales/flooding/check-flood-warnings/?lang=en

SEPA scotland. https://floodline.sepa.org.uk/floodupdates/

This Storm Dennis event is mainly about the flood risk: the heavy rain, snow melt in Scotland, massive swell later in weekend. So surface water flooding and poor conditions on roads, rising river levels as they respond to heavy rain and then coastal issues (mainly in the west again).  All after a very wet week.  

AMBER Warnings for rain today and tomorrow. There will also be very strong winds at times, high gusts. Wind warnings today/Sunday and overnight into Monday as the low centre passes by northern Scotland.  

 

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: very cold frosty days, blizzards, very hot weather, floods, storms
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.

It is pouring with rain here when I went out to shop before. The rain seems to easing off for now.

But it will soon come back no doubt.

Edited by pip22
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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

The storm is showing up very nicely on Sat24:

sat24.png

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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: very cold frosty days, blizzards, very hot weather, floods, storms
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.

Official Weather UK

@Official_WXUK

·

3h

Stunning sat imagery of #StormDennis this morning which underwent #ExplosiveCyclogenesis in the last 24 hours, current pressure ~935mb and still dropping. On course to become one of the deepest North Atlantic low pressure systems on record.

spacer.png

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Most people round here will be wondering what's all the fuss is about. Storm Dennis a little behind schedule conditions deteriorating slowly the rainfall very light and the breeze still a gentle one.

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Posted
  • Location: NW London
  • Weather Preferences: Convective Weather and Snow
  • Location: NW London
1 minute ago, The PIT said:

Most people round here will be wondering what's all the fuss is about. Storm Dennis a little behind schedule conditions deteriorating slowly the rainfall very light and the breeze still a gentle one.

I've had a few gusts reaching 40mph so far, but nothing extreme.

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