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Storm Dennis Atlantic Storm 4


pip22

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Posted
  • Location: Motherwell
  • Weather Preferences: windy
  • Location: Motherwell
1 hour ago, Cold Winter said:

The winds aren’t going to be the main story - 60mph max inland and 70-75mph on the coast is standard winter storm territory. The rain may well prove more significant in flood prone areas simply because of the amount of rain we’ve had all autumn and winter.

True further south but the max wind gusts are forecast to be over 10mph higher through plenty of northern and western areas than they were during Ciara.The met are going for 65mph now which is the highest they've forecast for my area in at least a couple of years.

Edited by Ross90
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Posted
  • Location: North of Falkirk
  • Weather Preferences: North Atlantic cyclogenesis
  • Location: North of Falkirk
5 minutes ago, knocker said:

Rapid cyclogenisis

Cloud Structure In Satellite Images

http://www.eumetrain.org/satmanu/CMs/RaCy/navmenu.php?tab=1&page=1.0.0

 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Dennis just beginning to get it's act together as the trough from the Labrador Straits and the other that has tracked up from the eastern seaboard merge in the south west quadrant of the huge trough already in situ in the Atlantic

gfs-deterministic-natl_wide-vort500_z500-1681600.thumb.png.038b9fdacb9ea52277cf31def95c932e.pnggfs-deterministic-natl_wide-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-1681600.thumb.png.5443d6336ee6b5bdc80a1419fdaeeba6.pngmeteosat-msg_naturalenhncd_overlay-ne_10m_coastline_overlay-ne_10m_admin_0_boundary_lines_land.thumb.jpg.9c39527e21a5c657a497a7b0c4b198b0.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Other than the mentioned amber areas, this Dennis affair looks much less severe than Ciara a week ago.  GFS has peak wind gusts here:

image.thumb.jpg.30bab2af15b96cc707ee102280bdd99b.jpg

A good couple of notches down on last week, and the precipitation through to end Sunday:

image.thumb.jpg.e8f1a05a16db2d35816aa670d7758cfd.jpg

Miserable and wet for most, but the real risks only for those,regions the MO outlined in their warnings some days ago, to be fair.   

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Local forecast having none of the wind still. Rain yes. Gusts to beat 41mph and average speed 17mph

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

 

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
21 minutes ago, Ross90 said:

The gfs has it much weaker in terms of wind than the met are suggesting...

Depends where you're looking. For here Met office max gust 50mph on Monday while the GFS has 60-65 mph quiet widespread across the country from 15:00 hrs Saturday until midnight then the winds move away to the south with 70's in South west possible Sunday morning.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The wind and rain set to drop and clear behind the cold front Sunday afternoon, could well be a nasty squall line on it, for the southern half of the UK. But the position is complex in the north west as Dennis fills and drifts south east to be 951mb just north west of the Hebrides by midnight Monday

PPVJ89.thumb.gif.1d1371213dd7463a15bba65fe207d784.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.921e48719ca443c75c9f55c9f320aec5.gifecmwf-deterministic-uk-gust_kt-1858000.thumb.png.0c1483ba0f5d0a621e1f5abd952c300f.pngecmwf-deterministic-uk-gust_kt-1865200.thumb.png.1158de158b7c9cbe2321536ed2d71d1b.pngecmwf-deterministic-uk-gust_kt-1879600.thumb.png.9cb2d63ae28b9906f650932b56a51979.pngecmwf-deterministic-uk-gust_kt-1894000.thumb.png.06cfd11afa75726df69a3f1f6982b19c.png

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Motherwell
  • Weather Preferences: windy
  • Location: Motherwell
8 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Depends where you're looking. For here Met office max gust 50mph on Monday while the GFS has 60-65 mph quiet widespread across the country from 15:00 hrs Saturday until midnight then the winds move away to the south with 70's in South west possible Sunday morning.

Gfs has max gusts 45-50 mph inland through the central belt, met forecast had 62mph last time i checked.

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

A look at the rainfall falling at the weekend.

The highest points of rainfall look like that they've been highlighted for an amber warning by the Met Office.

rain.thumb.png.a774d58bdf68ada3593c0547c0151df3.pngrain0.thumb.png.f6774f84a2c11ab3e5c3336f36dce582.pngrain1.thumb.png.77a6b5946e52b1bf30ce0c0dd964918c.png

rain2.thumb.png.f0b996127140027fc54e07476a8d76c4.pngrain3.thumb.png.fb2981143c5e6e6d925382e8cdc7c29f.pngrain4.thumb.png.f0254d98bed8037533681ab311c21638.png

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Posted
  • Location: Guildford, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, dry & sunny
  • Location: Guildford, Surrey

Why do people keep downplaying the wind this weekend? Even though weak branches/trees were downed last weekend, squally gusts could occur in different areas/with waterlogged ground and result in damage.

Forecast for the SE is for 12hrs+ 50 mph gusts, peaking around 65 mph inland and over 70 mph on the coast! Storm Ciara was exceptional, but storm Dennis isn't exactly tame! 

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Blackwood SE Wales
  • Location: Blackwood SE Wales

looking at 70mph gusts in Wales... and seeing how the winds were advertised as 70-80mph for last weekend.. and there were a couple of 90mph, I wouldn't take anything for granted.~ Most of our towns are in the valleys, flooding isn't such a concern,. but landslides are and the wind can be funnelled up the valleys increasing strength.. so again.. take nothing for granted.




 

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16 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

Why do people keep downplaying the wind this weekend? Even though weak branches/trees were downed last weekend, squally gusts could occur in different areas/with waterlogged ground and result in damage.

Forecast for the SE is for 12hrs+ 50 mph gusts, peaking around 65 mph inland and over 70 mph on the coast! Storm Ciara was exceptional, but storm Dennis isn't exactly tame! 

 

 

 

It almost comes across as storm fatigue! Two in the space of a week and the attitude can be "oh *** not another one" and rolled eyes. The reality is Dennis could well have more widespread impacts due to the reasons you have mentioned. It's easy to look at figures and quote 'less of x, more of y' but the effects will transfer differently on the ground this time due to Ciara's recent impacts

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Posted
  • Location: CARDIFF
  • Location: CARDIFF
24 minutes ago, ancientsolar said:

looking at 70mph gusts in Wales... and seeing how the winds were advertised as 70-80mph for last weekend.. and there were a couple of 90mph, I wouldn't take anything for granted.~ Most of our towns are in the valleys, flooding isn't such a concern,. but landslides are and the wind can be funnelled up the valleys increasing strength.. so again.. take nothing for granted.




 

I just spoke to Ian and Derek and 120mm is showing on the met office computer and some models are showing 133mm that i have seen.

Ensembles are interesting for your area, and most of UK with the operational being a complete outlier with much lower precipitation than all the other members including the control.

As for the valleys being safe, i would not be so sure, that is a lot of water in short space of time, with a high water table. Your right about landslips that is certainly possible with the increased viscosity. I have just viewed the buoys on my website and 45m waves now West of Ireland , thats some storm.

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Posted
  • Location: Glyn Ceiriog. 197m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow in winter, good sun at other times with appropriate rain.
  • Location: Glyn Ceiriog. 197m ASL
43 minutes ago, ancientsolar said:

looking at 70mph gusts in Wales... and seeing how the winds were advertised as 70-80mph for last weekend.. and there were a couple of 90mph, I wouldn't take anything for granted.~ Most of our towns are in the valleys, flooding isn't such a concern,. but landslides are and the wind can be funnelled up the valleys increasing strength.. so again.. take nothing for granted.




 

In the Ceiriog Valley, our river has burst its banks in two areas following Ciara, tributary streams and water runoff down the hills have caused culvert blockages and subsequent flooding, main road flooding and track erosion, more rain will just refill and cause those problems again, which we really don’t need.  

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Posted
  • Location: CARDIFF
  • Location: CARDIFF
1 hour ago, ancientsolar said:

looking at 70mph gusts in Wales... and seeing how the winds were advertised as 70-80mph for last weekend.. and there were a couple of 90mph, I wouldn't take anything for granted.~ Most of our towns are in the valleys, flooding isn't such a concern,. but landslides are and the wind can be funnelled up the valleys increasing strength.. so again.. take nothing for granted.




 

Not sure what happened to last reply i made to this, time taken etc.

Anyway  i feel flooding may be an issue for the valleys as water table is very high and some estimates are between 120 -133mm of rain in 24 hours.

If we look back at Cumbria floods 2009 the set up is very similar.

Cumbria was November but as then Sea surface temperatures were around 2c above normal, Orographic rainfall and of course intensified due to warm air being dragged in from the South. The fronts are very similar, as is where the centre of Dennis will be Saturday.

Landslips are very high due to viscosity of the ground  so maybe disruption to road and rail.

Blackwood may escape but i think Cynon valley may be hit badly, I suspect South Devon at a similar timescale and Lancashire, Cumbria and West Yorkshire may also see issues. Sunday risk extends to South East England.

I viewed the Buoy reports via my website and 45ft waves West of Ireland are monster seas. Suspect shipping will be avoiding that area.

Here is pressure chart for Cumbria 2009 and one for Dennis 

Screenshot 2020-02-14 at 19.45.36.jpg

Screenshot 2020-02-14 at 20.13.59.jpg

Edited by pyrotech
wrote 45m instead of 45Ft
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
8 minutes ago, pyrotech said:

I viewed the Buoy reports via my website and 45m waves West of Ireland are monster seas. Suspect shipping will be avoiding that area.

Are you sure you're looking at the scale correctly? I cannot find anything that is showing nearly 150ft waves - 45 to 50ft, yes, but not 150.

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